Position SC 2021: Midfielder Discussion
- Thread starter THCLT
- Start date
Past performance is not an indicator of future performance.
The person buying now does not get any of those points from Lyons, they're gone, he simply pays for them.
For example... at the end of round 4
Martin - 158, 120, 85 and 88 for a 112.75 average
McCluggage - 66, 86, 88 and 103 for an average of 85.75
Averages since 81 (and a missed game) and 126.
Now that doesn't mean that we should ignore the past performance but it's definitely worth considering if there is a potential reason that could close that gap.
I also have to say that this season I think there is a very good case to say that Lyons and Bont certainly belong in the group of 2 from the original post. Bont has the most golden ticket this year, his scores go well beyond his stats and it's a fool's game to ignore that, every season there is an anointed one and this year it's clearly Bont. Lyons is basically the workmanlike guy who just does everything and as a result is scoring great and to be fair, Guthrie belonged in this group and would be in it but for the injury on the weekend and you can definitely make a case that Parish has been in it since the midfield move and will stay in it.
I do think you can throw a blanket over the rest of the group though and given that, realistically value is a strong tiebreaker on a group of guys that could average 125 from here or could average 100. Byes are also a good breaker. Picking the midfielders is always hard, a couple of tags or non-tags can change the equation, like who had Carlton and St Kilda, both who have proven good big body taggers, choosing to completely ignore Bont for the entire game and essentially challenge him to see how many touches he could get? Meanwhile Hawthorn tag Walsh or Freo hard tag Merrett (both teams that hadn't tagged all season). Throw in random coaches throwing guys forward for a month and what not and really it's as much luck as good management.
Hell... as a guy who was forced to pay top dollar for Gawn this year and has copped absolute puss every game since including a couple of terrible captain scores I know how painful it is to pay the premium and not get it.
My personal experience over the years is that you rarely get what you pay for when chasing the fully or overpriced players. Oliver's last two games made up 11 points of his average jump, you're far more likely to get the 115ppg player he was over the first 9 games than the 170ppg player he's been over the last two. You can probably make a case for a guy like Merrett is more likely to be the 112.4ppg guy he's been over the first 8 weeks than the 90.5 player of the past two weeks.
I mean the guy is doing what he's doing with you literally taking him out of the play for almost a third of the game... honestly, it seems like coaching would be entirely easy if coaches could get out of their own way...
Playing as that winger that becomes the +1 at the stoppages, effectively the clearances he aren't at are the far wing and CBA. Very similar role to what Clug is doing at Brisbane or Kelly at GWS for the past month. It's as good as a role gets outside of pure ball following midfielders. You can often be unaccounted for at stoppages if your man holds his shape or is being used the +1 defensively which can lead to clean clearances (gold) and touches on the spread but also makes you the guy kicking inside 50 a lot, which for guys like Clug and Cerra who are phenomenal I50 kickers is also gold. Mitch Duncan another who also plays this role pretty commonly. To be fair it's probably a better DT role than SC, especially if you're not an elite I50 kicker.
The person buying now does not get any of those points from Lyons, they're gone, he simply pays for them.
For example... at the end of round 4
Martin - 158, 120, 85 and 88 for a 112.75 average
McCluggage - 66, 86, 88 and 103 for an average of 85.75
Averages since 81 (and a missed game) and 126.
Now that doesn't mean that we should ignore the past performance but it's definitely worth considering if there is a potential reason that could close that gap.
I also have to say that this season I think there is a very good case to say that Lyons and Bont certainly belong in the group of 2 from the original post. Bont has the most golden ticket this year, his scores go well beyond his stats and it's a fool's game to ignore that, every season there is an anointed one and this year it's clearly Bont. Lyons is basically the workmanlike guy who just does everything and as a result is scoring great and to be fair, Guthrie belonged in this group and would be in it but for the injury on the weekend and you can definitely make a case that Parish has been in it since the midfield move and will stay in it.
I do think you can throw a blanket over the rest of the group though and given that, realistically value is a strong tiebreaker on a group of guys that could average 125 from here or could average 100. Byes are also a good breaker. Picking the midfielders is always hard, a couple of tags or non-tags can change the equation, like who had Carlton and St Kilda, both who have proven good big body taggers, choosing to completely ignore Bont for the entire game and essentially challenge him to see how many touches he could get? Meanwhile Hawthorn tag Walsh or Freo hard tag Merrett (both teams that hadn't tagged all season). Throw in random coaches throwing guys forward for a month and what not and really it's as much luck as good management.
Hell... as a guy who was forced to pay top dollar for Gawn this year and has copped absolute puss every game since including a couple of terrible captain scores I know how painful it is to pay the premium and not get it.
My personal experience over the years is that you rarely get what you pay for when chasing the fully or overpriced players. Oliver's last two games made up 11 points of his average jump, you're far more likely to get the 115ppg player he was over the first 9 games than the 170ppg player he's been over the last two. You can probably make a case for a guy like Merrett is more likely to be the 112.4ppg guy he's been over the first 8 weeks than the 90.5 player of the past two weeks.
I mean the guy is doing what he's doing with you literally taking him out of the play for almost a third of the game... honestly, it seems like coaching would be entirely easy if coaches could get out of their own way...
Playing as that winger that becomes the +1 at the stoppages, effectively the clearances he aren't at are the far wing and CBA. Very similar role to what Clug is doing at Brisbane or Kelly at GWS for the past month. It's as good as a role gets outside of pure ball following midfielders. You can often be unaccounted for at stoppages if your man holds his shape or is being used the +1 defensively which can lead to clean clearances (gold) and touches on the spread but also makes you the guy kicking inside 50 a lot, which for guys like Clug and Cerra who are phenomenal I50 kickers is also gold. Mitch Duncan another who also plays this role pretty commonly. To be fair it's probably a better DT role than SC, especially if you're not an elite I50 kicker.
It's interesting his two best scores are against the two top sides he's faced and his worst score is against the worst side. He's like a reverse Eagle...
Even the weekend with his 3rd best score was in a loss.
They have Dogs, Lions, Pies, Bombers, GWS and Port as the next 6, that's 3 top sides, 2 sides with good midfields playing good footy right now and the Pies. Also has Dogs, Eagles, Crows and Cats as the last 4, so more tough games.
His first month I'm happy to write off as him playing forward a lot to cover for the injuries. His last month is a bit more concerning but he's been getting plenty of the ball which makes it interesting.
Was going to target him this week but with Touk and Titch available next week through the byes I might posture up towards them instead. A whole extra premium score is very hard to resist, basically adds 10ppg to their average.
Even the weekend with his 3rd best score was in a loss.
They have Dogs, Lions, Pies, Bombers, GWS and Port as the next 6, that's 3 top sides, 2 sides with good midfields playing good footy right now and the Pies. Also has Dogs, Eagles, Crows and Cats as the last 4, so more tough games.
His first month I'm happy to write off as him playing forward a lot to cover for the injuries. His last month is a bit more concerning but he's been getting plenty of the ball which makes it interesting.
Was going to target him this week but with Touk and Titch available next week through the byes I might posture up towards them instead. A whole extra premium score is very hard to resist, basically adds 10ppg to their average.
Currently 19th on aggregate , and despite all the criticism has gone 90+ 10 out of 11 games.
Another mistake of mine trading him out (and keeping Cripps instead)
Kelly 1141 v Cripps 984
Hopefully @THCLT provides his second half season tables at the end of the season for the 4 positions , always interesting to see who comes home strong and those that drop off in the second half.
Another mistake of mine trading him out (and keeping Cripps instead)
Kelly 1141 v Cripps 984
Hopefully @THCLT provides his second half season tables at the end of the season for the 4 positions , always interesting to see who comes home strong and those that drop off in the second half.
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How's everyones midfields looking as we get close to completing?
Mine is pretty average, but I hold hopes that there's some upside amongst them for the run home.
Macrae, Fyfe, Titch, Taranto, Trac, KING CRIPPS, Laird*, Poulter (McNeil, Brockman, Macrae)
*Laird to be moved down back, my final upgrade will be one of Highmore/Jones/Murphy up to a mid.
Anyone got a ****ter midfield than that?
I'm eyeing off Neale and Guthrie for my final two slots, as it looks near impossible to find cash for Oliver and Bont types without a stinker score from them very soon.
Mine is pretty average, but I hold hopes that there's some upside amongst them for the run home.
Macrae, Fyfe, Titch, Taranto, Trac, KING CRIPPS, Laird*, Poulter (McNeil, Brockman, Macrae)
*Laird to be moved down back, my final upgrade will be one of Highmore/Jones/Murphy up to a mid.
Anyone got a ****ter midfield than that?
I'm eyeing off Neale and Guthrie for my final two slots, as it looks near impossible to find cash for Oliver and Bont types without a stinker score from them very soon.
I have Macrae, Oliver, Steele, Walsh, Mitchell, Petracca, Josh Kelly, Poulter (Bianco, RCD, Sharp).
If I get Neale in at M8, I will basically own my "predicted Top 8" from the preseason (only swapping Fyfe with Walsh).
Mitchell, Petracca & Josh Kelly have been disappointing given they are all averaging well under 115.
Clearly missing Bont, who has surprised me with his big midfield minutes.
Round 11 CBAs & kick-in stats.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.af...ats-every-clubs-cbas-and-kick-ins-for-r11/amp
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.af...ats-every-clubs-cbas-and-kick-ins-for-r11/amp
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