Strategy Round 5: Trades

[Inside50]

Surely Flynn is recalled this week (please oh please)?
It almost seemed like a premeditated thing to bring in Mumford so that Flynn didn't have to face Grundy after toiling against the Gawn the week before. Skips the travel, skips the cold, skips the 2nd best ruck and is refreshed for the next few games.

Plus I reckon Mumford, ageing warhorse that he is, is probably good for one game a month before needing recovery himself.

Maybe I'm just optimistic?

I’m worried, Mumford was just so good. While they can still make finals why not play him if fit? Could definitely go a couple of weeks before needing a rest.

 

[bloke]

Daniel is an interesting one for me. I am going to trade given I've only used 3 so far. Would love to use this as an opportunity to get Ridley but he's just so expensive now that it would take a downgrade to get to him, which feels like such a waste.

Am considering Daniel > Bowes, who looks good.

Other trade I am not sure on. Still have Duggan who also looks pretty poor considering other def scorers, but awkward price and will be hard to get him up to a sure-thing premium.

No rookies looks like needing culling either and besides Waterman no one jumping up to be picked

 

[Zimmer]

Daniel situation is annoying. If it was just a question of a week's suspension, he's a definite hold. But his 19 and less than ideal scoring outside Round 1 makes it more difficult. I'd like to trade him.

So far I've used five:
1: Danger to Martin (Injury/Suspension)

2: Jones to Jordon (rookie "correction")
3: Caldwell to Impey (Injury/Suspension)

4: Clark to Ridley (Upgrade)
5: Sharp to Chapman (rookie correction)

Think I'll have to hold, pending teams. Still got Kosi and Highmore on the Def bench. Will need to cover a donut if they don't come in.

 

[frostylane]

Current team with limited funds 4.6k

Laird, Short, Crisp, Stewart, Daniel, Clark. (Kosi, Highmore.)

Macrae, Merrett, Dunkley, Titchell, Goulden, Powell, JordOn, Berry. (Scott, Sharp, Fyfe.)

Gawn, Grundy. (Flynn.)

Dusty, Tex, Ziebell, Atkins, Impey, Campbell. (Rowe, Treacy.)

Have saved trades so time to fix a few issues.
Initial thoughts are.
Campbell B/E 71 to Waterman B/E -77,
Daniel B/E 159 to Ridley B/E 88.

Thinking it's the right way to go, 1 down, 1 up. In the words of Bruce, Ridley is Special.

Thinking outside the square. (This is what I need to be talked out of.)
Daniel B/E 159 to Jiath B/E 7.
Campbell B/E 71 to Heppell B/E 7,

Thoughts are, it's a weird season, mid prices are performing well, cows aren't mooing, limited cash generation.
Am I better off with 2 players averaging solid 85 - 90s every week rather than the proven 1 up, 1 down theory.

Any other outside the square suggestions are welcomed.

Current team with limited funds 4.6k

Laird, Short, Crisp, Stewart, Daniel, Clark. (Kosi, Highmore.)

Macrae, Merrett, Dunkley, Titchell, Goulden, Powell, JordOn, Berry. (Scott, Sharp, Fyfe.)

Gawn, Grundy. (Flynn.)

Dusty, Tex, Ziebell, Atkins, Impey, Campbell. (Rowe, Treacy.)

Have saved trades so time to fix a few issues.
Initial thoughts are.
Campbell B/E 71 to Waterman B/E -77,
Daniel B/E 159 to Ridley B/E 88.

Thinking it's the right way to go, 1 down, 1 up. In the words of Bruce, Ridley is Special.

Thinking outside the square. (This is what I need to be talked out of.)
Daniel B/E 159 to Jiath B/E 7.
Campbell B/E 71 to Heppell B/E 7,

Thoughts are, it's a weird season, mid prices are performing well, cows aren't mooing, limited cash generation.
Am I better off with 2 players averaging solid 85 - 90s every week rather than the proven 1 up, 1 down theory.

Any other outside the square suggestions are welcomed.

I was thinking the same with 2 of my midfield rookies, getting 2 average 85+ players rather than 1 up 1 down. Maybe considering Parish who will also suit my bye structure r.14 and Brad Crouch. Any thoughts on these 2 players?

 

[TigerTime]

DeGoey has to go as he's scoring like a rookie and Heeney looks like a month out, so those 2 to Tex and Impey.
I know I'm late to the party, but I've burnt thru trades and need some cut price keepers.
Just gotta hope Tex and Imp can keep it up

 

[HoleyFrijole$]

Some formula generated expected rest of year averages below for those interested. Showing all > 80 and not currently long term injured.

Looks at preseason prediction (last 3 years, age, positional/team change, etc) as well as exposed 2021 form. A lot of it "feels" about right based on the discussions lurking around here. For context - 6 games this year would be seen as enough to go on alone, under that (which is everyone given 4 games played) is proportionate to number of games this year / 6 vs remaining games (of 6) vs preseason prediction. For example, Danger at one game has a higher weighting for last 3 years vs Walker who's played all 4 games. The figure derived here was then seen as end of year average, of which remaining year average was calculated and presented below.

Perfect for the supercoacher who would prefer to run maths equations than think for themselves. I bear no responsibility for any trades you make on the below advice, it's enough pressure for my selections alone!

Could be good to get some discussion going in any case.

 

[scarfaceclaw]

I'm moving towards hold Daniel. I didnt see the match so I have less rage, just confusion. I'm working on the unbased theory that his illegal tackle freaked him.

Anyway, I'm looking at a very boring trade like Sharp to Waterman

If kosi doesn't get named I can go early on L Jones.

 

[Spifflicator]

DeGoey has to go as he's scoring like a rookie and Heeney looks like a month out, so those 2 to Tex and Impey.
I know I'm late to the party, but I've burnt thru trades and need some cut price keepers.
Just gotta hope Tex and Imp can keep it up

The main problem I can see with that strategy, is that you are locking in a $320k headstart to those who started them and paid less. (Walker is now priced at around a 90 ave, and may not average much more than that from here.)

Dont get me wrong, I dont think are necessarily bad trades, but I reckon you might be better off to gamble with other low ownership premos i.e Greene, or another leftfield option is a midpricer like Stringer @ $288k on the bubble (lets face it midpricers are dominating this year). At least you have PODs and the ability to move away from the pack, while Walker and Impey put you behind the pack in dollar terms.

 

[incog43]

Phillips to Petracca.

Thoughts?

 

[Rumbler]

Daniel is an interesting one for me. I am going to trade given I've only used 3 so far. Would love to use this as an opportunity to get Ridley but he's just so expensive now that it would take a downgrade to get to him, which feels like such a waste.

Am considering Daniel > Bowes, who looks good.

Other trade I am not sure on. Still have Duggan who also looks pretty poor considering other def scorers, but awkward price and will be hard to get him up to a sure-thing premium.

No rookies looks like needing culling either and besides Waterman no one jumping up to be picked

Just out of interest, how many "keepers" do you currently have in your team?

I'm in a similar situation where I've only used 3 trades so far (2 forced ones due to injuries to Rowell & H.Young and the other trade for a rookie correction).
However I only have 13 "keepers" at the moment and that's if you include Daniel. I'm slightly reluctant to trade sideways but looking at a bench donut this week unless Kosch or Highmore get picked. Highmore is unlikely to and even if Kosch plays I doubt he'll score much anyways.

Got about 145k in the bank. Not sure if it's worthwhile doing a sideways trade. If I did it might be to get T.Stewart (who I'm regretting not starting with).

Also got a few non-playing rookies at the moment (Bergman, Sharp). Might need to use another trade to get Waterman in if he is a must-have. That would leave me with 25 trades for 9 upgrades. Which does not sound promising at all.
Looking ahead, L.Jones could also be on the bubble next week.

Too many uncertainties and not enough trades! Just don't know what to do lol

 

[TigerTime]

The main problem I can see with that strategy, is that you are locking in a $320k headstart to those who started them and paid less. (Walker is now priced at around a 90 ave, and may not average much more than that from here.)

Dont get me wrong, I dont think are necessarily bad trades, but I reckon you might be better off to gamble with other low ownership premos i.e Greene, or another leftfield option is a midpricer like Stringer @ $288k on the bubble (lets face it midpricers are dominating this year). At least you have PODs and the ability to move away from the pack, while Walker and Impey put you behind the pack in dollar terms.

You may be right and I have considered Toby instead, but the Texan is very hard to ignore. I went the POD option in Heeney a couple of weeks back which has backfired and sent me further back; and I could see Greene and Stringer ending the same way.
Will definitely look deeper into Greene's upcoming fixture though. Stringer I'm not a fan of so wouldn't go there.
Thanks for your thoughts 👍

 

[toxic]

Noah Anderson anyone?

 

[Spifflicator]

Just out of interest, how many "keepers" do you currently have in your team?

I'm in a similar situation where I've only used 3 trades so far (2 forced ones due to injuries to Rowell & H.Young and the other trade for a rookie correction).
However I only have 13 "keepers" at the moment and that's if you include Daniel. I'm slightly reluctant to trade sideways but looking at a bench donut this week unless Kosch or Highmore get picked. Highmore is unlikely to and even if Kosch plays I doubt he'll score much anyways.

Got about 145k in the bank. Not sure if it's worthwhile doing a sideways trade. If I did it might be to get T.Stewart (who I'm regretting not starting with).

Also got a few non-playing rookies at the moment (Bergman, Sharp). Might need to use another trade to get Waterman in if he is a must-have. That would leave me with 25 trades for 9 upgrades. Which does not sound promising at all.
Looking ahead, L.Jones could also be on the bubble next week.

Too many uncertainties and not enough trades! Just don't know what to do lol

I dont see Waterman as a must have. To me he is Rowe Mk2, with less job security. Has kicked 2 goals as a small fwd in each game, if he doesn't score those he is a 20-50 player on the fringe of the best 22. That said he is bargain basement cheap, and probably only needs to play 3 more games with one of them an 80 to get you $100k, anything more than that is a bonus.

The risk is if he plays poorly V Swans & scores a 20, he gets dropped.

 

[spinoff]

Shai Bolton for Butters(?!). Trac vs Oliver vs Anderson (for non playing rookie out, Bowey *** was I thinking?)...

 

[OnTopBar]

OTB why do you think Option 2 is best. Uses all my cash and swaps one premo for another. Gives me a C option and gets me top two rucks. Leaves very week forward and def on field rookie choices.

Ryan for Daniel is a like for like change and still need to address ruck hole. Jiath and Hickey is a punt on Jiath making as a d6. But provides depth at ruck and def and limits exposure.

I don't know if I would class swapping Daniel to Gawn as a premo swap, you would be getting one of the top scorers in the comp for a guy that looks to be outside the top 10 on his line. Sets your ruckline and doesn't leave you exposed when Flynn is rested again, also gives you the option of upgrading Flynn when he has maxxed out to another rookie. Yes, you will be more exposed but that's the cost of bringing in an expensive player. So if not now then when would you have the funds for this move? Pity not to have brought Chapman in last week as the cash saved could have led to bringing in Jones next week ( Kosi and/or Highmore could be good chances of being named this week) The Fwd rookies are those that I would upgrade 1st as it's generally the weakest line for rookie scores.

Of course this is just my opinion and I have gone full G n R's this year (with a full rookie ruckline) leaving me highly exposed to low onfield scores from my rookies.

 

[Shifty1]

Not too much talk about Heeny, l must be one of the few.

Thinking Heeny to Atkins, he's averaging approx 95 with his new role. Also leaves some cash in the kitty for later.

Waterman to come in for Campbell or Jordon depending who's not named to play.

Daniels is a problem that can wait untill next week.

 

[Zimmer]

Some formula generated expected rest of year averages below for those interested. Showing all > 80 and not currently long term injured.

Looks at preseason prediction (last 3 years, age, positional/team change, etc) as well as exposed 2021 form. A lot of it "feels" about right based on the discussions lurking around here. For context - 6 games this year would be seen as enough to go on alone, under that (which is everyone given 4 games played) is proportionate to number of games this year / 6 vs remaining games (of 6) vs preseason prediction. For example, Danger at one game has a higher weighting for last 3 years vs Walker who's played all 4 games. The figure derived here was then seen as end of year average, of which remaining year average was calculated and presented below.

Perfect for the supercoacher who would prefer to run maths equations than think for themselves. I bear no responsibility for any trades you make on the below advice, it's enough pressure for my selections alone!

Could be good to get some discussion going in any case.

View attachment 28647

Thanks for this. It's very good in the sense that you get to see a very straightforward data set, (literally, as its visually well constructed) rather than multiple parameters - which I tend to find ends up more confusing than beneficial at times. (Even though I appreciate the multiple parameters that have gone into its construction.) Reckon this will be great for identifying players of interest and then moving forward with my own particular research into more specific data, and in relation to my team.

Also, I reckon it's a given we all to take responsibility for our what we do with our teams - but efforts like this make us all the more informed. Great point of reference for us to think for ourselves, rather than one set of data or the other.

And a general shout-out to the efforts put in on this site, from the mods especially. There are heaps of people that go above and beyond, which is what makes the place so good.

 

[Zimmer]

Not too much talk about Heeny, l must be one of the few.

Thinking Heeny to Atkins, he's averaging approx 95 with his new role. Also leaves some cash in the kitty for later.

Waterman to come in for Campbell or Jordon depending who's not named to play.

Daniels is a problem that can wait untill next week.

@Herbie66 will have some feedback on Heeney.

 

[NT.Thunder]

Haven't seen too many talking about bring Dangerfield in, he's back this week isn't he?

 

[Herbie66]

@Herbie66 will have some feedback on Heeney.

I want to have Heeney's children 😀

Have emailed Virtual Sports and asked them if he can remain permanently in my side for the next 29 years.

I only need 29 players to win this competition !!!

Actually keeping him this round and trading out Daniel instead.