Discussion 2021 Round 10: Teams & In Game Discussion
- Thread starter KLo30
- Start date
Is captaining Murphy still the correct play based on expected returns?
Assume:
- Murphy's full-game average is 60;
- chance of being activated is 30% (I've just pulled this figure out, have no idea what it actually is);
- An even chance of being activated throughout each quarter (ie. Murphy's average if activated is 30);
- A premium (eg. Ridley) could replace Murphy at D6 for 100 points;
- Premo captain is 120 points (eg. Grundy);
- Oliver VC is 204.
Expected value of Captain Murphy = 0.3 x (30+30) + 0.7 (204 + 100) = 230.8 points (first 30 pts is Murphy's average, second 30 pts is the captain score if activated)
Expected value of Captain 120 = 1.0 x (120+100) points = 220 points.
So is Captain Murphy the correct play in the long run, based on the above? Or is my maths wrong?
Assume:
- Murphy's full-game average is 60;
- chance of being activated is 30% (I've just pulled this figure out, have no idea what it actually is);
- An even chance of being activated throughout each quarter (ie. Murphy's average if activated is 30);
- A premium (eg. Ridley) could replace Murphy at D6 for 100 points;
- Premo captain is 120 points (eg. Grundy);
- Oliver VC is 204.
Expected value of Captain Murphy = 0.3 x (30+30) + 0.7 (204 + 100) = 230.8 points (first 30 pts is Murphy's average, second 30 pts is the captain score if activated)
Expected value of Captain 120 = 1.0 x (120+100) points = 220 points.
So is Captain Murphy the correct play in the long run, based on the above? Or is my maths wrong?
For those that are considering risking the no sub activation
Run the numbers
Just say your emergency scores 50 (or has scored 50, or Jones scores 50)
If either Bergman or Murphy come on
You lose the difference between your sub & Berg/Murphy (say they score 15)
50-15=35
-35+15x2 (twice as they would have been on bench originally) = -5(total)** (Edit)
Compared to
50+1xGrundy (say 125)= 180
Compared to
50+ Oliver (204) = 254
Risking 185 points (loss) for an extra 74, not sure if that ROI is worth it (approximate numbers) - exact score difference would depend on E, Your replacement’s score & what Murphy/Bergman actually score, your captain’s score (probably Grundy)
Ps maths could be wrong, someone correct me if I got it wrong
Run the numbers
Just say your emergency scores 50 (or has scored 50, or Jones scores 50)
If either Bergman or Murphy come on
You lose the difference between your sub & Berg/Murphy (say they score 15)
50-15=35
-35+15x2 (twice as they would have been on bench originally) = -5(total)** (Edit)
Compared to
50+1xGrundy (say 125)= 180
Compared to
50+ Oliver (204) = 254
Risking 185 points (loss) for an extra 74, not sure if that ROI is worth it (approximate numbers) - exact score difference would depend on E, Your replacement’s score & what Murphy/Bergman actually score, your captain’s score (probably Grundy)
Ps maths could be wrong, someone correct me if I got it wrong
Not sure about the maths there. For me it’s an all or nothing swing. If you play Murphy and he comes on for a 30 you lose the difference between his score and that of the player you’ve shifted to the bench (in my case Jones). So if Jones scores 60, you lose 30.
On top of that, you lose the difference between 30 and the score of the player you were going to captain. So using your example, if Grundy scores 120, you lose 90. So that’s a total loss of 120 v upside of 84 in getting Oliver’s 204 v Grundy.
If you’re benching Ridley, then the downside is even worse.
Basically there’s a lot more to lose than gain, so if you’re at all risk averse, you kinda just gotta suck it up.
On top of that, you lose the difference between 30 and the score of the player you were going to captain. So using your example, if Grundy scores 120, you lose 90. So that’s a total loss of 120 v upside of 84 in getting Oliver’s 204 v Grundy.
If you’re benching Ridley, then the downside is even worse.
Basically there’s a lot more to lose than gain, so if you’re at all risk averse, you kinda just gotta suck it up.
