Opinion SC 2021: Rate My Team

[Bomber18]

I don't think the price rise is so much the reason to start him, but rather his potential ability to score in the 115+ range without having much downside as a pick and where that leaves you if you start without him. I don't think his floor is as low as 90 anymore but probably 95-105. It's unlikely that anyone will score at the level he is capable of in the forward line bar Danger and he has had a very interrupted preseason (Marshall could be another if Ryder goes down or isn't at the level anymore). He has shown the potential to be an absolute pig.

I know coach's don't usually bow down to where a player wants to play but it would make a fair bit of sense in this instant given that he is legitimately Bevo's favourite player and the fact they might lose him soon if they don't play him in the middle.

I think what will happen at the dogs this year is that Treloar, Bont and Dunkley will be the midfielders with the most CBA's, Libba will spend more time forward and Macrae/Bailey Smith will spend more time on the wing and at half forward.

Agree re Dunkley’s ceiling when released but the counter is that his ceiling is capped more in that 105 range at the Doggies with so many mouths to feed. If they do line up like you have suggested in preseason (ie Macrae is the one that suffers), I think I’d definitely jump on Dunkley though. I think Macrae is far too good to keep out of the center for too long though. Surely that’s a move that’s been trialed and failed in past seasons. Their lineup in the one and only preseason game will be interesting to watch.

Not sure I quite agree on his floor/downside risk. I think it could still be sub 95 in a mostly fwd type role. I think someone mentioned he only averaged 86 in a year where he started the year playing more forward. Last year’s numbers seem unreliable given Dunkley played so much ruck (I think surely SMartin steps in this season...?).

Overall, I don’t feel he is a compelling starting selection on current information at 560k. If we hear something more definitive before the season I will start but I think otherwise I’m happy to observe his position in the early rounds before committing.

 

[wogitalia]

Figured I'd throw up my latest draft, Ben Brown forced a lot of changes and I can't say I love this mix. For me I'd like only Marshall as a premium forward and would like to get Doch, Daniels, Ridley or Williams down back as well. Rookies will determine my structure most likely now that Brown is down.

Backs

Laird - Sensational finish to last year and midfield role with his sloot skills has huge upside. Worst case he's ball park fair priced as a defender but I think they've got enough kids coming through to permanise his move.

Whitfield - Upside for mine, concussion game, shorter quarters, scoring history. He's capable of 115+.

Stewart - I think there is little difference between Ridley, Daniel and Stewart, so I've gone the cheapest. Collision injury dropping his price. 105 would be his ceiling though, which is lower than Doch, who is cheaper...

Rookies - Place holding only. Average price of ~140k to allow flexibility.

I want 4 premiums here but making a more balanced structure.

Mids

Neale - Overpriced and I think he cops some tags and probably midfield balance at Brisbane... but durable and I'm designing around trying to maximise that and I think he's top 10. Essentially putting a trade on credit.

Steele - Discussed elsewhere, think he can push higher or sustain. Don't like the Dogs group as starters, everyone below Oliver has risks.

Petracca - Same same, been durable, has upside for mine with another year in the system. He's got that Danger first couple of years at Cats potential for mine. Warning to all... I had him breaking out for like 3 seasons before giving up on him LY!

Kelly - Goes against the durability but Fyfe and Mitchell aren't any better right now and they're the other names that slot in here. Basically that deadly word of upside and reasonable price.

Cripps - Locked at this point, too risky to not pick.

Rookies - Same as above, ~140k average is all they represent.

Rucks

Thoughts in ruck thread are all. I haven't ruled Preuss out at this point but I'm not far off it.

Forwards

Marshall - Ruck coverage, think he's overpriced with Ryder and underpriced without. Ryder hasn't been durable generally though. Should push the top 6 though.

Zorko - Started last year underdone and it showed. No idea on his preseason but he's the best value of the forward group to me and had been durable until last year. Calf at his age scares me though, don't get me wrong but haven't seen him mentioned much and he's been 105+ in 3 of the 4 seasons prior to last year. 105 over the last 12 after having a bit of a rest.

Ziebell - Like him for 90+ with potential to push 100 and be a keeper. At his price that's all I need.

Daniher - Expensive rookie, durability cancels job security but proven scoring history and potential to have huge games.

Rookies - Same deal, bit cheaper than other lines but just numbers for now.

Rookies will dictate my structure, I'm hoping for plenty of forward options to facilitate an extra back premium that I like.

Lot of names are still on my radar but I actually think I'm more settled this year than I have been for years, I feel like I've basically got 5 premiums down back, 3 down forward and about 8 in the mids to fill roughly 3-4, 1-2 and 4-5 slots.

 

[pizza safety]

Agree re Dunkley’s ceiling when released but the counter is that his ceiling is capped more in that 105 range at the Doggies with so many mouths to feed. If they do line up like you have suggested in preseason (ie Macrae is the one that suffers), I think I’d definitely jump on Dunkley though. I think Macrae is far too good to keep out of the center for too long though. Surely that’s a move that’s been trialed and failed in past seasons. Their lineup in the one and only preseason game will be interesting to watch.

Not sure I quite agree on his floor/downside risk. I think it could still be sub 95 in a mostly fwd type role. I think someone mentioned he only averaged 86 in a year where he started the year playing more forward. Last year’s numbers seem unreliable given Dunkley played so much ruck (I think surely SMartin steps in this season...?).

Overall, I don’t feel he is a compelling starting selection on current information at 560k. If we hear something more definitive before the season I will start but I think otherwise I’m happy to observe his position in the early rounds before committing.

Do you say that his ceiling is capped at 105 because you don't think he can play more midfield time than he did last year, where he played 39% of centre bounces, or do you expect regression to also occur, or do you think he was scaled up? or do you think he'll be kept even further away from the midfield by Treloar (with point sharing also hurting him) https://dreamteamtalk.com/2020/10/04/centre-bounce-attendances-2020/

To me there's a better case that his floor is around 105, rather than his ceiling. I don't think his floor is that high either, probably high 90's, but his ceiling for me is over 120.

I don't think the ruck thing is very relevant as he wasn't better in the games where he had more ruck attendances. If anything he's probably helped by not being asked to play the same role again. There were only 5 games where he was in 7+ ruck contests. In those games he scored 90 vs Port (7 contests), 88 vs the Crows (30 contests), 106 vs the Dees (24 contests) and 96 vs Geelong (26 contests). He only had one other game with over 2 ruck contests and that was against the eagles where he had 4 and scored 151. https://www.afl.com.au/stats/stats-pro#/Discover/CD_I993834/Dunkley-Josh. In the end he had a 95 average across 4 games with a chunk of ruck time, 96.66 in the 3 games with the most ruck time, and an average of 107.8 in the 5 games after coming back from injury where had 4 or less ruck contests.

I agree he's not a total lock as there are concerns over role and how well he will score in such a stacked midfield, I just see the risk is he's scoring 96-97 at worst and he will score over 120 at best, so I disagree with the parameters of who he can be.

 

[Bomber18]

Do you say that his ceiling is capped at 105 because you don't think he can play more midfield time than he did last year, where he played 39% of centre bounces, or do you expect regression to also occur, or do you think he was scaled up? or do you think he'll be kept even further away from the midfield by Treloar (with point sharing also hurting him) https://dreamteamtalk.com/2020/10/04/centre-bounce-attendances-2020/

To me there's a better case that his floor is around 105, rather than his ceiling. I don't think his floor is that high either, probably high 90's, but his ceiling for me is over 120.

I don't think the ruck thing is very relevant as he wasn't better in the games where he had more ruck attendances. If anything he's probably helped by not being asked to play the same role again. There were only 5 games where he was in 7+ ruck contests. In those games he scored 90 vs Port (7 contests), 88 vs the Crows (30 contests), 106 vs the Dees (24 contests) and 96 vs Geelong (26 contests). He only had one other game with over 2 ruck contests and that was against the eagles where he had 4 and scored 151. https://www.afl.com.au/stats/stats-pro#/Discover/CD_I993834/Dunkley-Josh. In the end he had a 95 average across 4 games with a chunk of ruck time, 96.66 in the 3 games with the most ruck time, and an average of 107.8 in the 5 games after coming back from injury where had 4 or less ruck contests.

I agree he's not a total lock as there are concerns over role and how well he will score in such a stacked midfield, I just see the risk is he's scoring 96-97 at worst and he will score over 120 at best, so I disagree with the parameters of who he can be.

Yeah it’s the first one for me. I get that he indeed can hit 115 (done it before) but it was in a proper mid role (at least for 2/3 of that season). Backend of 2020, his CBAs were down with Libba also fully fit and playing. %CBA seems to have been closer to 25% post return from injury with a few of those as a ruck. Add Treloar to the mix now too.

I think at this stage, I haven’t got enough info to suggest Dunkley is the one that will shoot up to 70%+ CBAs and inside mid time. Too many question marks for me at this stage so a wait and see approach is where I’m leaning.

 

[pizza safety]

Yeah it’s the first one for me. I get that he indeed can hit 115 (done it before) but it was in a proper mid role (at least for 2/3 of that season). Backend of 2020, his CBAs were down with Libba also fully fit and playing. %CBA seems to have been closer to 25% post return from injury with a few of those as a ruck. Add Treloar to the mix now too.

I think at this stage, I haven’t got enough info to suggest Dunkley is the one that will shoot up to 70%+ CBAs and inside mid time. Too many question marks for me at this stage so a wait and see approach is where I’m leaning.

I understand the skepticism of him not getting midfield time next year with Treloar arriving and what happened last year, but I just see him being given a lot more inside mid time than he got in 2020. I think given how much they rate him as a club, and given the players unanimously said he was the coach's favourite player in one of those short interviews last year, he is going to get midfield time to make him happy and want to stay at the club. They boldly said they think he's one of their best players in the trade period and they know he tried to leave because he wanted increased midfield time. He might not go back to the amount of mid time he got in the last 16 games of 2019, where he averaged 128 in that span, but I see a significant increase happening.

When asked how Treloar's arrival would affect them Beveridge said "we have guys who can play forward and wing", that to me was a reference to Smith and Macrae if anyone at all. Macrae is a great mid, but I'm also not sure he makes them better than Dunkley/Bont/Treloar would together at stoppages. He's good inside and outside of the contest. I do think Dunkley has a good chance of becoming one of the best players in the league and I think this year will be a step in that direction. You can't underestimate what he can do as an inside player and there's every chance he does that this year.

Interestingly he really didn't get much CBA's in the games where he played ruck, in the 3 games I mentioned where he did a significant amount of rucking he attended 25% (crows), 9% (dees) and 0% (cats) of centre bounces. From what I can tell the ruck work only dragged him down in general.

On another note you were more or less spot on about Dunkley last season, he was worth waiting to look at rather than starting (I followed your advice and it helped), as are most players who suddenly emerge in a single season as top tier scorers.

 

[Erek22]

I understand the skepticism of him not getting midfield time next year with Treloar arriving and what happened last year, but I just see him being given a lot more inside mid time than he got in 2020. I think given how much they rate him as a club, and given the players unanimously said he was the coach's favourite player in one of those short interviews last year, he is going to get midfield time to make him happy and want to stay at the club. They boldly said they think he's one of their best players in the trade period and they know he tried to leave because he wanted increased midfield time. He might not go back to the amount of mid time he got in the last 16 games of 2019, where he averaged 128 in that span, but I see a significant increase happening.

When asked how Treloar's arrival would affect them Beveridge said "we have guys who can play forward and wing", that to me was a reference to Smith and Macrae if anyone at all. Macrae is a great mid, but I'm also not sure he makes them better than Dunkley/Bont/Treloar would together at stoppages. He's good inside and outside of the contest. I do think Dunkley has a good chance of becoming one of the best players in the league and I think this year will be a step in that direction. You can't underestimate what he can do as an inside player and there's every chance he does that this year.

Interestingly he really didn't get much CBA's in the games where he played ruck, in the 3 games I mentioned where he did a significant amount of rucking he attended 25% (crows), 9% (dees) and 0% (cats) of centre bounces. From what I can tell the ruck work only dragged him down in general.

On another note you were more or less spot on about Dunkley last season, he was worth waiting to look at rather than starting (I followed your advice and it helped), as are most players who suddenly emerge in a single season as top tier scorers.

I would also hope with Stefan Martin there he wouldn't need to Ruck again....but it is Bevo...

 

[pizza safety]

I would also hope with Stefan Martin there he wouldn't need to Ruck again....but it is Bevo...

Yeah you never know with a guy who clearly sees himself as the Salvador Dali of football coach's, I'm still waiting for the day Caleb Daniel is thrown into the ruck.

The thinking will be he will bite the ruckman's knee caps and the cameras won't pick it up because Daniel is out of frame. Bevo AKA "Dali" will think he's transcended AFL space-time.

 

[50 shades of Wade]

 

[Shannon]

View attachment 25798

How many/who of these players do you view as Keepers/ Premiums? Personally, I think you need to have at least 11 at a minimum that you expect to keep (except for injury) for the year.

Buddy injured again, unlikely for round 1 I believe.

Witherden - with limited practice games it is hard to get a gauge on his exact role.

WCE have so many half backs - Hurn/Shep/ Duggan (maybe mid this year)/ Cole/Rotham with Gov/Barrass in the key posts. Bit risky for mine.

Much risk overall with the team, too many "iffy" picks.

 

[Shannon]

Figured I'd throw up my latest draft, Ben Brown forced a lot of changes and I can't say I love this mix. For me I'd like only Marshall as a premium forward and would like to get Doch, Daniels, Ridley or Williams down back as well. Rookies will determine my structure most likely now that Brown is down.

Backs

Laird - Sensational finish to last year and midfield role with his sloot skills has huge upside. Worst case he's ball park fair priced as a defender but I think they've got enough kids coming through to permanise his move.

Whitfield - Upside for mine, concussion game, shorter quarters, scoring history. He's capable of 115+.

Stewart - I think there is little difference between Ridley, Daniel and Stewart, so I've gone the cheapest. Collision injury dropping his price. 105 would be his ceiling though, which is lower than Doch, who is cheaper...

Rookies - Place holding only. Average price of ~140k to allow flexibility.

I want 4 premiums here but making a more balanced structure.

Mids

Neale - Overpriced and I think he cops some tags and probably midfield balance at Brisbane... but durable and I'm designing around trying to maximise that and I think he's top 10. Essentially putting a trade on credit.

Steele - Discussed elsewhere, think he can push higher or sustain. Don't like the Dogs group as starters, everyone below Oliver has risks.

Petracca - Same same, been durable, has upside for mine with another year in the system. He's got that Danger first couple of years at Cats potential for mine. Warning to all... I had him breaking out for like 3 seasons before giving up on him LY!

Kelly - Goes against the durability but Fyfe and Mitchell aren't any better right now and they're the other names that slot in here. Basically that deadly word of upside and reasonable price.

Cripps - Locked at this point, too risky to not pick.

Rookies - Same as above, ~140k average is all they represent.

Rucks

Thoughts in ruck thread are all. I haven't ruled Preuss out at this point but I'm not far off it.

Forwards

Marshall - Ruck coverage, think he's overpriced with Ryder and underpriced without. Ryder hasn't been durable generally though. Should push the top 6 though.

Zorko - Started last year underdone and it showed. No idea on his preseason but he's the best value of the forward group to me and had been durable until last year. Calf at his age scares me though, don't get me wrong but haven't seen him mentioned much and he's been 105+ in 3 of the 4 seasons prior to last year. 105 over the last 12 after having a bit of a rest.

Ziebell - Like him for 90+ with potential to push 100 and be a keeper. At his price that's all I need.

Daniher - Expensive rookie, durability cancels job security but proven scoring history and potential to have huge games.

Rookies - Same deal, bit cheaper than other lines but just numbers for now.

Rookies will dictate my structure, I'm hoping for plenty of forward options to facilitate an extra back premium that I like.

Lot of names are still on my radar but I actually think I'm more settled this year than I have been for years, I feel like I've basically got 5 premiums down back, 3 down forward and about 8 in the mids to fill roughly 3-4, 1-2 and 4-5 slots.

View attachment 25774

Sorry @wogitalia , missed this earlier.

Really nice overall - my main surprise is no Rowell. Kid looks an absolute gun, underpriced for mine. Just thinking if you changed one of Steele/ Petracca/ Kelly to him you could slot Impey for example into the F5 spot rather than relying on 2 starting forward rookies each week or alternatively make your defence a bit stronger.

 

[50 shades of Wade]

How many/who of these players do you view as Keepers/ Premiums? Personally, I think you need to have at least 11 at a minimum that you expect to keep (except for injury) for the year.

Buddy injured again, unlikely for round 1 I believe.

Witherden - with limited practice games it is hard to get a gauge on his exact role.

WCE have so many half backs - Hurn/Shep/ Duggan (maybe mid this year)/ Cole/Rotham with Gov/Barrass in the key posts. Bit risky for mine.

Much risk overall with the team, too many "iffy" picks.

The keepers I want to hold include Whitfield, Williams, Witherden, Oliver, Adams, Cripps, Rowell, Prestia, Gawn, Danger, Marshall, Heeney which is 12 but I'm sure Witherden will have to go at some point

Hopefully, Harmes moves into the midfield and Hannerbery doesn't get injured
I'm not very confident about Ziebell, Buddy, Pruess, Millera and Hanners

 

[Lgndhen23]

really liking the look of this team not going to lie
no lloyd the only major ommition

 

[GrainFedBeef]

Figured I'd throw up my latest draft, Ben Brown forced a lot of changes and I can't say I love this mix. For me I'd like only Marshall as a premium forward and would like to get Doch, Daniels, Ridley or Williams down back as well. Rookies will determine my structure most likely now that Brown is down.

Backs

Laird - Sensational finish to last year and midfield role with his sloot skills has huge upside. Worst case he's ball park fair priced as a defender but I think they've got enough kids coming through to permanise his move.

Whitfield - Upside for mine, concussion game, shorter quarters, scoring history. He's capable of 115+.

Stewart - I think there is little difference between Ridley, Daniel and Stewart, so I've gone the cheapest. Collision injury dropping his price. 105 would be his ceiling though, which is lower than Doch, who is cheaper...

Rookies - Place holding only. Average price of ~140k to allow flexibility.

I want 4 premiums here but making a more balanced structure.

Mids

Neale - Overpriced and I think he cops some tags and probably midfield balance at Brisbane... but durable and I'm designing around trying to maximise that and I think he's top 10. Essentially putting a trade on credit.

Steele - Discussed elsewhere, think he can push higher or sustain. Don't like the Dogs group as starters, everyone below Oliver has risks.

Petracca - Same same, been durable, has upside for mine with another year in the system. He's got that Danger first couple of years at Cats potential for mine. Warning to all... I had him breaking out for like 3 seasons before giving up on him LY!

Kelly - Goes against the durability but Fyfe and Mitchell aren't any better right now and they're the other names that slot in here. Basically that deadly word of upside and reasonable price.

Cripps - Locked at this point, too risky to not pick.

Rookies - Same as above, ~140k average is all they represent.

Rucks

Thoughts in ruck thread are all. I haven't ruled Preuss out at this point but I'm not far off it.

Forwards

Marshall - Ruck coverage, think he's overpriced with Ryder and underpriced without. Ryder hasn't been durable generally though. Should push the top 6 though.

Zorko - Started last year underdone and it showed. No idea on his preseason but he's the best value of the forward group to me and had been durable until last year. Calf at his age scares me though, don't get me wrong but haven't seen him mentioned much and he's been 105+ in 3 of the 4 seasons prior to last year. 105 over the last 12 after having a bit of a rest.

Ziebell - Like him for 90+ with potential to push 100 and be a keeper. At his price that's all I need.

Daniher - Expensive rookie, durability cancels job security but proven scoring history and potential to have huge games.

Rookies - Same deal, bit cheaper than other lines but just numbers for now.

Rookies will dictate my structure, I'm hoping for plenty of forward options to facilitate an extra back premium that I like.

Lot of names are still on my radar but I actually think I'm more settled this year than I have been for years, I feel like I've basically got 5 premiums down back, 3 down forward and about 8 in the mids to fill roughly 3-4, 1-2 and 4-5 slots.

View attachment 25774

Like the lack of mid pricers and breakout risk players.

You have deep knowledge of the game, do you mind if I ask what leads to the volatility in your performance. Your highs are only what I could dream of, yet when you don't smash it, you finish at a level well below your knowledge of the game (if you don't mind saying) as everyone is really impressed with your comments. Does your style change or is risk on and sometimes it pays off and sometime it doest, as we all know if is hard to pick break outs.

I have always been circa 2k-10k with last year my first crappy year with 23k ranking. why? the no gawn, Neale trading mid round 1 and chasing points in round 2 on my trades was the downfall.

For me, avoiding injury players is critical with premiums. Kelly, Fyfe (not in your side), Zorko (given age + calf and more fwd role) best suited to very late in the season, however, I am league focused. Whitfield built like a twig, always seems to get an injury.

Think Roberton is gone. Hopefully 3 def premiums and DGB is possible, I wonder whether we need 4 + DGB.

Will be interesting how Petracca goes with 20min quarters.

 

[wogitalia]

a

You are a man who tells durability to go and EAD, that's for sure. I don't even want to know how many games missed over the last 5 years this group has

Biggest issue is value can quickly get eaten away if you're having to sideways trade for injuries.

Sorry @wogitalia , missed this earlier.

Really nice overall - my main surprise is no Rowell. Kid looks an absolute gun, underpriced for mine. Just thinking if you changed one of Steele/ Petracca/ Kelly to him you could slot Impey for example into the F5 spot rather than relying on 2 starting forward rookies each week or alternatively make your defence a bit stronger.

Haven't really considered him at all. Durability an obvious concern straight away, shoulder issues when you play the way he does is not a good sign. No proven history, basically 3 good games. No idea how he handles tags, which will come in the event he continues to play well.

Really rate him and loved his first 4 games last year but given he's has to average 110+ or he's a total bust I think he's an extremely high risk pick. Credit to anyone who picks him and it works out, way too much risk/unknown for mine in a position I'm not really interested in risks.

 

[wogitalia]

Like the lack of mid pricers and breakout risk players.

You have deep knowledge of the game, do you mind if I ask what leads to the volatility in your performance. Your highs are only what I could dream of, yet when you do smash it, you finish at a level well below your knowledge of the game (if you don't mind saying) as everyone is really impressed with your comments. Does your style change or is risk on and sometimes it pays off and sometime it doest, as we all know if is hard to pick break outs.

I have always been circa 2k-10k with last year my first crappy year with 23k ranking. why? the no gawn, Neale trading mid round 1 and chasing points in round 2 on my trades was the downfall.

For me, avoiding injury players is critical with premiums. Kelly, Fyfe (not in your side), Zorko (given age + calf and more fwd role) best suited to very late in the season, however, I am league focused. Whitfield built like a twig, always seems to get an injury.

Think Roberton is gone. Hopefully 3 def premiums and DGB is possible, I wonder whether we need 4 + DGB.

Will be interesting how Petracca goes with 20min quarters.

There's a few reason...

The first is cash leagues, I'm actually not looking like being in any this year but normally have a couple so when the overall goes out the window the focus changes to a certain extent.

2015 was just a mare, from memory I think I used 7 trades in the rucks and still couldn't get Goldstein in all year and just had a ton of injuries and just made bad moves chasing lost points. Pretty sure I utterly cooked the starting strategy as well, just had a structure that was totally wrong and never recovered. I also lost somewhere in the order of 1000 points on loopholes. Just an epic example of everything that could go wrong did go wrong.

2017/2018/2019 - I was travelling and living overseas and didn't watch much football, 2018 I should have been much higher but missed a bunch of lockouts on trades. 2019 I barely watched a game of footy, it makes a big difference

2020 - Season ended with the Melbourne/Essendon game, I had a third of my team across those two teams. At that point I just focused on my cash leagues. Having been up there at the pointy end I knew that losing ~500 points is not recoverable, was what it was, still think it was a disgraceful action but can't do anything about it. Was also way more focused on daily fantasy and as a result DT, from that point on.

I think also a big part of it is that I will go for unconventional structures quite often which can obviously pay dividends but also go astray real fast, prior to Brown's injury and Heeney's update I had Heeney as my F1 for example! Ultimately this game comes down to a couple of 50/50 calls with the starting team, a ton of luck and discipline with trades. I normally have each spot in my team narrowed down to a few players. Last year I went Wingard and Lynch instead of Simpkin and Petracca for example, could have been a very different season and I'd picked Petracca for what felt like a decade prior to that so it hurt even more... At the same time I started Howe last year and that was going great until it wasnt

I'd probably also be better off if I could just lock my team out on Wednesday round 1 before I can tinker!

Agree entirely on durability. Of course the problem is that value is generally a result of a lack of durability and so the yin and the yang are at each other's throats! That Kelly slot is the real conundrum for mine.

 

[Mudflap]

Thinking of taking on the Rucks this year. Not certain... thoughts?

 

[GrainFedBeef]

There's a few reason...

The first is cash leagues, I'm actually not looking like being in any this year but normally have a couple so when the overall goes out the window the focus changes to a certain extent.

2015 was just a mare, from memory I think I used 7 trades in the rucks and still couldn't get Goldstein in all year and just had a ton of injuries and just made bad moves chasing lost points. Pretty sure I utterly cooked the starting strategy as well, just had a structure that was totally wrong and never recovered. I also lost somewhere in the order of 1000 points on loopholes. Just an epic example of everything that could go wrong did go wrong.

2017/2018/2019 - I was travelling and living overseas and didn't watch much football, 2018 I should have been much higher but missed a bunch of lockouts on trades. 2019 I barely watched a game of footy, it makes a big difference

2020 - Season ended with the Melbourne/Essendon game, I had a third of my team across those two teams. At that point I just focused on my cash leagues. Having been up there at the pointy end I knew that losing ~500 points is not recoverable, was what it was, still think it was a disgraceful action but can't do anything about it. Was also way more focused on daily fantasy and as a result DT, from that point on.

I think also a big part of it is that I will go for unconventional structures quite often which can obviously pay dividends but also go astray real fast, prior to Brown's injury and Heeney's update I had Heeney as my F1 for example! Ultimately this game comes down to a couple of 50/50 calls with the starting team, a ton of luck and discipline with trades. I normally have each spot in my team narrowed down to a few players. Last year I went Wingard and Lynch instead of Simpkin and Petracca for example, could have been a very different season and I'd picked Petracca for what felt like a decade prior to that so it hurt even more... At the same time I started Howe last year and that was going great until it wasnt

I'd probably also be better off if I could just lock my team out on Wednesday round 1 before I can tinker!

Agree entirely on durability. Of course the problem is that value is generally a result of a lack of durability and so the yin and the yang are at each other's throats! That Kelly slot is the real conundrum for mine.

Agree with a lot of this. Mess with the rucks and its is painful. Missed Petracca too in 50/50, took Wingard, so we shared that pain. Ceglar as well, just so the Hawks rubbed more salt into this 2015 GF attendee.

I do think Mills is interesting, don't have prior history to not pick him. Kid was a magnet in younger years.

Interesting comment that he was meant to mids previously until they hit three injuries.

 

[wogitalia]

Agree with a lot of this. Mess with the rucks and its is painful. Missed Petracca too in 50/50, took Wingard, so we shared that pain. Ceglar as well, just so the Hawks rubbed more salt into this 2015 GF attendee.

I do think Mills is interesting, don't have prior history to not pick him. Kid was a magnet in younger years.

Interesting comment that he was meant to mids previously until they hit three injuries.

I steer clear of the Swans in general but I'm all over Mills in that role, just rate him super highly.

I'll see your Ceglar and raise you a bailing on Brayshaw into Ceglar for one of my worst ever trades but hopefully can ease your suffering

 

[GrainFedBeef]

I steer clear of the Swans in general but I'm all over Mills in that role, just rate him super highly.

I'll see your Ceglar and raise you a bailing on Brayshaw into Ceglar for one of my worst ever trades but hopefully can ease your suffering

oh my, I will not raise, will semi-match, Bont into Hurn at $570k, just before he decided to be a 70 player. Houston and BSmith also traded.

 

[Bomber18]

I understand the skepticism of him not getting midfield time next year with Treloar arriving and what happened last year, but I just see him being given a lot more inside mid time than he got in 2020. I think given how much they rate him as a club, and given the players unanimously said he was the coach's favourite player in one of those short interviews last year, he is going to get midfield time to make him happy and want to stay at the club. They boldly said they think he's one of their best players in the trade period and they know he tried to leave because he wanted increased midfield time. He might not go back to the amount of mid time he got in the last 16 games of 2019, where he averaged 128 in that span, but I see a significant increase happening.

When asked how Treloar's arrival would affect them Beveridge said "we have guys who can play forward and wing", that to me was a reference to Smith and Macrae if anyone at all. Macrae is a great mid, but I'm also not sure he makes them better than Dunkley/Bont/Treloar would together at stoppages. He's good inside and outside of the contest. I do think Dunkley has a good chance of becoming one of the best players in the league and I think this year will be a step in that direction. You can't underestimate what he can do as an inside player and there's every chance he does that this year.

Interestingly he really didn't get much CBA's in the games where he played ruck, in the 3 games I mentioned where he did a significant amount of rucking he attended 25% (crows), 9% (dees) and 0% (cats) of centre bounces. From what I can tell the ruck work only dragged him down in general.

On another note you were more or less spot on about Dunkley last season, he was worth waiting to look at rather than starting (I followed your advice and it helped), as are most players who suddenly emerge in a single season as top tier scorers.

That last bit is why Steele and Petracca are simply not in consideration for me as starters. It’s only Oliver in recent years who have broken that trend.

Your bullishness on Dunkley getting that mid role has me reconsidering him. I still need to see how the role looks in the one preseason game. If he doesn’t get at least half the CBs there, don’t think I could start him.