Position SC 2021: Forward Discussion
- Thread starter THCLT
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Taking my Tiger glasses off, while I agree Dusty may start slow, if you were going to pick him I would start him as his number 1 attribute is Durability and if he goes 'bang' Round 1 (he loves round 1 against Carlton) then you have the best of both worlds.
https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/pu-richmond-tigers--dustin-martin
https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/pu-richmond-tigers--dustin-martin
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FORMER No.1 draft pick Cam Rayner sizzled at Brisbane's match simulation session on Friday afternoon, taking advantage of more time onball.
With Lachie Neale, Dayne Zorko and Jarrod Berry among a handful of players on lighter duties and watching from the sidelines, Rayner exploded in the midfield.
His power around the stoppages was eye-catching, as was his hard running with the ball in transition.
From one centre bounce the ball spilled free, before Rayner laid a bruising tackle on draftee Blake Coleman, picked the ball up, dodged two opponents and pumped it inside 50 where Tom Fullarton took a towering mark.
It was a glimpse into his impact in the three 20-minute thirds.
Rayner wasn't the only one to impress, with fellow 2017 draftee Zac Bailey also in fine form.
Bailey kicked two goals for his team and showed off his electric pace when both onball and in the forward half.
Hugh McCluggage and Daniel Rich also played well, while Harris Andrews slightly edged Joe Daniher in an engrossing contest.
Young defender Brandon Starcevich left the field after landing heavily in a marking contest, but appeared to be fine.
https://www.afl.com.au/news/545798/former-no-1-pick-explodes-in-lions-match-sim
With Lachie Neale, Dayne Zorko and Jarrod Berry among a handful of players on lighter duties and watching from the sidelines, Rayner exploded in the midfield.
His power around the stoppages was eye-catching, as was his hard running with the ball in transition.
From one centre bounce the ball spilled free, before Rayner laid a bruising tackle on draftee Blake Coleman, picked the ball up, dodged two opponents and pumped it inside 50 where Tom Fullarton took a towering mark.
It was a glimpse into his impact in the three 20-minute thirds.
Rayner wasn't the only one to impress, with fellow 2017 draftee Zac Bailey also in fine form.
Bailey kicked two goals for his team and showed off his electric pace when both onball and in the forward half.
Hugh McCluggage and Daniel Rich also played well, while Harris Andrews slightly edged Joe Daniher in an engrossing contest.
Young defender Brandon Starcevich left the field after landing heavily in a marking contest, but appeared to be fine.
https://www.afl.com.au/news/545798/former-no-1-pick-explodes-in-lions-match-sim
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The biggest problem with Dangerfield, is he will be rested during the season.
Skipper Joel Selwood expects every Geelong player to be managed throughout the season in the hunt for a premiership
https://www.afl.com.au/news/543294/...full-season-cats-set-to-rest-in-tilt-for-flag
Skipper Joel Selwood expects every Geelong player to be managed throughout the season in the hunt for a premiership
https://www.afl.com.au/news/543294/...full-season-cats-set-to-rest-in-tilt-for-flag
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THE LOCKS
Rowan Marshall (StK) $557,200, Ruck
There’s a strong case to make Marshall your first picked – and the player to build your forward-line around.
He’s almost a top-six lock and his dual-position status will allow for valuable ruck cover.
And not just for when one of your ruckmen is injured or suspended.
If a mid-price gamble - Brayden Preuss for example - backfires, Marshall could make a slight restructure easier. There are far more options in the mid-range bracket in the forward line and you could take advantage of this while Marshall sits at R2 until you start to upgrade.
Anyway, Preuss isn’t going to fail – *crosses fingers* - but you get the point.
That’s really only a bonus, though, he could be picked on his scoring power alone.
In his breakout year of 2019, Marshall averaged 110 points per game, on the back of 14 KFC SuperCoach tons, six in excess of 120.
Then Paddy Ryder arrived at the Saints and Marshall posted scores of 92, 70 and 81 in the opening three games of last season alongside his new ruck partner.
Ryder missed the next two matches and Marshall posted back-to-back KFC SuperCoach tons.
But that’s not the end of the story.
Marshall adjusted to the new ruck-forward role – one he played so well in the VFL before exploding onto the scene at the top level – and began assertting his dominance in a slightly different way.
On average, and with the stats adjusted per 100 minutes, Marshall recorded more marks, contested marks and goals than he did in 2019.
His hitout numbers were down but Marshall gained more territory than any other ruckman in the competition and only Nic Naitanui recorded more inside-50s per game.
In the final 10 home-and-away games of the year, the 25-year-old booted nine goals, took 19 contested marks and averaged 112 KFC SuperCoach points.
Ryder played in nine of them.
The Phantom’s Verdict: I’ve built my forward line around him, you should too.
THE NEXT BEST
Josh Dunkley (WB) $560,200
If you’ve been following premium week, you will know where The Phantom stands on the arrival of Adam Treloar at the Bulldogs – scroll down if you haven’t.
Am I tipping Dunkley to spend more time forward again in 2020? Yes.
Does that mean we should expect a similar KFC SuperCoach average to last year – and not that of his career-best season of 2019? Yes.
But will that still make him a top-six forward? Yes.
Those three questions just about sum up Dunkley in KFC SuperCoach in 2021.
The Bulldogs gun started slow as a forward in 2019, before exploding when moved back into the midfield where he averaged 128 points per game from Round 7.
But, to absolutely no one’s surprise in the KFC SuperCoach community, Dunkley was moved around again last year – attending just 22 per cent of centre bounces from Round 10 onwards - and missed six matches with a nasty ankle injury.
He only passed the 100-point mark in just three of the final eight games of the year after returning, but never dropped below 87.
The Phantom’s Verdict: Unless, by trying to leave the club for more midfield time, Dunkley has convinced coach Luke Beveridge to keep him in the middle, there might be some inconsistency in his role – and, in turn, his scoring. But it’s unlikely he averages less than last season – 104 – making him a near top-six certainty.
Patrick Dangerfield (Geel) $611,900
I feel uneasy leaving Dangerfield out of the top section.
This is the guy who has averaged 120, 132, 136, 122, 115 and 114 in the past six seasons.
And he’s available as a forward, again.
But he’s battling an ongoing groin issue, which restricted him last season, and he’s even made multiple trips to Adelaide to see renowned groin/hip expert Steve Saunders.
“If you lose Round 1 … there are still 21 games to go,” Dangerfield said in late January when asked about his chances against the Crows in the season opener.
But if you’ve watched the Brownlow Medallist over the years, you will know it takes a lot to keep him out of a game for premiership points.
I expect him to play and spend most of his time inside-50 after he confirmed the injury ‘will definitely’ have an impact on his role early in the year.
The Phantom’s Verdict: It’s not the forward role I’m concerned about – he could take 5 contested marks and boot six goals against the Crows in Round 1 – but it’s the combination of that, the injury and the very limited pre-season. Upgrade target?
Dustin Martin (Rich) $541,600
Speaking of, the three-time Norm Smith Medallist has been a slow starter in KFC SuperCoach in recent years.
Martin has passed the 100-point mark against the Blues in Round 1 in the past two seasons before going on to post six-round averages of 88 and 89.
But when you prime yourself perfectly to deliver consistent, dominant performances on the big stage, who really cares?
We, the KFC SuperCoach community do. Well, everyone except Al Paton.
With Hawthorn and the Swans up after Carlton this year, will it happen again? It’s hard to say.
Regardless, he’s still likely to average 100 minimum and that’s what he’s priced at.
The Phantom’s Verdict: You’re unlikely to lose by picking him but there’s plenty to be lost if you leave him out and he does start with a bang. I’d like to enjoy the season-opener on March 18.
Steele Sidebottom (Coll) $588,000
Sidebottom is an interesting KFC SuperCoach prospect in 2021.
As a midfielder, he sat on the level just below the top tier, meaning he was rarely discussed as a serious starting option in the classic format.
But as a dual-position forward this year, it’s a different story.
Or is it?
Thanks to two big scores – 150 and 141 – the classy Magpie averaged 109 points from nine matches in 2020, the second-highest season average of his career.
But his raw numbers were very similar – some even down – to 2019, a year he averaged just 94 points per game.
Adjusting the stats per 100 minutes, Sidebottom won more of the ball in total and in a contest, increasing his contested possessions per game by 1.3 and his clearances by 0.7.
However, the 30-year-old was involved in less scoring chains (4.8 – down from 5), gained less territory (269 – down from 365), took less marks (4.1 – down from 5.8), sent the ball inside-50 on fewer occasions (3.4 – down from 3.5) and missed more targets by foot (48% kicking efficiency – down from 64%).
While the contested side of the game has always been weighted more heavily in KFC SuperCoach – and his increased inside role with no Adam Treloar will keep him above that 94-point mark – the scaling in those big games, with shorter quarters, may have slightly skewed last year’s average.
It also must be noted, Sidebottom left the Collingwood hub last year for family reasons – it wasn’t an easy year.
The Phantom’s Verdict: He’s still too good not to be a top-six forward but I think we can pick him up cheaper at some point.
CAN WE TRUST HIM?
Michael Walters (Freo) $531,100
No words needed here.
The Phantom’s Verdict: Don’t do it to yourself. Not to start with anyway.
Rowan Marshall (StK) $557,200, Ruck
There’s a strong case to make Marshall your first picked – and the player to build your forward-line around.
He’s almost a top-six lock and his dual-position status will allow for valuable ruck cover.
And not just for when one of your ruckmen is injured or suspended.
If a mid-price gamble - Brayden Preuss for example - backfires, Marshall could make a slight restructure easier. There are far more options in the mid-range bracket in the forward line and you could take advantage of this while Marshall sits at R2 until you start to upgrade.
Anyway, Preuss isn’t going to fail – *crosses fingers* - but you get the point.
That’s really only a bonus, though, he could be picked on his scoring power alone.
In his breakout year of 2019, Marshall averaged 110 points per game, on the back of 14 KFC SuperCoach tons, six in excess of 120.
Then Paddy Ryder arrived at the Saints and Marshall posted scores of 92, 70 and 81 in the opening three games of last season alongside his new ruck partner.
Ryder missed the next two matches and Marshall posted back-to-back KFC SuperCoach tons.
But that’s not the end of the story.
Marshall adjusted to the new ruck-forward role – one he played so well in the VFL before exploding onto the scene at the top level – and began assertting his dominance in a slightly different way.
On average, and with the stats adjusted per 100 minutes, Marshall recorded more marks, contested marks and goals than he did in 2019.
His hitout numbers were down but Marshall gained more territory than any other ruckman in the competition and only Nic Naitanui recorded more inside-50s per game.
In the final 10 home-and-away games of the year, the 25-year-old booted nine goals, took 19 contested marks and averaged 112 KFC SuperCoach points.
Ryder played in nine of them.
The Phantom’s Verdict: I’ve built my forward line around him, you should too.
THE NEXT BEST
Josh Dunkley (WB) $560,200
If you’ve been following premium week, you will know where The Phantom stands on the arrival of Adam Treloar at the Bulldogs – scroll down if you haven’t.
Am I tipping Dunkley to spend more time forward again in 2020? Yes.
Does that mean we should expect a similar KFC SuperCoach average to last year – and not that of his career-best season of 2019? Yes.
But will that still make him a top-six forward? Yes.
Those three questions just about sum up Dunkley in KFC SuperCoach in 2021.
The Bulldogs gun started slow as a forward in 2019, before exploding when moved back into the midfield where he averaged 128 points per game from Round 7.
But, to absolutely no one’s surprise in the KFC SuperCoach community, Dunkley was moved around again last year – attending just 22 per cent of centre bounces from Round 10 onwards - and missed six matches with a nasty ankle injury.
He only passed the 100-point mark in just three of the final eight games of the year after returning, but never dropped below 87.
The Phantom’s Verdict: Unless, by trying to leave the club for more midfield time, Dunkley has convinced coach Luke Beveridge to keep him in the middle, there might be some inconsistency in his role – and, in turn, his scoring. But it’s unlikely he averages less than last season – 104 – making him a near top-six certainty.
Patrick Dangerfield (Geel) $611,900
I feel uneasy leaving Dangerfield out of the top section.
This is the guy who has averaged 120, 132, 136, 122, 115 and 114 in the past six seasons.
And he’s available as a forward, again.
But he’s battling an ongoing groin issue, which restricted him last season, and he’s even made multiple trips to Adelaide to see renowned groin/hip expert Steve Saunders.
“If you lose Round 1 … there are still 21 games to go,” Dangerfield said in late January when asked about his chances against the Crows in the season opener.
But if you’ve watched the Brownlow Medallist over the years, you will know it takes a lot to keep him out of a game for premiership points.
I expect him to play and spend most of his time inside-50 after he confirmed the injury ‘will definitely’ have an impact on his role early in the year.
The Phantom’s Verdict: It’s not the forward role I’m concerned about – he could take 5 contested marks and boot six goals against the Crows in Round 1 – but it’s the combination of that, the injury and the very limited pre-season. Upgrade target?
Dustin Martin (Rich) $541,600
Speaking of, the three-time Norm Smith Medallist has been a slow starter in KFC SuperCoach in recent years.
Martin has passed the 100-point mark against the Blues in Round 1 in the past two seasons before going on to post six-round averages of 88 and 89.
But when you prime yourself perfectly to deliver consistent, dominant performances on the big stage, who really cares?
We, the KFC SuperCoach community do. Well, everyone except Al Paton.
With Hawthorn and the Swans up after Carlton this year, will it happen again? It’s hard to say.
Regardless, he’s still likely to average 100 minimum and that’s what he’s priced at.
The Phantom’s Verdict: You’re unlikely to lose by picking him but there’s plenty to be lost if you leave him out and he does start with a bang. I’d like to enjoy the season-opener on March 18.
Steele Sidebottom (Coll) $588,000
Sidebottom is an interesting KFC SuperCoach prospect in 2021.
As a midfielder, he sat on the level just below the top tier, meaning he was rarely discussed as a serious starting option in the classic format.
But as a dual-position forward this year, it’s a different story.
Or is it?
Thanks to two big scores – 150 and 141 – the classy Magpie averaged 109 points from nine matches in 2020, the second-highest season average of his career.
But his raw numbers were very similar – some even down – to 2019, a year he averaged just 94 points per game.
Adjusting the stats per 100 minutes, Sidebottom won more of the ball in total and in a contest, increasing his contested possessions per game by 1.3 and his clearances by 0.7.
However, the 30-year-old was involved in less scoring chains (4.8 – down from 5), gained less territory (269 – down from 365), took less marks (4.1 – down from 5.8), sent the ball inside-50 on fewer occasions (3.4 – down from 3.5) and missed more targets by foot (48% kicking efficiency – down from 64%).
While the contested side of the game has always been weighted more heavily in KFC SuperCoach – and his increased inside role with no Adam Treloar will keep him above that 94-point mark – the scaling in those big games, with shorter quarters, may have slightly skewed last year’s average.
It also must be noted, Sidebottom left the Collingwood hub last year for family reasons – it wasn’t an easy year.
The Phantom’s Verdict: He’s still too good not to be a top-six forward but I think we can pick him up cheaper at some point.
CAN WE TRUST HIM?
Michael Walters (Freo) $531,100
No words needed here.
The Phantom’s Verdict: Don’t do it to yourself. Not to start with anyway.
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NEXT GEN
Zak Butters (Port) $471,400
As a forward, the 20-year-old rated elite for effective disposals, kicking efficiency, intercept marks, contested possessions, groundball-gets, intercept possessions, score involvements and goal assists in just his second year in the competition.
He played majority of the year forward, but the ratings highlight just how much of an impact he had when pushing up through the midfield.
Butters increased his average from 60 to 87 after posting six KFC SuperCoach tons and four other scores of 80 or more from his 15 games.
And the Power only want Butters and fellow young star Connor Rozee to spend more time in the midfield going forward – especially if recruit Orazio Fantasia stays fit.
The Phantom’s Verdict: Would be a big call to start at the price but I am tipping another spike for Butters this year. Bigger than Rozee’s? Probably not.
Shai Bolton (Rich) $462,400
The skillful Tiger was electric in his midfield stint during 2019.
Bolton, after spending most of the first 17 games of his career in the forward line, was pushed into the midfield in Round 16 and averaged 27 disposals, eight contested possessions, four clearances and 117 KFC SuperCoach points, while also booting three goals, in the next two matches.
But he returned to his role as a small-forward for the finals and was dropped after the Tigers loss to the Saints in Round 4 last year.
If there was a silver lining to Dion Prestia’s injury last year, however, it was Bolton’s return to the side – and the midfield – in Round 6.
From that point, the 22-year-old ranked second at the Tigers for score involvements, third for contested possessions and fifth for disposals. He finished with five KFC SuperCoach tons in the minor round and posted a career-high 135 points, on the back of 16 disposals, nine contested possessions and seven tackles, in the grand final win over the Cats.
The Phantom’s Verdict: In the top-six mix if he can find consistency through the midfield.
https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/...e/news-story/c236398d160f1ba50b3f422959bbcaf0
Zak Butters (Port) $471,400
As a forward, the 20-year-old rated elite for effective disposals, kicking efficiency, intercept marks, contested possessions, groundball-gets, intercept possessions, score involvements and goal assists in just his second year in the competition.
He played majority of the year forward, but the ratings highlight just how much of an impact he had when pushing up through the midfield.
Butters increased his average from 60 to 87 after posting six KFC SuperCoach tons and four other scores of 80 or more from his 15 games.
And the Power only want Butters and fellow young star Connor Rozee to spend more time in the midfield going forward – especially if recruit Orazio Fantasia stays fit.
The Phantom’s Verdict: Would be a big call to start at the price but I am tipping another spike for Butters this year. Bigger than Rozee’s? Probably not.
Shai Bolton (Rich) $462,400
The skillful Tiger was electric in his midfield stint during 2019.
Bolton, after spending most of the first 17 games of his career in the forward line, was pushed into the midfield in Round 16 and averaged 27 disposals, eight contested possessions, four clearances and 117 KFC SuperCoach points, while also booting three goals, in the next two matches.
But he returned to his role as a small-forward for the finals and was dropped after the Tigers loss to the Saints in Round 4 last year.
If there was a silver lining to Dion Prestia’s injury last year, however, it was Bolton’s return to the side – and the midfield – in Round 6.
From that point, the 22-year-old ranked second at the Tigers for score involvements, third for contested possessions and fifth for disposals. He finished with five KFC SuperCoach tons in the minor round and posted a career-high 135 points, on the back of 16 disposals, nine contested possessions and seven tackles, in the grand final win over the Cats.
The Phantom’s Verdict: In the top-six mix if he can find consistency through the midfield.
https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/...e/news-story/c236398d160f1ba50b3f422959bbcaf0
I actually subscribe to the opposite school of thought on that. You trade into durable guys and you start the risky ones, maximising the time you get their points and hoping they stay healthy.
Dusty has done well against Carlton but the R1 game is almost meaningless in price changes and he's been very slow for the month after it the past couple of years. Just like him as an upgrade target. Basically he's fairly priced, imo, so he's not going to cost more and his history suggests he'll be available on the cheap.
Prefer the idea of starting a Dunkley or Marshall who have narratives where their scoring goes ballistic. Last year even with Cotchin, Prestia and Edwards out they were still pretty happy to have him strutting around up forward.
I do also think their is a case to be made that he's overpriced in the role he's playing. That 184 is one of the most ballistic of all the ratios last year. Dropping it even to 140 would knock 3 points off the average. I do think he's fairly priced but I can make a stronger case for him dropping to a 95 than going up to a 110.
Will make his way into my draft teams again I'm sure... He's so talented and he doesn't seem lazy but his inability to develop has been really frustrating to watch. I really like him though as a guy who probably can become my next Gray and Petracca, aka guys I pick for years before giving up on their breakout season
Any word on why Lachie sat out?
Dusty has done well against Carlton but the R1 game is almost meaningless in price changes and he's been very slow for the month after it the past couple of years. Just like him as an upgrade target. Basically he's fairly priced, imo, so he's not going to cost more and his history suggests he'll be available on the cheap.
Prefer the idea of starting a Dunkley or Marshall who have narratives where their scoring goes ballistic. Last year even with Cotchin, Prestia and Edwards out they were still pretty happy to have him strutting around up forward.
I do also think their is a case to be made that he's overpriced in the role he's playing. That 184 is one of the most ballistic of all the ratios last year. Dropping it even to 140 would knock 3 points off the average. I do think he's fairly priced but I can make a stronger case for him dropping to a 95 than going up to a 110.
Will make his way into my draft teams again I'm sure... He's so talented and he doesn't seem lazy but his inability to develop has been really frustrating to watch. I really like him though as a guy who probably can become my next Gray and Petracca, aka guys I pick for years before giving up on their breakout season
Any word on why Lachie sat out?
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I have been unable to anything apart from a training video
https://www.lions.com.au/video/8585...dal=true&type=video&publishFrom=1612498716001
https://www.lions.com.au/video/8585...dal=true&type=video&publishFrom=1612498716001
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Dogs assistant coach Steven King on Dunkley:-
Dunkley played only 12 games due to an ankle injury and despite a public trade request the Dogs held firm, setting the scene for a year of intrigue about how much midfield time he will be handed.
“He has been unbelievable,” said King.
“Even going through the process, Dunks is a pro and it’s amazing how 20 years ago how big a deal it could have been. But the professionalism now is so high. The players are so welcoming and they have made it as comfortable as they can. He has led by example from day one and presented himself well and is working so hard at training.
“Reflecting on his year, he had that bad syndesmosis and we asked him to fill a role in the ruck and he was so team-oriented that he accepted it, but we won’t do it this year.
“We will share the load with all our mids and with his forward craft and ability to cover ground he will play multiple positions for us and he will be accepting of that.”
Dunkley played only 12 games due to an ankle injury and despite a public trade request the Dogs held firm, setting the scene for a year of intrigue about how much midfield time he will be handed.
“He has been unbelievable,” said King.
“Even going through the process, Dunks is a pro and it’s amazing how 20 years ago how big a deal it could have been. But the professionalism now is so high. The players are so welcoming and they have made it as comfortable as they can. He has led by example from day one and presented himself well and is working so hard at training.
“Reflecting on his year, he had that bad syndesmosis and we asked him to fill a role in the ruck and he was so team-oriented that he accepted it, but we won’t do it this year.
“We will share the load with all our mids and with his forward craft and ability to cover ground he will play multiple positions for us and he will be accepting of that.”