I have done some Excel modelling of the two alternative SC starting strategies - Guns & Rookies vs Mid-Pricers or so-called Mid-Price Madness to see how they play out across a mock season.
These are the two starting line-ups I will use in the analysis. (Using round numbers there is an insignificant differences in the total spend and thru the rest of the number-crunching). All players are assigned to 5 categories (at the start) and both teams have $9M on the field & $1M on their bench. In these score-tables the middle columns represent the original price paid for the players.
View attachment 26093
Using the 2021 Magic Number (MN) of ~5374 these starting line-ups will necessarily generate the same total weekly score of 1800 as follows.
Now the assumptions I’ve used for the modelling.
- A-Rookies are priced to score at about 32.6 (175000/MN) but in the model we allow them to score at 60ppg. This will see A-Rooks move towards a price of $300,000.
- B-Rookies are priced to score at about 23.3 (125000/MN) but in the model we allow them to score at 49ppg. This will see B-Rooks move towards a price of $240,000.
- Mids are priced to score at about 71.7 (385300/MN) but in the model we allow them to score at 81.5ppg. The assumption is that all mids will be selected based on their perceived value at the start of the season. So, we are looking for 17 players who we think can score roughly 10 ppg better than their price range. This will allow the Mids to move towards a price of $430,000.
- All other scoring is as per the price paid (Salary/MN)
- Both teams have 3 big-guns from with to choose a captain. So allowing for 125ppg it is close to their nominal weekly score.
- Price rises will be achieved after 8 completed rounds.
- When a trading out B-Rooks they will have reached their $240K price level even if they have been brought in later in the season.
- Byes are not taken into account.
- Trading commences for both teams in round 9 – when starting rookies reach their maximum values.
The scoring assumptions, at 1-3 above, have been chosen because they are not unreasonable, but primarily so that both teams acquire ~425 free/value/bonus points. G&R… 8 X (60-32.6) + 8 X (49-23.3) and MPM… 17 X (81.5-71.7) + 2 X (60-32.6) + 8 X (49-23.3) This proves to be very instructive. I have also selected three big-guns for the MPM line-up to neutralise the captaincy issue and also because there is another 125 free points in there somewhere.
When factoring in assumptions 1-3 the 1800 point score-tables above rise and both teams are now projected to score ~2020 pts for the first 8 rounds.
View attachment 26095
At Round 9 both teams start trading out their fully fattened A-Rooks – 2 @ 300K and replace them (on the field) with a new B-Rook @ 125K & an Upgraded A-Rook @475K (ARU-Mid). This is the result for Round 9 – both teams boost their weekly score by 18 pts.
View attachment 26096
Now MPM doesn’t have any A-Rooks and has to adopt a different trading tactic while G&R doesn’t have much choice but to keep upgrading 2 more A-Rooks. MPM sell off one of their fully fattened B-Rooks – 1 @ 240K and one of their fully fattened Mids @ $430K replacing them with a new bench B-Rook @ 125K & a Gun @ 545K. This is the result for Round 10.
View attachment 26097
Again the scores are virtually the same and continue on this way with the same trading pattern– this is the round 12 result - after G&R have sold off all of their A-Rooks. The scores are continuing to increase in tandem. You will notice that the purchase price totals start to diverge, but the MPM side doesn’t trade out as many of its bonus points, so the scoring stays on a par.
View attachment 26098
Now G&R start cashing out their fattened B-Rooks 2 @ $240K for a new bench B-Rook @ $125K & a new upgraded mid @ $355K (BRU-Mid). It will take G&R 4 rounds to bring in enough of these upgrade mids to remove all on-field rookies. Meanwhile MPM keeps upgrading a $385K Mid to a $535K Gun each week. This is the Round 13 result.
View attachment 26099
This table reflects the scores after 3 more trading iterations - at Round 16.
View attachment 26100
There are slight rounding di*** in my figurework that makes it look like MPM is just in front – but basically the teams stay in lock-step –
under these value assumptions. Also, both teams have used the same number of trades.
If my workings hold up, it seems to me that there is no answer to the question of which is the better starting strategy. It seems to be the wrong question. (This isn’t what I was originally expecting, but the more you think thru the maths, the more it makes sense.) The real issue is perhaps how much
value you can pack into your starting team.
In this analysis, if MPM could squeeze another bonus point out of their mids – go from 81.5 to 82.5ppg, it would be hundreds of points ahead of G&R by now. Similarly, if we have a season with lots of great available rookies then the G&R A-Rooks could be expected to achieve more than 60ppg, and then they would edge ahead.
I don’t have much evidence to support my 10ppg bonus for Mid-Pricers, but I think the assumptions about Rooks are reasonable – refer to posts 1823 – 1845 in the thread - Super Early Strategy, Team & Player Discussions.
If it is ultimately all about value selections, then the start of the season is the point at which most value options are on the table. As the season wears on, each week there will be just a few rookies reaching their bubble and just a few injury-affected prices, but most players will be quickly priced to their scoring levels.
PS. This is the sort of exercise in which you always make some sort of math error, so I have checked it thru a few times. Hopefully there’s no serious bugs in there – as I said the results play out in a way that I think is mathematically logical.
