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Position SC 2021: Defender Discussion
- Thread starter THCLT
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Jayden Short averaged 90.5 last year in games with Bachar Houli (if removing the GF where Bachar was hobbling around most of the game & Vlastuin was KO'd).
Average without Bachar last year 101.2 (again that's removing the GF).
Avg becomes 108.7 if including GF.
At the moment Bachar is listed as 1-2 weeks away, so could be back within first few rounds.
Average without Bachar last year 101.2 (again that's removing the GF).
Avg becomes 108.7 if including GF.
At the moment Bachar is listed as 1-2 weeks away, so could be back within first few rounds.
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Is Fantasia a trap?
Given the lack of reliable defensive rookies putting there hand up I'm considering him D4 and Clark D5.
Not keen on starting Cox, I feel like he will do a Fischer Mcasey and we all know how that went.. Butts will be out of the team as soon as Doedee and Tahlia become available, same as $102k Murray.
Jones & Highmore really hope they're named but are a coin flip, Port have a lot of backman and Highmmore has the opportunity with Frawley out. Briggs is competing with Flynn, and Flynn seems to be the ruckman of choice for GWS.
Koschitzke probably gets named ands is a reliable bench option but not an on field choice for me.
I think Fantasia can kick 2+ a game in a very dangerous forward line and one of the best teams in the comp, Rozee will be missing early which should help his scoring.
I'm not reading too much into the game vs Adelaide because it was just a training session for the Power. I know he has injury concerns previously, but how much of that was him just not happy at the Bombers and wanting to leave.
Highest avg season was 2018 for 83.3, i'd be taking him expecting a bit higher avg closer to the 90's or am I being unrealistic?
Given the lack of reliable defensive rookies putting there hand up I'm considering him D4 and Clark D5.
Not keen on starting Cox, I feel like he will do a Fischer Mcasey and we all know how that went.. Butts will be out of the team as soon as Doedee and Tahlia become available, same as $102k Murray.
Jones & Highmore really hope they're named but are a coin flip, Port have a lot of backman and Highmmore has the opportunity with Frawley out. Briggs is competing with Flynn, and Flynn seems to be the ruckman of choice for GWS.
Koschitzke probably gets named ands is a reliable bench option but not an on field choice for me.
I think Fantasia can kick 2+ a game in a very dangerous forward line and one of the best teams in the comp, Rozee will be missing early which should help his scoring.
I'm not reading too much into the game vs Adelaide because it was just a training session for the Power. I know he has injury concerns previously, but how much of that was him just not happy at the Bombers and wanting to leave.
Highest avg season was 2018 for 83.3, i'd be taking him expecting a bit higher avg closer to the 90's or am I being unrealistic?
Is a 110+ average required? Outside of Lloyd (and excluding Howe with just 4 games) your next best two sit at 107.3 and 105 - just 10 players to average 100+ SC last year (excluding Howe).
Williams averaged 101.6 in 2019 so at a price of 85.3, 15 point average upside for a premium is pretty appealing. On that 2019 season, when GWS mids were dropping like flies, he got pushed up and was putting up some pretty strong scores, from round 12 onwards he averaged 106 SC from 15 games (finals included).
Been a lock in my sides until the suspension, makes it a touch tougher now which way I want to go. On one hand, someone injury prone like him I kind of don't mind starting as it makes me feel a little better over upgrading and possibly trading out at some point down the track again. On the flip side, starting one game later means you get that one extra buffer game to bring him in if he looks good in the first two/you want to give someone one more shot before pulling the trigger.
Williams averaged 101.6 in 2019 so at a price of 85.3, 15 point average upside for a premium is pretty appealing. On that 2019 season, when GWS mids were dropping like flies, he got pushed up and was putting up some pretty strong scores, from round 12 onwards he averaged 106 SC from 15 games (finals included).
Been a lock in my sides until the suspension, makes it a touch tougher now which way I want to go. On one hand, someone injury prone like him I kind of don't mind starting as it makes me feel a little better over upgrading and possibly trading out at some point down the track again. On the flip side, starting one game later means you get that one extra buffer game to bring him in if he looks good in the first two/you want to give someone one more shot before pulling the trigger.
Assuming him missing costs you 60 points, that's basically 3 off the average straight away, so that 110 becomes 107. Given his durability record you have to assume he misses at least another game, so knock another 3 off (20 is his career high in 6 odd seasons as a best 22 guy), and you're at 104. How often does a player hit your high end of projections, almost never, so lets call that another 3, and you end up with a 101 average which would be right in the money of getting the job done while probably allowing a couple more points before he's out of the money for say another game missed or he only averages 100 type scenarios.
If you think he's a 100 guy then you're basically picking a mid to low 90s guy which is a very fine line from failure and probably needs some help from market forces to really work.
It's worth noting that most of his best games in that period that you're mentioning were the games he played half back and not the ones he was through the guts. I actually really like him in the midfield but happy to take this as a research opportunity that I don't have to do the hard work on.
I like Williams, have had him in and out of my side all preseason but I just don't feel the risk/reward on this unless you think he's in the elite tier to really punish those without him. Reality is that if he's a 100 point scorer everyone else can get him for 50k more and keep the 50+ points they banked in round one in round 6 or 7. I just reckon for 40k you can have Docherty, with at least as good an upside story (I'd say much better) and have him play round one. Is 40k better than 50 points?
If you think he's a 100 guy then you're basically picking a mid to low 90s guy which is a very fine line from failure and probably needs some help from market forces to really work.
It's worth noting that most of his best games in that period that you're mentioning were the games he played half back and not the ones he was through the guts. I actually really like him in the midfield but happy to take this as a research opportunity that I don't have to do the hard work on.
I like Williams, have had him in and out of my side all preseason but I just don't feel the risk/reward on this unless you think he's in the elite tier to really punish those without him. Reality is that if he's a 100 point scorer everyone else can get him for 50k more and keep the 50+ points they banked in round one in round 6 or 7. I just reckon for 40k you can have Docherty, with at least as good an upside story (I'd say much better) and have him play round one. Is 40k better than 50 points?
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)Won't disagree with you that his durability record is pretty poor although you can say similar for a number of those top 10 defenders so when you're bringing his average down, you're probably needing to do something similar others/the overall defender premium average0 - maybe to a lesser scale. All in all, get the point you're trying to make, just saying that we're all likely to be upgrading to guys with questionable durability during the year and it will be done without too much thought for the most part.
Mixed results there. I had a look through the AFL graphs and he got less 'midfield' time than I remembered. Only 4-6 games where he was in the centre and that's closer to when his DT:SC ratio became poorer! The higher DT scores though help lifted hi SC a bit though. His best two games for the year did come across HBF (the 140+ scores).
By no means a lock in my side however I'm always a sucker for someone that's talked about being pushed from HBF to the midfield (looking at you Brodie Smith...) and seems pretty genuine when you consider how well off Carlton are for runners in the backline.
Guess the other part is what premiums you're interested in as well. For me I've currently got Laird/Williams/Docherty with a little bit of interest in Daniel. The rest I don't see really burning me enough to regret not picking them - outside of Lloyd but I believe he's maxed out and not really a captain option for me so I'm happy to take that risk and try to upgrade to him.
Mixed results there. I had a look through the AFL graphs and he got less 'midfield' time than I remembered. Only 4-6 games where he was in the centre and that's closer to when his DT:SC ratio became poorer! The higher DT scores though help lifted hi SC a bit though. His best two games for the year did come across HBF (the 140+ scores).
By no means a lock in my side however I'm always a sucker for someone that's talked about being pushed from HBF to the midfield (looking at you Brodie Smith...) and seems pretty genuine when you consider how well off Carlton are for runners in the backline.
Guess the other part is what premiums you're interested in as well. For me I've currently got Laird/Williams/Docherty with a little bit of interest in Daniel. The rest I don't see really burning me enough to regret not picking them - outside of Lloyd but I believe he's maxed out and not really a captain option for me so I'm happy to take that risk and try to upgrade to him.
I'd have it between him and McAsey for the second tall spot and I've seen little to get excited about from McAsey so far (to be fair he's only just turned 20 as a KP defender in a terrible team). I suppose you can throw Murray in the mix and he's not someone I'm comfortable enough to comment on.
That said, I believe one of those 3 has to play, we want Doedee as the 3rd tall/intercept/less defensive responsibilities and I don't see anyone else in our backline that's capable of filling in - at least guys we've seen so far, we're looking at other guys without AFL exposure yet in Worrell and Borlase.
That said, I believe one of those 3 has to play, we want Doedee as the 3rd tall/intercept/less defensive responsibilities and I don't see anyone else in our backline that's capable of filling in - at least guys we've seen so far, we're looking at other guys without AFL exposure yet in Worrell and Borlase.
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That’d be Zach Reid.
With Stewart going down there’s some murmurs that they might have to fast track him straight into the ones, when really they’d probably have preferred to give him a decent run in the VFL to get some development under his belt.
I’m not sure where BZT is at ? Is he injured ? I’d have thought he’d be one to come in for Stewart to allow Reid more time.
Also FWIW, Reid’s SC numbers as an underaged player in the 2019 NAB league season weren’t anything special. There’ll be better options, even with the lack of DEF rookies.
With Stewart going down there’s some murmurs that they might have to fast track him straight into the ones, when really they’d probably have preferred to give him a decent run in the VFL to get some development under his belt.
I’m not sure where BZT is at ? Is he injured ? I’d have thought he’d be one to come in for Stewart to allow Reid more time.
Also FWIW, Reid’s SC numbers as an underaged player in the 2019 NAB league season weren’t anything special. There’ll be better options, even with the lack of DEF rookies.
Finally got around to watching the Port vs Ade AAMI game and christ Fantasia looked good. Could really explode from the gates in round 1 with a North Melbourne matchup and then the Essendon revenge match in round 2. Could potentially be the Dan Butler of this season and be set for some big price rises early.
For mine a player who's always looked top class when fit and he looks as fit as I've ever seen.
For mine a player who's always looked top class when fit and he looks as fit as I've ever seen.