Position SC 2021: Defender Discussion

[Chumpion]

This is actually my main concern. And it’s not just round 1 - would be nice to have some confidence heading into round 2 that we actually have a starting 22, without having to trade to get it.

Yep agreed! JS is at an even higher premium this year.. especially as the thought of trading a non playing rookie to another rookie only for them to not play makes me vomit.

Also another reason to start as many top 2-3 players for each position as having them means a compromised D6/M8/F6 is less painful, but trying to get the top 2-3 in might be a pipe dream if the rookie situation stalls across the season..

 

[Herbie66]

Wonder if those looking at Cumming and/or H Young realise their is a similarly priced player (actually cheaper) that has basically gone 90+ in 6 previous seasons.

But he gets overlooked because he is a ruck.

What scores would :-

Gawn/Grundy + Cummins/Young

V

Martin + Premium Defender

+ spare $$$

 

[gutsroy]

Quick one: Had a look at some DEFs based not just on points, but in terms of prices.

See below. Rough way to think of it: The length of the bar above / below the median (the white line) gives you an idea of the price spread.

So if a bloke has lots of bars with only a small section below the median and a large section above, it means he doesn't tend to dip much in price but more often rises off the back of (a chain of) bigger scores.

Can obviously interpret as you like and there's subjectivity in it, but Lloyd's progression and consistency are honestly super-impressive.

You'd have to be pretty game to fade him.

 

[Shannon]

Wonder if those looking at Cumming and/or H Young realise their is a similarly priced player (actually cheaper) that has basically gone 90+ in 6 previous seasons.

But he gets overlooked because he is a ruck.

What scores would :-

Gawn/Grundy + Cummins/Young

V

Martin + Premium Defender

+ spare $$$

Stef Martin is 34 currently, 35 later this year - expect he will get regular rests throughout the season myself. Also with Bevo as his coach, who knows what he will actually do with his ruck setup during the season

I recall that game last season when Dunkley seemed like he was playing as the main ruck whilst English spent most of the game playing as a forward lol.

 

[Herbie66]

Stef Martin is 34 currently, 35 later this year - expect he will get regular rests throughout the season myself. Also with Bevo as his coach, who knows what he will actually do with his ruck setup during the season

I recall that game last season when Dunkley seemed like he was playing as the main ruck whilst English spent most of the game playing as a forward lol.

Danger is not much younger and Geelong have already said they are resting their players , but everyone loves him.

Why does Dunkley get signalled out for playing the ruck role , when Bont & Macrae have done it previously ?

Danger & Selwood for Geelong.

Wills for Collingwood.

But no it is always Bevo getting picked on.

Only need to "pretend" to contest and then you have a extra mid at the coalface.

Smart tactic actually

English should be played as a winger similar to what Richo man and Nick Riewoldt used to play.

Think Bevo is actually a genius if he keeps English out of the ruck as much as possible this season personally.

Wasn't Grigg a premiership ruckman ? 🤔

 

[Shannon]

Danger is not much younger and Geelong have already said they are resting their players , but everyone loves him.

Why does Dunkley get signalled out for playing the ruck role , when Bont & Macrae have done it previously ?

Danger & Selwood for Geelong.

Wills for Collingwood.

But no it is always Bevo getting picked on.

Only need to "pretend" to contest and then you have a extra mid at the coalface.

Smart tactic actually

English should be played as a winger similar to what Richo man and Nick Riewoldt used to play.

Think Bevo is actually a genius if he keeps English out of the ruck as much as possible this season personally.

Wasn't Grigg a premiership ruckman ? 🤔

Danger is 30... bit different to 34

On Dunkley :-
Josh Dunkley could be on his way to Essendon in 2021 — and the potential move is reportedly due to a key disagreement over his best position on the field.

It was reported this week that Dunkley had told the Dogs he was keen to move across to Essendon, despite being contracted for two more years.

The Bulldogs have insisted the 23-year old is going nowhere, but Jon Ralph explained Dunkley’s irritation with being used as an undersized ruckman could be behind the reports.

“During the single final, he played only 30 per cent of game time in the midfield. I think he just feels he doesn’t want to be playing at half-forward, he doesn’t want to be playing in the ruck,” he said on Fox Sports News’ AFL Tonight.

“He got hit-outs in seven of the 12 games, he’s been pushed to a wing at times. In that amazing year last year when he had 650 possessions he was played mostly in the midfield.”

The reasoning is supported by the numbers, with Champion Data’s ‘Fantasy Freako’ revealing Dunkley’s centre bounce attendance had dropped from 63 per cent to 36 per cent in the last 12 months, with coach Luke Beveridge often using the big-bodied onballer in the ruck.




Grigg coming to the end of his career, he was happy to play any position if it meant getting a game. He was an honest footy player but no star coming to the end. Dunkley is in his prime age, who has shown how bloody good he is when played as a midfielder yet his coach wanted him to play as 2nd ruck - can't compare the 2 players.

Danger/Selwood/ Wills only very occasionally.

Bont/Macrae had turns as well but nowhere near as much as Dunkley.

The point is you have a young star who shown he has all the tools to be an absolute gun midfielder that has just turned 24 years old - to run the risk of him being injured playing in the most combative position on the ground ( yes players can get injured in any parts of the ground but the constant bang & crash of ruckwork takes some getting used to) that he hasn't done much training in just seems very strange to me.

Why not deploy someone like Josh Bruce as the 2nd ruck last season (197cms/ 93kgs) who is a solid player but no potential young star?

 

[Herbie66]

Danger is 30... bit different to 34

On Dunkley :-
Josh Dunkley could be on his way to Essendon in 2021 — and the potential move is reportedly due to a key disagreement over his best position on the field.

It was reported this week that Dunkley had told the Dogs he was keen to move across to Essendon, despite being contracted for two more years.

The Bulldogs have insisted the 23-year old is going nowhere, but Jon Ralph explained Dunkley’s irritation with being used as an undersized ruckman could be behind the reports.

“During the single final, he played only 30 per cent of game time in the midfield. I think he just feels he doesn’t want to be playing at half-forward, he doesn’t want to be playing in the ruck,” he said on Fox Sports News’ AFL Tonight.

“He got hit-outs in seven of the 12 games, he’s been pushed to a wing at times. In that amazing year last year when he had 650 possessions he was played mostly in the midfield.”

The reasoning is supported by the numbers, with Champion Data’s ‘Fantasy Freako’ revealing Dunkley’s centre bounce attendance had dropped from 63 per cent to 36 per cent in the last 12 months, with coach Luke Beveridge often using the big-bodied onballer in the ruck.

View attachment 26627


Grigg coming to the end of his career, he was happy to play any position if it meant getting a game. He was an honest footy player but no star coming to the end. Dunkley is in his prime age, who has shown how bloody good he is when played as a midfielder yet his coach wanted him to play as 2nd ruck - can't compare the 2 players.

Danger/Selwood/ Wills only very occasionally.

Bont/Macrae had turns as well but nowhere near as much as Dunkley.

The point is you have a young star who shown he has all the tools to be an absolute gun midfielder that has just turned 24 years old - to run the risk of him being injured playing in the most combative position on the ground ( yes players can get injured in any parts of the ground but the constant bang & crash of ruckwork takes some getting used to) that he hasn't done much training in just seems very strange to me.

Why not deploy someone like Josh Bruce as the 2nd ruck last season (197cms/ 93kgs) who is a solid player but no potential young star?

Maybe just maybe Libba & Smith are better clearance players than Dunkley.

And he is actually a better option forward than the pair of them.

Adaptability and versalitity is the modern game.

So he goes to Essendon where they have Shiel , McGrath , Merrett , Parish , Caldwell , Langford etc etc.

If he keeps whingeing Bevo might play him in the mids , in the VFL and actually give Lipinski some more mid time.

I think the reason they don't deploy Bruce is because the actual ruck contest is not the priority , it is what happens at ground level when they create confusion with the extra mid by having Dunkley their.

Probably need to watch their tapes back and forth to work out their setups and who acts as the decoy/mover to then create space for the main target.

WCE do it brilliantly on boundary throw ins but actually use a ruckman and essentially 2 of their mids are decoys to open up the hitting zone.

Grundy has his one at CB as well over his opposite shoulder , HTA , handball , then clearance.

Still think Gawn actually has the best ruck "clock" though and is equally efficient right hand & left hand.

 

[pizza safety]

Quick one: Had a look at some DEFs based not just on points, but in terms of prices.

See below. Rough way to think of it: The length of the bar above / below the median (the white line) gives you an idea of the price spread.

So if a bloke has lots of bars with only a small section below the median and a large section above, it means he doesn't tend to dip much in price but more often rises off the back of (a chain of) bigger scores.

Can obviously interpret as you like and there's subjectivity in it, but Lloyd's progression and consistency are honestly super-impressive.

You'd have to be pretty game to fade him.

View attachment 26620

I personally feel it’s riskier to start Lloyd, I’ve never once thought about having him in my side.

The amount of behinds Sydney concedes and the amount of kick outs he has got is unsustainably high. I see regression occurring at some stage in the future.

He’s had a peak year 10 pts above his previous best at age 27 and I think some downturn is likely.

Defenders never score at Lloyd’s level and not consistently.

I don’t think he was scaled up with the shorter quarters in the same way I think Neale, Gawn and Steele were, Neale and Gawn had increased time on ground which will regress and Steele’s impact meant more in a shallow midfield (best players on ground were over rewarded)

Will he still be the no.1 defender ? I would say so but I doubt he averages 120 again

 

[Under The Dome]

I personally feel it’s riskier to start Lloyd, I’ve never once thought about having him in my side.

The amount of behinds Sydney concedes and the amount of kick outs he has got is unsustainably high. I see regression occurring at some stage in the future.

He’s had a peak year 10 pts above his previous best at age 27 and I think some downturn is likely.

If only Whitfield didn't have the injury I would be starting him instead.

 

[Tex]

If only Whitfield didn't have the injury I would be starting him instead.

I didn't start Lloyd last year and it was my biggest regret. Not this year

 

[gutsroy]

I personally feel it’s riskier to start Lloyd, I’ve never once thought about having him in my side.

The amount of behinds Sydney concedes and the amount of kick outs he has got is unsustainably high. I see regression occurring at some stage in the future.

He’s had a peak year 10 pts above his previous best at age 27 and I think some downturn is likely.

Defenders never score at Lloyd’s level and not consistently.

I don’t think he was scaled up with the shorter quarters in the same way I think Neale, Gawn and Steele are, Neale and Gawn had increased time on ground which will regress and Steele’s impact meant more in a shallow midfield (best players on ground were over rewarded)

Will he still be the no.1 defender ? I would say so but I doubt he averages 120 again

Yeah, it's possible, and for what it's worth I'm resisting picking him, it's just that:

(1) the available data don't suggest huge regression;
(2) With no Whitfield early on, he seems the most likely #1, potentially by a margin

So possibly lower risk to start him, avoid non-ownership downside and make a play elsewhere, ultimately.

But understand your perspective, absolutely.

 

[wogitalia]

I didn't start Lloyd last year and it was my biggest regret. Not this year

At least I had not starting Neale as a bigger regret Wait, that's not a good thing!!!

I do agree with Lloyd being overpriced and the kick-ins are likely to decline and it looks very likely that Dawson will be taking some off him as well but he's such a pure little seagull.

Still, even if he drops 60k he's going to be an awfully difficult trade target and unless he drops a lot he's almost certainly going to be in a tier on his own or with very little company, basically meaning if you don't start him you need to plan how to get him and it's a lot easier to do that now without moving parts.

 

[PC]

Danger is not much younger and Geelong have already said they are resting their players , but everyone loves him.

Why does Dunkley get signalled out for playing the ruck role , when Bont & Macrae have done it previously ?

Danger & Selwood for Geelong.

Wills for Collingwood.

But no it is always Bevo getting picked on.

Only need to "pretend" to contest and then you have a extra mid at the coalface.

Smart tactic actually

English should be played as a winger similar to what Richo man and Nick Riewoldt used to play.

Think Bevo is actually a genius if he keeps English out of the ruck as much as possible this season personally.

Wasn't Grigg a premiership ruckman ? 🤔

I remember when the Hawks had to play Hodge in a couple ruck contests. I still shudder at the memory. Some players should be played where they perform, flexibility can get stuffed.

 

[pizza safety]

Yeah, it's possible, and for what it's worth I'm resisting picking him, it's just that:

(1) the available data don't suggest huge regression;
(2) With no Whitfield early on, he seems the most likely #1, potentially by a margin

So possibly lower risk to start him, avoid non-ownership downside and make a play elsewhere, ultimately.

But understand your perspective, absolutely.

I know that using last years scores he looks incredibly consistent, but if you look at some historical scores of players, a peak year of 10+ pts improvement at age 26 or older is usually followed by some regression. There are some examples here in this old article from @Rowsus (although that article is on a different subject) https://supercoachscores.com/threads/fallen-premiums-a-statistical-viewpoint.2077/

Some recent examples of this thing also include Dusty in 2017.

Basically the jump to another level happens too late in their career for it to be sustainable, they have already achieved a baseline of scoring from that point, which is difficult to overcome.


Again Lloyd will be super consistent and good, but I think he is quite likely to underperform vs his average/price.

 

[Bomber18]

I personally feel it’s riskier to start Lloyd, I’ve never once thought about having him in my side.

The amount of behinds Sydney concedes and the amount of kick outs he has got is unsustainably high. I see regression occurring at some stage in the future.

He’s had a peak year 10 pts above his previous best at age 27 and I think some downturn is likely.

Defenders never score at Lloyd’s level and not consistently.

I don’t think he was scaled up with the shorter quarters in the same way I think Neale, Gawn and Steele were, Neale and Gawn had increased time on ground which will regress and Steele’s impact meant more in a shallow midfield (best players on ground were over rewarded)

Will he still be the no.1 defender ? I would say so but I doubt he averages 120 again

He will regress in average for sure. But does it matter? I am anticipating a 115 avg and I still think that is worth the 650k. It could be 110 and I think I would still not be that disappointed starting him if he went at that.

All the other mids around the 650k, I'd also be expecting a 115 avg (i.e. Oliver).

I keep tweaking with Lloyd down to the Daniel/Stewart types at 540k ish but I have Daniel/Stewart at more the 100 avg range. Feels like 110k for a +15ppg boost is not a bad investment given the alternatives are also similarly priced to what they'll average.

 

[pizza safety]

He will regress in average for sure. But does it matter? I am anticipating a 115 avg and I still think that is worth the 650k. It could be 110 and I think I would still not be that disappointed starting him if he went at that.

All the other mids around the 650k, I'd also be expecting a 115 avg (i.e. Oliver).

I keep tweaking with Lloyd down to the Daniel/Stewart types at 540k ish but I have Daniel/Stewart at more the 100 avg range. Feels like 110k for a +15ppg boost is not a bad investment given the alternatives are also similarly priced to what they'll average.

Maybe it doesn't matter, I agree there's an argument for buying a sure thing and not everything can be value with Supercoach, but I see less value with him than with someone like Oliver, despite the assurance he'll likely be D1. I would trust the younger player to maintain an average or their improvement and especially the midfielder. I'm also really of the belief that the number of kick outs he's had is unsustainable, there's a new rule to help him from regressing with that but I don't think it would be enough.

He's also been patchy within the last few seasons, starting him won't necessarily be the best option if that happens again and he hits form at a different time in the year.

I guess like you said you'd be happy with 115, so we're not far off in our assumption, maybe it's just feel and innate preference. I feel like Oliver is more likely to get to 120 and I have a harder time picking other mids this year than I do picking the Laird/Stewart/Daniel types to replace Lloyd.

 

[Under The Dome]

Maybe it doesn't matter, I agree there's an argument for buying a sure thing and not everything can be value with Supercoach, but I see less value with him than with someone like Oliver, despite the assurance he'll likely be D1. I would trust the younger player to maintain an average or their improvement and especially the midfielder. I'm also really of the belief that the number of kick outs he's had is unsustainable, there's a new rule to help him from regressing with that but I don't think it would be enough.

He's also been patchy within the last few seasons, starting him won't necessarily be the best option if that happens again and he hits form at a different time in the year.

I guess like you said you'd be happy with 115, so we're not far off in our assumption, maybe it's just feel and innate preference. I feel like Oliver is more likely to get to 120 and I have a harder time picking other mids this year than I do picking the Laird/Stewart/Daniel types to replace Lloyd.

Always have to back ur gut. I see only 3 Defenders going above 105 with Laird,Lloyd and Whitfield the 3.

 

[pizza safety]

If only Whitfield didn't have the injury I would be starting him instead.

I can't doubt how safe he is as a selection, you are very unlikely to go wrong, I just don't see the value or the repetition of that score. I see why others would pick him when I think about it. You are right, in your other comment, my gut is really telling me this is not a good pick to start the year.

 

[Backbone]

Always have to back ur gut. I see only 3 Defenders going above 105 with Laird,Lloyd and Whitfield the 3.

I think Docherty will go close again personally along with Stewart
Won’t be surprised if mills and l Mac get there too
The backs are awesome this year
That’s without naming Ridley Ryan short Daniel who will probably be 100+ too

I see why you names those 3 though they’re all locks to be 105+ having the history of doing it. Just wish Whitfield wasn’t injured he’d make not starting Lloyd feel so much better!

 

[Backbone]

With the lack of rookies down back
Is anyone else think of rolling a Fyfe as the loop then sit him at m11 when the jones/Gould’s of the world actually pop up during the year?

As good as I think Treacy looks the amount of decent forward rookies and Flynn make me think he’s not the right guy to start for the loop as he may get 2/3 games early. Fyfe has no chance and yeah just my thinking