Analysis 2021 Updating Some Old Rowsus Threads
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Original Thread
The formatting in some of these old threads is a bit squiffy, from when we changed sites. My opologies that some the tables are pretty much unreadable.
Chasing Last Years Points.....
Chasing Last Years Points (MkII) ....
2014: Chasing Last Years Points .....
One of the main points to come out of the original thread, was that players that make a 20+ jump in SC average, and land on an average of 102+, basically never have an increase again the following season. In the original, only Ablett and Swan bucked the trend, from 29 players that had achieved it.
So how does it look now?
Well, there are now 73 players that fit the 2 criteria of a 20+ jump in average, and their average going into the 102+ area.
@wogitalia asked me in the QFR thread "But how do they go in the season after they fail to back up their jump?".
Good question! So I have added to the analysis. In the table below you will see 3 Rows.
0 refers to the year they made the jump.
1 refers to the year after they made the jump.
2 refers to 2 years after they made the jump.
So "0 to 1" is how their average changed the first year after the jump. "0 to 2" is how their average compared to their jump year, but 2 seasons later, and then of course "1 to 2" refers to the change in average from the first season after the jump, to the second year after the jump.
Here is the results
DNP/YTP = Did not play the following season/Yet to play the following season.
0 to 1
19 of the 73 players dropped their average by 20 or more, the year after their jump. 8 of those 19 were 30+!!!
35 of the 73 dropped by 10 or more. A further 16 dropped by 3 to 10 points. So 51 out of 73 dropped by over 3 points.
7 of the 73 made small progress of 1 to 6 points on their average, while Ablett and Gawn made a +18.0 and + 16.4.
Of the 9 players that "beat the curse", 6 of them did it from when their jump landed them in the 102 to 108 area, so still had plenty of room for improvement. 2 were 111 to 114, and 2 were 123 to 127. All 4 of those made only very small improvements.
0 to 2
Funnily enough, looking at the second season after their jump, and comparing it to their jump season, 22 players fell by 20 or more, a worse result than the first season after! 8 of those 22 were 30+ drops. 45 of the 73 dropped by 3 or more. 11 made a small loss or gain. Only 7 had a decent increase, when comparing their second season after their jump, to their jump season. 10 didn't play that season, or are yet to play that second season after the jump.
1 to 2
Around half, 35 of 73, had a drop from the first season after the jump, to the second season after the jump. 28 had some sort of recovery, to a decent recovery.
The formatting in some of these old threads is a bit squiffy, from when we changed sites. My opologies that some the tables are pretty much unreadable.
Chasing Last Years Points.....
Chasing Last Years Points (MkII) ....
2014: Chasing Last Years Points .....
One of the main points to come out of the original thread, was that players that make a 20+ jump in SC average, and land on an average of 102+, basically never have an increase again the following season. In the original, only Ablett and Swan bucked the trend, from 29 players that had achieved it.
So how does it look now?
Well, there are now 73 players that fit the 2 criteria of a 20+ jump in average, and their average going into the 102+ area.
@wogitalia asked me in the QFR thread "But how do they go in the season after they fail to back up their jump?".
Good question! So I have added to the analysis. In the table below you will see 3 Rows.
0 refers to the year they made the jump.
1 refers to the year after they made the jump.
2 refers to 2 years after they made the jump.
So "0 to 1" is how their average changed the first year after the jump. "0 to 2" is how their average compared to their jump year, but 2 seasons later, and then of course "1 to 2" refers to the change in average from the first season after the jump, to the second year after the jump.
Here is the results
DNP/YTP = Did not play the following season/Yet to play the following season.
0 to 1
19 of the 73 players dropped their average by 20 or more, the year after their jump. 8 of those 19 were 30+!!!
35 of the 73 dropped by 10 or more. A further 16 dropped by 3 to 10 points. So 51 out of 73 dropped by over 3 points.
7 of the 73 made small progress of 1 to 6 points on their average, while Ablett and Gawn made a +18.0 and + 16.4.
Of the 9 players that "beat the curse", 6 of them did it from when their jump landed them in the 102 to 108 area, so still had plenty of room for improvement. 2 were 111 to 114, and 2 were 123 to 127. All 4 of those made only very small improvements.
0 to 2
Funnily enough, looking at the second season after their jump, and comparing it to their jump season, 22 players fell by 20 or more, a worse result than the first season after! 8 of those 22 were 30+ drops. 45 of the 73 dropped by 3 or more. 11 made a small loss or gain. Only 7 had a decent increase, when comparing their second season after their jump, to their jump season. 10 didn't play that season, or are yet to play that second season after the jump.
1 to 2
Around half, 35 of 73, had a drop from the first season after the jump, to the second season after the jump. 28 had some sort of recovery, to a decent recovery.
In the 0 to 1 section above, we saw that most of the players that beat the curse did so from a low base of 102 to 108.
That got me to thinking, what if we split the results table up into 4 different sections.
Players that landed in the 102 to 110 area, against players that landed in the 110+.
Players that made a jump of 20 to 27 points, against players that jumped 27+ points.
This table is the 20 players that jumped by 27+ points, and ended up in the 110+ area.
As expected, their results are worse than the general results shown above. The thing is, they're not remarkably worse.
Basically, it's worse in the area where some of the players either kept going with their improvement, or fought back, after their subsequent correction/loss of average.
That got me to thinking, what if we split the results table up into 4 different sections.
Players that landed in the 102 to 110 area, against players that landed in the 110+.
Players that made a jump of 20 to 27 points, against players that jumped 27+ points.
This table is the 20 players that jumped by 27+ points, and ended up in the 110+ area.
As expected, their results are worse than the general results shown above. The thing is, they're not remarkably worse.
Basically, it's worse in the area where some of the players either kept going with their improvement, or fought back, after their subsequent correction/loss of average.
This table shows the 21 players that jumped by 20 to 27 points, and landed in the 110+ area.
Once again, the majority suffered in the season after their jump. The interesting thing here is, that around 40% of them made some sort of recovery, after suffering that correction. The recovery is very rarely of the same magnitude as the correction, so they are still behind the average they set 2 seasons earlier.
Once again, the majority suffered in the season after their jump. The interesting thing here is, that around 40% of them made some sort of recovery, after suffering that correction. The recovery is very rarely of the same magnitude as the correction, so they are still behind the average they set 2 seasons earlier.
This table shows the 16 players that jumped by 27+, and landed in the 102 to 110 area.
Yet again, the first year after the jump reveals a poor result, with 13 of the 15 to play dropping by 10+ the next season. The interesting thing is, that 7 of the 12 to play a second season, recovered somewhat. 3 of those 7 even set a new high!
Yet again, the first year after the jump reveals a poor result, with 13 of the 15 to play dropping by 10+ the next season. The interesting thing is, that 7 of the 12 to play a second season, recovered somewhat. 3 of those 7 even set a new high!
Conclusion
I still think this is a thing to be aware of. It's so easy to say "Yeah, but this player will beat it!". 90% don't, and 70% of them experience a notable drop.
The faster they climbed, the higher they got, the worse they fared. I think if you are going to try and take a player to beat this curse, I think it needs to be someone who jumped low 20's, and finished below 110, preferably, below 105.
Here are the "cursed" players for 2021.
Jack Steele 122.5 / +27.5
Jeremy Howe 120.5 / +41.0
Christian Petracca 117.5 / +36.3
Sam Menegola 107.8 / +26.4
Hugh Greenwood 105.6 / +20.3
Tom Liberatore 106.1 / +23.7
Touk Miller 105.9 / +21.1
Cameron Guthrie 103.2 / +27.0
Timothy English 102.6 / +20.0
Brayden Maynard 102.4 / +22,4
Mitchell Hinge 102.0 / +37.5
I currently have 2 of these 11 in my team!
I still think this is a thing to be aware of. It's so easy to say "Yeah, but this player will beat it!". 90% don't, and 70% of them experience a notable drop.
The faster they climbed, the higher they got, the worse they fared. I think if you are going to try and take a player to beat this curse, I think it needs to be someone who jumped low 20's, and finished below 110, preferably, below 105.
Here are the "cursed" players for 2021.
Jack Steele 122.5 / +27.5
Jeremy Howe 120.5 / +41.0
Christian Petracca 117.5 / +36.3
Sam Menegola 107.8 / +26.4
Hugh Greenwood 105.6 / +20.3
Tom Liberatore 106.1 / +23.7
Touk Miller 105.9 / +21.1
Cameron Guthrie 103.2 / +27.0
Timothy English 102.6 / +20.0
Brayden Maynard 102.4 / +22,4
Mitchell Hinge 102.0 / +37.5
I currently have 2 of these 11 in my team!
Original Thread
100+ Season Players Sorted By Age
As the title suggest, it showed every season, of every player (174 at that stage in 2016) that ever had a 100+ season, and sorted them by age.
In this updated version, I have saved myself some work/time, and bumped it up to players that have had a 110+ season. There are 103 players in the history of SC that have recorded a 110+ season. Between them, they have recorded 237 110+ seasons.
100+ Season Players Sorted By Age
As the title suggest, it showed every season, of every player (174 at that stage in 2016) that ever had a 100+ season, and sorted them by age.
In this updated version, I have saved myself some work/time, and bumped it up to players that have had a 110+ season. There are 103 players in the history of SC that have recorded a 110+ season. Between them, they have recorded 237 110+ seasons.
Let's go Quentin Tarantino, and start at the finish.
Here is the summary table of the 1,049 seasons of those 103 players, sorted by score range, and age.
The first thing that might strike you, is that only 3 of the 58 120+ seasons have been recorded by players 29 and 30 years old, and none by players 31+ years old. At the other end of the scale, only 1 20 year old, and 1 21 year old have achieved a 120+ season. While it might sound obvious, 53 of the 58 120+ seasons (91.4%) are recorded by 22 to 28 year olds.
Now ask yourself honestly, how many times have you put a 29 year old down for a likely 120 season?
Here are the 5 players from outside that 22yo to 28yo group.
20yo Hodge 135
21yo Dal Santo 124
29yo Ablett 137
29yo Cox 122
30yo Howe 121
So J Howe last season became the oldest player to record a SC 120+ season!!!
There's more on Howe to come!
Here is the summary table of the 1,049 seasons of those 103 players, sorted by score range, and age.
The first thing that might strike you, is that only 3 of the 58 120+ seasons have been recorded by players 29 and 30 years old, and none by players 31+ years old. At the other end of the scale, only 1 20 year old, and 1 21 year old have achieved a 120+ season. While it might sound obvious, 53 of the 58 120+ seasons (91.4%) are recorded by 22 to 28 year olds.
Now ask yourself honestly, how many times have you put a 29 year old down for a likely 120 season?
Here are the 5 players from outside that 22yo to 28yo group.
20yo Hodge 135
21yo Dal Santo 124
29yo Ablett 137
29yo Cox 122
30yo Howe 121
So J Howe last season became the oldest player to record a SC 120+ season!!!
There's more on Howe to come!
Some snippets to come out of the tables below.
Players with multiple 120+ seasons
7 Ablett
4 Swan, Pendlebury
3 Dangerfield, Fyfe, Gawn, Grundy, Macrae
2 Neale
Those 9 players represent 32 of the 58 120+ scores recorded. There are 26 players who have recorded 1 x 120+ score.
120 is the magic number. No player has ever recorded a season over 120, dipped below 120, then managed to get back over 120 again. So once you've been above 120, and fall below it again, you never get back over it again.
However .......
Fyfe went over 120 (twice), fell below 120 for 3 seasons, then recorded a season of exactly 120 (so he didn't get over 120! )
Let's look at how that works for all the scores from 110 to 120.
27 players have recorded a 120 season, then fallen below it again. Only 1 made it back.
31 players have recorded a 119 season, then fallen below it again. Only 5 made it back.
33 players have recorded a 118 season, then fallen below it again. Only 9 made it back.
37 players have recorded a 117 season, then fallen below it again. Only 11 made it back.
43 players have recorded a 116 season, then fallen below it again. Only 11 made it back.
50 players have recorded a 115 season, then fallen below it again. Only 14 made it back.
58 players have recorded a 114 season, then fallen below it again. Only 17 made it back.
65 players have recorded a 113 season, then fallen below it again. Only 24 made it back.
74 players have recorded a 112 season, then fallen below it again. Only 32 made it back.
83 players have recorded a 111 season, then fallen below it again. Only 39 made it back.
90 players have recorded a 110 season, then fallen below it again. Only 41 made it back.
Players with multiple 120+ seasons
7 Ablett
4 Swan, Pendlebury
3 Dangerfield, Fyfe, Gawn, Grundy, Macrae
2 Neale
Those 9 players represent 32 of the 58 120+ scores recorded. There are 26 players who have recorded 1 x 120+ score.
120 is the magic number. No player has ever recorded a season over 120, dipped below 120, then managed to get back over 120 again. So once you've been above 120, and fall below it again, you never get back over it again.
However .......
Fyfe went over 120 (twice), fell below 120 for 3 seasons, then recorded a season of exactly 120 (so he didn't get over 120!
)Let's look at how that works for all the scores from 110 to 120.
27 players have recorded a 120 season, then fallen below it again. Only 1 made it back.
31 players have recorded a 119 season, then fallen below it again. Only 5 made it back.
33 players have recorded a 118 season, then fallen below it again. Only 9 made it back.
37 players have recorded a 117 season, then fallen below it again. Only 11 made it back.
43 players have recorded a 116 season, then fallen below it again. Only 11 made it back.
50 players have recorded a 115 season, then fallen below it again. Only 14 made it back.
58 players have recorded a 114 season, then fallen below it again. Only 17 made it back.
65 players have recorded a 113 season, then fallen below it again. Only 24 made it back.
74 players have recorded a 112 season, then fallen below it again. Only 32 made it back.
83 players have recorded a 111 season, then fallen below it again. Only 39 made it back.
90 players have recorded a 110 season, then fallen below it again. Only 41 made it back.
Grundy has 3 seasons over 120 (131, 130, 120), but has never recorded a season between 100 and 120.
Howe recorded a 120 season last year, in his 10th season. His 2nd best season is only a 94!!!
Steele recorded a 123 season last season, in his 6th season. His 2nd best is season is only a 95!!!
Matthew Lloyd recorded a 120 season, in 2006 (the 2nd season of SC, he only played 3 games.), in his 5 seasons of SC, this was his only season above 96!!!
These are the only 4 players to record a 120 season, without ever having a season between 100 and 120.
Ablett recorded 7 seasons in a row of 120+, and 10 seasons in a row of 110+. What a SC stud!!!
Pendlebury recorded 4 seasons in a row of 120+, and 7 seasons in a row of 110+. He recorded his 8th season 110 last season.
Dangerfield has 8 seasons of 110+ (6 in a row), and J Selwood has 7 seasons of 110+ (6 in a row). Judd and Dal Santo had 6 seasons of 110+, and it may surprise some, but Swan only had 5 seasons of 110+, along with Goldstein and Fyfe.
Below is every player to record a 110+ season.
First the current players, then the retired players. They are listed in alphabetical order.
The purple blocks represent the year 2004, so no SC that year, or before.
The red blocks represent the player retiring.
Howe recorded a 120 season last year, in his 10th season. His 2nd best season is only a 94!!!
Steele recorded a 123 season last season, in his 6th season. His 2nd best is season is only a 95!!!
Matthew Lloyd recorded a 120 season, in 2006 (the 2nd season of SC, he only played 3 games.), in his 5 seasons of SC, this was his only season above 96!!!
These are the only 4 players to record a 120 season, without ever having a season between 100 and 120.
Ablett recorded 7 seasons in a row of 120+, and 10 seasons in a row of 110+. What a SC stud!!!
Pendlebury recorded 4 seasons in a row of 120+, and 7 seasons in a row of 110+. He recorded his 8th season 110 last season.
Dangerfield has 8 seasons of 110+ (6 in a row), and J Selwood has 7 seasons of 110+ (6 in a row). Judd and Dal Santo had 6 seasons of 110+, and it may surprise some, but Swan only had 5 seasons of 110+, along with Goldstein and Fyfe.
Below is every player to record a 110+ season.
First the current players, then the retired players. They are listed in alphabetical order.
The purple blocks represent the year 2004, so no SC that year, or before.
The red blocks represent the player retiring.
