Fingers crossed that hmac makes it back. Like sandilands, he represents value if fit and playing. Having read rowsus' analysis on how rucks perform, I'd be willing to gamble on hmac in spite of his track record of games played. If they get me through until round 7 or 8, with a decent increase, either could be upgraded to whichever rucks are firing.
Rucks Discussion
- Thread starter Impromptu
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I was heavily influenced by Sir Rowsus' article on rucks. I may have misinterpreted his article but my takeaway was that it is very difficult to pick each year's top 2-3 rucks (perhaps excluding Cox during his golden years). Based upon my own analysis the top 2 or 3 rucks by round 10 tend to remain around the top by season's end. So my plan is pick a couple of guys that are significantly discounted in 2014 at the start and look to upgrade. BTW my middle names are 'gutsy' and 'crazy'! LOL
There seems to be a lot of talk about Lobbe and seeing as I go for Port, thought I should chime in... (incidentally are then any other Port supporters on this sight?)
*I offer no stats, only observations*
Port had, for most of last year, 2 main problems:
1. No second key tall forward; and
2. No back up ruckmen.
To get around this we tried the following:
1. Play Butcher as the second tall and use Westhoff as the 2nd ruck;
2. Play Butcher as the second tall and use Trengove as the 2nd ruck;
3. Play Redden as the second tall and 2nd ruck;
4. Play Daniel Stewart as the second tall and 2nd ruck;
None of those worked very well.
We need Westhoff to float all over the ground, we need Trengove in the backline otherwise Jonas ends up on players he shouldn't and Trengove is our best 3rd up spoiler.
Redden and Stewart playing forward destroys our forward pressure and allows the opposition to run it out at will.
We have not recruited anyone who alleviates the problem. Therefore I suspect this year we will again see some combination of options 1, 2 and 3. The first preference will be for Trengove to ruck provided that the oppositions 2nd ruck is not a genuine ruck and the other side only has 1 genuine gorilla forward who Alipate Carlile will play on.
2nd option will be for Westhoff to be the 2nd ruck.
3rd will be to play Redden when the other side has two genuine ruckmen. The sides that may play two genuine ruckmen (I think) are Ess, WC, Gee, GWS, GC, StK and Rich.
Depending on how those sides structure up we may use two genuine ruckmen, I also expect we will play two genuine ruckmen from time to time in order to lighten the load on Lobbe.
If anyone cares, I am picking Lobbe because I expect him to ruck solo for about 15-18 games and to continue what has been a gradual improvement since he was drafted. There is some talk that Redden will play CHF in the SANFL to work on his forward skills but I suspect that is wishful thinking.
*I offer no stats, only observations*
Port had, for most of last year, 2 main problems:
1. No second key tall forward; and
2. No back up ruckmen.
To get around this we tried the following:
1. Play Butcher as the second tall and use Westhoff as the 2nd ruck;
2. Play Butcher as the second tall and use Trengove as the 2nd ruck;
3. Play Redden as the second tall and 2nd ruck;
4. Play Daniel Stewart as the second tall and 2nd ruck;
None of those worked very well.
We need Westhoff to float all over the ground, we need Trengove in the backline otherwise Jonas ends up on players he shouldn't and Trengove is our best 3rd up spoiler.
Redden and Stewart playing forward destroys our forward pressure and allows the opposition to run it out at will.
We have not recruited anyone who alleviates the problem. Therefore I suspect this year we will again see some combination of options 1, 2 and 3. The first preference will be for Trengove to ruck provided that the oppositions 2nd ruck is not a genuine ruck and the other side only has 1 genuine gorilla forward who Alipate Carlile will play on.
2nd option will be for Westhoff to be the 2nd ruck.
3rd will be to play Redden when the other side has two genuine ruckmen. The sides that may play two genuine ruckmen (I think) are Ess, WC, Gee, GWS, GC, StK and Rich.
Depending on how those sides structure up we may use two genuine ruckmen, I also expect we will play two genuine ruckmen from time to time in order to lighten the load on Lobbe.
If anyone cares, I am picking Lobbe because I expect him to ruck solo for about 15-18 games and to continue what has been a gradual improvement since he was drafted. There is some talk that Redden will play CHF in the SANFL to work on his forward skills but I suspect that is wishful thinking.
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Thanks for that Batters. I am really keen on Lobbe too. I picked him up with pick 35 in the SCDL and he has been in my normal supercoach pre-season side almost the whole time. I think the natural and gradual improvement combined with his talent and hunger for the ball, makes him a great option. As Rowsus has said.. "has breakout written all over him"
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Lobbe's an interesting one. From memory he was drafted as a Nick Riewoldt type tall running forward but fell into the Ruckman category in the end so I believe he's still learning his trade and will only improve. Has great aerobic fitness so could really be his year to shine and only helped by the interchange cap.
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Does anyone have a view on Kreuzer? I am considering a Kreuz /Sandi ruck with a view to upgrade Sandi to Goldy after the Bye. Based on RAMP it looks like Kreuz should hold his value through to the Byes better than most of the other $500k+ Rucks and I think he should score quite well as long as he stays injury free ( a big assumption, I know).
Any thoughts on this approach would be appreciated.
Any thoughts on this approach would be appreciated.
Thanks Jay.
I will still keep a close eye on Nic Nat, Sands and HMac. Last year I burned a lot of money on Maric whilst came out well with L'Berger. Likewise, am sure that coaches that picked Goldy from the start in 2013 would have been delighted. I am heavily swayed by Rowsus' superb article on rucks where he showed the unpredictable nature of picking the top rucks each year. Just my personal opinion but my plan for the rucks is start with value, earn some decent $$$ and then upgrade when the moment presents itself.
I will still keep a close eye on Nic Nat, Sands and HMac. Last year I burned a lot of money on Maric whilst came out well with L'Berger. Likewise, am sure that coaches that picked Goldy from the start in 2013 would have been delighted. I am heavily swayed by Rowsus' superb article on rucks where he showed the unpredictable nature of picking the top rucks each year. Just my personal opinion but my plan for the rucks is start with value, earn some decent $$$ and then upgrade when the moment presents itself.
I'm always scared to take Kreuz. His game count is bad, and his average is short of top level. The last 6 years he has played: 20, 22, 13, 12, 20, 16 games. In my mind, it means you can't expect more than around 18 games from him. That devalues his average score by around 6 or 7%, depending on who you can get to replace him in those games. Given we want/expect 110/game from our R1, he needs to score at about 118/game to hold that position. I like him as a player, but don't think he can do it.