Lot of tinkering going on here and a very interesting mix obtained, there's a few versions of this but currently this is the one I've settled, this is a pure speculation and I'm sure anyone who's paid any attention to what I've said will be laughing at some of the choices
My final team may look nothing like this, ultimately the rookies will pick my side and I'd happily ditch a defender if I can.
Backs
Laird - Hasn't left my side although I'll admit I wavered a little for the first time after the preseason game!
Ridley - Was in my very first draft, didn't love his preseason but he played well in the games and I love his upside.
Daniel - Probably the one I like the least with the fear of tags but also the one I like the rule changes the most for.
Stewart - Finally got him in, even if it cost me Lloyd, I see some upside here also.
Short - Just love him as a player so happy to turn that into hatred very quickly if he lets me down
Highmore - The best on-field value right now, I still like Cox but only paying for him if I have to.
Kosi - Safe bench choice.
Murray - Value and he looked good and has a chance. I would like someone a bit safer but I'll let you know when that unicorn appears.
I'd like Lloyd, especially with 5 premiums but going down to Stewart (I think it's really Daniel who is the 5th chosen here though) effectively allowed me to get Dunkley in (there were two other moves also).
At this point I'm basically on the 5 premiums path, to Lloyd or not to Lloyd is the question.
Mids
Macrae - Love the rule changes for him. Love his durability. Love his scoring history. Don't love the Treloar cat among the pigeons but he's the guy I think is able to weather the storm and will still be the top Dog, pardon the pun.
Merrett - Loved his preseason, looks excellent. Rule changes suit him, role change matching with end of last year and love him as a player.
Walsh - Speculative but I think the rule changes suit him and I think he can push 115, which is what I need from one of the 4 "speculative" picks.
Cripps - It's amazing how a bad game can sway the feelings, went from locked in until I watched him and then panic sets in. Ultimately it's a guy who has gone 117+ in 2 of his last 3 years priced at 97. 110 will do the job.
Rowell - Yep... he weaseled his way in, I can't say it was a plan but when I ditched Gawn all of a sudden Dow and a 123k rookie could be Taranto and Rowell and, while I'm not a huge believer in either, I can't stop the idea that both can hit premium numbers and that at their prices the keeper threshold is reduced. I'm hoping for 110 here.
Taranto - Yep... after what has felt like a preseason waging a vendetta against him (despite actually liking him as a player!) he also has found a way in. This particular team needs a 105 from him. Really what I need is a 115, two 110s and a 105 from the 4 value picks and they can all stay all season. Taranto handballs a bit more and he fixes his ratio a decent chunk.
Campbell - I think he's my top rated of the genuine rookies at this point. Worth the premium.
Powell - Also really liked what I saw from him, looks the kind who if he's there round one he'll be very successful. There is a fair bit of competition for spots though. He's worth the premium imo but if the JS looks very iffy I can drop to other options.
Gulden - Love him.
Scott - Will see what happens but I think he's there round 1 and a very solid rookie, FWIW I'd probably start him up forward over Rowe, I haven't actually tinkered with rookies in this draft except the ruck setup.
I actually really like this mix, I'd love Neale. I had to drop Kelly to Cripps to get Dunkley in up forward but otherwise I think I'm happy with the choices. Which feels weird. Rookies are the interesting part.
Rucks
Grundy - I think the rucks are going to fall a fair bit. I think Grundy is underpriced on previous seasons, therefore I think Grundy will be ball park fair value at this price if he can bounce back to previous levels while copping a hit from market movement. Somehow despite that, I'd still prefer Gawn but this was the other change that allowed Dunkley and I think Dunkley could go hard.
Flynn - Like him a lot, was genuinely impressed by his work. I remember being impressed with him a few years ago in preseason as well. I feel very confident that he's a top 3 rookie this year barring injury.
Meek - Was super impressed with his game, just looks a talent and as much as I rate Darcy he's done nothing to deserve to play ahead of Meek after a few years of opportunity, if anything he's done the opposite by constantly being grossly overweight. I'm actually confident that Meek makes the #1 ruck spot his own, Darcy will get the chance to do a Marshall basically if he can.
I really want to go the 3 rookies but as much as I rate Meek I know how highly Darcy is rated internally and he should be so if Meek failed his JS is an issue and if he's not playing the 3 rookie rucks can quickly become a disaster. Hunter doesn't have the JS either with all the unknown. FWIW I actually really like the look of Hunter and think he holds out McKernan so Marshall can ease back in up forward but Ryder is playing whenever he's back and we have no idea when. If they came out and said Ryder wont be back until round 6, Meek is picked alongside Darcy and Flynn is picked, I'd go 3 rookies.
Forwards
Dunkley - I like Danger more but I can't find the cash and I still like Dunkley and even though I like Danger more I can totally create the story where Dunkley is the top forward.
Phillips - This pick is probably more about my overall forward expectations than it is Phillips. I think 95 is going to be good for F4-6 this year, especially if you're paying 75 for it. At 75, if Phillips can get to 90 I think he works out as a keeper.
Caldwell - Same theory basically only high 80s would probably do the trick here. I think Caldwell can push to something similar to Bailey Smith last year (92) and if he did that's a keeper by my numbers.
Ziebell - High end rookie with genuine keeper potential, imo. If he's bad at his role he should score mid 80s. If he's good, 100 is genuinely in play. He won't matter though until people start trading him out as he should be the first player picked in every side.
Warner - Not sold here but if he's there round 1 and genuinely looks to have the wing, that changes. Plenty of options but the issue is so many are more expensive which would mean changes, did someone say 3 rookie rucks
Rowe - Safe as houses, as mentioned, probably start Scott over him.
Fullarton - Honestly, I forgot about him after tinkering with a 3 rookie ruck setup, probably go someone else here but don't mind him.
Brockman - Liked what I saw. There are options around for this spot.
Would be targeting Danger and probably Marshall as the final two here if they look good. Dusty at his annual round 8 discount also an option. Mostly this structure here is about a belief in the forward premium group being overpriced or unavailable to the point that the requirements for the position drop. I don't really love any of the sub-premium guys to push 105+ under current scenarios, which means I think you've basically got Dunkley and Danger as the 105+ guys and then I think a group of 95-100 guys left over which means well priced 92s will match that.
Generally if I've nailed my picks/thoughts then this is a 16 keeper team which makes the Lloyd, Danger, Gawn and Neale upgrades a heck of a lot more obtainable, especially if I can get a Martin/Marshall for a nice discount, the final mid I'm not worried, one of those guys is going to be cheap at some point. The risk obviously is that I need the cows to produce as I don't have as many of them and working with less "cash generation" spots means I need upgrade targets that also generate some cash.
Other major issue with this side is the cheap rookies selected are not a terribly flexible group so if I want this team I've got to work in pretty well defined parameters which could scrap the whole thing very rapidly.
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