BBL|11 Player's Price & Break Even Projections by TAILS
- Thread starter Tails
- Start date
Round 3 / Game 1 update (#10):
- SYDT v MELS @ Sydney Showground Stadium (7.15 pm start)
Notes:
- MELS players have another game to play yet so price changes will change yet again because of the DGR !!
- So this is not a "true" reflection yet until the next game is completed ... please don't do any trades based on that teams predictions just yet ..
- MELS won the toss and decided to Bowl first ...
- No X factor players were used this game ...
- SYDT v MELS @ Sydney Showground Stadium (7.15 pm start)
Notes:
- MELS players have another game to play yet so price changes will change yet again because of the DGR !!
- So this is not a "true" reflection yet until the next game is completed ... please don't do any trades based on that teams predictions just yet ..
- MELS won the toss and decided to Bowl first ...
- No X factor players were used this game ...
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Rather than making unsubstantiated post, I suggest you show a bit more gratitude & appreciation to the information freely provided by @Tails
Furthermore, he usually has them up after each and every game, even before the post match interviews are completed. This is extremely useful for working and planning through your possible trades for the following round as you don't have to wait until the end of a round, particularly so when the break in between rounds is generally only 24 hours.
Also, the MN is constant for ALL players regardless of how many games they've played for the season. The MN is a calculated number based on the player's total price pool and their respective averages, this will gradually rise then stabilise through a season as the lower priced players rises closer to their expected averages and vice versa.
To highlight this, let's looks at Matt Short after his 107 in R1, his actual price for R2 was $83,900.
Below is the projected price and BE for Mitch Marsh for R4, let's wait and see how close it is at the completion of this round.
Furthermore, he usually has them up after each and every game, even before the post match interviews are completed. This is extremely useful for working and planning through your possible trades for the following round as you don't have to wait until the end of a round, particularly so when the break in between rounds is generally only 24 hours.
Also, the MN is constant for ALL players regardless of how many games they've played for the season. The MN is a calculated number based on the player's total price pool and their respective averages, this will gradually rise then stabilise through a season as the lower priced players rises closer to their expected averages and vice versa.
To highlight this, let's looks at Matt Short after his 107 in R1, his actual price for R2 was $83,900.
Below is the projected price and BE for Mitch Marsh for R4, let's wait and see how close it is at the completion of this round.
First of all, I’m going to emphasise how much I value Tails contribution, as I mentioned on one of the first posts of this thread, it’s my favourite of the bbl season. With such a little turnaround in lockout, it’s perfect for planning.
I wonder if Marsh potentially rising less after one game is because the others have played more? So it’s different for players coming in mid-season. Now I have no evidence, or mathematical background here but waging a theoretical explanation? Did Qais/Dre Russ drop more than expected game 2?
As a non-owner 145-150k would hurt a lot less 😅😅😅
I wonder if Marsh potentially rising less after one game is because the others have played more? So it’s different for players coming in mid-season. Now I have no evidence, or mathematical background here but waging a theoretical explanation? Did Qais/Dre Russ drop more than expected game 2?
As a non-owner 145-150k would hurt a lot less 😅😅😅
Andre Russell projection below after scoring 18 in R2, his actually price was $165,700 (-$2K on projection).
Qais Ahmad projection below after scoring 30 in R2, his actual price was $120,500 (-$1K on projection).
Based on the above and provided we don't see too many players scoring well above their PTA (Price To Average) and vice versa, I would expect MMarsh R4 price to be circa $160K.
Like I mentioned above, we'll find out soon enough after tonight's game. However, if the algorithm is consistent then I would expect the projection to hold true. If not, then there's obviously some inconsistency in their calculations (which has happened in previous season, particularly for players coming off a DGR).
If the later is true, then we (Tails) have no control over it, he can only provide projections based on his best understanding and knowledge.
Hope that helps.
Qais Ahmad projection below after scoring 30 in R2, his actual price was $120,500 (-$1K on projection).
Based on the above and provided we don't see too many players scoring well above their PTA (Price To Average) and vice versa, I would expect MMarsh R4 price to be circa $160K.
Like I mentioned above, we'll find out soon enough after tonight's game. However, if the algorithm is consistent then I would expect the projection to hold true. If not, then there's obviously some inconsistency in their calculations (which has happened in previous season, particularly for players coming off a DGR).
If the later is true, then we (Tails) have no control over it, he can only provide projections based on his best understanding and knowledge.
Hope that helps.
