Strategy Round 7: Trades
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I reckon he's not far from fairly priced, both the last two weeks have been a bit of a scramble, which is both a positive and a negative.
Still think he's a solid 85-95 average in the role he's playing so he's getting to the point pricewise that he really needs to hit the high end of that projection.
On the flip side with Dunkley and Danger down in the forwards there is only really Ziebell (everyone has) and Walker left that are scoring or look likely to score at a significantly higher level than that.
I reckon I personally like Sidebottom at 60k more for a sure thing but I may be biased by already having Impey and my eternal pessimism based on everything else this season falling apart!
I still really like Atkins as well who is just 399k as another option that I'd say is similar to Impey, though perhaps a notch below him.
Want to see his role with Ryder to be honest as he did pretty much all his work from the ruck and it was his around the ground play that really stood out and the way the Saints are playing I don't think he can score well as a forward come ruck. Given the two injuries he's had I'd also like to see him string some games together.
Having said that if you're concerned about the ruck position and took Treacy for his 5k price jump to be able to work it then I could see more merit on moving on him.
BE at 146 says to me that you can afford to wait a couple of weeks and see how things unfold. With the way players are dropping I think it's one of those years where waiting the extra week for surety is gaining value.
Still think he's a solid 85-95 average in the role he's playing so he's getting to the point pricewise that he really needs to hit the high end of that projection.
On the flip side with Dunkley and Danger down in the forwards there is only really Ziebell (everyone has) and Walker left that are scoring or look likely to score at a significantly higher level than that.
I reckon I personally like Sidebottom at 60k more for a sure thing but I may be biased by already having Impey and my eternal pessimism based on everything else this season falling apart!
I still really like Atkins as well who is just 399k as another option that I'd say is similar to Impey, though perhaps a notch below him.
Want to see his role with Ryder to be honest as he did pretty much all his work from the ruck and it was his around the ground play that really stood out and the way the Saints are playing I don't think he can score well as a forward come ruck. Given the two injuries he's had I'd also like to see him string some games together.
Having said that if you're concerned about the ruck position and took Treacy for his 5k price jump to be able to work it then I could see more merit on moving on him.
BE at 146 says to me that you can afford to wait a couple of weeks and see how things unfold. With the way players are dropping I think it's one of those years where waiting the extra week for surety is gaining value.
After a double downgrade last week (including Danger) I'm thinking this week will be:
Dunkley -> Sidebottom
Campbell -> Brayshaw
Only costs 100k from my kitty meaning I've got some cash to spend the next week, with the early plan being Marshall and May but need to do some backline digging to see if I like some of the other options more.
Effectively means I can turn 2 injury trades (Dunk, Danger) and 2 rookies into 4 bargain keepers. Need to get some spud rookies off the field!
Dunkley -> Sidebottom
Campbell -> Brayshaw
Only costs 100k from my kitty meaning I've got some cash to spend the next week, with the early plan being Marshall and May but need to do some backline digging to see if I like some of the other options more.
Effectively means I can turn 2 injury trades (Dunk, Danger) and 2 rookies into 4 bargain keepers. Need to get some spud rookies off the field!
They look great moves to me especially in a season where rookie cash gen is compromised and trades are getting burned on constant injuries. A team full of 22 uber premiums is probably a pipe dream now. You would be getting a reasonable F6 and M8 and both are underpriced for their expected output in my view. In fact Impey is actually the No. 6 FWD right now. 
Of course there are some risks such as Brayshaw's susceptibility to the tag and opposition coaches have picked up on that. As for Impey he's never delivered premium scoring until now plus has had some durability concerns in recent years. But all considered I think they are pretty good trades for the money Shannon.
Of course there are some risks such as Brayshaw's susceptibility to the tag and opposition coaches have picked up on that. As for Impey he's never delivered premium scoring until now plus has had some durability concerns in recent years. But all considered I think they are pretty good trades for the money Shannon.
I think we have to target premiums that are value for money/ reduce the amount of rookies on the field - Powell/ Jordon/Warner are about the only we can can field now with any confidence.
I went early on Macrae this week so no obvious standout rookie option for me this week so this double upgrade value premium play appeals.
Aware Impey a top 6 fwd, he was so good as the game went on today, just has the perfect rebounding defender role so can’t see why his scoring would drop off.
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Need to fix a backline donut/sub score... Thinking of holding Dunkley a week to suss out my fwd options. Have $225k in the bank (went early on F Macrae this week when I heard about the Dunkley injury)
Thinking:
Neale ---> Boak
Clark ---> Mills
Is Mills the best sub $530k defender option? I have Stewart, Laird, Docherty and Short. Or do I go Walsh at $581k and bring in a Crisp/Bowes/Houston/Lever type (that price range is very tempting, as is Jiath)?
Thinking:
Neale ---> Boak
Clark ---> Mills
Is Mills the best sub $530k defender option? I have Stewart, Laird, Docherty and Short. Or do I go Walsh at $581k and bring in a Crisp/Bowes/Houston/Lever type (that price range is very tempting, as is Jiath)?
Can't see myself even getting close to fully upgrading 😢
Bench is :-
Highmore , Jones
Berry , McNeil , Fyfe
Fullarton
Rowe , McCreery
3 played this round
Upgrades require on field
Mansell
Gulden , Powell , JordOn
Flynn , Meek
Warner , Fantasia
Daniel & Cripps underperforming
Oh well , time to have some fun
Dunkley - > Nankervis
Gulden - > Heppell
Then try and upgrade Warner & Rowe the following Round
Bench is :-
Highmore , Jones
Berry , McNeil , Fyfe
Fullarton
Rowe , McCreery
3 played this round
Upgrades require on field
Mansell
Gulden , Powell , JordOn
Flynn , Meek
Warner , Fantasia
Daniel & Cripps underperforming
Oh well , time to have some fun
Dunkley - > Nankervis
Gulden - > Heppell
Then try and upgrade Warner & Rowe the following Round
Probably not in SC for me. He's still good value in RDT but will probably struggle to attain a good SC ratio with his backline role of cheap marks and kicks. Although JZ is doing pretty well in that area I guess haha. Still i think he is unlikely to make a good M8 in my opinion and probably not quite enough meat on the bone as a stepping stone.
He obviously had a great day this arvo and was my personal hero in RDT but couldn't recommend him as a Supercoach option now in all good faith. I would expect him to average around 90 which would be poor M8 material for mine. Would rather seek value options at F5/F6 myself. Brayshaw would be my own cutoff for a M8 selection although I realise he costs about $90K more.
He obviously had a great day this arvo and was my personal hero in RDT but couldn't recommend him as a Supercoach option now in all good faith. I would expect him to average around 90 which would be poor M8 material for mine. Would rather seek value options at F5/F6 myself. Brayshaw would be my own cutoff for a M8 selection although I realise he costs about $90K more.
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Rookie Thoughts - Round 7
Any player <210k because at this point we're desperate...
In points scored order...
Backs
Kosi (201k) - This feels like his best possible game. I think you either have him or just keep walking.
Menadue (201k) - Scored quite well in both games but not worth the premium for mine.
Prior (150k) - If you didn't grab him last week when half the backs were dead, I doubt he did anything to change your opinion.
Highmore (117k) - His teammates doing everything to get him back in by being terrible... Obviously the JS is terrible but the scoring and price are so tempting if he's back.
Mansell (134k) - I think he's lucky if he hangs onto his spot, if he does the role remains alright and the price is still doable.
Jones (140k) - I doubt he's back but if he was he's the pick.
Frederick (124k) - He was excellent but you just can't go early on a Port guy right now, probably going to force Jones to win the spot back if he plays like that again and again. Wait until next week.
Murphy (124k) - Was also really impressive to me given how bad the Pies were. Role solid. Still, give him a week for sure, needs to cement as can't afford rookies not playing now.
Stocker (187k) - Going to need to play a lot better next week (fantasy wise) to be worth that premium. I thought he played well though.
Joyce (177k) - Not worth the premium on that, wait a week at best.
Mids
Scott/McNeil/Perkins/Phillips/Bruhn/Lazzaro/Zuthrie/Brockman - If you don't already have them, none have shown enough to justify paying the premium on them over the other guys who haven't shown enough... Phillips and Perkins the pick of the group, Phillips in particular as I expect he moves to the midfield eventually... but don't.
Macrae (126k) - Didn't do enough on the weekend but he's the clear pick of the crop. I've listed him in the mids as I think he's actually needed more there because there is just nothing here.
Rantall (124k) - He did a couple of nice things. That's also all he did. Gave no reason to indicate he's a go early rookie, especially with JDG likely back next week. If he can hang around and build on it, he's got some potential.
Ruck
Campbell (164k) - Actually played alright for North and is holding his spot right now. Could conceivably score a decent score one week, similar to Cameron this week for example, but hard to see anyone really having this need.
Thilthorpe (203k) - He was excellent but when the Hawks put TOB on him he went missing and was well beaten. I don't think teams will disrespect him to the level that the Hawks did of putting Scrimshaw and Jiath on him, similar to how McDonald scored great until Brisbane put Andrews on him in his first game and reckon that the last 1.5 quarters is a more realistic indicator. He was great though and showed some nice tricks, almost on the wing at times as well. It's hard to see him being worth the premium unless he backs up the debut as that one score is basically in and out and his price is so high it will barely move the needle if he's a 40 the next two. Will be watching very closely though.
Treacy (108k) - Still available for those seeking flexibility and disaster event scoring! Freo won so good chance he holds his spot.
Forwards
Scott/Jones/Frampton/Perkins/T. Berry/Brockman/Waterman/Jones/Fullarton/Langdon/Stone/Ruscoe - That some of these guys started outside the rookie price and are now in it should sum them up. The rest you know about, that first jump was about all the cash they make right now. You either have them and don't want them or you should avoid them
Flanders (192k) - He was actually really good for the Suns, note that his first score is a sub game so the 62 a better reflection. That said, I can't justify the premium on him over the next couple of guys but I say that knowing he has every chance of being the best of the trio but I like the roles of the other two more, he had a great midfield forward role in the first half but almost exclusively forward the 2nd half.
Bosenvulagi (176k) - Would love to see him get named alongside Hall this week as that's by far my biggest concern on him. Playing as a rebounding half back and showing some really good signs with a solid 67 average. The ball is going to be down there a lot, he's a mature aged guy compared to some of the kids and he looks to take the game on. Basically I think he can sustain it. Would make 150k at a 70 average which I think he's capable of but in that team and in that role there's no reason he can't spike a 100+ score. I think he's my favourite rookie option this week despite the premium...
Farrar (184k) - And if Atu isn't my favourite it's because of this guy. Played a hard lockdown role on Heeney in this game and still scored 59, such is his want to run and carry. Popped an 83 last week without such a good matchup for him. I don't think he'd get De Goey, very different matchup, and the rest of the Pies forwards are more of an opportunity than challenge. Think his average is a very fair reflection and it wouldn't shock me if he pushes high 70s even into mid 80s, Suns get a lot of ball down back, like to switch and retain it there and he's probably the best run and carry option.
Bergman (193k) - You should have him by now, he's a decent ratio (and he's playing well) from going bang. I think you're probably better off with the above two guys at lower prices but Bergman looks a solid 70s target right now as well. Given most people would be ditching Dunkley, and thus needing to field this rookie pick, I think that's an important element and that the premium on these three may actually be worth it still.
Ranking
1a - Atu Bosenvulagi
1b - Jy Farrar
2a - Miles Bergman - On-Field
2b - Finlay Macrae - Bench
3. Lachie Jones - Unlikely to be named.
4. Thomas Highmore - If named.
5. Josh Treacy - Purely utility
6. Tom Campbell - Combination of utility and cash generation potential
Any player <210k because at this point we're desperate...
In points scored order...
Backs
Kosi (201k) - This feels like his best possible game. I think you either have him or just keep walking.
Menadue (201k) - Scored quite well in both games but not worth the premium for mine.
Prior (150k) - If you didn't grab him last week when half the backs were dead, I doubt he did anything to change your opinion.
Highmore (117k) - His teammates doing everything to get him back in by being terrible... Obviously the JS is terrible but the scoring and price are so tempting if he's back.
Mansell (134k) - I think he's lucky if he hangs onto his spot, if he does the role remains alright and the price is still doable.
Jones (140k) - I doubt he's back but if he was he's the pick.
Frederick (124k) - He was excellent but you just can't go early on a Port guy right now, probably going to force Jones to win the spot back if he plays like that again and again. Wait until next week.
Murphy (124k) - Was also really impressive to me given how bad the Pies were. Role solid. Still, give him a week for sure, needs to cement as can't afford rookies not playing now.
Stocker (187k) - Going to need to play a lot better next week (fantasy wise) to be worth that premium. I thought he played well though.
Joyce (177k) - Not worth the premium on that, wait a week at best.
Mids
Scott/McNeil/Perkins/Phillips/Bruhn/Lazzaro/Zuthrie/Brockman - If you don't already have them, none have shown enough to justify paying the premium on them over the other guys who haven't shown enough... Phillips and Perkins the pick of the group, Phillips in particular as I expect he moves to the midfield eventually... but don't.
Macrae (126k) - Didn't do enough on the weekend but he's the clear pick of the crop. I've listed him in the mids as I think he's actually needed more there because there is just nothing here.
Rantall (124k) - He did a couple of nice things. That's also all he did. Gave no reason to indicate he's a go early rookie, especially with JDG likely back next week. If he can hang around and build on it, he's got some potential.
Ruck
Campbell (164k) - Actually played alright for North and is holding his spot right now. Could conceivably score a decent score one week, similar to Cameron this week for example, but hard to see anyone really having this need.
Thilthorpe (203k) - He was excellent but when the Hawks put TOB on him he went missing and was well beaten. I don't think teams will disrespect him to the level that the Hawks did of putting Scrimshaw and Jiath on him, similar to how McDonald scored great until Brisbane put Andrews on him in his first game and reckon that the last 1.5 quarters is a more realistic indicator. He was great though and showed some nice tricks, almost on the wing at times as well. It's hard to see him being worth the premium unless he backs up the debut as that one score is basically in and out and his price is so high it will barely move the needle if he's a 40 the next two. Will be watching very closely though.
Treacy (108k) - Still available for those seeking flexibility and disaster event scoring! Freo won so good chance he holds his spot.
Forwards
Scott/Jones/Frampton/Perkins/T. Berry/Brockman/Waterman/Jones/Fullarton/Langdon/Stone/Ruscoe - That some of these guys started outside the rookie price and are now in it should sum them up. The rest you know about, that first jump was about all the cash they make right now. You either have them and don't want them or you should avoid them
Flanders (192k) - He was actually really good for the Suns, note that his first score is a sub game so the 62 a better reflection. That said, I can't justify the premium on him over the next couple of guys but I say that knowing he has every chance of being the best of the trio but I like the roles of the other two more, he had a great midfield forward role in the first half but almost exclusively forward the 2nd half.
Bosenvulagi (176k) - Would love to see him get named alongside Hall this week as that's by far my biggest concern on him. Playing as a rebounding half back and showing some really good signs with a solid 67 average. The ball is going to be down there a lot, he's a mature aged guy compared to some of the kids and he looks to take the game on. Basically I think he can sustain it. Would make 150k at a 70 average which I think he's capable of but in that team and in that role there's no reason he can't spike a 100+ score. I think he's my favourite rookie option this week despite the premium...
Farrar (184k) - And if Atu isn't my favourite it's because of this guy. Played a hard lockdown role on Heeney in this game and still scored 59, such is his want to run and carry. Popped an 83 last week without such a good matchup for him. I don't think he'd get De Goey, very different matchup, and the rest of the Pies forwards are more of an opportunity than challenge. Think his average is a very fair reflection and it wouldn't shock me if he pushes high 70s even into mid 80s, Suns get a lot of ball down back, like to switch and retain it there and he's probably the best run and carry option.
Bergman (193k) - You should have him by now, he's a decent ratio (and he's playing well) from going bang. I think you're probably better off with the above two guys at lower prices but Bergman looks a solid 70s target right now as well. Given most people would be ditching Dunkley, and thus needing to field this rookie pick, I think that's an important element and that the premium on these three may actually be worth it still.
Ranking
1a - Atu Bosenvulagi
1b - Jy Farrar
2a - Miles Bergman - On-Field
2b - Finlay Macrae - Bench
3. Lachie Jones - Unlikely to be named.
4. Thomas Highmore - If named.
5. Josh Treacy - Purely utility
6. Tom Campbell - Combination of utility and cash generation potential
Further to Quasi's great points, you've also got to factor in the lack of Ridley this week who will eat into all of the point sources for Heppell. He's a far better intercept player and a far better ball user and unlike Laverde when Ridley takes the kick-ins he will look to do damage instead of chip sideways to Heppell.
I think the projections on SC are pretty fair, a bit on the low side, and they have him making a further 50k, I think he probably makes closer to 75-100k on my slightly higher projections but that's not really enough to justify the trade I don't think and it only takes a poor score (70s) to derail that higher projection.
I think the projections on SC are pretty fair, a bit on the low side, and they have him making a further 50k, I think he probably makes closer to 75-100k on my slightly higher projections but that's not really enough to justify the trade I don't think and it only takes a poor score (70s) to derail that higher projection.
awkward price atm for me, only had 460k left for a forward with trades metnioned above
only have 947k if i trade dunkley and gulden
so cant get 2 premium keepers, so trying to find different ways, that i can do an upgrade
sidey definately will be looked at over next couple weeks same as marshal
edit: maybe ur onto something
only have 947k if i trade dunkley and gulden
so cant get 2 premium keepers, so trying to find different ways, that i can do an upgrade
sidey definately will be looked at over next couple weeks same as marshal
edit: maybe ur onto something