Discussion SC 2021: Rookie Discussion
- Thread starter Brettthejett
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Take 2 more weeks and it's basically 200k.
Make it 75 a game and it's 210k.
Throw in a single 100 in round 3/4/5 and it's 200k if he scores ~65 the other weeks.
For mine from Daniher down there are probably a total of about half a dozen other rookies that I'd put any kind of money on to average 75 while there are 3 in the rucks.
FWIW Daniher, Impey, Dow, Campbell, Cahill, Phillips, Downie and Scott probably the only ones right now and I'd say most of them are less likely than likely.
Your key distinction is you think his role is going to be significantly better in the real season than it was in both preseason games. He played as a forward pocket, a genuine forward pocket, in both games. If he plays as a genuine high half forward he's a different prospect but I can't see him beating Greene, Green, Taranto, De Boer and Coniglio out of those spots. Greene is an AA, De Boer was very good in the role on the weekend and the first choice midfielders will rotate through there well ahead of an underdeveloped kid who has missed the best part of 2 seasons.
I really like him but his role is probably the worst possible role for fantasy purposes and he's got next to no forward craft, those guys you want to compare him with are genuine forwards in the role and still struggle to score from it. It's very hard to score in that role because you're confined in the ability to spread and roam, not a target on most forward entries and essentially have to create goals. Generally it takes elite pressure skills, which he hasn't shown, to push to a higher tier 65+ scoring in that role.
Basically assuming that one of Scott or Downie is picked for round one you're picking Bruhn at M11, for mine 160k is a lot to pay for the deepest bench spot. It's something I do if there are no rookies but outside that I just can't see the cash generation. For mine Pickett remains the best comparison for him last year barring 3 or so midfield injuries opening up a role for him in which case you can just downgrade into him as I suspect he's still going to be around 175k in a month.
Been wrong plenty of times but it's very rare that a rookie plays a role like that in the preseason and then moves up in role as the senior players missing come back in, especially when he goes and does the worst thing possible by kicking a few goals from it!
Also there is a reason that teams keep drafting mature aged genuine forwards to play these roles, it's a specialist role that is actually very difficult and being a good midfielder very rarely translates to being good at it, the skillsets are actually quite different.
FWIW I really liked what Henry showed, playing out of position against the best side in the league. He was considerably better the week before as well.
He'll be a good 3rd tall, decent below his knees and should present a lot. Long term he's a Tom Lynch type (Adelaide) and think he'll be a very useful player. Should work well off of Mihocek and will definitely prefer the 3rd defender over getting the top defenders like he did in preseason.
Still, young guy in a team that is a bit unknown after their exodus, with a couple of other targets is not a good fantasy role to me but I do think his JS is pretty solid and that he's capable of some alright scores. As I've said before though, I wouldn't be paying extra over Harrison Jones, they're as similar a pair of fantasy picks as you could find but with Rowe already a better bench option I think there's hopefully only a need/place for one and 12k is 12k
Make it 75 a game and it's 210k.
Throw in a single 100 in round 3/4/5 and it's 200k if he scores ~65 the other weeks.
For mine from Daniher down there are probably a total of about half a dozen other rookies that I'd put any kind of money on to average 75 while there are 3 in the rucks.
FWIW Daniher, Impey, Dow, Campbell, Cahill, Phillips, Downie and Scott probably the only ones right now and I'd say most of them are less likely than likely.
Your key distinction is you think his role is going to be significantly better in the real season than it was in both preseason games. He played as a forward pocket, a genuine forward pocket, in both games. If he plays as a genuine high half forward he's a different prospect but I can't see him beating Greene, Green, Taranto, De Boer and Coniglio out of those spots. Greene is an AA, De Boer was very good in the role on the weekend and the first choice midfielders will rotate through there well ahead of an underdeveloped kid who has missed the best part of 2 seasons.
I really like him but his role is probably the worst possible role for fantasy purposes and he's got next to no forward craft, those guys you want to compare him with are genuine forwards in the role and still struggle to score from it. It's very hard to score in that role because you're confined in the ability to spread and roam, not a target on most forward entries and essentially have to create goals. Generally it takes elite pressure skills, which he hasn't shown, to push to a higher tier 65+ scoring in that role.
Basically assuming that one of Scott or Downie is picked for round one you're picking Bruhn at M11, for mine 160k is a lot to pay for the deepest bench spot. It's something I do if there are no rookies but outside that I just can't see the cash generation. For mine Pickett remains the best comparison for him last year barring 3 or so midfield injuries opening up a role for him in which case you can just downgrade into him as I suspect he's still going to be around 175k in a month.
Been wrong plenty of times but it's very rare that a rookie plays a role like that in the preseason and then moves up in role as the senior players missing come back in, especially when he goes and does the worst thing possible by kicking a few goals from it!
Also there is a reason that teams keep drafting mature aged genuine forwards to play these roles, it's a specialist role that is actually very difficult and being a good midfielder very rarely translates to being good at it, the skillsets are actually quite different.
FWIW I really liked what Henry showed, playing out of position against the best side in the league. He was considerably better the week before as well.
He'll be a good 3rd tall, decent below his knees and should present a lot. Long term he's a Tom Lynch type (Adelaide) and think he'll be a very useful player. Should work well off of Mihocek and will definitely prefer the 3rd defender over getting the top defenders like he did in preseason.
Still, young guy in a team that is a bit unknown after their exodus, with a couple of other targets is not a good fantasy role to me but I do think his JS is pretty solid and that he's capable of some alright scores. As I've said before though, I wouldn't be paying extra over Harrison Jones, they're as similar a pair of fantasy picks as you could find but with Rowe already a better bench option I think there's hopefully only a need/place for one and 12k is 12k
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I meant if both were fit and available - as they'd be our 2nd and 3rd "tall" forwards and Henry probably wouldn't get a look in.
It's definitely the x-factor though - he has good hands and a good leap, but is also agile at ground level and has some tricks (including the ability to kick a goal in traffic on either side of the body).
I'm excited to see how he goes but it could go either way under the big lights on Friday night.
It's definitely the x-factor though - he has good hands and a good leap, but is also agile at ground level and has some tricks (including the ability to kick a goal in traffic on either side of the body).
I'm excited to see how he goes but it could go either way under the big lights on Friday night.
Not a Bomber's fan but personally I like him in both areas. Saad is replaced by Hind. Heppell is essentially displacing one of Redman/Gleeson/Guelfi from their final team last year and I think that Cahill is displacing another.
Scoring wise I think he's a solid 60 bet with potential as high as 80 but probably closer to 70 as the strong outcome. Will really depend how comfortable he can get balancing the attack and defense which is always the hardest thing for young half backs and the health of Hind and Heppell who will be ahead of him. He's in a comparable position to guys like Long, Noble, O'Connor, Hibberd or Hardwick last year who were all around 70 as the 4th or so rebounder for their sides which is a pretty consistent range. At a 70 average he's a 190k in 10 weeks type.
Job security I think is good, you don't generally take a kid who looks pretty decent in one role and train them to play a completely different role without a pretty clear game plan for the reason and a firm belief they're going to be very good in the role long term and he definitely has the ability to be a good ball user off half back.
Ultimately think he's a borderline rookie choice just because of his price and that there is still uncertainty how he scores and the JS which makes cheaper guys come into play when facing similar questions. If Warner is picked I think he's got more upside but reduced JS with a stronger role. I think Impey is probably worth the premium. Daniher is definitely worth the premium. Rowe/Jones/Henry are probably worth the discount as bench options. Brockman likewise. Fullarton probably needed if going the 2 rookie rucks but probably not as strong in either area otherwise.
Edit: Should add that I really like him as a on-field choice though if you are paying for him and several of the names above are bench only choices to me.
Scoring wise I think he's a solid 60 bet with potential as high as 80 but probably closer to 70 as the strong outcome. Will really depend how comfortable he can get balancing the attack and defense which is always the hardest thing for young half backs and the health of Hind and Heppell who will be ahead of him. He's in a comparable position to guys like Long, Noble, O'Connor, Hibberd or Hardwick last year who were all around 70 as the 4th or so rebounder for their sides which is a pretty consistent range. At a 70 average he's a 190k in 10 weeks type.
Job security I think is good, you don't generally take a kid who looks pretty decent in one role and train them to play a completely different role without a pretty clear game plan for the reason and a firm belief they're going to be very good in the role long term and he definitely has the ability to be a good ball user off half back.
Ultimately think he's a borderline rookie choice just because of his price and that there is still uncertainty how he scores and the JS which makes cheaper guys come into play when facing similar questions. If Warner is picked I think he's got more upside but reduced JS with a stronger role. I think Impey is probably worth the premium. Daniher is definitely worth the premium. Rowe/Jones/Henry are probably worth the discount as bench options. Brockman likewise. Fullarton probably needed if going the 2 rookie rucks but probably not as strong in either area otherwise.
Edit: Should add that I really like him as a on-field choice though if you are paying for him and several of the names above are bench only choices to me.
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Take 2 more weeks and it's basically 200k.
Make it 75 a game and it's 210k.
Throw in a single 100 in round 3/4/5 and it's 200k if he scores ~65 the other weeks.
For mine from Daniher down there are probably a total of about half a dozen other rookies that I'd put any kind of money on to average 75 while there are 3 in the rucks.
FWIW Daniher, Impey, Dow, Campbell, Cahill, Phillips, Downie and Scott probably the only ones right now and I'd say most of them are less likely than likely.
Your key distinction is you think his role is going to be significantly better in the real season than it was in both preseason games. He played as a forward pocket, a genuine forward pocket, in both games. If he plays as a genuine high half forward he's a different prospect but I can't see him beating Greene, Green, Taranto, De Boer and Coniglio out of those spots. Greene is an AA, De Boer was very good in the role on the weekend and the first choice midfielders will rotate through there well ahead of an underdeveloped kid who has missed the best part of 2 seasons.
I really like him but his role is probably the worst possible role for fantasy purposes and he's got next to no forward craft, those guys you want to compare him with are genuine forwards in the role and still struggle to score from it. It's very hard to score in that role because you're confined in the ability to spread and roam, not a target on most forward entries and essentially have to create goals. Generally it takes elite pressure skills, which he hasn't shown, to push to a higher tier 65+ scoring in that role.
Basically assuming that one of Scott or Downie is picked for round one you're picking Bruhn at M11, for mine 160k is a lot to pay for the deepest bench spot. It's something I do if there are no rookies but outside that I just can't see the cash generation. For mine Pickett remains the best comparison for him last year barring 3 or so midfield injuries opening up a role for him in which case you can just downgrade into him as I suspect he's still going to be around 175k in a month.
Been wrong plenty of times but it's very rare that a rookie plays a role like that in the preseason and then moves up in role as the senior players missing come back in, especially when he goes and does the worst thing possible by kicking a few goals from it!
Also there is a reason that teams keep drafting mature aged genuine forwards to play these roles, it's a specialist role that is actually very difficult and being a good midfielder very rarely translates to being good at it, the skillsets are actually quite different.
FWIW I really liked what Henry showed, playing out of position against the best side in the league. He was considerably better the week before as well.
He'll be a good 3rd tall, decent below his knees and should present a lot. Long term he's a Tom Lynch type (Adelaide) and think he'll be a very useful player. Should work well off of Mihocek and will definitely prefer the 3rd defender over getting the top defenders like he did in preseason.
Still, young guy in a team that is a bit unknown after their exodus, with a couple of other targets is not a good fantasy role to me but I do think his JS is pretty solid and that he's capable of some alright scores. As I've said before though, I wouldn't be paying extra over Harrison Jones, they're as similar a pair of fantasy picks as you could find but with Rowe already a better bench option I think there's hopefully only a need/place for one and 12k is 12k
Make it 75 a game and it's 210k.
Throw in a single 100 in round 3/4/5 and it's 200k if he scores ~65 the other weeks.
For mine from Daniher down there are probably a total of about half a dozen other rookies that I'd put any kind of money on to average 75 while there are 3 in the rucks.
FWIW Daniher, Impey, Dow, Campbell, Cahill, Phillips, Downie and Scott probably the only ones right now and I'd say most of them are less likely than likely.
Your key distinction is you think his role is going to be significantly better in the real season than it was in both preseason games. He played as a forward pocket, a genuine forward pocket, in both games. If he plays as a genuine high half forward he's a different prospect but I can't see him beating Greene, Green, Taranto, De Boer and Coniglio out of those spots. Greene is an AA, De Boer was very good in the role on the weekend and the first choice midfielders will rotate through there well ahead of an underdeveloped kid who has missed the best part of 2 seasons.
I really like him but his role is probably the worst possible role for fantasy purposes and he's got next to no forward craft, those guys you want to compare him with are genuine forwards in the role and still struggle to score from it. It's very hard to score in that role because you're confined in the ability to spread and roam, not a target on most forward entries and essentially have to create goals. Generally it takes elite pressure skills, which he hasn't shown, to push to a higher tier 65+ scoring in that role.
Basically assuming that one of Scott or Downie is picked for round one you're picking Bruhn at M11, for mine 160k is a lot to pay for the deepest bench spot. It's something I do if there are no rookies but outside that I just can't see the cash generation. For mine Pickett remains the best comparison for him last year barring 3 or so midfield injuries opening up a role for him in which case you can just downgrade into him as I suspect he's still going to be around 175k in a month.
Been wrong plenty of times but it's very rare that a rookie plays a role like that in the preseason and then moves up in role as the senior players missing come back in, especially when he goes and does the worst thing possible by kicking a few goals from it!
Also there is a reason that teams keep drafting mature aged genuine forwards to play these roles, it's a specialist role that is actually very difficult and being a good midfielder very rarely translates to being good at it, the skillsets are actually quite different.
FWIW I really liked what Henry showed, playing out of position against the best side in the league. He was considerably better the week before as well.
He'll be a good 3rd tall, decent below his knees and should present a lot. Long term he's a Tom Lynch type (Adelaide) and think he'll be a very useful player. Should work well off of Mihocek and will definitely prefer the 3rd defender over getting the top defenders like he did in preseason.
Still, young guy in a team that is a bit unknown after their exodus, with a couple of other targets is not a good fantasy role to me but I do think his JS is pretty solid and that he's capable of some alright scores. As I've said before though, I wouldn't be paying extra over Harrison Jones, they're as similar a pair of fantasy picks as you could find but with Rowe already a better bench option I think there's hopefully only a need/place for one and 12k is 12k
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With Murry now looking like he's pushing uphill to make it for round 1 what are people's thoughts on going with Briggs at D8 as a handcuff for Flynn in a Gawfleek or Grufleek lineup?
Briggs would be a pretty handy donut for the first 5 rounds, with the Giants earliest game in that span being 4:35pm Saturday, and it doesn't look like there are many DEF rookies on the radar at this point in time.
Briggs would be a pretty handy donut for the first 5 rounds, with the Giants earliest game in that span being 4:35pm Saturday, and it doesn't look like there are many DEF rookies on the radar at this point in time.
The first goal was a De Boer tackle that he stole the advantage on after every Swan had stopped and ran into an open goal. The second was Tom Green handballing to him standing on his own after he'd bullied a couple of Swans in a contest. The 3rd was an accident that bounced 20 odd metres and the 4th was a scrambled kick where it fell to his advantage. Outside the accidental goal that required an AFL leg to be able to kick the other 3 goals are all goals that you'd expect the average amateur reserves footballer to take and kick.
Didn't show any running patterns, lead craft, angles, roving of forward packs, freak finishing skills or really anything to indicate that the goals weren't more Johnny on the spot goals than anything else. Not trying to diminish the achievement at all, sometimes being in the right spot is as good as anything else, but he didn't demonstrate anything to me as far as it being a result of his actions or craft.
Like the look of him, just not for fantasy purposes and he should improve as the season goes on. I have very little doubt that he'll play almost zero midfield time this season barring significant injuries and that it would take similar for him to get a good fantasy role at HF. He's just not physically ready for either role from everything I've seen and read. He's going to play AFL in a bad role because it will help develop him but unless the Giants aren't trying to win they're going to play their elite midfielders in the middle.
Didn't show any running patterns, lead craft, angles, roving of forward packs, freak finishing skills or really anything to indicate that the goals weren't more Johnny on the spot goals than anything else. Not trying to diminish the achievement at all, sometimes being in the right spot is as good as anything else, but he didn't demonstrate anything to me as far as it being a result of his actions or craft.
Like the look of him, just not for fantasy purposes and he should improve as the season goes on. I have very little doubt that he'll play almost zero midfield time this season barring significant injuries and that it would take similar for him to get a good fantasy role at HF. He's just not physically ready for either role from everything I've seen and read. He's going to play AFL in a bad role because it will help develop him but unless the Giants aren't trying to win they're going to play their elite midfielders in the middle.
..............FWIW I really liked what Henry showed, playing out of position against the best side in the league. He was considerably better the week before as well.
He'll be a good 3rd tall, decent below his knees and should present a lot. Long term he's a Tom Lynch type (Adelaide) and think he'll be a very useful player. Should work well off of Mihocek and will definitely prefer the 3rd defender over getting the top defenders like he did in preseason.
Still, young guy in a team that is a bit unknown after their exodus, with a couple of other targets is not a good fantasy role to me but I do think his JS is pretty solid and that he's capable of some alright scores. As I've said before though, I wouldn't be paying extra over Harrison Jones, they're as similar a pair of fantasy picks as you could find but with Rowe already a better bench option I think there's hopefully only a need/place for one and 12k is 12k
He'll be a good 3rd tall, decent below his knees and should present a lot. Long term he's a Tom Lynch type (Adelaide) and think he'll be a very useful player. Should work well off of Mihocek and will definitely prefer the 3rd defender over getting the top defenders like he did in preseason.
Still, young guy in a team that is a bit unknown after their exodus, with a couple of other targets is not a good fantasy role to me but I do think his JS is pretty solid and that he's capable of some alright scores. As I've said before though, I wouldn't be paying extra over Harrison Jones, they're as similar a pair of fantasy picks as you could find but with Rowe already a better bench option I think there's hopefully only a need/place for one and 12k is 12k
Agree that selecting Harrison Jones is 12K cheaper, good if money is tight, but I am curious why else you think Jones would be the better pick. My understanding is that 20yo Jones is 194cm and expected to play key forward role, which is generally not very good for SC points. Henry being 186cm, I would think would more likely score higher SC points, so I rate him ahead of Jones.
What ya reckon?
Henry looks bigger than that and played as a KPF. Both are playing as the 3rd tall for mine. Hooker and Wright is probably better protection than an underdone Mihocek and Cox, I think the two teams are pretty even in talent.
Basically see both in the same role, in similar sides with similar JS and scoring potential, Jones has flashed more in preseason, Henry had a harder scenario (his bodyguards were missing). Ultimately though if all else feels equal, cheaper is better
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I'm not sure those mature pressure forwards you've mentioned are playing the same role as Stephenson, Jack Higgins, Zach Merrett, Petrevski-Seton and Butters were in their first season, or were scoring as well early on. All these players, including Bruhn, played time up forward as junior players.
You're saying you like the look of him but that everything he did was a fluke and that he didn't display any forward craft, I think that's a bit contradictory. If you like him what was it that he showed you if not his ability to play forward?
He had one flukey goal but of the other three, two were getting in a good crumbing position and gathering the ball clearly and finishing, both were opportunistic, but they were not flukey. I don't think they were gimme goals either. The other one was a goal from following a lead up mark. He also tackled Josh Kennedy, dispossessed him and set up Greene for a goal. Even the flukey goal saw him get in the perfect position at the bottom of a contest and actually show a big leg (even if it was a fluke). So yes a lead up mark converted to a goal, two opportunistic goals which he crumbed cleanly and one flukey goal where he got possession by crumbing directly from a marking contest is a display of forward craft.
I was making a joke re the Giants mids playing at half-forward and him getting mid time. They're obviously not all going to be playing half-forward at the same time, I'd imaging that any given time one of Taranto, Green, Cogs, Hopper and Jkelly will be on the bench and JKelly will often be on a wing. Cogs often plays forward pocket as a target when he goes forward as well, rather than as a flanker.
You're saying you like the look of him but that everything he did was a fluke and that he didn't display any forward craft, I think that's a bit contradictory. If you like him what was it that he showed you if not his ability to play forward?
He had one flukey goal but of the other three, two were getting in a good crumbing position and gathering the ball clearly and finishing, both were opportunistic, but they were not flukey. I don't think they were gimme goals either. The other one was a goal from following a lead up mark. He also tackled Josh Kennedy, dispossessed him and set up Greene for a goal. Even the flukey goal saw him get in the perfect position at the bottom of a contest and actually show a big leg (even if it was a fluke). So yes a lead up mark converted to a goal, two opportunistic goals which he crumbed cleanly and one flukey goal where he got possession by crumbing directly from a marking contest is a display of forward craft.
I was making a joke re the Giants mids playing at half-forward and him getting mid time. They're obviously not all going to be playing half-forward at the same time, I'd imaging that any given time one of Taranto, Green, Cogs, Hopper and Jkelly will be on the bench and JKelly will often be on a wing. Cogs often plays forward pocket as a target when he goes forward as well, rather than as a flanker.
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I think a lot of this is getting away from what I was originally trying to say. I'm not confident he will average above 60 at all (I'm less than 50% confident that he would), I'm just saying I don't feel like he is doomed to average high 40's or low 50's to start the season and that his job security looks better than Downie or Brockman with Wingard to return soon. so you could pick a guy who with good job security with more upside than I think is currently being advertised. If we had more rookies I felt had good js then I would not look at him at all.
I think midfielders tend to have an easier time finding the ball no matter where on the ground they play than everyone else except specialist flankers when they're forward or specialist half-backs when they're at the back. They know how to hunt the ball. I think they have an easier time finding the ball when playing forward than small forwards do, even if they were not exclusively small forwards as juniors. I think that could help him a bit in that role.
I think midfielders tend to have an easier time finding the ball no matter where on the ground they play than everyone else except specialist flankers when they're forward or specialist half-backs when they're at the back. They know how to hunt the ball. I think they have an easier time finding the ball when playing forward than small forwards do, even if they were not exclusively small forwards as juniors. I think that could help him a bit in that role.
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KFC SuperCoach AFL Round 1 preview: How to prepare for team selection, debuts
The best-laid KFC SuperCoach plans can go awry in Round 1.
Rolling lockout can be both a friend and enemy of KFC SuperCoach teams, especially when unlimited trades are in play.
Coaches will have the added challenge of teams being announced the night before games this season, as was the case last year.
That could have a significant impact on the final make-up of KFC SuperCoach teams with popular cheapies such as Lachie Jones, Tom Highmore and Jacob Wehr playing on Sunday in Round 1.
We’ve taken a look at the likely scenarios and the bail outs which could save your team if your plans go amiss during the first rolling lockout of 2021.
Players are locked out as soon as their team’s match starts, although the rolling lockout means you can still manoeuvre your team as late as Sunday evening.
Every borderline rookie is assessed below, with our thoughts on how to pivot your team if selection goes against you.
https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/...s/news-story/d0ebc854c6492c765f86157952a4a669
The best-laid KFC SuperCoach plans can go awry in Round 1.
Rolling lockout can be both a friend and enemy of KFC SuperCoach teams, especially when unlimited trades are in play.
Coaches will have the added challenge of teams being announced the night before games this season, as was the case last year.
That could have a significant impact on the final make-up of KFC SuperCoach teams with popular cheapies such as Lachie Jones, Tom Highmore and Jacob Wehr playing on Sunday in Round 1.
We’ve taken a look at the likely scenarios and the bail outs which could save your team if your plans go amiss during the first rolling lockout of 2021.
Players are locked out as soon as their team’s match starts, although the rolling lockout means you can still manoeuvre your team as late as Sunday evening.
Every borderline rookie is assessed below, with our thoughts on how to pivot your team if selection goes against you.
https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/...s/news-story/d0ebc854c6492c765f86157952a4a669
