Strategy Round 5: Trades

[Chumpion]

After being firmly in the “hold Daniel” camp I’m starting to reconsider. Missing a week plus the cash drop on top of that.. tough pill to swallow. Plus strong chance if he does come back and look good he can be a bargain upgrade.. but off the 4 games we’ve seen there is enough question marks on role to suggest he is no backline lock.

So currently thinking:

Daniel, Daniher -> Steele, Waterman

That said, I feel a lot more confident about it as I’ve only done 2 trades so far this season.

 

[Ben's Beasts]

After being firmly in the “hold Daniel” camp I’m starting to reconsider. Missing a week plus the cash drop on top of that.. tough pill to swallow. Plus strong chance if he does come back and look good he can be a bargain upgrade.. but off the 4 games we’ve seen there is enough question marks on role to suggest he is no backline lock.

So currently thinking:

Daniel, Daniher -> Steele, Waterman

That said, I feel a lot more confident about it as I’ve only done 2 trades so far this season.

In a heartbeat.

Particularly with just two trades down.

Daniel is gone for me and I’ve used five!

 

[Chumpion]

In a heartbeat.

Particularly with just two trades down.

Daniel is gone for me and I’ve used five!

Yep being able to get in a likely top 4-5 mid and not have to deal with Daniel is a lot of good vibes!

To be fair I wish I’d made a trade or two more as missed some good cash gen mid pricers..

 

[wogitalia]

Not very creative this round but will hopefully get some money flowing in the right direction
Caleb Daniel>Heath Chapman.
Paul Hunter> Alec Waterman.

I normally wouldn't do it but Jones after his first game for an extra 70k makes more sense to me than Chapman.

Many of us hoping they do hold down F5/F6 or at least one of them.

For those of us who missed Walker, I'm aiming for M4/5 from them right now and by aiming I mean needing. Dunkley, Martin and Danger are the F1-3 and sadly my boy Butters who was on that way is now dead.

My trades are looking:

Butters OUT

Hind/Atkins/Waterman - In preferred order.

I have to field two of Rowe, Bergman (who I like for Duursma's spot and some good scoring) and one of my F/M if I go Waterman and I've seen nothing I really love about Waterman (who I don't think I could field) to really justify that kind of drop, 400k is nice though.

Hind I like more than Atkins, he's more dynamic and has more routes of scoring, Atkins very dependent on winning contested balls right now rather than a strong underlying amount of ball or desire by his team to get it to him and they should be stronger with Danger and co back and really need to move the ball quicker. Hind I think can average 95 and be a keeper at F6 (I think there are probably 3-4 guys averaging 100+ and the rest in that 90-100 range by season end, I could be wrong!). So strongly leaning Hind.

Will do Meek to Hickey if Meek and Flynn not named, even with Waterman I can't get to Gawn so Hickey is the best stopgap I can get to and take Hind, no other ruck is worth paying for imo and even Hickey I hate as a pick, it's the pathway to multiple ruck trades, so hopefully one of those is named.

If Dow is dropped then I will strongly consider Powell or Waterman. Powell on field in his upgraded role is a big chance to get to 400k, imo, so still worth it at 241k but it's a really risky move. Waterman spreads my forward bench real thin. Could also conceivably go for Jones and field one of him and Chapman down back and swing Laird to middle but he's probably stuck there for a while if I do.

 

[mb06]

Is it too late to get CJ and Impey in? Im currently thinking to trade them in for Daniel and Clark. Its so far outside of what i would normally do, but 3 tons in a row for each is very hard to ignore/tolerate.

Its going to take some mental gymnastics for me to do it given they are collectively 300k more than their starting prices, but It would be with the view that they are D6/F6 by years end.

 

[wogitalia]

Is it too late to get CJ and Impey in? Im currently thinking to trade them in for Daniel and Clark. Its so far outside of what i would normally do, but 3 tons in a row for each is very hard to ignore/tolerate.

Its going to take some mental gymnastics for me to do it given they are collectively 300k more than their starting prices, but It would be with the view that they are D6/F6 by years end.

It really depends what you see from them...

I'd say Impey is the better option still because the forward cutoff for F6 scoring looks likely to be in the 90s to me while the defender cut-off is looking closer to 105.

From cash generation it's hard to make a case, basically they need to hit premium scoring from here to generate the kind of cash to justify the trade which means you're back to the above of thinking they're keeper scorers.

Ultimately it's pretty rare for a side to have basically 3 ~100+ averaging defenders so the likelihood they all stay there seems very low (Hardwick the 3rd), yes the Hawks look a poor side and the supply should be great and they're also playing a very sideways retention game plan right now but ultimately I think that the whole group is likely to fall backwards a bit. Hardwick taking more kick-ins is probably the highest floor but the other two more damaging with run and carry. Last year the Pies managed two guys and the Swans two guys, think that was it and to be fair both played similar styles to what the Hawks have so far.

I'm personally hoping Impey can be around the 95 mark but I think there are 3 clear cut best forwards right now and I don't have Walker who appears the 4th but I think we saw closer to what he is on the weekend and he could still turn back into a pumpkin (I need this!), basically I think you've got Danger, Martin and Dunkley in that 105+ type range and then an army in the 90-100 range, if you pay low enough then a 93 would do the trick against a 100 and Impey definitely low enough for that still if he can deliver.

In comparison for mine the backs have a solid 6+ guys who look good bets to be 105+ range. Lloyd, Laird, Mills and Ridley all look likely and so far Short, Bowes, Houston, Doch and Stewart all look really decent chances and you can then throw in the Jiath, Rich, Smith, Daniel, Houli, Howe and Ryan who at least have cases going right now.

 

[Quasimodo]

Is it too late to get CJ and Impey in? Im currently thinking to trade them in for Daniel and Clark. Its so far outside of what i would normally do, but 3 tons in a row for each is very hard to ignore/tolerate.

Its going to take some mental gymnastics for me to do it given they are collectively 300k more than their starting prices, but It would be with the view that they are D6/F6 by years end.

On balance I think it's too late for the majority of non owners to bring in Impey and CJ now. You are probably better served taking Clark down to a rookie like L.Jones or even Chappy if you missed him, or ideally Waterman if you can swing it via DPP. Then using the other trade to take the suspended helmet up to who you like best (or don't own) out of Rids/Lloyd/Short/Laird.

I'm using the opportunity to take the helmet straight up to Dunks via DPP with some bank I fortunately have. But if Impey really fills a hole at F5/F6 for you then I can see some argument in still chasing him as he's likely the best sub $400K forward money can buy right now.

However now both CJ and Impey really need to be keepers to prove successful trades. It only takes one poor score in the 50s or 60s or worse in the next few weeks to completely stall (and even reverse their cash gen) given they are both getting to the $400K mark. So they are no longer viable stepping stones in my view.

 

[meataxe]

Is it too late to get CJ and Impey in? Im currently thinking to trade them in for Daniel and Clark. Its so far outside of what i would normally do, but 3 tons in a row for each is very hard to ignore/tolerate.
.

Think the Risk/ Reward is a bit high now for both, at nearly $400k. You're basically buying them at not far off a fallen premium price, so you're buying to hold. Having said that, if you feel quite certain that either one can average what you need, then why not.

 

[wogitalia]

Think the Risk/ Reward is a bit high now for both, at nearly $400k. You're basically buying them at not far off a fallen premium price, so you're buying to hold. Having said that, if you feel quite certain that either one can average what you need, then why not.

As someone who has trodden down the Wingard path an embarrassingly high amount of times... just don't do it. He always gets injured, he always gets stuck as a forward for a month and he always has hot and cold streaks. He's a really solid option as an F7 type to loophole.

To be fair, as a midfielder he's a great scorer but he always has a game where he kicks 3 or 4 from the midfield and then gets his ass stuck at FF for a month, loses all form and then fades away to oblivion.

If you like rollercoasters that end in depression though, he's as good as it gets

 

[BomberSam]

Daniel to Dunkley via DPP is likely. Should probably grab Dunks before he gets away from me!

Who should I trade to get Waterman?

The options are:

Daniher
Brockman
Jordon

Campbell is the other option but I have a strong urge to hold him as I'm bullish he will be one of the cash cows of the season. I'm 1/1 so far as I remember saying something similar about Coxy. I don't want to tempt fate but I'm backing my gut on this one and I'll see if I can go 2/2.

 

[Manikato1]

Considering Campbell to Waterman (although @BomberSam is trying to convince me otherwise)

That then allows several options for a C Daniel trade.

Daniel to

Lloyd but leaves me with limited cash which I don't like and Lloyd has 151 BE. But he is a premium player.
Rich who could be a D 5 or 6 but is that what I want. Gives me 135k though
Or.... take the big plunge and go Jiath who is on the rise and would give me $249k for another upgrade. Could he be a keeper?

Current def

Ridley, Laird, Short, Daniel, H Clark, Chapman

 

[Shaunpro1]

Considering Campbell to Waterman (although @BomberSam is trying to convince me otherwise)

That then allows several options for a C Daniel trade.

Daniel to

Lloyd but leaves me with limited cash which I don't like and Lloyd has 151 BE. But he is a premium player.
Rich who could be a D 5 or 6 but is that what I want. Gives me 135k though
Or.... take the big plunge and go Jiath who is on the rise and would give me $249k for another upgrade. Could he be a keeper?

Current def

Ridley, Laird, Short, Daniel, H Clark, Chapman

Id only trade Campbell if you're using the cash but I'm not sure I'd get Lloyd yet, probably bottoms out at 550k with a average game and every cent counts this year, Bowes is in ripping form and still cheap and I dont think Stewart will be much cheaper than this all year and is as consistent as they come, rather go down that path than pay up 620K for a defender, wouldn't go near Rich but each to their own on that one.

While CJ has been awesome for me Im not sure I can condone paying nearly 400K for him, good luck with whatever decision you make.

 

[GrainFedBeef]

Considering Campbell to Waterman (although @BomberSam is trying to convince me otherwise)

That then allows several options for a C Daniel trade.

Daniel to

Lloyd but leaves me with limited cash which I don't like and Lloyd has 151 BE. But he is a premium player.
Rich who could be a D 5 or 6 but is that what I want. Gives me 135k though
Or.... take the big plunge and go Jiath who is on the rise and would give me $249k for another upgrade. Could he be a keeper?

Current def

Ridley, Laird, Short, Daniel, H Clark, Chapman

Campbell BE comes down in round 6 when his 29 rolls off. More predictable than some other rookies still and another 50-60 then all it takes one big score.

Defence looks ok for now, bring in Jones on bench and you should be able to sit on it for a while. Lloyd kick outs fell away as Dawson took them. Did I see Dawson injured. 95, Lloyd going to fall.

My view is take an extra trade and get a midfielder in like Steele or Olivier.

I get the move Daniel on desire and dont have a strong view. Do you have Clarke you can move back for Daniel?

All depends on how many trades you have used. If a lot, then Jiath stacks if you hold him as a kepper and can live with a 70 and a few 100’s.

 

[freowho]

I normally wouldn't do it but Jones after his first game for an extra 70k makes more sense to me than Chapman.



For those of us who missed Walker, I'm aiming for M4/5 from them right now and by aiming I mean needing. Dunkley, Martin and Danger are the F1-3 and sadly my boy Butters who was on that way is now dead.

My trades are looking:

Butters OUT

Hind/Atkins/Waterman - In preferred order.

I have to field two of Rowe, Bergman (who I like for Duursma's spot and some good scoring) and one of my F/M if I go Waterman and I've seen nothing I really love about Waterman (who I don't think I could field) to really justify that kind of drop, 400k is nice though.

Hind I like more than Atkins, he's more dynamic and has more routes of scoring, Atkins very dependent on winning contested balls right now rather than a strong underlying amount of ball or desire by his team to get it to him and they should be stronger with Danger and co back and really need to move the ball quicker. Hind I think can average 95 and be a keeper at F6 (I think there are probably 3-4 guys averaging 100+ and the rest in that 90-100 range by season end, I could be wrong!). So strongly leaning Hind.

Will do Meek to Hickey if Meek and Flynn not named, even with Waterman I can't get to Gawn so Hickey is the best stopgap I can get to and take Hind, no other ruck is worth paying for imo and even Hickey I hate as a pick, it's the pathway to multiple ruck trades, so hopefully one of those is named.

If Dow is dropped then I will strongly consider Powell or Waterman. Powell on field in his upgraded role is a big chance to get to 400k, imo, so still worth it at 241k but it's a really risky move. Waterman spreads my forward bench real thin. Could also conceivably go for Jones and field one of him and Chapman down back and swing Laird to middle but he's probably stuck there for a while if I do.

Even if Meek is picked he looks cooked and that paltry score is now keeping his cash down. I would trade him regardless.

 

[inwhiterooms]

Flynn/Meek R2/3 issue for me so my trades will depend a lot on whether either are named.

If Flynn misses again:

Daniel > L. Jones
Meek > Hickey

If Flynn is back:

Jordon/Brockman/Scott > Waterman
Daniel > Bowes

Either way I’m now holding on for dear life as I’m out of trades.

 

[Santoz]

Planning ...

Kosi & Butters out - L.Jones & Waterman in

Will allow me to go early on Neale & Jelly next week for Gulden & Campbell/Powell.

There may be a few rookies on the horizon that could be worth getting in 3 weeks time, like Macrae.

 

[Leroy]

Surely Flynn is recalled this week (please oh please)?
It almost seemed like a premeditated thing to bring in Mumford so that Flynn didn't have to face Grundy after toiling against the Gawn the week before. Skips the travel, skips the cold, skips the 2nd best ruck and is refreshed for the next few games.

Plus I reckon Mumford, ageing warhorse that he is, is probably good for one game a month before needing recovery himself.

Maybe I'm just optimistic?

 

[Inside50]

Powell worth it? Should have him I guess, but didn’t look like he’d hurt me. Now North have some injuries, he’ll get opportunity. Will get to $350k but is that enough?

 

[incog43]

Powell worth it? Should have him I guess, but didn’t look like he’d hurt me. Now North have some injuries, he’ll get opportunity. Will get to $350k but is that enough?

if he could get to $400 I think it would be a decent trade....$350 is not enough imo.

 

[Inside50]

if he could get to $400 I think it would be a decent trade....$350 is not enough imo.

Thanks. I think $350k is a base - he could get higher. Hard to know. And in a year like this > $100k locked in is not terrible.