Position 2021: Ruck Discussion
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ok the reality of the Gawndy vs Meek, Flynn, Hunter debate has just hit me, i have no clue whether to go in or not.
Can anyone help me decide this big debate? or is there a compromise e.g. Gawn, Flynn/Meek, Hunter?
Welcome any input, Ultimately i will flip a coin just wondering if its worth the flip???
Can anyone help me decide this big debate? or is there a compromise e.g. Gawn, Flynn/Meek, Hunter?
Welcome any input, Ultimately i will flip a coin just wondering if its worth the flip???
I don't think Flynn, Meek (hunter) can really be ok anyone's radar unless you like a gamble and don't really care if your season is over in a month.
So I think the viable options are grawndy (Flynn), gawn, Flynn (meek/hunter) or Grundy, Flynn (meek/hunter).
My advice would be to make your best grawndy team. Then take gawn out and make the best additions you can with the money. Do the same with Grundy. Then you have your X v Y v Z.
Add up your projections for each combination. If the grawndy team wins it's a no-brainer. If one of the other teams wins it's a matter of whether you think it wins by enough to cover the captaincy disadvantage (if you deem there to be one) and whether it's by enough to be worth the risk of it going bad.
EDIT: if you think cash gen is a major factor (ie you think meek makes 200k and the rookie he replaces in the XvY is a donut or a likely dud, include that in your factoring.
So I think the viable options are grawndy (Flynn), gawn, Flynn (meek/hunter) or Grundy, Flynn (meek/hunter).
My advice would be to make your best grawndy team. Then take gawn out and make the best additions you can with the money. Do the same with Grundy. Then you have your X v Y v Z.
Add up your projections for each combination. If the grawndy team wins it's a no-brainer. If one of the other teams wins it's a matter of whether you think it wins by enough to cover the captaincy disadvantage (if you deem there to be one) and whether it's by enough to be worth the risk of it going bad.
EDIT: if you think cash gen is a major factor (ie you think meek makes 200k and the rookie he replaces in the XvY is a donut or a likely dud, include that in your factoring.
For me to go down the rookie ruck path I’d need almost 100% certainty that they’ll both be playing the first 6 or so rounds, injury withstanding. There’s no certainty even one of them play he first 6 so to me the decision is very easy.
If Gawn/Grundy go gangbusters over the first third of the season - which is entirely possible if not likely, you’ve missed the points, you’ve missed the captains points AND you have to make a non negotiable 650k+ upgrade, 2 if you’re starting both rookies.
If Gawn/Grundy go gangbusters over the first third of the season - which is entirely possible if not likely, you’ve missed the points, you’ve missed the captains points AND you have to make a non negotiable 650k+ upgrade, 2 if you’re starting both rookies.
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Personally I think it is going to depend on how you structure the rest of your side.
If you go 5 premium deep in defence (and then are you confident in picking the right 5 from about 12 options ?)
Lloyd interupted preseason , Whitfield out so do you save 2 spots for them ?
You are not getting 5 x $ 600 k + mids in your starting team so probably need 2 of Cripps , Rowell & Taranto price types to start all who may or not need to be upgraded.
Campbell at M6 , Bruhn (?) at M7 , Powell at M8......yes cheaper alternatives may be named.
Danger + Fantasia/Ziebell/Daniher/Impey + many rookie priced players have been mentioned eg Cahill , Warner , Fullarton , Bergman , Jones , Rowe , Scott etc etc
Compelling arguments to start Gawn due to his draw and historical averages as a C option.
Does history repeat ? Do the new game rules affect ruck scores significantly ?
Does Jackson demand more ruck time ?
Does Treloar hurt Grundy's HTA and clearances ?
The Cameron effect on Grundy ?
If Flynn is fit (practice match today or tomorrow) he is arguably GWS 1st ruck.
Does he outscore a similar priced rookie D, M or F onfield significantly enough ?
Then can you replace Gawn/Grundy with a alternative scoring option eg Neale , Steele , Oliver , Macrae for example.
Hunter will play Round 1 , if we know Marshall & Ryder will miss 6-8 rounds he then becomes a no brainer to start (in my opinion).
Meek could share ruck duties with Darcy (if fit) if they play Darcy forward as Lobb replacement or Cox or Logue going forward are also options.
Fyfe was probably playing more forward before Lobb was injured in any case.
Gawn + Grundy could expose you at D4-6
Gawn/Grundy + rookie R2 could strengthen those positions.
All about your overall structures.
Been pages and pages of comments/ideas/thoughts on the rookie rucks.
So just a matter of seeing which option actually makes your overall team structure better.
If you go 5 premium deep in defence (and then are you confident in picking the right 5 from about 12 options ?)
Lloyd interupted preseason , Whitfield out so do you save 2 spots for them ?
You are not getting 5 x $ 600 k + mids in your starting team so probably need 2 of Cripps , Rowell & Taranto price types to start all who may or not need to be upgraded.
Campbell at M6 , Bruhn (?) at M7 , Powell at M8......yes cheaper alternatives may be named.
Danger + Fantasia/Ziebell/Daniher/Impey + many rookie priced players have been mentioned eg Cahill , Warner , Fullarton , Bergman , Jones , Rowe , Scott etc etc
Compelling arguments to start Gawn due to his draw and historical averages as a C option.
Does history repeat ? Do the new game rules affect ruck scores significantly ?
Does Jackson demand more ruck time ?
Does Treloar hurt Grundy's HTA and clearances ?
The Cameron effect on Grundy ?
If Flynn is fit (practice match today or tomorrow) he is arguably GWS 1st ruck.
Does he outscore a similar priced rookie D, M or F onfield significantly enough ?
Then can you replace Gawn/Grundy with a alternative scoring option eg Neale , Steele , Oliver , Macrae for example.
Hunter will play Round 1 , if we know Marshall & Ryder will miss 6-8 rounds he then becomes a no brainer to start (in my opinion).
Meek could share ruck duties with Darcy (if fit) if they play Darcy forward as Lobb replacement or Cox or Logue going forward are also options.
Fyfe was probably playing more forward before Lobb was injured in any case.
Gawn + Grundy could expose you at D4-6
Gawn/Grundy + rookie R2 could strengthen those positions.
All about your overall structures.
Been pages and pages of comments/ideas/thoughts on the rookie rucks.
So just a matter of seeing which option actually makes your overall team structure better.
I think you need at least one of Gawn or Grundy, there is too much unknowns for the long term job security specifically of Meek and Hunter. Flynn I think is more of a safer pick although we haven't seen him play yet.
Gawn or Grundy is the big question. Gawn will again most likely end up the number one ruckman but his price is extreme. Grundy in contrast has a bit of value to him, had a down season last season and will probably bounce back, prior to his 120 ppg season last year (a "down" season for him), he posted two 130ppg seasons. Gawn on the other hand has a really nice run of games to start the season and could go large early on. I think for me I am in the Grundy camp, his price unlike many other top end premiums across most of the lines is not over-inflated and will finish at the very least in the top 2 rucks. I just wish Darcy Cameron would go away.
Gawn or Grundy is the big question. Gawn will again most likely end up the number one ruckman but his price is extreme. Grundy in contrast has a bit of value to him, had a down season last season and will probably bounce back, prior to his 120 ppg season last year (a "down" season for him), he posted two 130ppg seasons. Gawn on the other hand has a really nice run of games to start the season and could go large early on. I think for me I am in the Grundy camp, his price unlike many other top end premiums across most of the lines is not over-inflated and will finish at the very least in the top 2 rucks. I just wish Darcy Cameron would go away.
If you could get 6-8 guaranteed rounds out of all of Flynn , Hunter & Meek I think it would be easier to start them all.
The other option would be if Marshall was due back Round 3 then look at him as your initial upgrade and start Flynn , Meek / FR.
Again no firm details on his likely return.
If Flynn is named Round 1 it is then his place to lose.
Gawn's C potential is huge though based on stats previously provided just a matter if you are confident in any of Neale , Steele , Oliver , Macrae matching those numbers early I guess.
Going to be a interesting few days before Friday night that's for sure.
The other option would be if Marshall was due back Round 3 then look at him as your initial upgrade and start Flynn , Meek / FR.
Again no firm details on his likely return.
If Flynn is named Round 1 it is then his place to lose.
Gawn's C potential is huge though based on stats previously provided just a matter if you are confident in any of Neale , Steele , Oliver , Macrae matching those numbers early I guess.
Going to be a interesting few days before Friday night that's for sure.
It shouldn't be that stark a difference. Gawn's cash can allow at most a 1.5 x improvement on other lines. So a new premium plus either rookie-->mid-pricer or mid-pricer-->premium. At the cost of the rookie in the ruck whatever that ends up being.
You shouldn't be seeing "incredibly weak" lines anywhere depending on your definition of "incredibly weak"?
You shouldn't be seeing "incredibly weak" lines anywhere depending on your definition of "incredibly weak"?
There’s no guarantees Mumford doesn’t get a run either. They gave him undeserved games last year and I’ve seen nothing from the club to reassure me they won’t this year.
“But it gives Flynny and possibly Briggsy an opportunity to take that No.1 ruck spot, then Preussy has to fight for it when he gets back.
“I’m sure Leon will give me the call-up to play a game here and there.
Is here and there a couple times for the season or once a month? That’s the entire point, there’s no guarantees and if he were to miss - forcing a donut or even worse an early trade or 2 or 3 as we know can happen with your rucks - you lose much of the perceived benefit of starting a rookie ruck in the first place.
“But it gives Flynny and possibly Briggsy an opportunity to take that No.1 ruck spot, then Preussy has to fight for it when he gets back.
“I’m sure Leon will give me the call-up to play a game here and there.
Is here and there a couple times for the season or once a month? That’s the entire point, there’s no guarantees and if he were to miss - forcing a donut or even worse an early trade or 2 or 3 as we know can happen with your rucks - you lose much of the perceived benefit of starting a rookie ruck in the first place.
I like the Meek R2, Flynn R3 combo as you only need one to play every week and I think they will both play the first 8 weeks of the season.
Darcy for Freo if selected ,will play forward to replace Lobb according to the Freo coaches, Flynn is the only player left to play ruck at GWS besides some rookies and Mumford who is only there as an emergency back up.
I'll keep Gawn for his very easy early match ups and captaincy.
The only concern I have is Grundy going up in price.
Darcy for Freo if selected ,will play forward to replace Lobb according to the Freo coaches, Flynn is the only player left to play ruck at GWS besides some rookies and Mumford who is only there as an emergency back up.
I'll keep Gawn for his very easy early match ups and captaincy.
The only concern I have is Grundy going up in price.
