Position SC 2021: Forward Discussion
- Thread starter THCLT
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The thing with the forwards is, I don't see anyone mounting a solid case that Danger, Sidebottom, Dusty, Dunkley, Marshall, Zorko, Walters (albiet with some missed games) and Hawkins don't average at least high 90s. That puts those 8 head and shoulders above anyone else already, unless you plump for a massive breakout from your Bolton/Butters types (ie. 10-15 point increase in average).
Because the gap from best to the rest on this line seems so clear (to me anyway), I'm sticking with 500k+ premos or anyone less than Ziebell the "super rookie" - I think the in-between picks are better on other lines.
Because the gap from best to the rest on this line seems so clear (to me anyway), I'm sticking with 500k+ premos or anyone less than Ziebell the "super rookie" - I think the in-between picks are better on other lines.
It's a good point, will be interesting to see final structures and how many of these guys people try to lock in from the start. It'll most likely be dictated by where the good rookies are.. but also how confident people are in this group. I'm super nervous about the forward line but could easily start 6 defenders I'd be pretty confident in.. so I'm praying the forward rookies are strong enough that I can take 2 (Marshall, Dunkley) and then wait and see on the rest.. especially as I'm confident they'll all be cheaper at some stage throughout the year.
I will say though, I'm super bullish on Butters so he's in too. I reckon he'll go close to a 95avg and if so he's an easy season keeper even if he's a few ppg off the top guys.
I will say though, I'm super bullish on Butters so he's in too. I reckon he'll go close to a 95avg and if so he's an easy season keeper even if he's a few ppg off the top guys.
Agree. There is a solid argument for loading up with a significant number of these blokes (even starting a couple of them in the MIDs). Danger is probably the one you can pass on due to groin concerns . Hawkins will likely put in a crap score or two at some point so is better to target after a price drop. But a starting forward line of Dunk, Dusty, Marshall, Sidey, [pray for two viable starting FWD rookies] has a lot to like about it.
If I do look for some value, it would be someone like Tom Phillips. But he'd have a show a lot before Rd 1 and at $400k he pretty much needs to be a keeper. The lack of preseason games is going to make that decision difficult. His best SC average was 90 in 2018 but played all 22. 84 from 22 in 2019 and then 75 last year where he was very much played out of a lucrative position. He's definitely more a DT friendly scorer when he gets into that slooty accumulating role. I just think that role is there for him at the Hawks and if he can improve his kicking, the SC will come.
I would take Walters and Hawkins out of that group. Freo are now having trouble finding midfield spots for the young blokes let alone Walters. I would put Fyfe as a mid in the same category. Even though Hawkins is in good shape he is 33 this year and will now share with Cameron. To a lesser extent I also wouldn't plan for a 32 year old Zorko to maintain his scoring.
Really like him in DT. Would need to look fundamentally different as a ball user for any real appeal in SC. It's just hard to see him getting a lot more of it than he did at the Pies on the wing so from a SC perspective he needs to improve his glaring flaw to really be able to close the gap.
See him as a solid chance at the 95-100 range in DT but that puts him in the 80-95 range in SC and that 95 feels like a long bow to draw.
Isaac Smith only ever maxed out at 91 for the Hawks and none of their wingers have scored well in the past (Hill topped out at 79).
I can definitely make the case on all of those guys dropping from their starting points, Hawkins the only one I think has a strong case for not being mid 90s though. I think a few of the others have decent cases (Walters, Zorko & Marshall). The problem is the remainders in Dusty, Danger, Sidey and Dunkley also have strong cases for not starting them even if the high 90s is likely.
Dunkley's upside risk to me is the strongest reason to start him, or any of other others, Marshall's DPP is the next best reason I can see but for mine it's the only real reason (a Ryder injury fundamentally changes this).
So the real question is where do you think the premium level is? For mine the forwards are by far the best spot to take a risk on breakouts. Mids they need to score way higher, that 110+ level is all but guaranteed as the cutoff point. 105 might work if they come from far enough back but that's it. The rucks have 120+ as the recent cutoff. Backs group, imo, looks a lot more solid than the forwards. I see a solid 10 guys there that should be around the 100 mark.
That leaves the forwards. Forwards have 8 starting premiums setting the level at 97, the highest is 114. Going through them:
Danger - Let's assume he maintains 114.
Sidey - I think most agree he's overpriced from the short quarter shenanigans. His 5 year average prior to LY was 100. Let's put him there.
Hawkins - With Cameron coming in there are a lot of questions, his 5 year average is 87 prior to last year. I think he has a good case to be back there, so let's say he falls out.
Dunkley - Has concerns, has positives. Let's say he's fairly priced at 104.
Marshall - Similar to Dunkley. Ditto at 104.
Martin - Probably had a bit of ratio benefit last year but he's been around that 100 mark for 3 years, personally think 95 is quite probable with more of the younger guys taking more of the midfield and them perfectly happy to manage him into the finals. Still let's call it 100.
Walters - Durability issues and probably about top priced, similar to Martin you'd expect the younger guys to take more of a role and probably try and protect him a bit more. Let's call him 95.
Zorko - Ditto to Walters with a calf injury, notorious old man injury that it is, and say he sits around the 95 mark as well.
That basically puts us at 5 guys around the 100 mark, the reality is that 1 of those 5 probably is injured or what not, has a mare, who knows but lets use that 5, of them 1 is a must have, 2 are just about must haves, and 2 are fairly priced but can be beaten by enough value. To be fair, the names of this group matter far less than the distribution, I've just created the scenario.
Given this grouping, which imo is a reasonable outcome perhaps even optimistic, you'd have 3 spots in the forward line that can be attacked with value. The 6th spot is in that mid 90s range anyway on this scenario but both the 100 guys can be beaten as starting choices by a solid 95 scoring value pick. The more value the more scope. Heeney has to get closer than say Caldwell would for example.
I think the forwards are the most vulnerable group, say they all drop towards 100, that would make the whole position under fire.
Obviously everyone has different projections, fwiw I'd probably flip Dunkley and Danger in the above for example, but if you can get the distribution right then you can decide the structure. If you can then nail the names within that distribution you're way ahead of the pack!
Other factor of course is that later in the season it's very plausible that you can get any of the above as value picks. For mine Danger with the lack of preseason, Cameron, role changes and high starting point is the most vulnerable, which makes him a very strong upgrade target. Martin for me is also a strong upgrade target, slow starter more often than not and his role is likely to produce variable scoring. Sidey I just think is flat out overpriced. So I'm basically structuring to the idea of those 3 being upgrade targets for my side (I don't like the breakout group enough to attack those slots so instead going for maximum cash generation to target the upgrades).
See him as a solid chance at the 95-100 range in DT but that puts him in the 80-95 range in SC and that 95 feels like a long bow to draw.
Isaac Smith only ever maxed out at 91 for the Hawks and none of their wingers have scored well in the past (Hill topped out at 79).
I can definitely make the case on all of those guys dropping from their starting points, Hawkins the only one I think has a strong case for not being mid 90s though. I think a few of the others have decent cases (Walters, Zorko & Marshall). The problem is the remainders in Dusty, Danger, Sidey and Dunkley also have strong cases for not starting them even if the high 90s is likely.
Dunkley's upside risk to me is the strongest reason to start him, or any of other others, Marshall's DPP is the next best reason I can see but for mine it's the only real reason (a Ryder injury fundamentally changes this).
So the real question is where do you think the premium level is? For mine the forwards are by far the best spot to take a risk on breakouts. Mids they need to score way higher, that 110+ level is all but guaranteed as the cutoff point. 105 might work if they come from far enough back but that's it. The rucks have 120+ as the recent cutoff. Backs group, imo, looks a lot more solid than the forwards. I see a solid 10 guys there that should be around the 100 mark.
That leaves the forwards. Forwards have 8 starting premiums setting the level at 97, the highest is 114. Going through them:
Danger - Let's assume he maintains 114.
Sidey - I think most agree he's overpriced from the short quarter shenanigans. His 5 year average prior to LY was 100. Let's put him there.
Hawkins - With Cameron coming in there are a lot of questions, his 5 year average is 87 prior to last year. I think he has a good case to be back there, so let's say he falls out.
Dunkley - Has concerns, has positives. Let's say he's fairly priced at 104.
Marshall - Similar to Dunkley. Ditto at 104.
Martin - Probably had a bit of ratio benefit last year but he's been around that 100 mark for 3 years, personally think 95 is quite probable with more of the younger guys taking more of the midfield and them perfectly happy to manage him into the finals. Still let's call it 100.
Walters - Durability issues and probably about top priced, similar to Martin you'd expect the younger guys to take more of a role and probably try and protect him a bit more. Let's call him 95.
Zorko - Ditto to Walters with a calf injury, notorious old man injury that it is, and say he sits around the 95 mark as well.
That basically puts us at 5 guys around the 100 mark, the reality is that 1 of those 5 probably is injured or what not, has a mare, who knows but lets use that 5, of them 1 is a must have, 2 are just about must haves, and 2 are fairly priced but can be beaten by enough value. To be fair, the names of this group matter far less than the distribution, I've just created the scenario.
Given this grouping, which imo is a reasonable outcome perhaps even optimistic, you'd have 3 spots in the forward line that can be attacked with value. The 6th spot is in that mid 90s range anyway on this scenario but both the 100 guys can be beaten as starting choices by a solid 95 scoring value pick. The more value the more scope. Heeney has to get closer than say Caldwell would for example.
I think the forwards are the most vulnerable group, say they all drop towards 100, that would make the whole position under fire.
Obviously everyone has different projections, fwiw I'd probably flip Dunkley and Danger in the above for example, but if you can get the distribution right then you can decide the structure. If you can then nail the names within that distribution you're way ahead of the pack!
Other factor of course is that later in the season it's very plausible that you can get any of the above as value picks. For mine Danger with the lack of preseason, Cameron, role changes and high starting point is the most vulnerable, which makes him a very strong upgrade target. Martin for me is also a strong upgrade target, slow starter more often than not and his role is likely to produce variable scoring. Sidey I just think is flat out overpriced. So I'm basically structuring to the idea of those 3 being upgrade targets for my side (I don't like the breakout group enough to attack those slots so instead going for maximum cash generation to target the upgrades).
Reminds me of the beginning of the end of Brad Johnson's career, almost to a tee that description.
It's a worry, any word if he had surgery or anything? Rather there be a surgical fix than just hoping it goes away as he's only getting older
It's a worry, any word if he had surgery or anything? Rather there be a surgical fix than just hoping it goes away as he's only getting older
I'm not ruling Zorko out based on his age yet, he came into the league late and has hardly missed a game since he debuted.
Not so long ago I would've had Berry on the same level as McCluggage, I'm not so sure now. I think Berry's still got some work to do to become more than a good player who can have an impact in various roles. Over the last couple of seasons he's had multiple down periods when he's made a lot of mistakes or just looked like he's playing sore. With Neale and Lyons likely to continue to play the same roles Berry will probably continue to rotate inside/wing/forward with Zorko, McCluggage, Bailey and Rayner for now.
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