GUNS
Cameron Smith
Position(s): HOK
2020 avg.: 79.1
Price: $700,400
Analysis: Since approximately the dawn of time selecting Cameron Smith in your KFC SuperCoach side was a safe way into either the best average at position – or at worst the slot below. This year forecasts to be the year the streak ends. Currently unsigned by the Storm we do not know if Smith will play in 2021 let alone where. If he does remain at Melbourne then it would be a very hard pass thanks to Harry Grant’s return to the club. If, and it’s got to be unlikely at this stage of the pre-season, Smith were to sign somewhere (hello Titans) where he could play a major role, then at best you would wait 6-8 weeks to assess his fitness/price to drop. In short, it’s a big NO to those considering selecting the GOAT to start 2021.
Cameron McInnes
Position(s): 2RF/HOK
2020 avg.: 76.3
Price: $676,200
Analysis: It will shock nobody to read that in 2020 McInnes made the most tackles of any player available at hooker. The St George skipper averaged 49 tackles per game and his season total exceeded the next best on the list (Damien Cook) despite McInnes playing two fewer games. So prolific was his defence that on tackles alone, McInnes would rank sixth at position for base stats. But thanks to spending half the season playing at lock, McInnes also led the position for hit-ups and as a result his base points average (66PPG) was fully 14PPG better than the next best at position. Long story short, McInnes is a very safe investment of your early cash. We’re still uncertain quite where the Dragons will deploy McInnes in 2021 but as a prospective owner I’m not too worried as in 2020 he averaged 73PPG from eight starts at lock and 79.3PPG from 10 starts at hooker. His dual position eligibility is a big plus and in my case I plan to select him at 2RF and should injury strike my gun hooker forcing a trade that would permit me to sell the hooker and either replace him at position or move McInnes up to hooker and buy a 2RF. Flexibility gives you options and that’s key in KFC SuperCoach.
Harry Grant
Position(s): HOK
2020 avg.: 71.5
Price: $633,100
Analysis: Last year was quite the breakout for Grant with the young hooker making the very most of his opportunity on loan to the Wests Tigers and then starring in the final Origin game where he outplayed Damien Cook. Speaking of Cook (convenient when you write your own segues isn’t it?), Grant put up very Cook-like figures in 2020 with a very solid base augmented by great creative stats outstripping Cook in game averages for offloads, linebreaks, linebreak assists, tries and try assists. Back at the Storm for 2021, Grant faces stiffer competition for minutes in the form of Kiwi Test rake Brandon Smith. He has enough attacking flair to remain SC relevant even in a timeshare arrangement but Smith’s shadow is enough to take some gloss off him as a round one prospect.
Damien Cook
Position(s): HOK
2020 avg.: 70.1
Price: $621,000
Analysis: For the second consecutive year Damien Cook’s KFC SuperCoach output declined – and the dip was a big one this time – with Cook losing the best part of 6PPG between 2019 and 2020. Perversely that dip has me quite confident about starting with Cook in 2021. With a reliable base of 50PPG and consistent tackle bust and linebreak/assist production then outside of the odd shocker Cook is a very safe 60+ point producer. In fact Cook’s percentage of games in which he scored 60+ points increased in 2020 even as his overall average declined.
Api Koroisau
Position(s): HOK
2020 avg.: 66.3
Price: $587,300
Analysis: After moving from his 2019 job-share arrangement at Manly in 2019 (averaging 36PPG), Koroisau made the hooking role at the Panthers his own and became a KFC SuperCoach stud in the process. As a result, Api is no bargain to start 2021. However, there is still plenty of appeal at the price and you could make the argument he is ‘unders’. Injury/resting hit Api late in 2020 as the Panthers, then assured of a top-two spot, protected him somewhat. If you remove his final four games from his average, Koroisau’s ‘true’ average was 72.7PPG.
MIDRANGERS
Kurt Mann
Position(s): HOK|5/8
2020 avg.: 64.4
Price: $570,200
Analysis: Mann was outstanding in 2020 playing 5/8 for the first 12 rounds and then filling in at hooker to close the season after injury struck down no fewer than three Newcastle number nines. However, first choice hooker Jayden Brailey should be back by round one and utility Connor Watson is close too. Barring another run of injuries Mann won’t play hooker in 2021. His preferred position is number six, and despite being very impressive there in 2020,
once Blake Green returns from injury there is a very real chance Mann is, at best, on the interchange bench. Too much danger for mine especially at this price.
Tom Starling
Position(s): HOK
2020 avg.: 60.9
Price: $539,600
Analysis: Tom Starling announced himself as a genuine NRL player in 2020. The diminutive rake had to wait until round 10 before he got on the field via the interchange bench (due to Josh Hodgson injuring his knee in round nine) but he quickly established himself as a key player for the Raiders and he started four of the final five regular season games playing the full 80 minutes in round 20 and producing a 157 point masterclass in the process. Regular hooker and co-captain Hodgson is slated to return in round one and while Hodgson is usually an 80-minute man Starling’s superb form should see him claim a spot on the bench. However, no bench hooker is worth $540K and Starling will only provide value should Hodgson go down injured again.
Reece Robson
Position(s): HOK
2020 avg.: 55.5
Price: $491,700
Reuben Cotter
Position(s): HOK
2020 avg.: 40.2
Price: $356,100
Analysis: If Robson had a clear shot at being an 80-minute hooker for the Cowboys then he would he would carry a strong ‘Buy’ recommendation from me. After starting off the bench behind Jake Granville, Robson made the very most of the opportunity provided when Granville was injured and in the six games he started and played 80 minutes he averaged just under 80PPG. But Granville is back, and there’s the matter of Reuben Cotter too. Cotter averaged just under 60PPG and 79.2MPG over the final five rounds when he was handed the starting role. In short, the Cowboys have too many mouths to feed at hooker and unless injury strikes none of them have SC value. But, if either of the two men above look set for a prolonged stint as 80-minute men then both are worth consideration.
Brandon Smith
Position(s): 2RF/HOK
2020 avg.: 55.3
Price: $489,900
Analysis: The incumbent Kiwi Test hooker, Smith (of the Brandon variety) started nine games at hooker for the Storm in 2020 and averaged a rather impressive 64.8PPG while doing so. As mentioned above, Melbourne’s 2020 starting hooker Smith (of the Cameron variety) is currently unsigned by the Storm. If the absence of Cameron meant the promotion of Brandon then ’B’ would be a ‘Buy’ at the price. However, things are not quite so linear because Harry Grant is back at the Storm and therefore, B Smith is more likely to spend time as a super sub moving between backrow and hooker but never nailing down enough time at either position to be worth the price.
Reed Mahoney
Position(s): HOK
2020 avg.: 54.0
Price: $478,800
Analysis: A tackling machine, Mahoney does not have enough attacking elements to his game to make him SC relevant for Classic. I’ve really only included him here so I could say he makes some sense as a Draft target late as his quality base makes him a reliable option for those who missed a gun hooker in an early round.
Ben Hunt
Position(s): HOK/HFB
2020 avg.: 51.2
Price: $453,200
Analysis: Not really worth a selection at hooker, Hunt does have some appeal as a pick at HFB should he secure the starting hooker role at the Dragons. Hunt averaged 59.5PPG (42BPPG) across the eight games he started at hooker in 2020. More on him in the halfback preview.
Josh Hodgson
Position(s): HOK
2020 avg.: 42.2
Price: $374,000
Analysis: If it were not for the aforementioned rise of Tom Starling at the Raiders then I would be quite tempted by Hodgson at this price. The Canberra co-captain is an 80-minute player more than capable of pumping out a solid 55PPG. However, he is coming back from yet another knee injury AND Starling will likely poach minutes. One to watch but he is not getting any younger and the injury history/competition for minutes is a worry.
Jayden Brailey
Position(s): HOK
2020 avg.: 57.5
Price: $356,600
Analysis: Brailey is another mid-ranger worth some consideration as his injury affected season sees him start 2021 at a discount to both his historic average and his (admittedly limited) 2020 output. Priced at a smidgen better than a 40PPG average I would expect Brailey to average 10-15PPG better than that once he resumes his 80-minute role. Guns and cheapies is the tried and true method of winning at KFC SuperCoach but value is value and should the pre-season indicate Brailey is set to play big minutes in 2021 then I will be very tempted.
