Position 2021: Ruck Discussion

[NT.Thunder]

I don't know what Gawn you're talking about but...

2020 - Lowest price 683,600 in Round 17
2019 - Lowest price 604,300 in Round 17, 640k in round 5 the lowest before the season was over.
2018 - *Started below 600k, was 608k by round 6 and 669,400 by round 8.

That's not a terribly good record of being available for 600k in a part of the season where you're not done already if you don't have him.

It's always possible but it probably involves injury.




You can trade anyone to Gawn realistically so doesn't have to be one of the rucks. Gawn realistically needs to be in the 160+ range to be outproducing Flynn, he's capable of that for a burst but 8 weeks seems a pretty big ask. Of course if he does go close for the 8 weeks it's going to be a long path to the upgrade still.

The key though if you're not taking Gawn is you better have upped your premium count across the team because you need to budget a 700k+ upgrade in and if you've got one of those, that's an entire upgrade extra you basically can't afford. Probably would want to be planning for two really just to be on the safe side.

I don't personally see any real way the new rules help Gawn or Grundy. Less stoppages is less hitouts, hurts Grundy on the clearance work as well but hits Gawn hard on hitouts to advantage, a huge stat for him. Less long kicks to a contest hurts him a huge amount as both Melbourne's long kick to a contest target and also as an elite kick behind the play target. It's definitely possible none of those things eventuate and he's back where he starts but basically all the measurable outcomes from the limited sample are negatives to the rucks. But he's still Gawn at the end of the day

Well that’s not entirely true, there are only a handful of players that will be available to you to be able to trade a $102k rookie ruck to Gawn before a price rise round 3 if needed. Depends on cash held, but likely you’ll need in excess of $600k which is not easy to find in this game early. If there is an injury or rookie ruck is dropped in 2 rounds for whatever reason it can really become a **** show.
I’m not convinced I’m going Gawn/Grundy, very much likely though as Its not something I want to experience again. Especially when it’s likely there will be rookie corrections early and for some premium sideways, it’s just a complication and conversation I don’t want to be involved in week 3.

 

[dylan123]

I don't personally see any real way the new rules help Gawn or Grundy. Less stoppages is less hitouts, hurts Grundy on the clearance work as well but hits Gawn hard on hitouts to advantage, a huge stat for him. Less long kicks to a contest hurts him a huge amount as both Melbourne's long kick to a contest target and also as an elite kick behind the play target. It's definitely possible none of those things eventuate and he's back where he starts but basically all the measurable outcomes from the limited sample are negatives to the rucks. But he's still Gawn at the end of the day

Remind me, outside of not being able to move on the mark, what other rules changes have been brought in that might cause the above impacts?

 

[dylan123]

I had no intention of going Gawn to start the season as I think he really benefited from reduced game time and extra points to be handed out however his fixture early on is pretty hard to deny and getting that elite scoring from him early rather than trading him in after that kind of form (which is what I did last year) seems like a winner to me.

 

[wogitalia]

Well that’s not entirely true, there are only a handful of players that will be available to you to be able to trade a $102k rookie ruck to Gawn before a price rise round 3 if needed. Depends on cash held, but likely you’ll need in excess of $600k which is not easy to find in this game early. If there is an injury or rookie ruck is dropped in 2 rounds for whatever reason it can really become a **** show.
I’m not convinced I’m going Gawn/Grundy, very much likely though as Its not something I want to experience again. Especially when it’s likely there will be rookie corrections early and for some premium sideways, it’s just a complication and conversation I don’t want to be involved in week 3.

It's not easy but you're definitely ignoring all the other positions in this scenario when that's not the case, can go say Danger to Gawn, admittedly still takes some cash and it's not desireable but if somehow Gawn is looking at a 160+ season and forcing hands, it's going to be needed I guess. Personally if I'm going against Gawn I'm pretty confident in the assumption that Gawn is not a 160+ player which is really the starting point that he could challenge my low end expectations for Flynn.

I don't think there is anyone under the impression that if all the rookies bomb out, Gawn isn't going to become a must have but with what looks like 5 at least in play, it's probably not going to be needed. Especially if only starting one.

It's absolutely possible that Flynn, Meek, Treacy, Hunter and Fullarton are all gone by round 3 but it doesn't really seem that likely that at least one of them aren't playing, especially as Meek and Treacy are quite probably handcu*** as well until Lobb returns.

3 rookie rucks is definitely a much tougher sell.

Remind me, outside of not being able to move on the mark, what other rules changes have been brought in that might cause the above impacts?

To be fair the kick-in rule may benefit him if teams are going to go long, dare say the opposition will kick away from him though as much as possible.

Man on the mark is the principle one though. Stoppages notably down in preseason and the rucks all pretty much scored at lower rates than would be expected.

 

[donnybuang]

I don't know what Gawn you're talking about but...

2020 - Lowest price 683,600 in Round 17
2019 - Lowest price 604,300 in Round 17, 640k in round 5 the lowest before the season was over.
2018 - *Started below 600k, was 608k by round 6 and 669,400 by round 8.

That's not a terribly good record of being available for 600k in a part of the season where you're not done already if you don't have him.

It's always possible but it probably involves injury.




You can trade anyone to Gawn realistically so doesn't have to be one of the rucks. Gawn realistically needs to be in the 160+ range to be outproducing Flynn, he's capable of that for a burst but 8 weeks seems a pretty big ask. Of course if he does go close for the 8 weeks it's going to be a long path to the upgrade still.

The key though if you're not taking Gawn is you better have upped your premium count across the team because you need to budget a 700k+ upgrade in and if you've got one of those, that's an entire upgrade extra you basically can't afford. Probably would want to be planning for two really just to be on the safe side.

I don't personally see any real way the new rules help Gawn or Grundy. Less stoppages is less hitouts, hurts Grundy on the clearance work as well but hits Gawn hard on hitouts to advantage, a huge stat for him. Less long kicks to a contest hurts him a huge amount as both Melbourne's long kick to a contest target and also as an elite kick behind the play target. It's definitely possible none of those things eventuate and he's back where he starts but basically all the measurable outcomes from the limited sample are negatives to the rucks. But he's still Gawn at the end of the day

Yeah true, not sure I looked at it carefully enough. 2020s probably an outlier. 650k would be more realistic during upgrade season.

 

[Peter56]

Last year I went Gawnless and started Naismith and we all know how that went
Took me ages to be able to get Gawn in and he was somewhere near his top price when I did. So never again.
But the one thing that stood out to me, miserably watching him on TV racking up the points was how many intercept marks he took in defence. The rules might have changed slightly but this side of his game should stay strong.

 

[freowho]

Last year I went Gawnless and started Naismith and we all know how that went
Took me ages to be able to get Gawn in and he was somewhere near his top price when I did. So never again.
But the one thing that stood out to me, miserably watching him on TV racking up the points was how many intercept marks he took in defence. The rules might have changed slightly but this side of his game should stay strong.

I remember an afternoon watching Hawthorn kick it straight down his throat for 4 quarters. Surely Clarko won't let that happen again.

 

[Locus Levy Lunacy]

Last year I went Gawnless and started Naismith and we all know how that went
Took me ages to be able to get Gawn in and he was somewhere near his top price when I did. So never again.
But the one thing that stood out to me, miserably watching him on TV racking up the points was how many intercept marks he took in defence. The rules might have changed slightly but this side of his game should stay strong.

The unknown here is - will he be needed more forward with Brown and Weideman injured? If Jackson is the back-up ruck, he will probably be playing forward when Jackson rucks.

Gawn is a poor kick for goal and is unlikely to take as many contested marks up forward. As you say, he is much more likely to rack up the intercept/contested marks in defence.

Robbo's article is a bit worrying for all the dominant Melbourne players - basically lower your personal stat padding for the overall betterment of the team. Luckily Robbo is a peanut I suppose.

 

[baz_machine]

It's a simple equation of points lost from

(Grundy + Gawn) - (Flynn + Hunter / Meek)

Vs

(Premo + Premo) - (rookie + rookie) in whatever your alternative upgrade position it is.

Will Gawn / Grundy score at their prices? Most likely not. BUT I'm much more willing to punt on making up the difference between say Phillips vs Macrae than Flynn vs Gawn

 

[Buddy Starmart]

Of all the ones going a rookie ruck in Flynn r2 who out of Meek and Hunter is worth the shot and is it Gawn or grundy your taking on early thoughts

 

[wogitalia]

Of all the ones going a rookie ruck in Flynn r2 who out of Meek and Hunter is worth the shot and is it Gawn or grundy your taking on early thoughts

Unless we hear something on Ryder I think Meek has the better chance.

Hunter would have to set the world on light to hold out Marshall and/or Ryder. Meek only has to beat out Darcy and looked good enough to do it, especially as he hobbles back from another injury and with no KPF meaning he could still stay in as a forward.

Basically wouldn't surprise me if Hunter scores more points but is done by round 5. I loved what I saw from Meek and think he's good enough to win the #1 spot for a sustained period.

If we got any clarity that Ryder isn't coming back or wont be back for 8+ weeks then my answer would be Hunter.

 

[Buddy Starmart]

by round

Unless we hear something on Ryder I think Meek has the better chance.

Hunter would have to set the world on light to hold out Marshall and/or Ryder. Meek only has to beat out Darcy and looked good enough to do it, especially as he hobbles back from another injury and with no KPF meaning he could still stay in as a forward.

Basically wouldn't surprise me if Hunter scores more points but is done by round 5. I loved what I saw from Meek and think he's good enough to win the #1 spot for a sustained period.

If we got any clarity that Ryder isn't coming back or wont be back for 8+ weeks then my answer would be Hunter.

good points hunter might do very well and make close 140k or more k by 3 price jumps

 

[Yasi]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1371943417664602112

hmmm.

 

[NT.Thunder]

Well, just wouldn't be SuperCoach without questioning the best ruck set-up options a day or two out.

Just watched Meek's highlight reel, really wish I hadn't.

 

[Socrates2]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1371943417664602112

hmmm.

This is terrible news.

 

[Locus Levy Lunacy]

This is terrible news.

Disagree, I reckon it's great news

Fleek locked in. Just a matter of whether the 3rd one is Martin or Hunter.

If Gawn loses 15% for less stoppages, 15% for scaling correction and 25% with playing forward and losing contested/intercept marks, he could be scoring around 100 - and that is the doubled captain score

 

[Pinnell]

Ive been close in this comp over the years. A round win, and another 3 more times in the top 10 for round. As high as 8th overall. Been lean pickings with lack of time over the past few years. Going to try something different with the 3 ruck rookies. Gawn and Grundy have been amazingly durable. Maybe this is the year they won't be.. wish me luck

 

[NT.Thunder]

Ive been close in this comp over the years. A round win, and another 3 more times in the top 10 for round. As high as 8th overall. Been lean pickings with lack of time over the past few years. Going to try something different with the 3 ruck rookies. Gawn and Grundy have been amazingly durable. Maybe this is the year they won't be.. wish me luck

Maybe they will be?

But that's why we love the game.

 

[Wheedus]

Well, just wouldn't be SuperCoach without questioning the best ruck set-up options a day or two out.

Just watched Meek's highlight reel, really wish I hadn't.

Did the same a couple of weeks back. Have to take it with a grain of salt but geez he looks impressive. I got him in my Ultimate legacy league with a late pick. I'm hoping that gives me enough joy to resist the temptation to take him in SC.

 

[Misky]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1371943417664602112

hmmm.

more time forward instead of sitting on the bench? Can't help to think that this will apply to a number of rucks this year and not just Gawn.... What will happen to their averages then?