Discussion 2021 Round 10: Teams & In Game Discussion

[meataxe]

For those still holding onto hope for a late out, there is the option of putting the C on one of the blokes from the last game eg:
- Ridley;
- Ziebell;
- Hall;
- Waterman (this would be helpful).

I've got 20 minutes to deliberate. Deciding to stick with L Jones at D7 for now.

 

[Bomber18]

Not sure about the maths there. For me it’s an all or nothing swing. If you play Murphy and he comes on for a 30 you lose the difference between his score and that of the player you’ve shifted to the bench (in my case Jones). So if Jones scores 60, you lose 30.

On top of that, you lose the difference between 30 and the score of the player you were going to captain. So using your example, if Grundy scores 120, you lose 90. So that’s a total loss of 120 v upside of 84 in getting Oliver’s 204 v Grundy.

If you’re benching Ridley, then the downside is even worse.

Basically there’s a lot more to lose than gain, so if you’re at all risk averse, you kinda just gotta suck it up.

Agree with this.

Med sub could also score closer to 15 and Grundy could score closer to 140-150. With those numbers, you can add 45 to the potential loss side and subtract 30 from the potential upside (ie 165 v 54).

 

[Professor]

@Herbie66 key words, defence and limited game time.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1396327767399190530

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/JonoBaruch/status/1396327767399190530

 

[Wheedus]

Agree with this.

Med sub could also score closer to 15 and Grundy could score closer to 140-150. With those numbers, you can add 45 to the potential loss side and subtract 30 from the potential upside (ie 165 v 54).

Yep - way too much downside. Using Jones doesn’t stack up. Anyone contemplating benching Ridley is mad.

 

[BigRuss]

Kelly having a handy quarter here. Quality player.

 

[Bones]

If Grundy was a late out:
- take Flynn’s score
- stick the C on Grundy
- take Oliver VC

Grundy would be wise to avoid any SC players between now and 3.20pm

Where’s Tonya Harding when you need her?

 

[Dazza]

Keep going Taranto

 

[Ricky Bobby]

I'd offer to start therapy fund for Crows fans in here to donate for you mate but this should be good enough therapy anyway: You barrack for Melbourne and they’ve started the season 9-1!

Chill mate.. I’m joking 😉

 

[Herbie66]

Another rookie who's going to get his cash gen completely ruined
The D6 position this year has been an utter disaster. And that's an understatement.

Butts & Koschitze have been very good rookies.

Even Prior before Friday night has still made over $ 100k as well.

Buckley & Idun have been quite reasonable as well.

 

[AngryAnt]

Just going to stick the C on Grundy and hope for a 140+ here, way too much risk involved the other way, especially with a team that has Adams and De Goey in it.

 

[Wheedus]

I need @Athomas to put some serious voodoo on Grundy in the pre-game...

 

[mike89]

Very hard to ignore Josh Kelly any longer. Think he has to come in for me post bye. Too many question marks around the other R12 mids, like do the Geelong mids roles change with Danger back? The other candidate would be Touk Miller but Kelly is still loads cheaper.

 

[Herbie66]

@Herbie66 key words, defence and limited game time.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1396327767399190530

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/JonoBaruch/status/1396327767399190530

Appreciate the info , will try and track his progress in the VFL over the next few rounds.

 

[stephen]

Oh I'm aware and I think that is generous, comes in final quarter and scores 20! It's just you don't get many shots at 2600 pre-bye.

With Clayton C I can get there. Anyone got predictions over 2600 in their leagues?

I'd say you're one of the few who should actually be considering it. If you genuinely have a shot at the weekly, go for it. But gee ... good luck!

EDIT: I assume you are aware of this but just in case, this is the great work of @nicohighscore analysing the current top projected scores for the round, to see if you think you have a shot at it.

 

[randomcliche]

for those paniking about the math
https://www.afl.com.au/news/616433/sub-standard-worst-hit-clubs-best-performers-off-the-pine
sub gets activated about half the time so far this season. I'm rolling the dice, and saying the better team doesn't get hit with an injury.
#fingers crossed

 

[randomcliche]

Interestingly, Pies activate 4/9, Power 6/9....don't know whether to read into that or not...

 

[Peter56]

 

[AngryAnt]

Interestingly, Pies activate 4/9, Power 6/9....don't know whether to read into that or not...

Even 44% of the time is a lot, too risky imo. **** Nathan Buckley.

 

[Connoisseur]

T Taranto:
Disposal efficiency currently at 77%
If he maintains or improves on his current percentage, it will be his highest in a non final since RD10 2018.

 

[Bomber18]

for those paniking about the math
https://www.afl.com.au/news/616433/sub-standard-worst-hit-clubs-best-performers-off-the-pine
sub gets activated about half the time so far this season. I'm rolling the dice, and saying the better team doesn't get hit with an injury.
#fingers crossed

Yeah, I'd roll the dice in your position given you are a chance at the weekly. Good luck!