Analysis 2021: The Lachie Neale Conundrum

[Spifflicator]

So when do we start looking at trading Neale in?

BE 177 so hes still 2-3 week away IMO. Should be well under $500k by then.

 

[SuchIsLife]

Regardless of some junk time stats and a SC score of 85. 27 touches and 8 clearances against that Bulldogs midfield has been his best game so far.

He's close, maybe 2-3 rounds away.

 

[Borris]

Any other hodlers still out there?! 🙂

 

[Bontempele]

The week I trade Neale

 

[Santoz]

Time to buy.

 

[Philzsay]

Any other hodlers still out there?! 🙂

Yep I still have him. Perfect time for him to go large to o***et the Waterman & Ridley disasters tonight.

 

[blue dreamer]

Any other hodlers still out there?! 🙂

I'm here

 

[kadog]

Yep

 

[Blaze]

Well done to those that held...i traded last week and got a nice Ridley 124...i don't remember what happened after that.....🤥🤫

 

[GrainFedBeef]

Starting to look better, they did say during the week it was the best he has been. Expect BE may be 100 which will afford one more week to look at him without hurting.

With downgrades will aim for round 7 together him back in,

 

[randomcliche]

Rename thread 'King Lockie is back'. Checks team, where is he? Stop press, title remains current.

 

[7/11]

It might be denial, but looking at each game in isolation kind of gives me a bit of confidence he can turn it around:

Game 1 vs Swans: Rarely scores well against the Swans, so I put that down as an expected result for him. Looking at it closer, not one player hit 30 disposals for the game (highest was 29 and Neale got 24 which was 2nd highest for his team).

Game 2 vs Geelong: Geelong beat the absolute crap out of Neale in this game, exceptionally physical and highest disposals for the game from a Lion was 25. Pretty hard to expect Neale to get a lot of ball when only 3 of his team mates hit 20 disposals. Even Geelong’s highest disposal getter achieved 28. Looking at those stats again, it’s crazy that the Lions were even in the game.

Game 3 vs Pies: 21 disposals after majority of them in the first half. Was almost perfect the first half and then as the ball got more contested and a lack of handball clearances were had, the ball avoided Neale completely. 30 was the highest amount of disposals and that was Pendlebury who found himself in space a lot towards the end and got some very cheap disposals.

Ratios is what I also look at too, considering Neale’s back injury. To have 14 kicks vs 7 handballs this week, when he had 8 and 7 in the first two rounds, tells me that his back is getting better. You don’t go for the kick option as much when your back is bothering you, as it’s a sure fire way to flare it up.

Lastly, the Lions have played in 2 losses and a very tight win where they’ve come from behind (practically all game) to do it. Neale’s big scores have generally come from strong wins or games where they have been dominant in possession from the first quarter. We have yet to see that this season.

It could be blind optimism, but beyond rd 4 I can see a turnaround in Neale’s fortune.

 

[Zim^zuM]

Any other hodlers still out there?! 🙂

Yep, I was firm on trade after round 1 or cop the hit no matter how bad.

 

[WindyHillWizard]

Any other hodlers still out there?! 🙂

Yep. Felt like a crazy bad decision to hold over the past month, so good to finally be rewarded. I think if you traded Neale to Tex after Round 2 you are still well in front.

 

[Yasi]

Any other hodlers still out there?! 🙂

Still holding. Neale to Ridley was a very popular trade.

Yep. Went all last year without and so pride wouldn’t let me trade him without giving he at least one “NEALE!!!!!” moment.

 

[Bermi]

Neale plays Carlton next weekend and Carlton uses Curnow as a tagger. If he tags Neale and Neale scores lowish, then that may give non-Neale owners an extra week to get enough funds to get him in.

 

[BarginHunter]

Neale plays Carlton next weekend and Carlton uses Curnow as a tagger. If he tags Neale and Neale scores lowish, then that may give non-Neale owners an extra week to get enough funds to get him in.

Surely Carlton wouldn't tag an recovering from injury player??

 

[Bermi]

"Brutally honest" Neale on "debilitating" back issue that's held him back (sen.com.au)

"BRUTALLY HONEST" NEALE ON "DEBILITATING" BACK ISSUE THAT'S HELD HIM BACK

Reigning Brownlow Medallist Lachie Neale believes he is starting to return to his best after a back issue hampered him in the first month of the season.

After a slow start, he was back to his best in Brisbane’s 57-point win over Essendon, picking up 38 disposals and kicking two goals.

Neale admits the back issue has frustrated him so far this season.

“To be honest, I probably wasn’t able to compartmentalise the issue as well as I have with other issues in the past and to be brutally honest I let it affect my mindset and psyche throughout the week and then wasn’t able to deliver on the weekend,” the Lions star told SEN Breakfast.

“It’s a small sample size, but I thought I was able to do that through the week a lot better and go out and play my role on the weekend. A step in the right direction but I’ve got to back it up now.”

“It’s been debilitating enough that I haven’t been able to train anywhere near as much as I would like and then on game day I’ve felt pretty good, I’ve obviously had some help medically to get through some games, but once I put my hand up and once I’m out there I don’t feel that sort of stuff.

“I’ve had issues in the past and been able to work through them better than I have in the last few weeks. There’s no excuse, I just haven’t performed.”

Neale says he is starting to return to normal programming during the week.

“I’m getting better every week definitely in terms of pain and last week I was able to do training basically for the first time in a while,” he said.

“I’ve still got some recovery to go, but I’m feeling a lot better than a few weeks ago so I think I’m over the hump.”

 

[PC]

McStay was back last week and Neale also scored well. I know he has a back issue but is there any correlation between a 'good' Lions ruck and Neale's scoring?

EDIT - changed question to be about Lions ruck and Neale scoring rather than incorrect disc on McStay injury.

 

[wogitalia]

McStay was back for last week and now seems to be injured again? Neale also scored well last week. I know he has a back issue but is there any correlation between a 'good' Lions ruck and Neale's scoring?

I'd say a hard no on that given how he scored last year in particular when the corpse of Stef Martin was their best ruck. Pretty sure at this point it would almost be detrimental for them when they have to try and pick which ruckman to rove to instead of just going the opponent

Do think the wet weather helped them a lot though, they've been very soft to start the season and wet weather has that tendency to force you to get dirty whether you really want to or not and that flows on across the board.