Position SC 2021: Midfielder Discussion

[wogitalia]

Yeah I'm definitely looking at Petracca as an upgrade this week, at a very nice price.

Petracca, Steele, Fyfe and Cerra the 4 I'm eyeing off, I'd have gone Oliver at 610k but 653k is just too much given the first three should more or less match his average and the other will be close enough for 250k less (that's Danger instead of Heeney money!), just paying for the 200 I'm not getting at this point sadly...

The question is whether to take the punt on Cerra or pay the premium. Fyfe's durability scares me as always. Steele the safe pick but not really going great lately and the team is playing some really ordinary footy. Petracca is explosive but also not scoring well right now. Both Steele and Petracca are scoring what I expect Cerra to score over the past month so it's hard to justify the premium.

Will be a huge decision!

 

[freowho]

yeah think I’m happy to take the risk. He is attacking the last 6 games and his ceiling is fantastic. Jelly and Taranto today are more popular choices but in a great win had 102 each, Boak a 96. I think Miller has less competition for points and is one of champion data’s it giys for 2021. I’m often too late on jumping on to guys who break out like Steele last year, Lyons last year etc. Miller is doing it again and I want to gain a little pod edge

Team with Miller and Heeney coming in is this now

Docherty short lloyd Stewart laird l Jones
Highmore n Murphy

Merrett Bont Steele titch Miller Macrae Oliver Rcd
Poulter berry Fyfe

Grundy Gawn Flynn

Heeney Dusty ziebell impey Robertson Bergman
Mcreery waterman

Touk Touk. Chuka chuka chuka chuka chuka chuka chuka chuka...................
I'm on the train.
I have no rnd 12 mids. Duncan injured, Guthrie injured and Danger to come back. Taranto's a butcher. Apparently Jelly is the new Dusty. Titch is a flat track bully nowadays. Old man Boak got rested in game last year. Is Barry Cable still a shinboner? Same height as Caleb Daniel by the way.

 

[freowho]

Petracca, Steele, Fyfe and Cerra the 4 I'm eyeing off, I'd have gone Oliver at 610k but 653k is just too much given the first three should more or less match his average and the other will be close enough for 250k less (that's Danger instead of Heeney money!), just paying for the 200 I'm not getting at this point sadly...

The question is whether to take the punt on Cerra or pay the premium. Fyfe's durability scares me as always. Steele the safe pick but not really going great lately and the team is playing some really ordinary footy. Petracca is explosive but also not scoring well right now. Both Steele and Petracca are scoring what I expect Cerra to score over the past month so it's hard to justify the premium.

Will be a huge decision!

I agree. Macrae and Oliver the only 2 superpremos and Oliver would feel like chasing last weeks points. Then there are a dozen or maybe more who could fill the other spots so no need to overpay. The new rules seemed to have flattened the curve which provides for a lot more variety.

 

[Montyjnr]

I agree. Macrae and Oliver the only 2 superpremos and Oliver would feel like chasing last weeks points. Then there are a dozen or maybe more who could fill the other spots so no need to overpay. The new rules seemed to have flattened the curve which provides for a lot more variety.

I don't think you can put every premium outside of Macrae & Oliver in the same basket.

Petracca last 4:
78, 87, 101, 116

Lyons last 4:
122, 145, 138, 129

Petracca's best score over the last month can't even match Lyons' worst score in the same period. There is a clear class difference here and the people that cheap out on Trac will seemingly lose a bunch of points to the people that spend a bit more on Lyons each week.

 

[freowho]

I don't think you can put every premium outside of Macrae & Oliver in the same basket.

Petracca last 4:
78, 87, 101, 116

Lyons last 4:
122, 145, 138, 129

Petracca's best score over the last month can't even match Lyons' worst score in the same period. There is a clear class difference here and the people that cheap out on Trac will seemingly lose a bunch of points to the people that spend a bit more on Lyons each week.

I didn't have Trac in my thinking but Lyons will regress when Neale comes back. The main point I was trying to get across is that I don't think you have to overpay for a mid.

 

[Tamuhawk]

Round 10 CBAs and kick in stats.

https://www.afl.com.au/news/620443/fantasy-stats-every-clubs-cbas-and-kick-ins-for-r10

 

[Lost In The Sky]

As per usual, have replaced the Fantasy scores with SC scores from the article Tamuhawk posted...

 

[Lost In The Sky]

 

[Lost In The Sky]

 

[Lost In The Sky]

 

[Lost In The Sky]

 

[Professor]

I'd be asking the same thing.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1397016511907131396

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/aflratings/status/1397016511907131396

 

[Herbie66]

@Professor

Are you ready to buy a ticket on the Western Bulldogs # 7 ride this season ?

 

[Herbie66]

Best $$$ makers after 10 Rounds

JordOn 242,200
Powell 197,300
Scott * 179,300
Gulden 165,600
Drew 153,300
McNeil 151,100
Parish 127,000
Heppell 122,000
Berry 115,500
Robertson * 113,100
Poulter * 111,100
Buckley * 111,000

 

[Professor]

@Professor

Are you ready to buy a ticket on the Western Bulldogs # 7 ride this season ?

or Bailey Smith 🤫

 

[Herbie66]

or Bailey Smith 🤫

one of them will benefit, just a matter of working out which one

 

[WindyHillWizard]

I'd be asking the same thing.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1397016511907131396

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/aflratings/status/1397016511907131396

Could he be an option for those considering Cerra? Much better bye. Seems to be breaking out with increased mid minutes.

 

[whiteTiga2k]

how is Cerra getting all his points? is he playing off the wing? 2 CBA doesn't look great

 

[Montyjnr]

I didn't have Trac in my thinking but Lyons will regress when Neale comes back. The main point I was trying to get across is that I don't think you have to overpay for a mid.

Yeah I understand the point you're making, but I feel it can often be a bit careless to just throw a blanket over Bont, Walsh, Steele, Merrett, Mitchell, Boak, Fyfe, Guthrie, Kelly, Lyons, Duncan etc. and say "You can't go wrong - they are all guns and should score similar so just choose the value guys".

Hindsight at the end of this season will show us there will be clear standouts above the rest in that group on the run home and the choice you make could be the difference between 50K contention or not.

For instance, 4 weeks ago I had the choice between the 2 Brownlow favourites - Petracca @ 598K & Bont @ 602K. I thought there wasn't much between them and chose Petracca - well that decision has already cost me 167 points and their price difference has blown out from 4K to 133K. Season defining selection right there and I regret not putting more thought into the choice.

It's a similar situation with those who overlooked Cripps' poor performance against St Kilda in the Community Series because "the game meant nothing and he is an underpriced proven gun". More thought should have gone into that selection as well perhaps?

Anyway, I just think it's healthy to "hyper-analyse" premium midfield selections to give yourself the best chance of winning this game, because I feel we all tend to overlook how often choosing the wrong midfield "guns" ruins your season...

 

[pizza safety]

I don't think you can put every premium outside of Macrae & Oliver in the same basket.

Petracca last 4:
78, 87, 101, 116

Lyons last 4:
122, 145, 138, 129

Petracca's best score over the last month can't even match Lyons' worst score in the same period. There is a clear class difference here and the people that cheap out on Trac will seemingly lose a bunch of points to the people that spend a bit more on Lyons each week.

Petracca's fitness is greatly improved but I still don't think it's at the level of some of the league's best mids. Last year he got some benefit from shorter quarters and this has now been taken away from him. He also plays such an explosive and power-based game style that he is bound to fatigue. Reckon he will be a better pick in a couple more years when he's even fitter.

Lyons isn't my kind of pick, but I can certainly see it working. I always see potential for regression when a player is averaging career best stats at his age, and after taking a significant leap last year as well, outliers always exist and he certainly could be one (his whole career is an outlier) but he has more risk than someone I want at that price. - by risk I mean he drops down to a 105-110 avg player from now.