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I'd say with other clubs it would be 50% he's back after the bye and 49% that it takes longer than predicted with a 1% chance he's back early.
Given it's the Pies and their recent efforts, I'd say it's 50% he's back after the bye, 25% they rush him back early, 20% they rush him back early and make it worse and 5% they take their time.
One factor with the Pies, as much as they're "rebuilding" they need to win as much as possible because they gave away their first rounder already and it just looks really bad if it's a top 2 pick so they need to win. Bucks also coaching for his career you'd think.
Realistically though, it's the kind of injury you'd think the 3 weeks post bye is the likely best case outcome.
I think other circumstances are going to force me into the trade. Grabbing NicNat allows me to get Steele instead of Bianco this week and opens the pathway to Danger and Lloyd/Mills for my final two upgrades left. Plus it feels like years since I've had NicNat and it's always an interesting ride.
One thing with NicNat is he has a very strong history of big scoring patches, basically every season he had 3 140+ scores they're basically all in a 6 week period. 2012 he had 164, 153 and 163 in a 5 week block. 2015 it was 152, 147, 146 and 130 in a 6 week block. Last year after playing himself into shape (like he has this year) he went 146, 153, 146 and 143 with 129 and 122 also in the final 8 weeks, was a 72 and a 98 to balance it out. The man can score.
Eagles midfield is also set to get a lot stronger over the next month with Yeo back, Shuey, Duggan and Hutchings all due back in the next few weeks and Kelly a couple of weeks after that. Having said that, in a weird way I like NicNat without midfielders more, last week after Kelly went down NicNat started taking it out of the ruck consistently and it was absolute gold as he gets the contested clearance and almost always just bangs it 40m down the line to a contest (which Eagles forwards give), meaning effective kick on top.
I'm mostly trying to sell him to myself
Given it's the Pies and their recent efforts, I'd say it's 50% he's back after the bye, 25% they rush him back early, 20% they rush him back early and make it worse and 5% they take their time.
One factor with the Pies, as much as they're "rebuilding" they need to win as much as possible because they gave away their first rounder already and it just looks really bad if it's a top 2 pick so they need to win. Bucks also coaching for his career you'd think.
Realistically though, it's the kind of injury you'd think the 3 weeks post bye is the likely best case outcome.
I think other circumstances are going to force me into the trade. Grabbing NicNat allows me to get Steele instead of Bianco this week and opens the pathway to Danger and Lloyd/Mills for my final two upgrades left. Plus it feels like years since I've had NicNat and it's always an interesting ride.
One thing with NicNat is he has a very strong history of big scoring patches, basically every season he had 3 140+ scores they're basically all in a 6 week period. 2012 he had 164, 153 and 163 in a 5 week block. 2015 it was 152, 147, 146 and 130 in a 6 week block. Last year after playing himself into shape (like he has this year) he went 146, 153, 146 and 143 with 129 and 122 also in the final 8 weeks, was a 72 and a 98 to balance it out. The man can score.
Eagles midfield is also set to get a lot stronger over the next month with Yeo back, Shuey, Duggan and Hutchings all due back in the next few weeks and Kelly a couple of weeks after that. Having said that, in a weird way I like NicNat without midfielders more, last week after Kelly went down NicNat started taking it out of the ruck consistently and it was absolute gold as he gets the contested clearance and almost always just bangs it 40m down the line to a contest (which Eagles forwards give), meaning effective kick on top.
I'm mostly trying to sell him to myself
Still believe over the byes will only make an extra 100-200 points, but the unknown date of a Grundy return may sway me to NN, plus have a few extra trades up my sleeve and worried CD are going to give extra trades if they change the byes.
Does anybody know if NicNat TOG is improving?
