Discussion SC 2021: Rookie Discussion
- Thread starter Brettthejett
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You're right about the timing of the injury being uncertain, and presumably it's pretty evenly spread across the match.
Given that, if we assume that on average the concussion occurs haflway through the game, and the rookie scores half of what they would normally manage (ignoring any "fresh legs" effect that allows them to score more per minute in a sub role than as a normal player):
- A player who normally averages 70 will see a score reduction of 35 (probably not a points issue, as presumably we won't field them)
- That will reduce their price by c. $15k after that price change (vs having scored a 70), and
- It will reduce their price after the 3 round price cycle by c. $35k (on the same basis)
Given that, if we assume that on average the concussion occurs haflway through the game, and the rookie scores half of what they would normally manage (ignoring any "fresh legs" effect that allows them to score more per minute in a sub role than as a normal player):
- A player who normally averages 70 will see a score reduction of 35 (probably not a points issue, as presumably we won't field them)
- That will reduce their price by c. $15k after that price change (vs having scored a 70), and
- It will reduce their price after the 3 round price cycle by c. $35k (on the same basis)
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I don't love him as a pick but with the potential lack of rookies he might be necessary.
I just don't agree with the line of thinking that because he's a small forward at GWS he will by default score poorly, yeah he might, but I don't think there's necessarily anything about GWS's forward structure which would stop him from winning some ball up the ground or would make him bad.
Their 3 general forwards who played more than 7 games last year all played up the ground rather than deep forward (Greene, Daniels, Lloyd).
I just don't agree with the line of thinking that because he's a small forward at GWS he will by default score poorly, yeah he might, but I don't think there's necessarily anything about GWS's forward structure which would stop him from winning some ball up the ground or would make him bad.
Their 3 general forwards who played more than 7 games last year all played up the ground rather than deep forward (Greene, Daniels, Lloyd).
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Yeah he's probably a bit away from debuting now at this stage, especially now with Sier and DeGoey getting through the pre-season relatively unscathed and Adams looking like he'll fit for the game on Friday.
There might even be one or two of the 2020 crop ahead of him in terms of getting a game in the midfield from where I sit, but he will play eventually.
There might even be one or two of the 2020 crop ahead of him in terms of getting a game in the midfield from where I sit, but he will play eventually.
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He's got a bit of x-factor about him and it was his first real run in semi-anger (preseason hitout).
To be fair his performance was almost the complete opposite of the intra-club against Geelong (and there was probably an increase in intensity being an official pre-season game and facing the premiers), but given our apparent forward line woes he'll get given a run for a few weeks I reckon to see if he can produce something ala Stephenson when we started him in round 1 in 2018.
If we had Kelly and Mihocek fit then Henry probably doesn't get the nod for context.
To be fair his performance was almost the complete opposite of the intra-club against Geelong (and there was probably an increase in intensity being an official pre-season game and facing the premiers), but given our apparent forward line woes he'll get given a run for a few weeks I reckon to see if he can produce something ala Stephenson when we started him in round 1 in 2018.
If we had Kelly and Mihocek fit then Henry probably doesn't get the nod for context.
You obviously don't follow Horse 
Being good with the ball is utterly meaningless, it will be entirely on whether he did the defensive aspects how he was told. Or at least that's the only logical answer for the majority of his selections.
Will give Horse credit on one thing though, when he plays kids he almost always gives them a couple of weeks to play their way out of the side.
2 of those, as experienced and hardened forwards crept over 60 and the other is an absolutely elite player who managed 84.
GWS problem is they move the ball methodically and painfully until they're forced into a long kick to a contest. There has been nothing in the preseason to indicate that will change, they scored some quick burst goals through stoppage dominance against Sydney but otherwise struggled immensely to score. Bruhn is going to be just about the last target up forward. I mean he just scored 63 on the back of 4 goals (of which one was a complete fluke/accident), he hasn't shown any real high possession or ability to find dangerous spaces in either game.
He might be good but I'd be genuinely surprised if he's a 65+ rookie, wouldn't shock me if a 65 was his high-range for his scoring in any game and I actually really rate him as a player but there's not many players who can score well in the role he's playing especially in a team that moves the ball like that. Even in teams that move it faster you're looking at Lonie, Farrell, Aarts and McCarthy types who as senior bodies are scraping past 60 as the best case.
What I will say is he's probably only a couple of injuries to a pretty injury prone midfield from a vastly different role which could make him a good slow burn type. 160k is a lot to pay for a bench rookie though. We've got Gulden confirmed (slightly better role and 43k cheaper) and I think we get Scott as a 2nd who has a considerably better role at 55k cheaper, so really only needing one more from a pretty big pool to push him out.
Being good with the ball is utterly meaningless, it will be entirely on whether he did the defensive aspects how he was told. Or at least that's the only logical answer for the majority of his selections.Will give Horse credit on one thing though, when he plays kids he almost always gives them a couple of weeks to play their way out of the side.
2 of those, as experienced and hardened forwards crept over 60 and the other is an absolutely elite player who managed 84.
GWS problem is they move the ball methodically and painfully until they're forced into a long kick to a contest. There has been nothing in the preseason to indicate that will change, they scored some quick burst goals through stoppage dominance against Sydney but otherwise struggled immensely to score. Bruhn is going to be just about the last target up forward. I mean he just scored 63 on the back of 4 goals (of which one was a complete fluke/accident), he hasn't shown any real high possession or ability to find dangerous spaces in either game.
He might be good but I'd be genuinely surprised if he's a 65+ rookie, wouldn't shock me if a 65 was his high-range for his scoring in any game and I actually really rate him as a player but there's not many players who can score well in the role he's playing especially in a team that moves the ball like that. Even in teams that move it faster you're looking at Lonie, Farrell, Aarts and McCarthy types who as senior bodies are scraping past 60 as the best case.
What I will say is he's probably only a couple of injuries to a pretty injury prone midfield from a vastly different role which could make him a good slow burn type. 160k is a lot to pay for a bench rookie though. We've got Gulden confirmed (slightly better role and 43k cheaper) and I think we get Scott as a 2nd who has a considerably better role at 55k cheaper, so really only needing one more from a pretty big pool to push him out.
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I think he just wants a cheaper version of Stephenson lol... similar attributes but perhaps Henry is a little tougher with pressure.
Still looks like the type of selection you make from the 3rd round onwards tho... I would've flipped it we picked Henry and GWS snagged Macrae the pick immediately after.
Still looks like the type of selection you make from the 3rd round onwards tho... I would've flipped it we picked Henry and GWS snagged Macrae the pick immediately after.
Yeap, not ready. So obvious.
When you give away your best inside mid and actually pay another club to take him and basically abandon Stevo #6 in 2017 draft.....ohhh and let’s not forget Phillips who can run all day for 3 rookies who may not even play for 2 years, it’s called covering your arse.
You can put lipstick on a pig.......
CMON the PIES.
When you give away your best inside mid and actually pay another club to take him and basically abandon Stevo #6 in 2017 draft.....ohhh and let’s not forget Phillips who can run all day for 3 rookies who may not even play for 2 years, it’s called covering your arse.
You can put lipstick on a pig.......
CMON the PIES.
Bruhn really wasn't on my radar tbh, as @wogitalia has said, scoring just 63 points when you kick 4 goals is concerning.
If really struggling for mid rookies (for example if Downie misses selection) then he would have to come into consideration but it would almost be a case of picking him as no other viable options at his price point. Hopefully someone like Lazzaro gets picked who I liked the look of more.
If really struggling for mid rookies (for example if Downie misses selection) then he would have to come into consideration but it would almost be a case of picking him as no other viable options at his price point. Hopefully someone like Lazzaro gets picked who I liked the look of more.
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You obviously don't follow Horse Being good with the ball is utterly meaningless, it will be entirely on whether he did the defensive aspects how he was told. Or at least that's the only logical answer for the majority of his selections.
Will give Horse credit on one thing though, when he plays kids he almost always gives them a couple of weeks to play their way out of the side.
2 of those, as experienced and hardened forwards crept over 60 and the other is an absolutely elite player who managed 84.
GWS problem is they move the ball methodically and painfully until they're forced into a long kick to a contest. There has been nothing in the preseason to indicate that will change, they scored some quick burst goals through stoppage dominance against Sydney but otherwise struggled immensely to score. Bruhn is going to be just about the last target up forward. I mean he just scored 63 on the back of 4 goals (of which one was a complete fluke/accident), he hasn't shown any real high possession or ability to find dangerous spaces in either game.
He might be good but I'd be genuinely surprised if he's a 65+ rookie, wouldn't shock me if a 65 was his high-range for his scoring in any game and I actually really rate him as a player but there's not many players who can score well in the role he's playing especially in a team that moves the ball like that. Even in teams that move it faster you're looking at Lonie, Farrell, Aarts and McCarthy types who as senior bodies are scraping past 60 as the best case.
What I will say is he's probably only a couple of injuries to a pretty injury prone midfield from a vastly different role which could make him a good slow burn type. 160k is a lot to pay for a bench rookie though. We've got Gulden confirmed (slightly better role and 43k cheaper) and I think we get Scott as a 2nd who has a considerably better role at 55k cheaper, so really only needing one more from a pretty big pool to push him out.
Being good with the ball is utterly meaningless, it will be entirely on whether he did the defensive aspects how he was told. Or at least that's the only logical answer for the majority of his selections.Will give Horse credit on one thing though, when he plays kids he almost always gives them a couple of weeks to play their way out of the side.
2 of those, as experienced and hardened forwards crept over 60 and the other is an absolutely elite player who managed 84.
GWS problem is they move the ball methodically and painfully until they're forced into a long kick to a contest. There has been nothing in the preseason to indicate that will change, they scored some quick burst goals through stoppage dominance against Sydney but otherwise struggled immensely to score. Bruhn is going to be just about the last target up forward. I mean he just scored 63 on the back of 4 goals (of which one was a complete fluke/accident), he hasn't shown any real high possession or ability to find dangerous spaces in either game.
He might be good but I'd be genuinely surprised if he's a 65+ rookie, wouldn't shock me if a 65 was his high-range for his scoring in any game and I actually really rate him as a player but there's not many players who can score well in the role he's playing especially in a team that moves the ball like that. Even in teams that move it faster you're looking at Lonie, Farrell, Aarts and McCarthy types who as senior bodies are scraping past 60 as the best case.
What I will say is he's probably only a couple of injuries to a pretty injury prone midfield from a vastly different role which could make him a good slow burn type. 160k is a lot to pay for a bench rookie though. We've got Gulden confirmed (slightly better role and 43k cheaper) and I think we get Scott as a 2nd who has a considerably better role at 55k cheaper, so really only needing one more from a pretty big pool to push him out.
I get where you're coming from with the role but I wouldn't say Daniel is not seasoned as a player, he's just played 3 seasons and been decent for two of them and Lloyd just sucks and plays high-half forward in a sort of strange quasi-defensive role. It's hard to score well in general in the forward line but the Aarts type of player has more of a designated pressure role in the side than Bruhn might have.
All I'm saying is given he's a highly rated junior midfielder he might have an easier time finding the ball than we might expect, once he gets going after a couple of weeks. I think he's distinctly different to the Langdon/Matt Parker/Switkowski type who was recruited specifically just to play as a pressure forward and weren't recruited for their ball winning ability. No idea how he actually scores but just not buying into the idea that he will have a totally unfriendly role or is doomed to low 50's, he might well average that bad, but with his job security I see more potential than you are seeing. I watched him play and was thoroughly impressed, he also didn't just play like a first year small forward but got himself in a number of good positions, looked well adapted to the AFL level. He fluked a goal but probably got underscored as well.
Buckley wouldn't be selecting Oliver Henry without liking something about him. I will be keen to read some more information about him tomorrow (I'm sure the sports writers will be doing their home work now).
It looks like Mihocek will play Rd1.
https://supercoachscores.com/threads/injuries-suspensions.3987/post-701368
............while Brody Mihocek is fine after a tight calf............
It looks like Mihocek will play Rd1.
https://supercoachscores.com/threads/injuries-suspensions.3987/post-701368
............while Brody Mihocek is fine after a tight calf............