Position SC 2021: Defender Discussion

[Bomber18]

Grain of salt for mine, if you take out the enormous outlier of 179 against Richmond where the ball was literally in the Swans D50 for whole damn game that stat flips the other way.

Throw in that he only played parts of games in the midfield and was tagging in at least one (think it was 2 but blanking) of them and it kind of makes sense. He was generally thrown on ball in games he was struggling to impact prior to it which is another factor to consider given those games would likely have been worse without it and brought down the defensive average.

Would also add that by my calc 101.67 is higher than 101.4 so not even sure the stat is accurate to be honest.




I think 110 minimum is pretty generous, 3 season average prior to last year was 103, 2019 was 109, he definitely could drop a fair bit lower than 110. Personally think 105 is probably the low end of any projection though so not talking extreme variances.

I actually think he's probably about 110 myself given all the factors at play for last season and my general feeling for the Swans (more competitive). I'd say that 110 is probably the mark where everyone is fine with picking/not picking. 115 and I think not picking is hurting, anything under 110 and it's a pretty significant blow.

Laird, Mills and Whitfield are the only 3 that I would say have average chances of touching that 110 level this year, there's a few other guys with longshots (most of the guys starting 95+ to be honest) so 110 is still a very good shot of being the top back.

Lloyd is such a sloot though that I wouldn't be at all surprised if he matched or improved on last year. While I'd back sub 115 if you put my life on it I wouldn't be confident of living!

Not sure why you'd take into account Lloyd's pre-breakout average.

Post breakout (i.e. from 2018), Lloyd has gone 112 @ 22 games, 109 @ 22 games, 122 @ 17 games. Only missed 1 game in the last 5 seasons. If only looking at his premium years outside of last season, he averaged 110.5 from 44 games. 113.7 from 61 games including the 2020 season.
110 @ 22 games would be a win for me. I think he can do a 115 avg personally and would be surprised if he only went at a 105 avg, but even a 105 @ 22 games is comfortably a top 4 defender anyway too.

Edit: The alternatives like Mills, Daniel, Stewart are around 110k cheaper and I have them pegged for ~ 100 avg. Say Lloyd's range is 105-115, paying the 110k for an extra 5-15ppg seems like a good deal to me.

 

[PC]

Mills is priced at an avg of 100ish using a magic number of 5400, why would under 110 be a 'pretty significant blow'?

 

[Under The Dome]

Not sure why you'd take into account Lloyd's pre-breakout average.

Post breakout (i.e. from 2018), Lloyd has gone 112 @ 22 games, 109 @ 22 games, 122 @ 17 games. Only missed 1 game in the last 5 seasons. If only looking at his premium years outside of last season, he averaged 110.5 from 44 games. 113.7 from 61 games including the 2020 season.
110 @ 22 games would be a win for me. I think he can do a 115 avg personally and would be surprised if he only went at a 105 avg, but even a 105 @ 22 games is comfortably a top 4 defender anyway too.

Edit: The alternatives like Mills, Daniel, Stewart are around 110k cheaper and I have them pegged for ~ 100 avg. Say Lloyd's range is 105-115, paying the 110k for an extra 5-15ppg seems like a good deal to me.

The big key to it is the 22 games. Everyone apart from Lloyd ends up missing games with Laird being the closest to the same durability.

 

[Bomber18]

The big key to it is the 22 games. Everyone apart from Lloyd ends up missing games with Laird being the closest to the same durability.

Yep this is the underrated part about Lloyd. Missed 1 game in 5 years. I was surprised to see that!

 

[Beg2Differ]

The other thing to consider if bypassing Sir Jake is that

IF

if he starts scoring 9 points per possession

OR

he jumps from 6 to 70 points in 5 minutes while sitting on the bench

OR

he racks up meaningless possessions (in your opinion) with the ball stuck in the Swans backline

AND

you post lamenting any of these issues;


I will respond to your post celebrating this fact and laughing at your unwillingness to pay the price.

YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED!!

 

[wogitalia]

Yep this is the underrated part about Lloyd. Missed 1 game in 5 years. I was surprised to see that!

When you avoid the contest at all costs it's not that surprising, pretty unlucky to get hurt at what are basically training drills

The other thing to consider if bypassing Sir Jake is that

IF

if he starts scoring 9 points per possession

OR

he jumps from 6 to 70 points in 5 minutes while sitting on the bench

OR

he racks up meaningless possessions (in your opinion) with the ball stuck in the Swans backline

AND

you post lamenting any of these issues;


I will respond to your post celebrating this fact and laughing at your unwillingness to pay the price.

YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED!!

What if I have him in my team and still complain about this because I also have to have him in my real life team?

 

[TopBillings]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1367015610434035712

 

[randomcliche]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1367015610434035712

Stop it. I've already managed to expunge J.Harmes, H.Young and I.Cumming from my team... (thank god for the MPM comp) Webster ticks all the boxes I like. Will wait for outcome of second praccy match, before restrcturing to include him. (I bought in 2018 as well). I think some of the saints members here have questioned his JS.

 

[Shannon]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1367015610434035712

Wow!

What happened the following 2 years?
Form related, injury related or role change?

 

[TopBillings]

Wow!

What happened the following 2 years?
Form related,, injury related or role change?

Injuries - highly rated internally

 

[wogitalia]

Injuries - highly rated internally

Would struggle to find a body part that he hasn't missed games from...

Which is the biggest problem. He needs to string together 8 or so games which has proven very difficult for him. Also a lot of new distributors since that season. Wilkie, Coffield, Sinclair, Clark and Long all down there to share the ball around.

 

[Ironhawk]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1367015610434035712

Full game list that year:

81, 106, 95, 0, 0, 112, 105, 132, 107, 128, 62, 110, 13, BYE, 0, 78, 79, 0, 0, 70, 54, 83, 64

Three times that year he missed two game stretches, including during his good run (conveniently left out of that tweet) which is concerning enough, without looking at his overall history. Games per season: 11, 11, 17, 11, 18, 17, 8, 0.

Pass.

 

[GrainFedBeef]

Grain of salt for mine, if you take out the enormous outlier of 179 against Richmond where the ball was literally in the Swans D50 for whole damn game that stat flips the other way.

Throw in that he only played parts of games in the midfield and was tagging in at least one (think it was 2 but blanking) of them and it kind of makes sense. He was generally thrown on ball in games he was struggling to impact prior to it which is another factor to consider given those games would likely have been worse without it and brought down the defensive average.

Would also add that by my calc 101.67 is higher than 101.4 so not even sure the stat is accurate to be honest.




I think 110 minimum is pretty generous, 3 season average prior to last year was 103, 2019 was 109, he definitely could drop a fair bit lower than 110. Personally think 105 is probably the low end of any projection though so not talking extreme variances.

I actually think he's probably about 110 myself given all the factors at play for last season and my general feeling for the Swans (more competitive). I'd say that 110 is probably the mark where everyone is fine with picking/not picking. 115 and I think not picking is hurting, anything under 110 and it's a pretty significant blow.

Laird, Mills and Whitfield are the only 3 that I would say have average chances of touching that 110 level this year, there's a few other guys with longshots (most of the guys starting 95+ to be honest) so 110 is still a very good shot of being the top back.

Lloyd is such a sloot though that I wouldn't be at all surprised if he matched or improved on last year. While I'd back sub 115 if you put my life on it I wouldn't be confident of living!

Must say the scores where he attended more CBA's also had me worried about his sc scoring per minute and will be watching to see how he goes this week.

As you noted, one game he tagged Bont to 110. The poor 85 game was versus St Kilda, one of the harder teams to score against. Duggan also played mids against Saints and had a poor game, plus a few good premiums had poor scores although they were probably tagged.

Full time mids, training with mids should all help his scoring, Mills is not a big unit like Cripps/Bont//Fyfe so expect he may average well yet have a good dispersion in scores. In my side for Duggan for now as 5th defender, first to go if rookies turn up given his price and lack of history like Laird Stewart and others.

 

[PC]

The other thing to consider if bypassing Sir Jake is that

IF

if he starts scoring 9 points per possession

OR

he jumps from 6 to 70 points in 5 minutes while sitting on the bench

OR

he racks up meaningless possessions (in your opinion) with the ball stuck in the Swans backline

AND

you post lamenting any of these issues;


I will respond to your post celebrating this fact and laughing at your unwillingness to pay the price.

YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED!!

When you avoid the contest at all costs it's not that surprising, pretty unlucky to get hurt at what are basically training drills

What if I have him in my team and still complain about this because I also have to have him in my real life team?

Don't worry wogitalia, B2D does this every season for Sir Seagull naysayers, it's kinda his thing

 

[Grundogging]

You do hear it every season about lack of rookies, usually early wrong calls and they do turn up.

Difference this year? We are only 2 weeks out from the season starting!

... and we'll still largely have no idea which rookies are going to play in round 1 come Thursday evening, which is where the stress in all of this is coming from.

 

[pizza safety]

What’s your predicted average of Lloyd and your replacement types like Daniel/Stewart?

Fwiw I have Lloyd at likely 115 with 110 as a minimum.

Daniel/Stewart at both 100.

My argument that he’s patchy within the last few years also goes both ways, I could miss out on a hot start by not starting him.

I reckon his floor is around 105-108, his ceilings at around 122 (only because I can’t see a defender scoring more) and he’ll average a hair under 115.

Similarly, I reckon Stewart/Daniel will average around 100, Stewart slightly more than Daniel because he doesn’t get tagged as much and I prefer him because of the better bye. I would think Daniel has a bigger ceiling though.

It’s more the fact I feel more assured picking one of those two that they will be top 6 defenders, I can’t do the same when replacing Oliver in the midfield, after Cripps and Walsh (who I already have ) there’s nobody else at that price I feel can make the top 8-10 mids

 

[freowho]

I think Lloyd is like Docherty. As long as he stays at that high scoring level in that role Sydney remain a bad team. How long do Sydney keep playing the same way and stay at the bottom. I don't have them making the 8 but are they going to be as bad as last year and are they going to keep doing the same old same old?

 

[gutsroy]

Yeo / Duggan:
Anyone know the most current status on a likely Yeo return date off the groin?
Heard he could be as far off as a rd10 return, but it sounded like Simpson might have hinted at an earlier return.

 

[Shannon]

Yeo / Duggan:
Anyone know the most current status on a likely Yeo return date off the groin?
Heard he could be as far off as a rd10 return, but it sounded like Simpson might have hinted at an earlier return.

Here is exactly what Simmo said :-

Simpson had been hopeful the dual John Worsfold medallist would be able to ramp up his training and put his hand up for round one, but conceded that was now unrealistic 19 days out from the season opener against Gold Coast on March 21.

"He won't be round one, but he'll hopefully be in the early part of the year," Simpson told AFL.com.au.

"If he's not training with the main group now it's (playing round one) probably not going to happen.

"With the pre-season, you used to start in November so you'd have this chronic load where you could miss a few weeks and then just get back into it.

"You miss a few weeks now and you've got to rebuild your fitness because you're not quite there yet."

 

[gutsroy]

Here is exactly what Simmo said :-

Simpson had been hopeful the dual John Worsfold medallist would be able to ramp up his training and put his hand up for round one, but conceded that was now unrealistic 19 days out from the season opener against Gold Coast on March 21.

"He won't be round one, but he'll hopefully be in the early part of the year," Simpson told AFL.com.au.

"If he's not training with the main group now it's (playing round one) probably not going to happen.

"With the pre-season, you used to start in November so you'd have this chronic load where you could miss a few weeks and then just get back into it.

"You miss a few weeks now and you've got to rebuild your fitness because you're not quite there yet."

Hmm, not really sure what to make of that, but that was definitely what what I’d heard must have been based on 🤷‍♂️