Opinion SC 2021: Rate My Team

[BIGB0Y]

I’m pretty happy with this team.
I like the sounds of Milera going in to the midfield more often, with Adelaide coming out and saying there going to be much more attacking.
Happy with the midfield I think Simpkin can be a 105+ player easily. would love to have Merrett in there but can not find the coin.
Rucks are a no brainer for me VC and C every week.
Forward line is the tricky one, not much value in the premo’s as I feel that means there will be a few players who are ready to step up into premo status as a forward . I hope that will be de goey and rozee, training with the mids they both have the potential to ave 95-100. I think that will make them a top8 forward this year.

 

[BigRuss]

Here’s where I am as we move into February. Geez footy season has come round quick this year.

Laird, Whitfield, Doc, Harmes, Jones, Chapman (Gould, Worrell)

Neale, Oliver, Macrae, Kelly, Cripps, Powell, Dow, Sharp (Honey, Williams, Valente)

Grundy, Preuss (Treacy)

Dunkley, Marshall, Heeney, Zeibell, Daniher, Cockatoo (Bergman, Rowe)

Rookie spend is a little bit down but there’s not much to be done about that at this time of the year.

I’m flip flopping on Harmes & Kelly vs Stewart & Taranto as the main pivot pair. I think Harmes is a good shot at 90 playing as a mid again and the deeper I look into Taranto, the less enamoured I become.

I havent touched my forwards for quite a while which is usually where most on my tinkering is done. With Danger unlikely there doesn’t seem that many viable picks.

I’m surprised there hasn’t been more of a debate between Preuss & Hickey to be honest, don’t think it’s as clear cut as we first believed.

 

[GrainFedBeef]

Hello



View attachment 25611

Looks a good side, decent depth in all lines.

McInereney - haven't seen the post, why the love here. do we think he will outgun Grundy or do you think Grundy is not underpriced, otherwise a trade will be needed.

My concern with this and Atkins selection is whilst they may be high probability to make you money, will they make $150k given you will need to compensate for a trade that will be needed.

Atkins needs to go closer to 80 ave or a spike score to make the money. If Powell plays, downgrading Atkins to him may be better move.

Hopeful Gould plays and we don't need to select DGB to save some cash.

Between Lloyd (to a $500-550k defender) DGB and Atkins there is the optionality to get McIn to Grundy if you wanted to.

Will be interesting to see if going a cheaper ruck, whether it was Gawn or Grundy who should have been skipped. I don't buy into the theory a player is expensive and hard to get to, we make $2.5-3m, everyone is gettable, the risk is the first 6 rounds when cash cows are maturing.

 

[mpollock]

Hello

Here is my latest iteration of my team.

I must point out that I had not really considered McInerney as R2 (thanks to Manikato).

Overall it is a typical GnR, with high end rookies in the midfield and an 'El Cheapo' forwards.

• Atkins recruited to the Suns should average @ 75
  • https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/pu-gold-coast-suns--rory-atkins
• Maginness to hopefully find a spot in the Hawthorn midfield (replacement for Tom Scully)

I have included the 'Human Meatball', as I think he is good value and his ceiling is quite high, at worse he is a stepping stone to a Oliver type.

• https://www.richmondfc.com.au/news/853182/2021-pre-season-update
• Return to full length quarters will improve Dion scoring (164 pts - 2019 Preliminary Final)
  • https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/ft_match_statistics?mid=9925

It would be appreciated for any critique.

View attachment 25611

I think Downie will take Scully’s spot ...

 

[Manikato1]

McInereney - haven't seen the post, why the love here. do we think he will outgun Grundy or do you think Grundy is not underpriced, otherwise a trade will be needed.

I won't comment on TT choice of Gawn and Big O as each team is different. I have Grundy and Big O. My thinking on Big O was

Coming into his 4th season and played over 50 games now with an ave of 82 last season and a HS of 132.
English went 82 to 102 in similar circumstances and Marshall also shows 3rd/4th year rucks can improve sharply
He will be rucking to a great midfield
He only plays one of the the top six rucks(by price) in the first 11 rounds.
There is less downside than other "value" ruck options eg Preuss.

Whether I keep him or move him up to Gawn etc will depend on how he is scoring. I see Gawn at around 130. For me to get him in means dropping a player to a rookie which will cost me at least 30 points. So for now Big O works for me and the set up I have.

But anything could happen between now an Rd 1!

 

[Juzzo]

Here’s where I am as we move into February. Geez footy season has come round quick this year.

Laird, Whitfield, Doc, Harmes, Jones, Chapman (Gould, Worrell)

Neale, Oliver, Macrae, Kelly, Cripps, Powell, Dow, Sharp (Honey, Williams, Valente)

Grundy, Preuss (Treacy)

Dunkley, Marshall, Heeney, Zeibell, Daniher, Cockatoo (Bergman, Rowe)

Rookie spend is a little bit down but there’s not much to be done about that at this time of the year.

I’m flip flopping on Harmes & Kelly vs Stewart & Taranto as the main pivot pair. I think Harmes is a good shot at 90 playing as a mid again and the deeper I look into Taranto, the less enamoured I become.

I havent touched my forwards for quite a while which is usually where most on my tinkering is done. With Danger unlikely there doesn’t seem that many viable picks.

I’m surprised there hasn’t been more of a debate between Preuss & Hickey to be honest, don’t think it’s as clear cut as we first believed.

I had Dunkley locked in forward line till I remembered they have yet another gun mid Treloar. Worried about that at all?

 

[freowho]

I had Dunkley locked in forward line till I remembered they have yet another gun mid Treloar. Worried about that at all?

Even as a 5th choice mid Dunkley scores well enough to be a forward keeper. And there is a chance he goes up in the pecking order and scores better than a forward keeper. The main question is games played, but he has the ability to really twist the knife on those who don't have him.

 

[Toothless Tigers]

Looks a good side, decent depth in all lines.

McInereney - haven't seen the post, why the love here. do we think he will outgun Grundy or do you think Grundy is not underpriced, otherwise a trade will be needed.

My concern with this and Atkins selection is whilst they may be high probability to make you money, will they make $150k given you will need to compensate for a trade that will be needed.

Atkins needs to go closer to 80 ave or a spike score to make the money. If Powell plays, downgrading Atkins to him may be better move.

Hopeful Gould plays and we don't need to select DGB to save some cash.

Between Lloyd (to a $500-550k defender) DGB and Atkins there is the optionality to get McIn to Grundy if you wanted to.

Will be interesting to see if going a cheaper ruck, whether it was Gawn or Grundy who should have been skipped. I don't buy into the theory a player is expensive and hard to get to, we make $2.5-3m, everyone is gettable, the risk is the first 6 rounds when cash cows are maturing.

McInereney - haven't seen the post, why the love here. do we think he will outgun Grundy or do you think Grundy is not underpriced, otherwise a trade will be needed.

I won't comment on TT choice of Gawn and Big O as each team is different. I have Grundy and Big O. My thinking on Big O was

Coming into his 4th season and played over 50 games now with an ave of 82 last season and a HS of 132.
English went 82 to 102 in similar circumstances and Marshall also shows 3rd/4th year rucks can improve sharply
He will be rucking to a great midfield
He only plays one of the the top six rucks(by price) in the first 11 rounds.
There is less downside than other "value" ruck options eg Preuss.

Whether I keep him or move him up to Gawn etc will depend on how he is scoring. I see Gawn at around 130. For me to get him in means dropping a player to a rookie which will cost me at least 30 points. So for now Big O works for me and the set up I have.

But anything could happen between now an Rd 1!

I had Grundy last year and he seemed to go off the boil once the contact was signed, I know he is under-priced by 50K this year.

The $204,800 saving allows me to upgrade a rookie midfielder to Prestia who I believe will average 100 ppg which is a 30 - 40 point improve on a rookie and is best 22.

Oscar McInerney had 3 games 120+ points and I expect that to improve

• Stefan Martin traded to Bulldogs
• Longer Quarters
• 4th Year improvement
• Friendly Fixture from a Ruck perspective
• $443,400, is under-priced if you factor in the above points

Statistics from Season 2020:

 

[Toothless Tigers]

My concern with this and Atkins selection is whilst they may be high probability to make you money, will they make $150k given you will need to compensate for a trade that will be needed.

Atkins needs to go closer to 80 ave or a spike score to make the money. If Powell plays, downgrading Atkins to him may be better move.

I believe he will average closer to 80 as he was near that at the Crows if you discount 2020.

Thank you to everyone for taking time to reply.

 

[PC]

For what it is worth at end Jan -

B: Seagull, Whitfield, Riddler, Williams, DGB, Jones, (Wehr, Highmore)
M: Neale, Oliver, Laird, Dusty, Hatley, Phillips, Powell, Downie, (RCD, Gulden, Davies)
R: Gawn, Grundy, (Treacy)
F: Dunks, Marshall, Zieball, Impey, Cocka, Rowe, (Macrae F, Durdin)

Pretty obvious I have no bloody idea about the mids...

 

[Ironhawk]

With regards to the McInerney discussion, I don't mind the selection. I probably prefer him as a stop gap option to Preuss in terms of scoring ability, but he won't make as much cash. Just set and forget Gawn/Grundy though and move on. I used way too many trades on rucks last year, lucky we were given so many extras - we don't have that luxury this year.

 

[SC Pup]

Even as a 5th choice mid Dunkley scores well enough to be a forward keeper. And there is a chance he goes up in the pecking order and scores better than a forward keeper. The main question is games played, but he has the ability to really twist the knife on those who don't have him.

In 2019 when he wasn't playing ruck Dunkley was the #3 ranked SC Mid for Total Points & #6 for Average.

 

[OnTopBar]

In 2019 when he wasn't playing ruck Dunkley was the #3 ranked SC Mid for Total Points & #6 for Average.

And I think that it was by round 7 in '19 that Bevo unleashed him.

 

[OnTopBar]

And I think that it was by round 7 in '19 that Bevo unleashed him.

Yeah, just had look and he averaged 86 up to round 6 and 126 thereafter with 4 scores over 150, including a 202.

 

[Connoisseur]

And I think that it was by round 7 in '19 that Bevo unleashed him.

Post Bye 2018: 111.3 from 10
Post Bye 2018-RD23 2019: 114.84 from 32 ( 3/32 below 80, 11/32 below 100, 11/32 120+)
Post Bye 2018-RD18 2020: 112.14 from 43 (4/43 below 80, 17/43 below 100, 14/43 120+)

Including finals, Dunkley recorded 16 or less disposals in 4 of 12 matches in 2020.
RD3= 16 Disposals for 128SC
RD14= 13 Disposals for 96SC
RD18= 15 Disposals for 87SC
Elimination Final= 13 Disposals for 98SC

Since Post Bye 2018= 30/43 matches with 20 or more disposals for an average of 113.07 when recording 20 or more.

 

[freowho]

Re Dunkley: Even with games missed last year I think you just have to chase the points and if it goes pear shaped so be it. If Fyfe or Kelly go well in the midfield you probably still have another mid who is only 5 points behind. But if Dunkley goes well in the forward line you're giving up 20 points each week if you don't have him. The loss is much greater.

 

[wogitalia]

Dunkley is a hard case. Was already pushed out of the midfield mostly last year by Smith, Treloar is a pure midfielder who will also put pressure on the spot but the underrated change is Martin for mine, that 2nd ruck role, as memeworthy as it was, was also fantasy gold as it basically gave him a genuine midfield role for that 20% or so of the game he was in it.

Think he's still a keeper level forward but wouldn't surprise me at all if he regressed back towards the 95 of 2018. That said, his upside is huge and he's only ever an injury or two from being a 120 type and Treloar and Libba are both pretty injury prone as well to add to that.

Think he's a pick who is probably 20% crushing defeat, 30% breaks even and 50% will be available a decent amount cheaper (that role is just hard to score every week). Of course that 20% crushing defeat chance is a pretty big pull given none of the other forwards really offer it (Marshall a Ryder injury away and Danger in the right role) and realistically I think he's in the 90% range of being a keeper (maybe lower if injury is factored in).

 

[pizza safety]

Dunkley is a hard case. Was already pushed out of the midfield mostly last year by Smith, Treloar is a pure midfielder who will also put pressure on the spot but the underrated change is Martin for mine, that 2nd ruck role, as memeworthy as it was, was also fantasy gold as it basically gave him a genuine midfield role for that 20% or so of the game he was in it.

Think he's still a keeper level forward but wouldn't surprise me at all if he regressed back towards the 95 of 2018. That said, his upside is huge and he's only ever an injury or two from being a 120 type and Treloar and Libba are both pretty injury prone as well to add to that.

Think he's a pick who is probably 20% crushing defeat, 30% breaks even and 50% will be available a decent amount cheaper (that role is just hard to score every week). Of course that 20% crushing defeat chance is a pretty big pull given none of the other forwards really offer it (Marshall a Ryder injury away and Danger in the right role) and realistically I think he's in the 90% range of being a keeper (maybe lower if injury is factored in).

I think Treloar is definitely taking midfield minutes away from the Dogs midfielders, the question is just which mids he's going to take the minutes from.

I really think that his arrival is going to push Macrae more often to the wing, where he has played at stages over the past few seasons.

Even with Treloar's arrival there is still a very very good chance that Dunkley gets more midfield time than he did last year, based on how little midfield time he got after his return from injury and the room for that to increase. Do they try to appease him after he contemplated leaving and given how much they have shown they rate him after not trading him? it's very possible that they do and Beveridge apparently loves him as a player.

It could also be that Bailey Smith plays more time at half-forward and Bont in the forward line as a target. Even Libba could be playing more forward time, hard to know, but it's all possible.

Although Treloar's arrival does cause some concern and stops Dunkley from being a total lock, given how low his midfield minutes were after his return from injury last year, I think it's pretty easy to see his midfield time increase and him being a much better player this season.

 

[wogitalia]

I think Treloar is definitely taking midfield minutes away from the Dogs midfielders, the question is just which mids he's going to take the minutes from.

I really think that his arrival is going to push Macrae more often to the wing, where he has played at stages over the past few seasons.

Even with Treloar's arrival there is still a very very good chance that Dunkley gets more midfield time than he did last year, based on how little midfield time he got after his return from injury and the room for that to increase. Do they try to appease him after he contemplated leaving and given how much they have shown they rate him after not trading him? it's very possible that they do and Beveridge apparently loves him as a player.

It could also be that Bailey Smith plays more time at half-forward and Bont in the forward line as a target. Even Libba could be playing more forward time, hard to know, but it's all possible.

Although Treloar's arrival does cause some concern and stops Dunkley from being a total lock, given how low his midfield minutes were after his return from injury last year, I think it's pretty easy to see his midfield time increase and him being a much better player this season.

Yep he's got a lot of moving parts. The hardest one is trying to apply any logic to anything that Bevo does, he's one of the biggest "play them out of position as much as possible" coaches of the past few years and the better they are in a position the more determined he seems to be to not play them there.

My biggest worry was Bont was so good after they ditched the stupid forward role crap at the same time that Dunkley fell mostly out of the midfield rotation. Reckon that Bevo is coaching for his career this year and I don't think even he is illogical enough to keep wasting Bont as an ordinary forward. Bad feeling that Dunkley has inherited that role.

The other big concern with Dunkley is he's the worst of the group as a midfielder when it comes to creativity and ball use and he's also the best of the group as a forward option. That's a bad combination when midfield minutes are so important to what he does from a fantasy perspective.

Hopefully they go in absolutely full strength for the preseason game and we get any inkling of what his role is going to be. In the right role he's the top forward, in any other role he's probably still a keeper level guy but he's also probably overpriced.

 

[Leroy]

I like the chat on Dunkley. I have him at F1 for now, because he didn't play midfield all that much last year and still managed to average 104. Surely worst case he is high 90s, which is easily forward keeper territory?

The main question is - if I'm looking for that guaranteed lock for F1 to de-risk the line and deliver a 100 average, who do you replace him with? I don't have the $$$ for Dangerfield, Hawkins could do anything, Sidebottom is coming off a big spike and is 30. Almost has to be Dusty... but Dunkley just feels like he has more upside.