Position SC 2021: Midfielder Discussion

[Backbone]

I think Steele does potentially drop off, but I think it's the same case for all elite mids.

I don't watch a lot of football but Steele was insanely impressive as a non-owner last season. I think there's room for improvement as he keeps up a more attacking midfielder stance which could counter the lower tog %.

He played a little like king Cripps at his best
I just think he’ll get more attention this year
His stats were good but not elite
I think his impact in games was higher with lower time and indicates an inflation in what his scores may of been with longer quarters

I look at his averages to Cripps last year
I’m in no way shape or form saying Cripps had a year as good as Steele I’m just looking at numbers

Steele 21.9 disposals cripps 20.2 discarding the last injury game so stats on footy wire will be slightly off

Steele 3.7 marks Cripps 2.5
Steele 5.4 tackles Cripps 5.0
Steele 5.0 clearances Cripps 6.2
Steele 2.6 clangers Cripps 3.6
Steele 3.3 inside 50’s Cripps 3.3
Steele .6 goals Cripps .4
Steele 11.0 contested possessions Cripps 12.4
Steele 71% disposal efficiency Cripps 67%
Steele 5.0 score involvements Cripps 5.0
Steele 270 metres gained Cripps 230
Steele 3.5 turnovers Cripps 3.2
Steele .4 contested marks Cripps 0.7

Steele averaged 122.5
Cripps averaged 101.9 bar that injury game in the last round.

If you’re telling me Steele’s stats are and were 20 points better then Cripps then I must be missing something. To think how harsh we were on Cripps last year and he basically matched Steele in all of these stats. I think Steele was the Beneficiary of being the major contributor in a winning team with average scorers around him through scaling. He was great but to think Cripps with his bung knee and shoulder nearly matched him in Steeles breakout year makes me think that Steele won’t be averaging 120+ again. Yes he polled well in the brownlow and all of that and I think he’s a fantastic player I just think champion data scored him higher then what the stats actually replicate.

Who else thinks Cripps will average more then him this year 😏

 

[Shaunpro1]

He played a little like king Cripps at his best
I just think he’ll get more attention this year
His stats were good but not elite
I think his impact in games was higher with lower time and indicates an inflation in what his scores may of been with longer quarters

I look at his averages to Cripps last year
I’m in no way shape or form saying Cripps had a year as good as Steele I’m just looking at numbers

Steele 21.9 disposals cripps 20.2 discarding the last injury game so stats on footy wire will be slightly off

Steele 3.7 marks Cripps 2.5
Steele 5.4 tackles Cripps 5.0
Steele 5.0 clearances Cripps 6.2
Steele 2.6 clangers Cripps 3.6
Steele 3.3 inside 50’s Cripps 3.3
Steele .6 goals Cripps .4
Steele 11.0 contested possessions Cripps 12.4
Steele 71% disposal efficiency Cripps 67%
Steele 5.0 score involvements Cripps 5.0
Steele 270 metres gained Cripps 230
Steele 3.5 turnovers Cripps 3.2
Steele .4 contested marks Cripps 0.7

Steele averaged 122.5
Cripps averaged 101.9 bar that injury game in the last round.

If you’re telling me Steele’s stats are and were 20 points better then Cripps then I must be missing something. To think how harsh we were on Cripps last year and he basically matched Steele in all of these stats. I think Steele was the Beneficiary of being the major contributor in a winning team with average scorers around him through scaling. He was great but to think Cripps with his bung knee and shoulder nearly matched him in Steeles breakout year makes me think that Steele won’t be averaging 120+ again. Yes he polled well in the brownlow and all of that and I think he’s a fantastic player I just think champion data scored him higher then what the stats actually replicate.

Who else thinks Cripps will average more then him this year 😏

SC isnt a pure raw numbers game so these are fairly irrelevant, anyone who watched Steele last year would have concluded he was the far better player, not sure a 25 year old with elite endurance is negatively impacted by longer quarters either has genuine scope to be even better in 2021.

 

[Eagling]

He played a little like king Cripps at his best
I just think he’ll get more attention this year
His stats were good but not elite
I think his impact in games was higher with lower time and indicates an inflation in what his scores may of been with longer quarters

I look at his averages to Cripps last year
I’m in no way shape or form saying Cripps had a year as good as Steele I’m just looking at numbers

Steele 21.9 disposals cripps 20.2 discarding the last injury game so stats on footy wire will be slightly off

Steele 3.7 marks Cripps 2.5
Steele 5.4 tackles Cripps 5.0
Steele 5.0 clearances Cripps 6.2
Steele 2.6 clangers Cripps 3.6
Steele 3.3 inside 50’s Cripps 3.3
Steele .6 goals Cripps .4
Steele 11.0 contested possessions Cripps 12.4
Steele 71% disposal efficiency Cripps 67%
Steele 5.0 score involvements Cripps 5.0
Steele 270 metres gained Cripps 230
Steele 3.5 turnovers Cripps 3.2
Steele .4 contested marks Cripps 0.7

Steele averaged 122.5
Cripps averaged 101.9 bar that injury game in the last round.

If you’re telling me Steele’s stats are and were 20 points better then Cripps then I must be missing something. To think how harsh we were on Cripps last year and he basically matched Steele in all of these stats. I think Steele was the Beneficiary of being the major contributor in a winning team with average scorers around him through scaling. He was great but to think Cripps with his bung knee and shoulder nearly matched him in Steeles breakout year makes me think that Steele won’t be averaging 120+ again. Yes he polled well in the brownlow and all of that and I think he’s a fantastic player I just think champion data scored him higher then what the stats actually replicate.

Who else thinks Cripps will average more then him this year 😏

Cripps is winning the Brownlow and averaging 140 ofc he'll beat out Steele.

 

[Chumpion]

He played a little like king Cripps at his best
I just think he’ll get more attention this year
His stats were good but not elite
I think his impact in games was higher with lower time and indicates an inflation in what his scores may of been with longer quarters

I look at his averages to Cripps last year
I’m in no way shape or form saying Cripps had a year as good as Steele I’m just looking at numbers

Steele 21.9 disposals cripps 20.2 discarding the last injury game so stats on footy wire will be slightly off

Steele 3.7 marks Cripps 2.5
Steele 5.4 tackles Cripps 5.0
Steele 5.0 clearances Cripps 6.2
Steele 2.6 clangers Cripps 3.6
Steele 3.3 inside 50’s Cripps 3.3
Steele .6 goals Cripps .4
Steele 11.0 contested possessions Cripps 12.4
Steele 71% disposal efficiency Cripps 67%
Steele 5.0 score involvements Cripps 5.0
Steele 270 metres gained Cripps 230
Steele 3.5 turnovers Cripps 3.2
Steele .4 contested marks Cripps 0.7

Steele averaged 122.5
Cripps averaged 101.9 bar that injury game in the last round.

If you’re telling me Steele’s stats are and were 20 points better then Cripps then I must be missing something. To think how harsh we were on Cripps last year and he basically matched Steele in all of these stats. I think Steele was the Beneficiary of being the major contributor in a winning team with average scorers around him through scaling. He was great but to think Cripps with his bung knee and shoulder nearly matched him in Steeles breakout year makes me think that Steele won’t be averaging 120+ again. Yes he polled well in the brownlow and all of that and I think he’s a fantastic player I just think champion data scored him higher then what the stats actually replicate.

Who else thinks Cripps will average more then him this year 😏

The thing that stands out to me is the differences in some of the stats that would lead to zero or negative points for Cripps. Averaging an extra clanger per game as well as reduced DE% and lower meters gained (for a disposal to be effective it needs to go 40+ meters to a contest or better, or be less than 40m and the team retain possession).

4 key categories in the comparison are:

Tackles 4 points
Clanger -4 points
Effective Kick 4 points
Ineffective Kick 0 points

Half a tackle a game (+2.. full tackle is +4) and probably 1-2 more effective disposals a game - let's split the difference and say 1 effective kick (based on DE and meter gained) - would be +4.. then Cripps with an extra clanger is -4.. that's 10 points right there. Then include the other categories that aren't in the stats above as well as scaling for impact (Steele did have some great 1st halves) and the scoring difference doesn't seem as extreme.

Also keep in mind some of the statistical categories don't actually equate to more points - eg, I don't think a clearance itself is worth any points.. but the actions to make up a clearance (looseball/hardball get, disposal, etc) make up the points. So one clearance could be 2 points (collect from HO 2 points, ineffective kick 0 points) where as another clearance could be 8.5 points (hardball get 4.5 points, effective kick 4 points).

Personally watching Steele play last year I thought he was scored fairly accurately in terms of impact, the only thing I'm a bit nervous on was the tendency for early impact in games to scale higher. There was a lot of games he was 80+ at HT, which in full length quarters could be more like 65-70. But that said, I think his role is good and he hits the stat categories that a SC friendly. I also think a few years of run with roles on the best mids has taught him a lot about how to play that role and he's benefitting from that too!

 

[Shaunpro1]

All I hear is price drop price drop price drop this off season, what are peoples plans if it just doesnt happen? I really dont think the real top end elite category are going to be too impacted by having 16 extra minutes of footy, especially when interchange caps means theyll continue to spend more time out there.

 

[Cricket98]

All I hear is price drop price drop price drop this off season, what are peoples plans if it just doesnt happen? I really dont think the real top end elite category are going to be too impacted by having 16 extra minutes of footy, especially when interchange caps means theyll continue to spend more time out there.

Hi Shaun

This is a comparison of midfielders over the past 5 seasons. As you can see from the amount of mids with 100+ averages in 2020 (42, compared with 30-31 in normal length seasons), and mids with 110+ averages (17, compared with 8-11 in normal length seasons), clearly the scaling has benefited the elite tier players, with less acts in the games to reward the 3300 points per game to. The majority, if not all of the premium mids will see a scoring and price reduction, as the bell curve tightens up once more.

 

[pizza safety]

I think Steele does potentially drop off, but I think it's the same case for all elite mids.

I don't watch a lot of football but Steele was insanely impressive as a non-owner last season. I think there's room for improvement as he keeps up a more attacking midfielder stance which could counter the lower tog %.

I think some of the mids and players in general are more appropriately priced than others. Macrae, Cripps, JKelly and Fyfe have averaged either at or above their price for a few years and are statistically stable as choices. I know some of those guys have injury risks and don't pick JKelly and Fyfe togther, but they are quite unlikely to average 5-10 pts below their price compared to some others.

Petracca and Steele could be great next year, but should be avoided as starting picks in my opinion. When you have that level of improvement in a single season there's always a chance of some regression the following year and they haven't shown that they can justify their price for several years like some others.

 

[pizza safety]

He played a little like king Cripps at his best
I just think he’ll get more attention this year
His stats were good but not elite
I think his impact in games was higher with lower time and indicates an inflation in what his scores may of been with longer quarters

I look at his averages to Cripps last year
I’m in no way shape or form saying Cripps had a year as good as Steele I’m just looking at numbers

Steele 21.9 disposals cripps 20.2 discarding the last injury game so stats on footy wire will be slightly off

Steele 3.7 marks Cripps 2.5
Steele 5.4 tackles Cripps 5.0
Steele 5.0 clearances Cripps 6.2
Steele 2.6 clangers Cripps 3.6
Steele 3.3 inside 50’s Cripps 3.3
Steele .6 goals Cripps .4
Steele 11.0 contested possessions Cripps 12.4
Steele 71% disposal efficiency Cripps 67%
Steele 5.0 score involvements Cripps 5.0
Steele 270 metres gained Cripps 230
Steele 3.5 turnovers Cripps 3.2
Steele .4 contested marks Cripps 0.7

Steele averaged 122.5
Cripps averaged 101.9 bar that injury game in the last round.

If you’re telling me Steele’s stats are and were 20 points better then Cripps then I must be missing something. To think how harsh we were on Cripps last year and he basically matched Steele in all of these stats. I think Steele was the Beneficiary of being the major contributor in a winning team with average scorers around him through scaling. He was great but to think Cripps with his bung knee and shoulder nearly matched him in Steeles breakout year makes me think that Steele won’t be averaging 120+ again. Yes he polled well in the brownlow and all of that and I think he’s a fantastic player I just think champion data scored him higher then what the stats actually replicate.

Who else thinks Cripps will average more then him this year 😏

I've talked about this elsewhere, but Steele definitely benefited to the tune of 5-8 points from the shorter quarters and from being the main man in a good team. Longer quarters, the arrival of Brad Crouch and more tags this year automatically knocks a decent chunk off his average.

At least with Petracca, and I don't endorse starting him either, he was tagged 4 or 5 times last year and showed he was capable of handling it. He does have the same concern about shorter quarters however, as the shorter quarters might have exaggerated his improved fitness.

They were both probably top 8 players in the league last year and this is in no way me saying they weren't elite.

 

[Backbone]

The thing that stands out to me is the differences in some of the stats that would lead to zero or negative points for Cripps. Averaging an extra clanger per game as well as reduced DE% and lower meters gained (for a disposal to be effective it needs to go 40+ meters to a contest or better, or be less than 40m and the team retain possession).

4 key categories in the comparison are:

Tackles 4 points
Clanger -4 points
Effective Kick 4 points
Ineffective Kick 0 points

Half a tackle a game (+2.. full tackle is +4) and probably 1-2 more effective disposals a game - let's split the difference and say 1 effective kick (based on DE and meter gained) - would be +4.. then Cripps with an extra clanger is -4.. that's 10 points right there. Then include the other categories that aren't in the stats above as well as scaling for impact (Steele did have some great 1st halves) and the scoring difference doesn't seem as extreme.

Also keep in mind some of the statistical categories don't actually equate to more points - eg, I don't think a clearance itself is worth any points.. but the actions to make up a clearance (looseball/hardball get, disposal, etc) make up the points. So one clearance could be 2 points (collect from HO 2 points, ineffective kick 0 points) where as another clearance could be 8.5 points (hardball get 4.5 points, effective kick 4 points).

Personally watching Steele play last year I thought he was scored fairly accurately in terms of impact, the only thing I'm a bit nervous on was the tendency for early impact in games to scale higher. There was a lot of games he was 80+ at HT, which in full length quarters could be more like 65-70. But that said, I think his role is good and he hits the stat categories that a SC friendly. I also think a few years of run with roles on the best mids has taught him a lot about how to play that role and he's benefitting from that too!

Steele was great I loved watching him play

if his numbers were through the roof and he was top 3 in possessions (24th) clearances (16th) contested possies (10th) tackles (4th) etc I would’ve understood it better but he wasn’t. Just looks ordinary in comparison to Oliver who spiked but was 9th 1st 1st and 6th in those categories which makes it much easier to understand for averaging 120+

If he played for the dogs last year he would’ve averaged 110ish but because he was in a low scoring team that won lots of games he was scaled higher.

Upgrade target for mine. If he backs it up you’ll be way in front of me and I’ll look silly but I’m happy to wait

 

[The Saltshaker]

CBA's 60-80% in last 5 games except round 15, scored ave 85-90 in this games (ex round 15). Seemed to go on a frenzy in our premiership year and never backed it up. Gaff is much more the link man and racks up possession for that role, hence why he is targeted for the tag. Sheed splits mid and fwd and doesn't get the ball as much.

Gaff will stay close to full TOG as he is super fit, was highest mid last year with 95% tog.

Sheed had him in 2019 got robbed 10sc i reckon, gets 30 + 1 to 2 goals just doesnt score well as outside play, bugger all tackles

 

[The Saltshaker]

Did you get to see footage of the game somewhere ? Or were you in attendance ?

If there's footage, where is it accessible ? Would love to see it !

Yeah Goodie here ya go bloke

https://www.carltonfc.com.au/video/...dal=true&type=video&publishFrom=1613156400001

 

[Goodie's Guns]

Yeah Goodie here ya go bloke

https://www.carltonfc.com.au/video/...dal=true&type=video&publishFrom=1613156400001

Thanks mate, I caught the goals/match highlights that someone posted yesterday. Was very good viewing!
Some ordinary and lacklustre defensive efforts (to be expected in intra clubs) saw some players dance through the masses and slot goals haha. But nonetheless, Walsh looked pretty sharp from what I saw, with a couple of very nice finishes.

 

[Wheedus]

I actually noticed Cripps more. Looks cherry ripe.

 

[Connoisseur]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1361592348153552902

 

[Wheedus]

PS - another great soundtrack. Seriously good funk. I think I’m enjoying the music more than the footy this preseason.

 

[wogitalia]

People underrate kicking over handballing and the difference it entails, especially doing it well. Effective kicks are worth +4 compared to +1.5 for a handball. Steele kicked at 62% last year, Cripps is at 52% and Oliver 54%. That's 2 points on Oliver and 8 points on Cripps per game on that alone. Goals are a +8, which is 3.1 points on Oliver and 1.5 on Cripps a game. Clangers are -4 which is another +6 to Oliver and +4 to Cripps.

Those stats alone are 11.1 and 13.5 points of variance to make up for an extra posession here or there.

Throw in that his team were better and that's basically the variance explained. The majority of the time if two players are equal the one in the better team is going to score better because they receive the scaling, they're more likely to get momentum plays and all that funky stuff we can only hope to ever get clarity on.

That said there's absolutely reasons to not start him but his stats are actually very reasonable. His ratio was 1.34, lower than Neale, Fyfe, Jelly, Dangerfield, Petracca or Bont, the same basically as Macrae, slightly higher than Oliver, Pendles (surprisingly low) and Mitchell and considerably higher than Cripps (who played badly), Merrett or Hunter. I'd say he's right in line with where you'd rank him on class/contested for that group. Fyfe was the biggest outlier by far in the group, at 1.5 he's over 10% clear of Danger and 12% clear of Neale.

 

[Shaunpro1]

I dont take much out of intra clubs, watched bits and pieces of a couple so far and they are all running around like their opponents are witches hats.

 

[freowho]

What are people's thoughts on Bont this year? With a lack of good-value options in the midfield and my sense being that Macrae is going to spend more time stationed on the wing with Treloar arriving, I've currently got him at M2.

In a sense it feels too risky to start either Bont or Macrae and it seems like waiting is the better option with Treloar being added to the team and the amount of point sharing that will go on.

At the same time, turning 26 next year, Bont should be coming into his absolute prime and if he is ever going to be a 120+ average player it is likely to happen in the next two years. There is obviously no way of knowing whether that can happen, but he does have decent potential to be that kind of player, and that's not true for everyone averaging 110-120.

I'm also open to starting Macrae, but I really feel he's going to spend more time playing outside midfield.

Bit of a simple view, but if you place Bont's scores from last year onto this years fixture he has a nightmare start. Could be a cheap trade in target.

 

[GrainFedBeef]

Gaff will stay close to full TOG as he is super fit, was highest mid last year with 95% tog.

Sheed had him in 2019 got robbed 10sc i reckon, gets 30 + 1 to 2 goals just doesnt score well as outside play, bugger all tackles

Gaff TOG 87% in 2019

 

[Toothless Tigers]

I am finally understanding the Rowell pick!

With all of the best mids greatly overpriced it makes guys like Rowell and Taranto far less risky than it would in years gone by. Reason.
Knowing that some premo mids are going to drop 50-100k, even if Rowell doesn't come out guns blazing GC have a great run after their initial game vs WC so he might make a cool 50-75k anyway, throw in the same kind of drop on a guy like Neale, Oliver, Steele and you have made your 150k for the trade.

I am really coming around to this approach in the midfield this season.

Cripps is $523,700 compared to Matt Rowell $495,100.