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- Thread starter jel
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I've prepared some driver and teams break evens going into round 5. Almost impossible to find value outside of the top teams/drivers. I've also provided some thoughts on what to do with Tsunoda. Keen to hear what other team managers are thinking to do with him.
Drivers: Ocon 12, Russell 19, Latifi 19, Kimi 22, Gio 24, Schumacher 25, Mazepin 25, Bottas 27, Leclerc 33, Tsunoda 36, Perez 42, Dan Ric 47, Alonso 52, Sainz 55, Gasly 55, Stroll 55, Vettel 57, Max 58, Norris 66, Hamilton 92
Teams: Williams 19, Haas 27, Ferrari 37, Alfa 43, Red Bull 46, Alpine 58, McLaren 70, Mercedes 74, Alpha 79, Aston 96
Those that have gone heavy with Ferrari and Red Bull cars wouldn't see too much reason to trade based on the above, but Mercedes will likely get their BE too, so expect to see them continue to get more expensive. Bottas would achieve his BE if he qualifies 3rd or better, regardless of his race outcome.
What could we do with Tsunoda?
Hold - He cost minimum value to begin with and can't lose more than $700K. Is he worth trading?
Bank the $700K - Both Williams and Haas drivers are already at minimum value. Could trade one in and set and forget that spot for a bit.
Same Price, Lower BE - Both Alfa drivers should be in price reach and both have BE's they could achieve on a good day.
Early Upgrade - Ocon should be relatively risk free for the next round and hopefully one more, but would you prefer to upgrade elsewhere?
Driver/Team Switcheroo - Downgrade a team to Williams/Haas and maybe Tsunoda becomes Leclerc/Perez
Drivers: Ocon 12, Russell 19, Latifi 19, Kimi 22, Gio 24, Schumacher 25, Mazepin 25, Bottas 27, Leclerc 33, Tsunoda 36, Perez 42, Dan Ric 47, Alonso 52, Sainz 55, Gasly 55, Stroll 55, Vettel 57, Max 58, Norris 66, Hamilton 92
Teams: Williams 19, Haas 27, Ferrari 37, Alfa 43, Red Bull 46, Alpine 58, McLaren 70, Mercedes 74, Alpha 79, Aston 96
Those that have gone heavy with Ferrari and Red Bull cars wouldn't see too much reason to trade based on the above, but Mercedes will likely get their BE too, so expect to see them continue to get more expensive. Bottas would achieve his BE if he qualifies 3rd or better, regardless of his race outcome.
What could we do with Tsunoda?
Hold - He cost minimum value to begin with and can't lose more than $700K. Is he worth trading?
Bank the $700K - Both Williams and Haas drivers are already at minimum value. Could trade one in and set and forget that spot for a bit.
Same Price, Lower BE - Both Alfa drivers should be in price reach and both have BE's they could achieve on a good day.
Early Upgrade - Ocon should be relatively risk free for the next round and hopefully one more, but would you prefer to upgrade elsewhere?
Driver/Team Switcheroo - Downgrade a team to Williams/Haas and maybe Tsunoda becomes Leclerc/Perez
Really good analysis but I think the only reasonable option is to hold. I do think he's found the step up harder than maybe we had all anticipated, but he's still in a way better car than anyone else at the price. All it's going to take is one good race, though, and he should make a few mil over the course of three races. Additionally, the next race is Monaco and I find it hard to see too many overtaking points on offer. That being said, I did briefly consider the Alfas but I think if the next race were anywhere else, it would be easier to justify.
Bottas has a really juicy BE but the only spots I could be talked out of at the moment are Tsunoda and Norris, and there's not enough value to get there. Red Bull down to McLaren or Alpine feels like a waste and there's nothing below Ferrari that I want any part of.
Bottas has a really juicy BE but the only spots I could be talked out of at the moment are Tsunoda and Norris, and there's not enough value to get there. Red Bull down to McLaren or Alpine feels like a waste and there's nothing below Ferrari that I want any part of.
On a more general F1 note, anybody else find it interesting that Bottas didn't let Hamilton past immediately? It could just be nothing, or it could be taken as further signs that Bottas won't be at Mercedes next season and perhaps he wants to try to maximise his results to help him get a new seat next season.
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Think Bottas stated late last season he wouldn't be moving over easily for Hamilton in the future after some team orders calls at Mercedes didn't go his way.
I don't think Bottas will be there regardless. Russell has to move on from Williams, and Mercedes risk losing him if they don't promote him. They won't want to do that.
I don't think Bottas will be there regardless. Russell has to move on from Williams, and Mercedes risk losing him if they don't promote him. They won't want to do that.
Leaning towards the below trade options:
1. Just the one trade, Tsundoa to Ocon (likely adds more cash gen than holding Tsunoda)
2. Go all out with three trades. Ferrari to Williams, Norris to Bottas and Tsunoda to Ocon.
Excluding Imola (Ferrari really got bonus points there from Sainz moving up during the race, which would be tough in Monaco), Ferrari have been scoring 49 to 69 points, which would give them a potential $ earning range of 300K to 700K.
Again excluding Imola, Bottas has scored between 90 and 130 points, which would give him a potential $ earning range of $1.5M to $2.3M.
If Williams scored 0 in Monaco, they would lose 400K. If Bottas has pace in practice he will be hard to say no to.
1. Just the one trade, Tsundoa to Ocon (likely adds more cash gen than holding Tsunoda)
2. Go all out with three trades. Ferrari to Williams, Norris to Bottas and Tsunoda to Ocon.
Excluding Imola (Ferrari really got bonus points there from Sainz moving up during the race, which would be tough in Monaco), Ferrari have been scoring 49 to 69 points, which would give them a potential $ earning range of 300K to 700K.
Again excluding Imola, Bottas has scored between 90 and 130 points, which would give him a potential $ earning range of $1.5M to $2.3M.
If Williams scored 0 in Monaco, they would lose 400K. If Bottas has pace in practice he will be hard to say no to.
Right, Bottas is clearly in too good a position to ignore this week. In order to bring him in, I can just about sneak it through with this:
OUT: Norris, Leclerc, Tsunoda
IN: Bottas, Sainz, rookie
I'm actually 0.1 off getting Gio which would have been an excellent result, but alas, looks like I'm picking Schumi or something and hoping for a race of attrition!
Obviously the other way to do it would be to forfeit a Ferrari or Red Bull car but to me they're clearly 2nd and 3rd best and I think any movement there is too steep a drop.
OUT: Norris, Leclerc, Tsunoda
IN: Bottas, Sainz, rookie
I'm actually 0.1 off getting Gio which would have been an excellent result, but alas, looks like I'm picking Schumi or something and hoping for a race of attrition!
Obviously the other way to do it would be to forfeit a Ferrari or Red Bull car but to me they're clearly 2nd and 3rd best and I think any movement there is too steep a drop.
Still one more practice session on Saturday to go, but the results from Thursday have created a dilemma. Chase the Monaco points or chase the lower break even's. Norris to Sainz is an easy enough trade to make financially, but Sainz's BE is 55 so he has to deliver.
The situation looking for a cheap driver is worse. Ocon's BE of 12 would require a qualy and race result of 9th (assuming nobody can pass here). Gasly looks quick but with a BE of 55 he realistically has to finish 5th or better to not lose money.
It may come down to which cheap driver can lose the least. The Williams and Haas drivers cant lose any money and Ocon and Gio cant lose more than $0.3K.
The situation looking for a cheap driver is worse. Ocon's BE of 12 would require a qualy and race result of 9th (assuming nobody can pass here). Gasly looks quick but with a BE of 55 he realistically has to finish 5th or better to not lose money.
It may come down to which cheap driver can lose the least. The Williams and Haas drivers cant lose any money and Ocon and Gio cant lose more than $0.3K.
Just gone for Norris to Leclerc. My team is a bit of a mess, relying on two rookie drivers and neither of the Mercedes drivers, but the cars are OK. I'll try fixing it after Monaco, which is a race where you pretty much know the final results from qualifying, unless someone stu*** up their start.
Verstappen, Leclerc, Tsunoda, Russell
Mercedes, Red Bull, Ferrari, Ferrari
Might give Leclerc the C at his home race, just for fun. I don't think the Ferraris stay top of the timesheets in qualifying, which means they don't win, but I'm not catching up points this season anyway. Expecting 3rd or 4th behind the usual suspects.
Verstappen, Leclerc, Tsunoda, Russell
Mercedes, Red Bull, Ferrari, Ferrari
Might give Leclerc the C at his home race, just for fun. I don't think the Ferraris stay top of the timesheets in qualifying, which means they don't win, but I'm not catching up points this season anyway. Expecting 3rd or 4th behind the usual suspects.