Position 2021: Ruck Discussion

Which ruck setup are you planning on starting with?

  • Gawn/Grundy/Flynn

    Votes: 82 47.4%
  • Gawn/Grundy/Meek

    Votes: 5 2.9%
  • Gawn/Grundy/Hunter

    Votes: 8 4.6%
  • Gawn/Flynn/Meek

    Votes: 25 14.5%
  • Gawn/Flynn/Hunter

    Votes: 11 6.4%
  • Gawn/Meek/Hunter

    Votes: 2 1.2%
  • Grundy/Flynn/Meek

    Votes: 14 8.1%
  • Grundy/Flynn/Hunter

    Votes: 9 5.2%
  • Grundy/Meek/Hunter

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Other

    Votes: 17 9.8%

  • Total voters
    173
Joined
15 Mar 2019
Messages
15,034
Likes
57,916
AFL Club
Hawthorn
I think this kind of logic is where people get themselves into trouble with the rucks.

Why pair what is a relatively good pick in Flynn (prima facie) with what seems to be a relatively terrible pick in McEvoy.

This obviously changes if McEvoy is the lone ruck and thus actually makes sense as a stand alone pick but as a defender he's overpriced if anything.




Don't really like this logic either, 5 years of development surely trumps an injury as a rookie option if the JS/Scoring potential is there. History of "rookie" rucks is pretty sound when rucking, last year we had Draper at 70, ROB at 95 in 2019, Grundy at 75, Sinclair at 65 (not #1), Darcy at 79 and Naismith at 70 for comparisons of many various circumstances, Draper probably the most direct but he had a ruck share situation as well and did score better when one out.



That's an excellent on-field starter. If you picked say Taranto he'd need to average 132 to provide equivalent value and cash generation for the money spent. If all your rookies and midpricers are providing +47 points on their price you're going to have a pretty amazing season, especially to the point where you're not thinking that's starter worthy (aka you've got enough better rookies to start instead)



And here is the real flaw in the plan. If Mummy wasn't there and you were looking at a Flynn > Preuss equation down the road, I think it's much stronger. The lack of coverage with a hardened senior body right there lurking is certainly the massive risk and the reason to look at him as an R3 instead of an R2.

He's an outstanding pick at r2 though if he scores at 65+ and definitely makes starting either Gawn or Grundy disposable if we were to get an indicator that his JS was reliable.




Lobb hasn't shown better scoring in the ruck, he's basically been the perfect second ruck where he gains from the advantage against weaker 2nd rucks but as a first ruck he gets beaten up on.

Like McEvoy, he screams of ruining a good pick by making a bad pick as a reaction to the other pick.




Agree on the risk element and that Marshall would have made it a slam dunk pick at 65+ projections but if Flynn is scoring at those levels he's actually at the trade out Gawn/Grundy to get him in level of production so I think your requirements are a bit extreme, if he flashed that kind of potential there's almost no way you can't not start him given the value he'd represent.

Gawn isn't really a strong starting pick, his realistic best case is he falls back to 135 and basically protects his starting value and is a strong captain choice. He's at best an efficient allocation of starting resources. Grundy has a bit more upside but still is most likely a slightly underpriced starting pick who will defend his starting value. Basically their value lies in that no one else really presents a better option and that starting them is a lot easier than trading into them around moving parts. I say all this as someone who has had that GG pairing in every draft as well but the reality is you'd hope to do better at every other position with the Gawn money than you're likely to do with Gawn.




Reckon he should compare pretty favourably to Jackson last year or Kreuzer in his first year who went at 58/60 respectively. At his price that's not a great outcome though and would probably need to display an ability to spike his scoring at the very least. From what I've seen of him he actually reminds me quite a bit of Kreuzer as a player, would want to somehow have excellent job security to justify the premium given he seems a pretty low ceiling scorer.
I actually agree - if you're picking Flynn at R2, the issue is there's not a lot of decent DPP coverage. I wouldn't say McEvoy is a great pick for backup, especially playing mainly as a defender, he was just the first DPP ruck I thought of. Having a look since - there's not many options at all once you get past Marshall. Williams/Treacy combo might be an option if they are named. Not sold on Thilthorpe.
 
Joined
18 Jan 2016
Messages
735
Likes
2,127
AFL Club
Adelaide
Gawn isn't really a strong starting pick, his realistic best case is he falls back to 135 and basically protects his starting value and is a strong captain choice. He's at best an efficient allocation of starting resources. Grundy has a bit more upside but still is most likely a slightly underpriced starting pick who will defend his starting value. Basically their value lies in that no one else really presents a better option and that starting them is a lot easier than trading into them around moving parts. I say all this as someone who has had that GG pairing in every draft as well but the reality is you'd hope to do better at every other position with the Gawn money than you're likely to do with Gawn.

.
If last year taught us anything its to start the two of the best ruckman of all time. He's not just a strong captain choice, he's the first captain choice. If we're basing the pick on point efficiency against price then yes, he's not the greatest pick. However you are then leaving yourself vulnerable to any ruck shenanigans if mummy gets a game with Flynn, and also leaving it to timing mostly out of your control to get R2 to Gawn. You might go 7 games without Gawn, you might go half a season, or it may take 3-4 trades to get there. Gawn's early fixture looks like a stroll in the park for him, with the first 3 clubs missing ruckman (No Darcy, Marshall or Preuss). No Grundy/NN til after his bye.
 
Joined
18 Jul 2016
Messages
3,770
Likes
26,259
AFL Club
Sydney
If last year taught us anything its to start the two of the best ruckman of all time. He's not just a strong captain choice, he's the first captain choice. If we're basing the pick on point efficiency against price then yes, he's not the greatest pick. However you are then leaving yourself vulnerable to any ruck shenanigans if mummy gets a game with Flynn, and also leaving it to timing mostly out of your control to get R2 to Gawn. You might go 7 games without Gawn, you might go half a season, or it may take 3-4 trades to get there. Gawn's early fixture looks like a stroll in the park for him, with the first 3 clubs missing ruckman (No Darcy, Marshall or Preuss). No Grundy/NN til after his bye.
Oh no doubt, hence why despite what I've said he's remained in my side the whole way but he'd go in a heartbeat if I thought Flynn was a 75+ and safe rookie to start because even Gawn's not that good :)

Love Gawn, for me the single biggest reason I start him is to avoid the moving parts on his upgrade. Sure it's easy to budget the 3 trades to get to him, easy to map out the path and the cows but you just can't plan for the curve-balls that SC throws at you and you can quickly get utterly derailed from chasing him. It's why I hate the "get him for 100k cheaper" mentality, I mean you might, historically over the past three years it hasn't even been possible, but even if he does drop 100k, you still need the perfect storm of it happening at the right time, you having no injuries/suspensions/issues to deal with and the trades and ripened cash cows to get there all coming together at that right time, that's a tough scenario at the best of times.

Ultimately though every position you can generate more points than the cost is points closer to winning it all and as good as Gawn is, that applies to his spot in my draft teams as well and I'm one of the few who thinks he's going to score ~135 this season.

I do hope Flynn makes an exceptional R3 and presents the conundrum of whether I should trade out Gawn to start him as those are the kind of problems that I'm all too happy to embrace :)
 

Goodie's Guns

Leadership Group
Joined
21 May 2012
Messages
22,312
Likes
31,158
AFL Club
Hawthorn
It's why I hate the "get him for 100k cheaper" mentality, I mean you might, historically over the past three years it hasn't even been possible, but even if he does drop 100k, you still need the perfect storm of it happening at the right time, you having no injuries/suspensions/issues to deal with and the trades and ripened cash cows to get there all coming together at that right time, that's a tough scenario at the best of times.
100% this! Annoys me as well this mentality. Its a common phrase on some SC podcasts that do the rounds, "He's not one to start, Player XYZ is always $50K/$75K/$100K cheaper come Round 6". That's all well and good, but the amount of things you need to go right across those first six weeks to be able to execute something remotely like a deliberate plan to get Player XYZ is absolutely ludicrous. Particularly when we can barely have our trade plans remain the same day to day these days, only need to have a look at the injury damage to relevant players across the last week, and that's only one aspect, not even mentioning needing rookies to hold their spot, make cash of some form, make significant enough cash and be fattened enough to trade at the exact right time.

That's trying to play perfect SuperCoach, and it's not often we ever get to experience that.
 
Joined
9 Aug 2012
Messages
40,127
Likes
151,432
AFL Club
Carlton
ST KILDA has committed to handing a list spot to ex-Adelaide listed ruckman Paul Hunter as it takes stock on its talls following Rowan Marshall's foot injury.

Hunter was impressive in the Saints' intraclub on Thursday playing for the 'A' side with Marshall and other ruckmen Paddy Ryder and Shaun McKernan sidelined.

It was a performance that sealed Hunter's future at the club, the Saints deciding on Friday to extend the 200cm big man's two-week train-on stint
into a permanent stay for 2021.
 
Joined
26 Jun 2019
Messages
2,559
Likes
9,517
AFL Club
Richmond
Oh no doubt, hence why despite what I've said he's remained in my side the whole way but he'd go in a heartbeat if I thought Flynn was a 75+ and safe rookie to start because even Gawn's not that good :)

Love Gawn, for me the single biggest reason I start him is to avoid the moving parts on his upgrade. Sure it's easy to budget the 3 trades to get to him, easy to map out the path and the cows but you just can't plan for the curve-balls that SC throws at you and you can quickly get utterly derailed from chasing him. It's why I hate the "get him for 100k cheaper" mentality, I mean you might, historically over the past three years it hasn't even been possible, but even if he does drop 100k, you still need the perfect storm of it happening at the right time, you having no injuries/suspensions/issues to deal with and the trades and ripened cash cows to get there all coming together at that right time, that's a tough scenario at the best of times.

Ultimately though every position you can generate more points than the cost is points closer to winning it all and as good as Gawn is, that applies to his spot in my draft teams as well and I'm one of the few who thinks he's going to score ~135 this season.

I do hope Flynn makes an exceptional R3 and presents the conundrum of whether I should trade out Gawn to start him as those are the kind of problems that I'm all too happy to embrace :)
I've got Flynn at R3 and Treacy at F8, once Flynn has done his job flick Treacy to R3 and upgrade/downgrade Flynn to any line depending on DPP. I'm hoping this will save me a trade during the season.
 
Joined
7 Jul 2019
Messages
1,466
Likes
4,240
AFL Club
Richmond
ST KILDA has committed to handing a list spot to ex-Adelaide listed ruckman Paul Hunter as it takes stock on its talls following Rowan Marshall's foot injury.

Hunter was impressive in the Saints' intraclub on Thursday playing for the 'A' side with Marshall and other ruckmen Paddy Ryder and Shaun McKernan sidelined.

It was a performance that sealed Hunter's future at the club, the Saints deciding on Friday to extend the 200cm big man's two-week train-on stint
into a permanent stay for 2021.
Paul Hunter, very interesting. I won't be picking Treacy with Flynn, Hunter and possibly Fullerton likely to play games.
Is this the year like the Biclav rookie year?
 
Joined
9 Aug 2012
Messages
40,127
Likes
151,432
AFL Club
Carlton
Paul Hunter, very interesting. I won't be picking Treacy with Flynn, Hunter and possibly Fullerton likely to play games.
Is this the year like the Biclav rookie year?
Not sure he gets many games if Marshall is named round 1, they still have Ryder as backup, definitely good insurance if anything else occurs.
 
Joined
21 Mar 2019
Messages
2,295
Likes
6,291
Not sure he gets many games if Marshall is named round 1, they still have Ryder as backup, definitely good insurance if anything else occurs.
I'm no brain foot surgeon obviously, but from the news about Marshall being totally off his feet for the next 3-4 weeks with a stress reaction I'd guess that there is no chance of him being named for round 1, as he would only have two weeks to progress though what would have to be a careful running program to get his loads up and he'd still likely be underdone at the end of it.

If we see Marshall much before Easter I'll be a little surprised, as stress issues in the feet for a 200cm player who is vital to your teams fortunes aren't something I'd suspect any club medical team would want to take a chance on.

Once again take this with a grain of salt as I'm no surgeon.
 
Joined
7 Jul 2012
Messages
11,737
Likes
34,734
AFL Club
West Coast
Reckon they'd use Oscar Allen before Vardy at this stage of his career.
Simpson has been pretty vocal this pre-season about Allen being played purely as a forward. Whilst fine backing up Nic Nat in the shorter reduced mins game of last year... Allen is not the best option to carry the extra ruck work with games back at normal lengths.

I echo Shannon's thought in that Williams is the number two ruck now, with Vardy to play as second ruck if Williams unavailable. By trading Hickey we've thrown everything behind Williams as our future ruck, and with Nic Nat closer to the end of his career, Williams needs games to be ready for the transition.

We've also experimented with young defender Harry Edwards as a back-up ruck. He's had another growth spurt over the summer and is now 200cm and the same height as NIc Nat. He rucked as a junior and has been doing some ruck work at training. The Eagles like the look of having a McEvoy type that can play as a Defender then switch into the ruck as needed. Not having to play an extra tall forward who sits on the pine a fair bit whilst Nic Nat is rucking.
 
Joined
8 Jan 2020
Messages
6,262
Likes
26,153
AFL Club
Geelong
My biggest problem with Flynn at R2 is youre picking a bloke that hasnt played footy in 18 months and never played as a solo ruck (even in the NEAFL they always had one of Briggs/Simpson chopping him out, is he now going to be able to do it as a lone man for 3 months whilst also making a significant step up in standard? Does a guy like Finlayson/Himmelberg spend significant time in the Ruck to help him out and hurt his ceiling? Does he get a spell once a month to make sure he can get through the time period required? Lot of question marks for a guy you'd need to score well for at least 2 months straight and dont have Marshall as a bail out if it all turned to ****.
 
Last edited:
Joined
19 Feb 2017
Messages
2,308
Likes
7,755
AFL Club
Brisbane
My biggest problem with Flynn at R2 is youre picking a bloke that hasnt played footy in 18 months and never played as a solo ruck (even in the NEAFL they always had one of Briggs/Simpson chopping him out, is he now going to be able to do it as a lone man for 3 months whilst also making a significant step up in standard? Does a guy like Finlayson/Himmelberg spend significant time in the Ruck to help him out and hurt his ceiling? Does he get a spell once a month to make sure he can get through the time period required? Lot of question marks for a guy you'd need to score well for at least 2 months straight and dont have Marshall as a bail out if it all turned to ****.
GWS have always loved packing their NEAFL team with ruckmen.
 
Joined
8 Jan 2020
Messages
6,262
Likes
26,153
AFL Club
Geelong
Key words there are "in the SANFL" I suspect - never really taken much notice of "supercoach scoring" from state league players, given the lesser opposition they play against.
Yeah its really nothing analysis when I see that, surely people realise 3/4 of the SANFL/VFL/WAFL Ruckman are either kids that are underdeveloped draftees or journeyman that have never made it at AFL Level, numbers always very inflated for anyone half decent.
 
Top