Position SC 2021: Midfielder Discussion

[wogitalia]

Some interesting posts in here, for 50K more what do we think of Simpkin?

Started last season on fire then from memory he copped a headknock and a leg injury which really seemed to impact him.

Apart from Cripps he's probably the player I like most in that price range but is no where near as popular as Rowell or Taranto at this stage.

I really like Simpkin, I really don't like the complete unknown that is NM. First 6 weeks were exceptional, then rolled the ankle against Richmond and it took a solid month to get going again. Then got knocked out by Butters as well.

Two injuries a worry but played through it, though not sure that was a positive, probably would have been better with a rookie for the 3 weeks!

Concerns are the return of Cunnington (who would still be their best inside mid), the addition of Stephenson, improvement or load sharing with LDU, Anderson and Dumont but at the end of the day Cunnington is the main concern. Simpkin is the best of those young guys for mine but it's a big jump that next step and I'd love a bit more certainty around him making it.

 

[Herbie66]

Coooorect!

Rarely get to see NM play on the TV , but the one that excites me (maybe not SC wise) is Tarryn Thomas , he just oozes talent.

But I am hoping Phoenix Spicer plays (no idea who he is , but such a cool name) not quite as good as Hawego Paul Oea

 

[Santoz]

I really like Simpkin, I really don't like the complete unknown that is NM. First 6 weeks were exceptional, then rolled the ankle against Richmond and it took a solid month to get going again. Then got knocked out by Butters as well.

Two injuries a worry but played through it, though not sure that was a positive, probably would have been better with a rookie for the 3 weeks!

Concerns are the return of Cunnington (who would still be their best inside mid), the addition of Stephenson, improvement or load sharing with LDU, Anderson and Dumont but at the end of the day Cunnington is the main concern. Simpkin is the best of those young guys for mine but it's a big jump that next step and I'd love a bit more certainty around him making it.

Curious to know why you look past Simpkin's disposal (clanger count 67 last year) yet scrutinise Taranto's (38 last year) so distinctly?

 

[wogitalia]

Curious to know why you look past Simpkin's disposal (clanger count 67 last year) yet scrutinise Taranto's (38 last year) so distinctly?

Wouldn't say looking past but there's a couple of reasons I'm not as focused on it.

1. Simpkin is more contested (just the nature of the stat outside butchers).
2. Simpkin has a far better kicking efficiency to the point of being closer to the very good kicks in the position than Taranto is to even the bad kicks.
3. 40% of Simpkin's clangers are FA, only 27% for Taranto. This further supports point 2 of Taranto's terrible kicking being a major issue for his scoring. Simpkin's is very much an outlier, most players are around Taranto. Could be a discipline issue for Simpkin but I'd expect more an outlier that will correct, especially as he gets a bit more umpire respect of being a good player.
4. All the other good stuff that Simpkin does led to a very favourable ratio last year. He scored 5ppg less in DT to produce 9 more SC.

Basically I can see Simpkin significantly increasing his DT output and I've seen nothing to really suggest his ratio would fall significantly (positive 3 years running), basically if Simpkin and Taranto both got to 105 DT the reasonable expectation would be that Simpkin is 110+ in SC and Taranto is <100 based on their careers to date and underlying stats/ratio.

In short, Simpkin's problem is quantity and Taranto's problem, historically, is a distinct lack of quality. In general quantity is historically a far easier thing to fix and improve.

That doesn't mean Taranto can't fix it, being more contested and kicking less would both help him immensely as would, obviously, kicking the ball better. Although must be said being more contested may hurt his marks, a DT strength. Last year Taranto did play more contested than previously but his kicking got even worse so even that might not be the fix.

It's hard to understate how bad a kick Taranto actually has been. He's worse than almost every ruckman in the league (he can thank Darcy and ROB, just!), he's over 6% worse than Dunkley, 8% behind Dangerfield who are noted butchers, he's statistically the worst kick of the entire Giants' squad.

Again, I like Taranto but until I see some evidence that something has changed regarding his kicking it's really hard to see his ratio (his problem) change. He'll probably be in my DT, no one is tagging him and if anything other teams will try and get the ball in his hands compared to Kelly, Coniglio, Whitfield or Green but that doesn't help in SC if he kicks it to the other team!

 

[Broar]

I liked and had Simpkin last year when M/F. Yeah, he probably lost a little steam mid year. Probably not at keeper levels as just a mid.
There is another NM mid who hasn't been mentioned at all I don't think, he had 3x140's and a 170 last year and improved his average up 18 to 104. Would be a real POD.

Simpkin is still so young, another year on hopefully he's a little more wiser and can avoid those injuries (although he's so small so maybe not)

But if he were to have a clean run I can certainly see an increase of 10 or even 15 points per game. So a little value there.

On Anderson I just don't think he has enough quality to take the next step. I think the scaling certainly helped him last season as well, four games of 140+ will always be hard to repeat can see him dipping back under a 100avg.

Fixture wise they don't have the worst set of fixtures up until the bye it's a shame they have the first bye though.

 

[Zagbag]

He's just not a good pick if he's not producing keeper numbers. You can get significantly better production and cash generation per dollar for a lot less and you're not spending significantly more to get a keeper. I just think any slot that you're not getting either is a bad pick.

To be clear, I'm not saying Taranto is a bad pick. I'm saying if you're of the opinion that he's not more likely than not going to be a keeper, he's a bad pick. Someone like Heppell, with similar scoring history, will make 150k+ at 95, at 100 Taranto doesn't even make 100k, he's going to need some serious price spiking to generate a mediocre cash return and then he becomes really hard to cash out.

As a keeper pick, Taranto would be an exceptional starting pick. As a cash generation option he's an incredibly inefficient option. For mine you'd want to feel very strongly about him being a keeper to sacrifice the cash generation that, likely, many options offer over him.

Am enjoying your posting, but must admit I find the ‘my way or the highway’ schtick a bit curious - especially when you’re basically telling SuperCoach royalty that they don’t know what they’re doing! (I’m sure Dimma didn’t expect Travis Cloke to be a keeper, yet it worked out okay...)

Klo and Rowsus have written some good articles on what it takes to be a successful mid-pricer / stepping stone. From memory the pass mark was making a 100k (which was justified due to the high level of scoring). Could be worth checking out. I’d always pump for guns & rookies as a baseline - but thar doesn’t mean stepping stones can’t be used effectively (which, by the way, Heppell would be a good example).

 

[McLovin]

Am enjoying your posting, but must admit I find the ‘my way or the highway’ schtick a bit curious - especially when you’re basically telling SuperCoach royalty that they don’t know what they’re doing! (I’m sure Dimma didn’t expect Travis Cloke to be a keeper, yet it worked out okay...)

Klo and Rowsus have written some good articles on what it takes to be a successful mid-pricer / stepping stone. From memory the pass mark was making a 100k (which was justified due to the high level of scoring). Could be worth checking out. I’d always pump for guns & rookies as a baseline - but thar doesn’t mean stepping stones can’t be used effectively (which, by the way, Heppell would be a good example).

I find wogtalia's questioning of established SC wisdom, the midpricer category and so on refreshing personally. It's not something you personally have to agree with, but a lot of what they're saying is certainly well thought out and very much worth engaging with. There's no need to resort to 'credentialism', for want of a better word.

It's a sort of ruthless criticism of all that exists applied to SC. I'm all for it.

 

[Krak]

You gotta risk it for da biskit guys

 

[wogitalia]

Am enjoying your posting, but must admit I find the ‘my way or the highway’ schtick a bit curious - especially when you’re basically telling SuperCoach royalty that they don’t know what they’re doing! (I’m sure Dimma didn’t expect Travis Cloke to be a keeper, yet it worked out okay...)

Klo and Rowsus have written some good articles on what it takes to be a successful mid-pricer / stepping stone. From memory the pass mark was making a 100k (which was justified due to the high level of scoring). Could be worth checking out. I’d always pump for guns & rookies as a baseline - but thar doesn’t mean stepping stones can’t be used effectively (which, by the way, Heppell would be a good example).

I'd bet pretty good money that he thought there was at least a solid chance. Cloke did average 98 and 91 the two years prior which has always been keeper range for a forward, from memory the unique thing he did was cash him out when he shot way past that mark to start the season rather than hold him as his average went back to a more reasonable level as he was never a 110+ guy like he started and had always been a spike scorer. FWIW Taranto could totally achieve the same and Dimma is one of the few with the proven track record of having the cajones to actually move him on if he did.

Heppell makes sense as a pure cash cow which is where the difference lies. Taranto either hits keeper numbers or more than likely makes ~100k or less. IMO if you think the likelihood of keeper scoring is decent, that's probably a pretty good scenario, for me who thinks it's pretty unlikely it's a pretty bad scenario.

It's more a fundamental element that a rookie averaging 65 is going to outproduce Taranto scoring 102 on points and cash generation assuming you don't blow the extra cash. Each point costs you a certain amount of starting cash and a 102 from Taranto is a worse return than a middling rookie. Now the assumption that spending the 300k+ somewhere else will generate the 55+ points is perhaps arguable but the math on the return really isn't. Hence the focus on Taranto being a keeper, that's what you'd be happy to sacrifice cash generation and points for because you'd hope to more than makeup for it with the extra trades you now have and no rookie is reasonably going to be a keeper so it's not a realistic alternative.

It's basically 124k rookie scoring 65 + 61 (330k) if you breakeven on each dollar spent vs whatever Taranto scores. So assuming you invest the extra money into breakeven assets, Taranto's relative score would need to be 126 to match the rookie, not impossible but even for a month that's difficult. In comparison Heppell is 36 points off the rookie so it would be ~101 which I think is very possible for a month for him if fit and his JS and likely lower scoring variability closes that gap as well, my only real concern with Heppell as a pick is if his body is going to hold up and whether he is fit enough to score well. He makes a ton of sense as a cash cow, with even a very low end keeper chance tucked in, if both of those things look good. It's why I also like Preuss as an R3 option, the numbers to me say he's a high JS, great role cash cow who actually can push keeper realm in the event of an injury or collapse for Gawn/Grundy. Taranto makes sense as a keeper pick but, to me, not as a cash cow.

There's probably also the entire other side of the coin on this where you compare the Taranto type pick with picking a fully priced premium that could be argued. I wonder if Taranto at 102 would be a better season long investment than say Macrae at 110? Never really punched the numbers in that direction as I've pretty much always looked at mid-price picks as either a cash cow or a keeper which doesn't factor in the return compared to genuine premiums who don't move or fall. In a world with unlimited trades the Taranto pick would obviously win but I wonder if you would get gapped later in the season?

 

[Santoz]

@wogitalia, interested to hear your thoughts on Will Setterfield, more specifically looking at his scoring from Round 5 onwards last year when he mixed through the centre bounces a little more often and averaged nearly 100 to finish off the year.

Nearly cracked top 10 for tackles and his ball use seems to be good. His DT to SC ratio looked ridiculously good and I wonder with the extended quarters whether you think this will hurt his scoring or whether you feel he can improve again?

 

[wogitalia]

@wogitalia, interested to hear your thoughts on Will Setterfield, more specifically looking at his scoring from Round 5 onwards last year when he mixed through the centre bounces a little more often and averaged nearly 100 to finish off the year.

Nearly cracked top 10 for tackles and his ball use seems to be good. His DT to SC ratio looked ridiculously good and I wonder with the extended quarters whether you think this will hurt his scoring or whether you feel he can improve again?

I think in the same role he can keep that ~100 average and maybe even improve it a bit, there's a reason he was the 5th pick in the draft originally.

The issue for him is whether he can keep that role. I expect Cripps resumes his spot as the top dog and I'm expecting that Williams and Walsh are probably the next two in the line. I'm not sure if the stats back it up but it sure felt like Walsh and Setterfield kind of became the top two clearance guys over the last 6-10 weeks of the season and Curnow and Cripps both drifted to more peripheral roles. Meanwhile guys like Gibbons and Martin basically also stopped getting a lot of clearance work. I do expect that Setterfield can stay ahead of Curnow but the other 3 I'm not sold on him beating out.

He's been pretty one dimensional to date, very good in a contested midfield role, not very good anywhere outside that. Needs to improve the kicking a bit and get better at getting some of the easier football and he could push very high.

Certainly one to watch but I think he's probably in the same basket as Taranto for mine where I don't really see the keeper path very clearly. I probably prefer Taranto's more proven scoring history as well if dabbling in that price range in the mids. Still prefer that price group at other positions personally, taking 10-15 points off the keeper task makes a huge difference in the keeper likeliness. Saying Setterfield gets 95 doesn't feel farfetched, going for 110 seems a big ask.

A fit Yeo was the one I liked in that price range the most and I think Rowell is the go down there if heading into that territory, if for no other reason that if he were to be a 115 guy he's in an awful lot of teams that you're a long way behind the 8ball on.

 

[Ratzondix]

I'd bet pretty good money that he thought there was at least a solid chance. Cloke did average 98 and 91 the two years prior which has always been keeper range for a forward, from memory the unique thing he did was cash him out when he shot way past that mark to start the season rather than hold him as his average went back to a more reasonable level as he was never a 110+ guy like he started and had always been a spike scorer. FWIW Taranto could totally achieve the same and Dimma is one of the few with the proven track record of having the cajones to actually move him on if he did.

Heppell makes sense as a pure cash cow which is where the difference lies. Taranto either hits keeper numbers or more than likely makes ~100k or less. IMO if you think the likelihood of keeper scoring is decent, that's probably a pretty good scenario, for me who thinks it's pretty unlikely it's a pretty bad scenario.

It's more a fundamental element that a rookie averaging 65 is going to outproduce Taranto scoring 102 on points and cash generation assuming you don't blow the extra cash. Each point costs you a certain amount of starting cash and a 102 from Taranto is a worse return than a middling rookie. Now the assumption that spending the 300k+ somewhere else will generate the 55+ points is perhaps arguable but the math on the return really isn't. Hence the focus on Taranto being a keeper, that's what you'd be happy to sacrifice cash generation and points for because you'd hope to more than makeup for it with the extra trades you now have and no rookie is reasonably going to be a keeper so it's not a realistic alternative.

It's basically 124k rookie scoring 65 + 61 (330k) if you breakeven on each dollar spent vs whatever Taranto scores. So assuming you invest the extra money into breakeven assets, Taranto's relative score would need to be 126 to match the rookie, not impossible but even for a month that's difficult. In comparison Heppell is 36 points off the rookie so it would be ~101 which I think is very possible for a month for him if fit and his JS and likely lower scoring variability closes that gap as well, my only real concern with Heppell as a pick is if his body is going to hold up and whether he is fit enough to score well. He makes a ton of sense as a cash cow, with even a very low end keeper chance tucked in, if both of those things look good. It's why I also like Preuss as an R3 option, the numbers to me say he's a high JS, great role cash cow who actually can push keeper realm in the event of an injury or collapse for Gawn/Grundy. Taranto makes sense as a keeper pick but, to me, not as a cash cow.

There's probably also the entire other side of the coin on this where you compare the Taranto type pick with picking a fully priced premium that could be argued. I wonder if Taranto at 102 would be a better season long investment than say Macrae at 110? Never really punched the numbers in that direction as I've pretty much always looked at mid-price picks as either a cash cow or a keeper which doesn't factor in the return compared to genuine premiums who don't move or fall. In a world with unlimited trades the Taranto pick would obviously win but I wonder if you would get gapped later in the season?

I’ve been appreciating the well thought out posts. I don’t agree with 100% of your posts but that’s no different to anyone else’s posts. Certainly been an active contributor and given me a few things to think about and a few things I didn’t necessarily agree with initially have changed my decisions after I’ve had time to mull it over. Keep it coming I say. The more we move away from group think the better.

 

[Bermi]

Any thoughts of Coniglio bouncing back this year? (Mid, 27yo, $528,900)


The players who have a point to prove at every AFL club in 2021 (sen.com.au)

Stephen Coniglio

In 2020 ............(GWS) had secured their star midfielder Stephen Coniglio to a massive seven-year deal and had also installed him as captain, ......... the struggling Coniglio was dropped by Leon Cameron (in Rd17).........That is why the classy on-baller will want to bounce back by making a statement and leading the Giants back to the top eight in 2021.

Andrew Slevison

 

[Santoz]

I think in the same role he can keep that ~100 average and maybe even improve it a bit, there's a reason he was the 5th pick in the draft originally.

The issue for him is whether he can keep that role. I expect Cripps resumes his spot as the top dog and I'm expecting that Williams and Walsh are probably the next two in the line. I'm not sure if the stats back it up but it sure felt like Walsh and Setterfield kind of became the top two clearance guys over the last 6-10 weeks of the season and Curnow and Cripps both drifted to more peripheral roles. Meanwhile guys like Gibbons and Martin basically also stopped getting a lot of clearance work. I do expect that Setterfield can stay ahead of Curnow but the other 3 I'm not sold on him beating out.

He's been pretty one dimensional to date, very good in a contested midfield role, not very good anywhere outside that. Needs to improve the kicking a bit and get better at getting some of the easier football and he could push very high.

Certainly one to watch but I think he's probably in the same basket as Taranto for mine where I don't really see the keeper path very clearly. I probably prefer Taranto's more proven scoring history as well if dabbling in that price range in the mids. Still prefer that price group at other positions personally, taking 10-15 points off the keeper task makes a huge difference in the keeper likeliness. Saying Setterfield gets 95 doesn't feel farfetched, going for 110 seems a big ask.

A fit Yeo was the one I liked in that price range the most and I think Rowell is the go down there if heading into that territory, if for no other reason that if he were to be a 115 guy he's in an awful lot of teams that you're a long way behind the 8ball on.

FWIW I don't think Walsh & Williams will spend too much time inside. I think they'll be wingers who move into the middle here and there to change up the makeup every now and then. If Dow's game slowly improves, I can see the Blues giving him a few minutes inside here and there.

Thanks for the detailed response.

 

[Erek22]

Rarely get to see NM play on the TV , but the one that excites me (maybe not SC wise) is Tarryn Thomas , he just oozes talent.

But I am hoping Phoenix Spicer plays (no idea who he is , but such a cool name) not quite as good as Hawego Paul Oea

Spicer package coming up.. .

 

[Darkie]

Any thoughts of Coniglio bouncing back this year? (Mid, 27yo, $528,900)


The players who have a point to prove at every AFL club in 2021 (sen.com.au)

Stephen Coniglio

In 2020 ............(GWS) had secured their star midfielder Stephen Coniglio to a massive seven-year deal and had also installed him as captain, ......... the struggling Coniglio was dropped by Leon Cameron (in Rd17).........That is why the classy on-baller will want to bounce back by making a statement and leading the Giants back to the top eight in 2021.

Andrew Slevison

I would normally agree with this logic, but I think it would work better with someone who hadn’t played so poorly as a newly-installed captain that they got dropped. He “only” scored 115 on return as well.

I believe Matt Crouch went on a tear after he got dropped - he is priced dearer but would be of greater interest for me.

 

[jaca]

I agree with the take that Neale and co could be overpriced, my issue is that I get to a point when I have say 100k saved from picking the value choices and not much inspiration to spend it.

 

[Leroy]

I'm a bit late to Taranto as stepping stone/keeper/fail discussion, but I'm certainly looking at M6 for a stepping stone type player.

I've currently got Rowell in there - partly because he can swap down easily to anyone else, but also of the sub 500k Mids he seems the most likely to punch out a 20CP, 8 tackle, 2 goal 150+ SC game to spike up. One or two games like that and he reaches 600k => move him out for profit to a Dusty/Danger type before the long season wears him out.

Sure, he carries some big question marks but he's only 40k more than Taranto...

 

[Professor]

Any thoughts on Dom Sheed, averaged 89 with 5 tons last year, averaged 95 with 9 tons in 2019. With all the talk about Duggan with midfield minutes, surely this bloke gets a crack with an injury prone midfield, including Yeo, Shuey, Hutchings, priced at $478k

 

[McLovin]

Any thoughts of Coniglio bouncing back this year? (Mid, 27yo, $528,900)


The players who have a point to prove at every AFL club in 2021 (sen.com.au)

Stephen Coniglio

In 2020 ............(GWS) had secured their star midfielder Stephen Coniglio to a massive seven-year deal and had also installed him as captain, ......... the struggling Coniglio was dropped by Leon Cameron (in Rd17).........That is why the classy on-baller will want to bounce back by making a statement and leading the Giants back to the top eight in 2021.

Andrew Slevison

Nope. Absolutely terrible selection last year. Dropped, played as a defensive forward, disposal was possibly even worse than it usually is, generally looked like he wasn't interested in winning a hard ball most of the time. Strangely holding onto him didn't hurt me because most of the top sides owned him, that's the only positive I can think of.