Analysis 2021: The Lachie Neale Conundrum

[Ricky Bobby]

non Neale owner but been following this thread with interest.

So after one price drop and a high BE do people still hold and home his form returns quickly or trade in Round 4 ?

I traded him out this week, but it was massively stressful watching him rack up the points in the first half. Your question is a good one and I think this is a fascinating scenario .... Neale is obviously underdone, but not bad enough to drop for a week or two. His price is dropping like a stone, but he looks like he could bust out a 150+ at any time. The question is, when will he do it? My guess it that it could be some time In the next 4 games (pure guess, so who really knows) but if he can average around 90-100 for the next few rounds then it’s not too bad for owners and then they will be well placed when he starts to run games out a bit better. Until then, I will be holding my breath each time he plays and hoping I can pick him up under $550k before he gets on a roll.

 

[Herbie66]

For me it is a hold as that is the only chance I have of catching up. I just have to hope that 160+ score is around the corner and I can get the advantage of that score before others start grabbing him at a deflated price. Hopefully the saved trade, or two trades for those who trade him out then in again, work for me later in the season. If he continues to score sub 90, so be it!!

He certainly isn't going to be a easy trade in target for people the traditional way by Round 6.

Walker to Neale could be one way.

Maybe Gulden to Neale with change will be another.

My TV screen is not wide enough to see whether he is rotating off HB or not.

I seem to get Neale , Zorko & McCarthy all mixed up , they are definitely mixing up their midfield setup a lot this season.

I wonder if it is a deliberate strategy though to get more players into the midfield mix.

Reasonable break before the Bulldogs game so it might freshen him up enough.

Interesting he didn't seem to have any ice on his back/hip after the game so might just be soreness.

 

[Herbie66]

I traded him out this week, but it was massively stressful watching him rack up the points in the first half. Your question is a good one and I think this is a fascinating scenario .... Neale is obviously underdone, but not bad enough to drop for a week or two. His price is dropping like a stone, but he looks like he could bust out a 150+ at any time. The question is, when will he do it? My guess it that it could be some time In the next 4 games (pure guess, so who really knows) but if he can average around 90-100 for the next few rounds then it’s not too bad for owners and then they will be well placed when he starts to run games out a bit better. Until then, I will be holding my breath each time he plays and hoping I can pick him up under $550k before he gets on a roll.

I think if people didn't trade him out before tonight's game what has changed for them to do it before Round 4 ?

Be interesting to see their CBA mix from last season to the first 3 rounds , seems to be they are running more through the middle , Bailey & McCarthy mainly , but that could be because Berry is missing as well.

Could be case of Fagan implementing a different midfield strategy to share the load more evenly.

Be interesting though if he gets to $ 550k he is probably averaging 90ish so a big decision to actually bring him in or are their other alternatives similarly priced scoring better ?

 

[Shaunpro1]

Why the hell did he seem to go forward for 50% of the second half? Did absolutely nothing up there

 

[Shannon]

 

[Diabolical]

Why the hell did he seem to go forward for 50% of the second half? Did absolutely nothing up there

Yet his team that was trailing at half time got up and won ... so selfish for the team to come first!

 

[Shaunpro1]

Yet his team that was trailing at half time got up and won ... so selfish for the team to come first!

Youd think youd win more comfortably if your best player who just dominated a whole half is in the midfield.

 

[Diabolical]

Youd think youd win more comfortably if your best player who just dominated a whole half is in the midfield.

I was being facetious. However, I doubt they would have put him forward just for the fun of it. He is obviously not quite right and better resting him forward for the greater team good, than on the bench.

 

[wogitalia]

Was an interesting game, for the first half it was a very high stoppage (for this season at least) game and Lachie (and Grundy) were both dominant scorers.

2nd half was a very low stoppage (even by this season) half and Grundy and Neale both faded significantly out of the game.

Lachie is struggling to cover the ground, last year I basically never saw him walking, this year he's walking a lot, not making repeat contests and not getting into space for leading marks or presenting as a handball option nearly as much. Everything about how he's playing says he's underdone to me after being at peak fitness the past two years.

 

[Professor]

Was an interesting game, for the first half it was a very high stoppage (for this season at least) game and Lachie (and Grundy) were both dominant scorers.

2nd half was a very low stoppage (even by this season) half and Grundy and Neale both faded significantly out of the game.

Lachie is struggling to cover the ground, last year I basically never saw him walking, this year he's walking a lot, not making repeat contests and not getting into space for leading marks or presenting as a handball option nearly as much. Everything about how he's playing says he's underdone to me after being at peak fitness the past two years.

He's on the same diet as Cripps, both struggling to cover the ground atm.

 

[Professor]

Gets a 9 day break, hopefully get Jarrod Berry back for support in the midfield, then face the magnificent 7, don't ask me to name them. 😆

 

[Baglimit]

Was an interesting game, for the first half it was a very high stoppage (for this season at least) game and Lachie (and Grundy) were both dominant scorers.

2nd half was a very low stoppage (even by this season) half and Grundy and Neale both faded significantly out of the game.

Lachie is struggling to cover the ground, last year I basically never saw him walking, this year he's walking a lot, not making repeat contests and not getting into space for leading marks or presenting as a handball option nearly as much. Everything about how he's playing says he's underdone to me after being at peak fitness the past two years.

He is way underdone, seems needle wears off at half time. Stamina/tog seems to be the play this year

 

[wogitalia]

He is way underdone, seems needle wears off at half time. Stamina/tog seems to be the play this year

To be fair the last two weeks he's done nothing in the first before managing to salvage a score with big last quarters.

 

[Baglimit]

To be fair the last two weeks he's done nothing in the first before managing to salvage a score with big last quarters.

Messing with the medicine, never ends well.

 

[wogitalia]

Messing with the medicine, never ends well.

Or he's about to find balance in the force?

To me the biggest standout is how stoppage based he seems to be this year, last year he went to another level on the back of his spread but he seems to be another suffering from the reduced stoppages and that's combining with his reduced spread to create disaster.

 

[Baglimit]

Or he's about to find balance in the force?

To me the biggest standout is how stoppage based he seems to be this year, last year he went to another level on the back of his spread but he seems to be another suffering from the reduced stoppages and that's combining with his reduced spread to create disaster.

Yes, the game he is playing seems to be well off the pace this year. Mitchell came out last couple of days and said “ i just had no power in my legs last season” coming off a broken leg. Neale is clearly not fit at this stage of the season and is lacking the power for whatever reason.

 

[Gruffles]

He's on the same diet as Cripps, both struggling to cover the ground atm.

Bacon & eggs for breakfast and a meat pie for lunch? That's the eating habits of champions!

I didn't watch the second half but checked FF SC score at half time, saw Neale was on 70 and fell asleep early.
In my dream Lachie was laughing at me for trading him out. He then preceded to mock me over how I was ever going to be able to trade him back in!
Jokes on you Lachie, I woke up and you faded in the 2nd...

 

[Philzsay]

non Neale owner but been following this thread with interest.

So after one price drop and a high BE do people still hold and hope his form returns quickly or trade out in Round 4 ?

May be my rigid way of thinking but it was a 'trade or keep for the year' decision before first price changes. Now that I decided to save the trade and ride him out, I will indeed ride him out.

Interestingly a lot of commentary after that second half is about him not being fully fit. Well an unfit person managed to bang out a 89. I'll take that over a M9 rookie score.

Compare it to Fyfe. I didn't even hesitate to keep despite missing this week. So from a scoring perspective holding Neale is not too different. Not ideal, but you can't cover every issue over the year ideally.

Yes I agree Neale has been a very poor choice in terms of value for money, and there is a potential opportunity loss if I selected or traded elsewhere.

For mine the decision has now been made and the main advantage I so far have received was to save a trade. To trade him now would rip away that advantage. It's going to be a long season, particularly after last years events and the evident change in game style. I just got to hope I take full advantage of that trade saved later in the year.

 

[GrainFedBeef]

hope ur right, but I think he is struggling to run out a full game.

Seemed to play forward a lot, given he wasn't getting any attention, can only assume he is not 100% fit, although looked 70%. There didn't seem any obvious back issue. Had a couple of running shots on goal that he normally would have achieved, could easily have been a 110-115 game.

The only concern is if there is some niggling injury that is holding him back from fitness. Lions tweet above suggests he wasn't perfect, expect he comes good within the next few games. If I still had him, would be a hold now, same as Cripps.

Think if you held him then you hold now, $80k of $150k damage is done. For those that traded, question do you wait for one or two good games before bringing him back. Only a massive game with a low BE would see me go after one game I expect.

 

[Juzzo]

May be my rigid way of thinking but it was a 'trade or keep for the year' decision before first price changes. Now that I decided to save the trade and ride him out, I will indeed ride him out.

Interestingly a lot of commentary after that second half is about him not being fully fit. Well an unfit person managed to bang out a 89. I'll take that over a M9 rookie score.

Compare it to Fyfe. I didn't even hesitate to keep despite missing this week. So from a scoring perspective holding Neale is not too different. Not ideal, but you can't cover every issue over the year ideally.

Yes I agree Neale has been a very poor choice in terms of value for money, and there is a potential opportunity loss if I selected or traded elsewhere.

For mine the decision has now been made and the main advantage I so far have received was to save a trade. To trade him now would rip away that advantage. It's going to be a long season, particularly after last years events and the evident change in game style. I just got to hope I take full advantage of that trade saved later in the year.

Don't worry mate, when he gets back to QLD, the warm weather will heal him quickly. He'll be pumping out 140s before we know it. Let's just hope this "soreness" goes away fast. Maybe rose coloured glasses, but I could have been a lot more disappointed with Lachie last night.