Analysis BBL|10 Player's Price & Break Even Projections by TAILS

[Tails]

Round 3 BE calcs:

- Please point out any gremlins as this is a combined formula / manual process ...
- +/- 1 they should be pretty much right ...

 

[Herbie66]

I don't believe so as he took no part in the match ..

Correct

They are showing Botha as only playing 2 games.

 

[Tails]

Round 2 Top 20 teams:

- Only 3 teams managed to hold their spots ...
- At least 3 SCS members that I know of entered into it this week

 

[Rowsus]

Just looking at price changes, and not the resulting BE's, and looking at any random DGR player, is there a difference in their resulting price, at the end of the DGR if they score:
100, 0
50, 50
0, 100

 

[Sideshow Bob]

Round 3 BE calcs:

- Please point out any gremlins as this is a combined formula / manual process ...
- +/- 1 they should be pretty much right ...

View attachment 23525
View attachment 23526
View attachment 23527

thanks as always, FYI a few from Gold shows

NCN -65
Worral -16
Hatcher -97
Maxwell 29
Khan 162
Weatherald 58

 

[Tails]

thanks as always, FYI a few from Gold shows

NCN -65
Worral -16
Hatcher -97
Maxwell 29
Khan 162
Weatherald 58

Thanks ... I'll look into it ....

Maxy, Khan, NCN it looks like their last game isn't included for some reason .......

Can't explain the others yet though ...

Edit: I'm going to stick with my calcs for now because of the following:
- Weird things have happened before for DGR players in SC
- My predicted price changes were within $1 - 3k which happens early on until the MN settles down
- It might just be a glitch and I'm pretty confident with my calcs ...

 

[Tails]

Just looking at price changes, and not the resulting BE's, and looking at any random DGR player, is there a difference in their resulting price, at the end of the DGR if they score:
100, 0
50, 50
0, 100

Not for the round as all of those scores will be in their 3 game rolling average.

- Obviously that will change for their next game though ...

 

[Rowsus]

Not for the round as all of those scores will be in their 3 game rolling average.

- Obviously that will change for their next game though ...

I thought that might be the case, but II feel better having you confirm it for me. Thanks, @Tails.

 

[Rowsus]

Interesting. They have boosted Maxwell's BE from 29 to 88.
I haven't checked the others yet, but I'm sure there will be other changes!

 

[Beg2Differ]

Interesting. They have boosted Maxwell's BE from 29 to 88.
I haven't checked the others yet, but I'm sure there will be other changes!

NCN also changed from -65 to -3.

 

[Tails]

Interesting. They have boosted Maxwell's BE from 29 to 88.
I haven't checked the others yet, but I'm sure there will be other changes!

The only discrepancies after going through every player are the following ADE and MELS ones ....



I've double and triple checked all of my formulas and can't find anything systemic for them to be out ....
- spent a few hours playing around with various scenarios ...

 

[Woosie]

The only discrepancies after going through every player are the following ADE and MELS ones ....

View attachment 23557

I've double and triple checked all of my formulas and can't find anything systemic for them to be out ....
- spent a few hours playing around with various scenarios ...

So only ones coming from a double / going into a double. And ones going into a bye round - although if that was the case there would be many more 🤔

 

[Tails]

So only ones coming from a double / going into a double. And ones going into a bye round - although if that was the case there would be many more 🤔

Yeah ... so don't really need to be too concerned about the MELS players for now .... as they will have no impact this round and could be fixed before they play the next game ..

- The HOB players seemed to be all fine .. remember that "live" scoring glitch SC had last round ... I do

- So really only need to focus on the ADE players .... cross everything and hope they get it right ...

 

[Tails]

If Worrall has a BE of 8 instead of -57 ... gonna be some melts ... that is a significant difference cash generation wise and a potential season changer ...

 

[Darkie]

If Worrall has a BE of 8 instead of -57 ... gonna be some melts ... that is a significant difference cash generation wise and a potential season changer ...

SC is currently showing -16. I know why we have two different numbers, but having a third well after lockout seems a bit concerning!

 

[Bomber18]

The only discrepancies after going through every player are the following ADE and MELS ones ....

View attachment 23557

I've double and triple checked all of my formulas and can't find anything systemic for them to be out ....
- spent a few hours playing around with various scenarios ...

Siddle now showing 67 on SC Gold.

IIRC last season sometimes the system glitched and took into account the first instead of second game of a DGR. What would Siddle’s BE be if that was the case....?

 

[Goyougoodthing]

Looking at SC BE's, aren't they just projected based on players projected round 3 scores?

 

[Deeman1]

Looking at SC BE's, aren't they just projected based on players projected round 3 scores?

Dunno, but shouldn't be, a BE has always been the score a player needs to maintain current price, nothing to do with projected scores.

 

[Chumpion]

Siddle now showing 67 on SC Gold.

IIRC last season sometimes the system glitched and took into account the first instead of second game of a DGR. What would Siddle’s BE be if that was the case....?

I remember this as well - could it be they are counting the scores as round 1, round 3, round 2, in the rolling average?

 

[Tails]

Siddle now showing 67 on SC Gold.

IIRC last season sometimes the system glitched and took into account the first instead of second game of a DGR. What would Siddle’s BE be if that was the case....?

I went through all of those scenarios .....

- Given that the BE is based off a players current price, last two scores and the MN ....
- There shouldn't be any issues as ADE have only played two games and the order of the scores is irrelevant until the next game has been played

- Different case for MELS players .... NCN has only played 2 games and his BE is correct whilst the others are all out ...