Analysis 2021: The Lachie Neale Conundrum

[Bermi]

Had I known this much before the game, I would have traded him (to Lloyd).
Having held him, I will continue to hold him, until we see what fork in the road he takes.

That what was bugging me so much, we didn't have any informed info about the severity of his injury, now knowing it is a bit late. The fact that he played, indicated to me that his injury couldn't be that bad, it's not like it's a finals game. I am keeping him and hope he heals soon, very soon.

 

[elzorko16]

That what was bugging me so much, we didn't have any informed info about the severity of his injury. now knowing it is a bit late. The fact that he played, indicated to me that his injury couldn't be that bad, it's not like it's a finals game. I am keeping him and hope he heals soon, very soon.

I hope he heals at about $550,000

 

[freowho]

Sounds like he is not required this year, even as a cheap trade in. Brissy will nurse him through to finals.

 

[Bermi]

Sounds like he is not required this year, even as a cheap trade in. Brissy will nurse him through to finals.

I'm not sure about that. Brissy have to win games to get to the finals. I haven't checked the fixture, but I'm pretty sure the top teams play more last years top teams then the bottom teams do.

 

[freowho]

I'm not sure about that. Brissy have to win games to get to the finals. I haven't checked the fixture, but I'm pretty sure the top teams play more last years top teams then the bottom teams do.

But if he's 115 for the rest of the year there will be others with less question marks over them.

 

[wogitalia]

It might be denial, but looking at each game in isolation kind of gives me a bit of confidence he can turn it around:

Game 1 vs Swans: Rarely scores well against the Swans, so I put that down as an expected result for him. Looking at it closer, not one player hit 30 disposals for the game (highest was 29 and Neale got 24 which was 2nd highest for his team).

Game 2 vs Geelong: Geelong beat the absolute crap out of Neale in this game, exceptionally physical and highest disposals for the game from a Lion was 25. Pretty hard to expect Neale to get a lot of ball when only 3 of his team mates hit 20 disposals. Even Geelong’s highest disposal getter achieved 28. Looking at those stats again, it’s crazy that the Lions were even in the game.

Game 3 vs Pies: 21 disposals after majority of them in the first half. Was almost perfect the first half and then as the ball got more contested and a lack of handball clearances were had, the ball avoided Neale completely. 30 was the highest amount of disposals and that was Pendlebury who found himself in space a lot towards the end and got some very cheap disposals.

Ratios is what I also look at too, considering Neale’s back injury. To have 14 kicks vs 7 handballs this week, when he had 8 and 7 in the first two rounds, tells me that his back is getting better. You don’t go for the kick option as much when your back is bothering you, as it’s a sure fire way to flare it up.

Lastly, the Lions have played in 2 losses and a very tight win where they’ve come from behind (practically all game) to do it. Neale’s big scores have generally come from strong wins or games where they have been dominant in possession from the first quarter. We have yet to see that this season.

It could be blind optimism, but beyond rd 4 I can see a turnaround in Neale’s fortune.

You have definitely been described as a glass half full kind of person multiple times in your life

Biggest winners are those that didn't start with him, however, very few would not have been hit by one of Neale, Rowell, Danger, Caldwell, Green, Fyfe or a general host of underperforming premiums to date.



Interesting way to look at it. Guess because I went to Tex I see it as 2 trades, however, the difference is I am doing it to make money with high certainty at an accelerated level early in the season. 80% chance it makes $150k - $300k gain pre doing the trade given respective BE of both players. Even still, wasn't the easiest call and was tempting to trade Danger, however, I was then reliant on tex performing plus enhanced scoring for 1-2 rounds prior to having spent the Neale loose change.

Touch wood but I managed to do this, of course I can't get out of my own way with rookie choices to thoroughly undo all of that luck!

 

[Bermi]

But if he's 115 for the rest of the year there will be others with less question marks over them.

Yeah, if Neale's back issue keeps flaring up, then I can see him being a FOGI (Fear Of Getting Injured) player, joining the likes of Fyfe and J Kelly, who some Coaches don't want to trade in their teams.

But if he gets over the back problem, I would expect he will be back averaging over 120.

 

[donnybuang]

Feeling like Cripps of 2020 all over again. Now that we know he's injured, hard to justify keeping him.

 

[Nathan]

Only kept him to get a rookie & Cripps->Dunks. I’ll eat the price drop and trade him next week.

 

[Courtesans]

Feeling like Cripps of 2020 all over again. Now that we know he's injured, hard to justify keeping him.

Didn’t, traded him to A. Brayshaw.

 

[Shaunpro1]

Feeling like Cripps of 2020 all over again. Now that we know he's injured, hard to justify keeping him.

I'm not sure it's that drastic the bloke still had 16 touches,5 clearances and a goal in a half of footy, sooner or later he's going to be back playing his best, we've already held through an 80K price drop feels a bit pointless to trade him now.

 

[Bermi]

Feeling like Cripps of 2020 all over again. Now that we know he's injured, hard to justify keeping him.

I cannot justify to keep Neale or not, as I don't know how serious the injury is. My decision is only based on a guess.
Yes, Neale could end up like another Cripps, or bounce back to his 120 plus average, who knows (besides the BRL's medicos).
My main reason for keeping Neale is that I saved a trade.

 

[Juzzo]

It might be denial, but looking at each game in isolation kind of gives me a bit of confidence he can turn it around:

Game 1 vs Swans: Rarely scores well against the Swans, so I put that down as an expected result for him. Looking at it closer, not one player hit 30 disposals for the game (highest was 29 and Neale got 24 which was 2nd highest for his team).

Game 2 vs Geelong: Geelong beat the absolute crap out of Neale in this game, exceptionally physical and highest disposals for the game from a Lion was 25. Pretty hard to expect Neale to get a lot of ball when only 3 of his team mates hit 20 disposals. Even Geelong’s highest disposal getter achieved 28. Looking at those stats again, it’s crazy that the Lions were even in the game.

Game 3 vs Pies: 21 disposals after majority of them in the first half. Was almost perfect the first half and then as the ball got more contested and a lack of handball clearances were had, the ball avoided Neale completely. 30 was the highest amount of disposals and that was Pendlebury who found himself in space a lot towards the end and got some very cheap disposals.

Ratios is what I also look at too, considering Neale’s back injury. To have 14 kicks vs 7 handballs this week, when he had 8 and 7 in the first two rounds, tells me that his back is getting better. You don’t go for the kick option as much when your back is bothering you, as it’s a sure fire way to flare it up.

Lastly, the Lions have played in 2 losses and a very tight win where they’ve come from behind (practically all game) to do it. Neale’s big scores have generally come from strong wins or games where they have been dominant in possession from the first quarter. We have yet to see that this season.

It could be blind optimism, but beyond rd 4 I can see a turnaround in Neale’s fortune.

Plus this huge jump celebrating the win gave me confidence.

 

[donnybuang]

Plus this huge jump celebrating the win gave me confidence.

How many points for the jump?

I'm no back expert, but if he's injured so badly that it shows up on scans, how's he supposed to recover fully while training and playing?

 

[Shaunpro1]

I cannot justify to keep Neale or not, as I don't know how serious the injury is. My decision is only based on a guess.
Yes, Neale could end up like another Cripps, or bounce back to his 120 plus average, who knows (besides the BRL's medicos).
My main reason for keeping Neale is that I saved a trade.

The fact that the game was on the line and Neale pretty much sat forward for the whole 2nd half is a massive concern for me, if they cant trust him when the whips are cracking how long is it before they just give him a week off?

Post game sounded like management was inevitable but may be looking into it too much.

 

[inwhiterooms]

Gone for me this week.

 

[The Experiment]

After umming and ahhing all of last week whether to trade, unless new negative info comes to light before this week's game, I am burying my head in the sand and holding...I know i'll regret it, but the thought of trading another 'premium' out of my team upsets me haha

 

[Bermi]

The fact that the game was on the line and Neale pretty much sat forward for the whole 2nd half is a massive concern for me, if they cant trust him when the whips are cracking how long is it before they just give him a week off?

Post game sounded like management was inevitable but may be looking into it too much.

I am now leaning to trading Neale out because the negatives are outweighing the positives. Even when Neale recovers, can I be sure that his back won't flare up again later in the season, hmmm? That tipped my scales.

I'm pretty happy with my team at the moment and if no late outs, I only planned to trade Chapman in for Koschitzke, so I have a spare trade.

 

[7/11]

After umming and ahhing all of last week whether to trade, unless new negative info comes to light before this week's game, I am burying my head in the sand and holding...I know i'll regret it, but the thought of trading another 'premium' out of my team upsets me haha

Yeah I was firmly in the hold camp before last week’s score. I’m getting an uneasy feeling about holding now though. I will however, stick fat and pray that the SC gods are merciful and bring their favourite son back to form.

 

[Shaunpro1]

I am now leaning to trading Neale out because the negatives are outweighing the positives. Even when Neale recovers, can I be sure that his back won't flare up again later in the season, hmmm? That tipped my scales.

I'm pretty happy with my team at the moment and if no late outs, I only planned to trade Chapman in for Koschitzke, so I have a spare trade.

The thing that swayed me is yes hes dropped cash but the guys still 640K, banking 50K to get Ridley in just feels like a no brainer, worst case scenario Im uograding to Neale instead of Ridley and Neale will be alot cheaper than Ridley would have been.