Analysis 2021: The Lachie Neale Conundrum

[Rumbler]

Firstly, what a fantastic dissection @Rowsus ! Thanks heaps!

It's funny how a couple of bad games completely changes the perception of a world class player. Imagine saying before the season started that "I'm gonna trade Neale after round 2" !!

I wasn't planning on trading him before reading Rows post...and even after reading his post I'm still not going to be trading him.
I simply don't trade out prems unless they've had a major injury...or a complete role change. In this case, it's neither.
Also, for me...trying to say "yeah I'll trade him back in after round 6, 7 or 8" is too risky because who knows what other carnage may happen during now and then?!

If he drops in price down to 500k or less or whatever then so be it. Will take it on the chin.
I'll back to him to deal with the tag and come through back to his best soon. This is Neale we're talking about.
The opposition are in for a nasty surprise if they think they have him figured out.

p.s. I already have Oliver!

 

[Impromptu]

Thanks @Rowsus for the detailed analysis but FYI the tweet below (probably nothing and at least first game of the round):

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1376786605550096384

 

[Bermi]

Very interesting Rowsus.

I like what you said "..........If you value and horde your trades, you won't (trade out Neale).........", hmmm, that's pretty much reinforces my thoughts not to trade Neale out. This year I planned not to be too trade happy.

It's not the money differences that I am concerned about keeping Neale, it's things like what @Impromptu posted above and the article below, that concerns me. Since I believe Neale will be a top 8 Mid, then the money is not an issue to me.

Collingwood to potentially target Lachie Neale with tag as Brodie Grundy and Jordan De Goey miss training
Shayne Hope & staff writersAAP
Mon, 29 March 2021

.........Brisbane midfielder Lachie Neale could find himself heavily tagged for a second straight week as AFL rivals Collingwood weigh up whether to send renowned stopper Levi Greenwood to the Brownlow medallist.

The Magpies’ possible move comes after Geelong enjoyed success in using Mark O’Connor in a tagging role on Neale on Friday night........

.........“We know Levi has been a really good stopper for us in the past, so that’s a consideration for us,” Collingwood coach Nathan Buckley said on Monday.

“Neale’s a quality player, he doesn’t often put two bad ones together.

“It probably shows you how difficult it is as an elite player in the competition to continually back up.

“It’s not as if coaches are sitting on their hands ignoring the quality of players in the opposition, so he’s definitely someone that we’ll consider, but they (Brisbane) happen to have a few, like most sides do.

“The job that O’Connor did was a strong performance but I think that there’s also a team element to that as well in what Geelong were able to do to stifle Brisbane as a whole.”...........


Collingwood to potentially target Lachie Neale with tag as Brodie Grundy and Jordan De Goey miss training | The West Australian

 

[incog43]

Is this the real lachie neale though? He does not pass the eye test anymore than cripps. For that matter, neither does brisbane. Number one ruck out injured as well. Gone for me, but I hope those that hold get rewarded soon!

Great post Rowsus.

 

[WindyHillWizard]

@Rowsus - after completing this amazing analysis, what is your view of how much team success plays a role?

My thinking is that if you are trading Neale, you are also probably thinking that Brisbane won't be (at least) a Top 4 side like many of us thought, as its hard to see the Lions doing well without a fit and firing Neale.

If the Lions don't even make the 8, I can see a major contributing factor being teams putting alot of attention into Neale.

 

[Lgndhen23]

If greenwood is named for the pies this week (which is unlikely, but possible)

i would definately get rid of neale, another low score would just destroy his price

 

[Drew]

Thanks Rowsus, top quality analysis as usual mate!

I leaning towards trading him out (for Bradshaw) I think you can’t under estimate the value of having that cash up your sleeve. Also, once he’s out I’m not sure you should overthink the “trade back in“ scenario, he just becomes another upgrade prospect and I think you should view the two things in isolation.

 

[Philzsay]

If greenwood is named for the pies this week (which is unlikely, but possible)

i would definately get rid of neale, another low score would just destroy his price

I'm at the same point, if Greenwood is named I will probably dump him. Probably hold if no Greenwood.

 

[donnybuang]

If he's got a back injury, he's cactus. No one would let that cat out of the bag though.

 

[Ricky Bobby]

Thanks @Rowsus for the detailed analysis but FYI the tweet below (probably nothing and at least first game of the round):

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1376786605550096384

We may get lucky and he misses a week... delays the price change, skips the Greenwood tag and gives him an extra week to overcome his “soreness”... also gives us another weeks to assess options.

 

[kennychao]

some solid stats / figures for us to think over


Here’s something that I just considered. Could we say $100k (made from downgrading) Neale at the beginning of the season (where less cash / salary cap is available) is the same as $100k say after R10 when everyone has a significantly higher cap (due to rookies making $ and being cashed in)? % wise of the cap it’s definitely higher in the first 3-4 rounds when no additional value has been achieved

By virtue of free-ing up additional salary cap earlier in the season, should that available cap be weighed heavier, as it assists with upgrading otherlines?

Or perhaps this has been accounted for in analysis above and I just didn’t read through it properly

 

[Shaunpro1]

We may get lucky and he misses a week... delays the price change, skips the Greenwood tag and gives him an extra week to overcome his “soreness”... also gives us another weeks to assess options.

No way you can bench 720K, if he's out it confirms he has to go.

 

[Ricky Bobby]

No way you can bench 720K, if he's out it confirms he has to go.

I think it depends on your situation. I would prioritise jumping on 2 “must have” rookies this week over trading out Neale, especially if he is not going to drop in price until next week. It’s really no different to benching Fyfe for 1 week due to concussion.

 

[Shaunpro1]

I think it depends on your situation. I would prioritise jumping on 2 “must have” rookies this week over trading out Neale, especially if he is not going to drop in price until next week. It’s really no different to benching Fyfe for 1 week due to concussion.

There's a big difference for mine, you can do alot with 720K, if you field a rookie for a 50 whilst everyone else trades and utilities the freed up money elsewhere you could easily end up 150 points down and the freefall of Neale is still to come, no guarantee a back issue is fixed in a week either.

 

[Ricky Bobby]

There's a big difference for mine, you can do alot with 720K, if you field a rookie for a 50 whilst everyone else trades and utilities the freed up money elsewhere you could easily end up 150 points down and the freefall of Neale is still to come, no guarantee a back issue is fixed in a week either.

I take your point, but in my example I am grabbing 2 rookies (assuming they are must haves) and then waiting 1 week to trade out Neale before his first price drop. One approach focuses on points on ground for 1 week, and the other focuses on maximising cash growth.

 

[Beijing_Sting]

Didn't he get a hit on the hip in the last quarter and stayed off for about 5 minutes getting treatment?

Also, did I see somewhere that he became a dad yesterday?

Am I imagining things?

 

[Beijing_Sting]

Oh... I misread... Announced that they were pregnant

 

[Shaunpro1]

I take your point, but in my example I am grabbing 2 rookies (assuming they are must haves) and then waiting 1 week to trade out Neale before his first price drop. One approach focuses on points on ground for 1 week, and the other focuses on maximising cash growth.

There's always cash growth that arises, unless youve missed a Highmore,Jordon,Warner,Campbell,Gulden it's really not worth the likely loss in points.

 

[randomcliche]

Thanks Also, once he’s out I’m not sure you should overthink the “trade back in“ scenario, he just becomes another upgrade prospect and I think you should view the two things in isolation.

This is correct. Independent events. Or at least you have to factor in purchasing Oliver later, rather than downgrading to get a season like-for-like comparison. But that does get messy.

Fwiw I don't own and would trade if I had the necessary rookies, and no injuries or Cripps Esk issues.

 

[Ricky Bobby]

There's always cash growth that arises, unless youve missed a Highmore,Jordon,Warner,Campbell,Gulden it's really not worth the likely loss in points.

Just wanted to thank you for this discussion. You raised some good points which have helped me reconsider my trades for this week and I think I now have a better plan based on your insights