Position 2021: Ruck Discussion

[Locus Levy Lunacy]

It's the kind of thing that you could just about win the whole thing on the back of if you went all in and were right... the one positive is I actually don't see a huge negative downside of attempting it. Shading the rucks obviously high risk but focusing on more balanced midfielders and shading the inside guys doesn't really change the equation, a lot of them in teams anyway. Guys like Neale, Merrett, Kelly and Macrae already tick the outside boxes.

I currently have Grufleek, but I can't help thinking I'm hedging my bets.

Either the rucks won't be affected much, and you should take both the big boys OR they will be affected enough to make a significant difference. In which case it makes sense to go "all in" like you said.

I'm not prepared to run Huntfleek, (Fleekunter doesn't side right ) so I'm looking for who would be the next best number one ruck option. Given price, number one status (albeit with a lesser share than would be ideal), a great midfield and apparent improved fitness compared to last year - I keep coming back to Martin.

He is basically an expensive rookie in the same way Ziebell, Daniher, Clark etc. are. He stated in a an early interview on the Dogs website that he was there to play 22 games and that the move had coincided with his knee coming good.

The swap for me would be Grundy to Martin, then Daniher to Kelly. If the rule changes DO have the effect it appears they will, then I would back Kelly to at least match Grundy. I would also expect Martin to outscore Daniher most weeks given the respective roles.

Again relying on the rule changes to "stand up" in the real stuff, I would be pretty confident of finding C and VC options from the mids that the rules are supposed to suit.

Buster Gonad would do it, but I'm not sure I'm in that category .

 

[freowho]

I currently have Grufleek, but I can't help thinking I'm hedging my bets.

Either the rucks won't be affected much, and you should take both the big boys OR they will be affected enough to make a significant difference. In which case it makes sense to go "all in" like you said.

I'm not prepared to run Huntfleek, (Fleekunter doesn't side right ) so I'm looking for who would be the next best number one ruck option. Given price, number one status (albeit with a lesser share than would be ideal), a great midfield and apparent improved fitness compared to last year - I keep coming back to Martin.

He is basically an expensive rookie in the same way Ziebell, Daniher, Clark etc. are. He stated in a an early interview on the Dogs website that he was there to play 22 games and that the move had coincided with his knee coming good.

The swap for me would be Grundy to Martin, then Daniher to Kelly. If the rule changes DO have the effect it appears they will, then I would back Kelly to at least match Grundy. I would also expect Martin to outscore Daniher most weeks given the respective roles.

Again relying on the rule changes to "stand up" in the real stuff, I would be pretty confident of finding C and VC options from the mids that the rules are supposed to suit.

Buster Gonad would do it, but I'm not sure I'm in that category .

Good post.
Hedging bets probably puts you behind those who are all in whether they think it is business as usual or times they are a changing. But I was just thinking how many ways out there are this year. Hunter, Flynn, Meek, Fullarton, Treacy, CCJ, Hickey, Martin. You don't have to try and go from Hunter to Gawn. It's a great year to take a punt.

 

[Herbie66]

The only real question is who to take at R3, Gawn and Grundy absolutely have to be locked in, the fixture ensures it.

Grundy, already underpriced, plays the Dogs Round 1, a team he averages 166.25 against over the last four, and Gawn plays the teams the rookie rucks play for over the first 3 rounds. Even if they're good players, they could be losing 100-150 points against Gawn during the single round he plays them.

There's no guarantees in SC scoring, but the safe bet is not going against Gawn and Grundy.

If the fixture was different, maybe it would work, but there's an absolute perfect storm brewing for Gawndy to be averaging 150+ in the first month and rookies all being hamstrung by coming up against Gawn in the first 3 rounds of the season.

How does Grundy fare against Stefan Martin ?

 

[freowho]

How does Grundy fare against Stefan Martin ?

Martin has been a good defensive ruckmen in the past. He's strong and gets his body in the way to take away space.

 

[Shaunpro1]

The extra premium talk of no Gawn or Grundy falls apart when youre burning through trades getting up to them whilst everyone else is upgrading.

 

[Toothless Tigers]

The extra premium talk of no Gawn or Grundy falls apart when youre burning through trades getting up to them whilst everyone else is upgrading.

The same could be applied to a premium midfielder, all comes down to luck.

Poor form, weather or injuries can and will impact scoring.

Games undercover may outscore games in the open due to weather conditions.

 

[wogitalia]

The extra premium talk of no Gawn or Grundy falls apart when youre burning through trades getting up to them whilst everyone else is upgrading.

I don't know how you get to the logical leap that getting Gawn and/or Grundy into your side isn't "upgrading" but I'd say they both count as pretty significant upgrades.

 

[wogitalia]

While reading the above, I kept thinking that there are 3,300 SC pts to be shared each game and if the Rucks and Inside Mids SC pts are down, who will benefit from the 3,300 pts?

Judging from the preseason games, there was a large increase in uncontested marks, which are only worth only 2 pts. (contested marks are worth 6 pts.). Also, likely the game is expected to be more free flowing, which means less tackling (that's 4 pts per tackle not counted).

If there are too many SC pts not used up in a game, then Champion Data will inflate the SC pts, so maybe the Ruckmen and the inside Mids SC pts will be bolstered to something that they have been scoring

Just a though!

I'm actually expecting the teams DT to stay roughly the same. I'd expect the outside receivers are going to get uncontested marks at higher volume, which would o***et the contested marks, and that the extra kicks/handball receives are going to also largely counter the contested stats.

In short, don't think there's going to need to be scaling to make up for it and even if there is, the outside guys are going to have as much claim to it.

Whether it actually happens or is a preseason blip is the question, it sure didn't feel like the teams were really trying to do anything with the man on the mark rule defensively and I'd be shocked if that happens in the real stuff. A genuine impact rule change wouldn't have teams showing their hands early.

 

[Connoisseur]

M Gawn:
Since 2018:
20 or more possessions: 157.07 from 14 (14/14 120+, 9/14 150+)
Less than 20: 122.32 from 43 (9/43 below 100, 24/43 120+, 7/43 150+)

 

[OVERKILL]

Pending selection starting to feel comfortable with Martin, Meek and Flynn in rucks,
Gives me 13 solid keepers on other lines.

 

[Herbie66]

Think I have decided on :-

Gawn , Flynn / Meek

Depending on selections

Allows 5 premiums in defence , 6 in the mids & Dangermouse F1

 

[donnybuang]

The extra premium talk of no Gawn or Grundy falls apart when youre burning through trades getting up to them whilst everyone else is upgrading.

Gawn is typically gettable for 600k during the season. It's doable.

 

[donnybuang]

M Gawn:
Since 2018:
20 or more possessions: 157.07 from 14 (14/14 120+, 9/14 150+)
Less than 20: 122.32 from 43 (9/43 below 100, 24/43 120+, 7/43 150+)

He didn't get many against the doggies. Potentially because of the quicker ball movement???
Anyone know how he went in the first practice match.

 

[McLovin]

Personally I'd almost prefer we didn't have a hint at more than one rookie ruck option. The possibility is so tantalising, but without any certainty on Meek or Hunter getting the opportunity for even one price rise it's difficult to get too excited. 3 rookie rucks= going all in without looking at your cards. 2= having a bet each way. There's also the possibility that we're reading too much into the effect of the new rules on ruck scoring or the interpretation of the rule getting looser as the season goes on.

 

[NT.Thunder]

So if you go rookie rucks either 1 or 2 starting, do people have a plan on how they can get Gawn in round 3 because I have a plan if Gawn doesn't fire and need to get down to rookie rucks.

 

[Locus Levy Lunacy]

So if you go rookie rucks either 1 or 2 starting, do people have a plan on how they can get Gawn in round 3 because I have a plan if Gawn doesn't fire and need to get down to rookie rucks.

Do you have a plan to get a mid that has gone nuts that you don't have? Particularly if all your mid rookies have been dropped or are scoring 40's?

You can sideways Grundy if necessary. Or trade a failing/injured mid to a rookie you have missed, and then trade the rookie ruck up to Gawn. That's the advantage of Martin - you can get to Gawn more easily if it becomes essential.

 

[NT.Thunder]

Do you have a plan to get a mid that has gone nuts that you don't have? Particularly if all your mid rookies have been dropped or are scoring 40's?

You can sideways Grundy if necessary. Or trade a failing/injured mid to a rookie you have missed, and then trade the rookie ruck up to Gawn. That's the advantage of Martin - you can get to Gawn more easily if it becomes essential.

There's likely no way you'll be able to trade a rookie ruck to Gawn in 2 trades (unless your sitting on a nest egg of coin) is what I'm saying and if Gawn is scoring well under the new rules I suspect Grundy is also so you won't want to trade him sideways. Mids are easier IMO as there are plenty of options there and the potential differential in points is a lot less.
All I'm saying is that many of us suspect scoring may change, I'm happy to watch any trends the first 2 rounds and adjust from there but I'm more confident in my options going from Gawn/Grundy down to fix areas than I would eiither trying to get Gawn from a $102k Meek/Hunter/Treacy.

 

[HoleyFrijole$]

He didn't get many against the doggies. Potentially because of the quicker ball movement???
Anyone know how he went in the first practice match.

He was tracking for 140 at half time, felt more like p/s q in the rack

 

[donnybuang]

There's likely no way you'll be able to trade a rookie ruck to Gawn in 2 trades (unless your sitting on a nest egg of coin) is what I'm saying and if Gawn is scoring well under the new rules I suspect Grundy is also so you won't want to trade him sideways. Mids are easier IMO as there are plenty of options there and the potential differential in points is a lot less.
All I'm saying is that many of us suspect scoring may change, I'm happy to watch any trends the first 2 rounds and adjust from there but I'm more confident in my options going from Gawn/Grundy down to fix areas than I would eiither trying to get Gawn from a $102k Meek/Hunter/Treacy.

2 midpricers to Gawn + rookie may work.
What's your cut off point for dumping Gawn in round 3?

He was tracking for 140 at half time, felt more like p/s q in the rack

Yeah, that's why one game is such a poor sample. He's had ps games previously where he's picked up plenty more touches.

 

[wogitalia]

Gawn is typically gettable for 600k during the season. It's doable.

I don't know what Gawn you're talking about but...

2020 - Lowest price 683,600 in Round 17
2019 - Lowest price 604,300 in Round 17, 640k in round 5 the lowest before the season was over.
2018 - *Started below 600k, was 608k by round 6 and 669,400 by round 8.

That's not a terribly good record of being available for 600k in a part of the season where you're not done already if you don't have him.

It's always possible but it probably involves injury.

There's likely no way you'll be able to trade a rookie ruck to Gawn in 2 trades (unless your sitting on a nest egg of coin) is what I'm saying and if Gawn is scoring well under the new rules I suspect Grundy is also so you won't want to trade him sideways. Mids are easier IMO as there are plenty of options there and the potential differential in points is a lot less.
All I'm saying is that many of us suspect scoring may change, I'm happy to watch any trends the first 2 rounds and adjust from there but I'm more confident in my options going from Gawn/Grundy down to fix areas than I would eiither trying to get Gawn from a $102k Meek/Hunter/Treacy.

You can trade anyone to Gawn realistically so doesn't have to be one of the rucks. Gawn realistically needs to be in the 160+ range to be outproducing Flynn, he's capable of that for a burst but 8 weeks seems a pretty big ask. Of course if he does go close for the 8 weeks it's going to be a long path to the upgrade still.

The key though if you're not taking Gawn is you better have upped your premium count across the team because you need to budget a 700k+ upgrade in and if you've got one of those, that's an entire upgrade extra you basically can't afford. Probably would want to be planning for two really just to be on the safe side.

I don't personally see any real way the new rules help Gawn or Grundy. Less stoppages is less hitouts, hurts Grundy on the clearance work as well but hits Gawn hard on hitouts to advantage, a huge stat for him. Less long kicks to a contest hurts him a huge amount as both Melbourne's long kick to a contest target and also as an elite kick behind the play target. It's definitely possible none of those things eventuate and he's back where he starts but basically all the measurable outcomes from the limited sample are negatives to the rucks. But he's still Gawn at the end of the day