BBL|11 Player's Price & Break Even Projections by TAILS

[Tails]

Round 3 combined summary:

 

[Tails]

Will be seeking the updated BE's for at least 6 SGR players from last round once SC updates ....

HOB: Short and Wade ...
MELR: Richardson and Khan ...
PER: Tye and Bancroft ....

Thanks in advance as it should help us all !!

 

[7/11]

Those Stars who are losing price is going to really hurt a lot of teams looking to trade them out this week for scorchers. Think we’ll see round 5 start to really take its toll on those coaches who have been unlucky or haven’t managed their salary cap well.

 

[Ironhawk]

Those Stars who are losing price is going to really hurt a lot of teams looking to trade them out this week for scorchers. Think we’ll see round 5 start to really take its toll on those coaches who have been unlucky or haven’t managed their salary cap well.

Yep. The three I'm looking at trading out have lost around $35K this round, and it could easily be much worse for others. Lucky I have $77K in the bank, going to need to use most of it.

 

[jel]

Anyone with Curran & Sams (like me ) is looking at even more price pain with those high BEs

 

[Sideshow Bob]

Will be seeking the updated BE's for at least 6 SGR players from last round once SC updates ....

HOB: Short and Wade ...
MELR: Richardson and Khan ...
PER: Tye and Bancroft ....

Thanks in advance as it should help us all !!

Short 33 Wade 33
Richo 30 Khan 31
Tye 113 Bancroft 32

 

[Tails]

Short 33 Wade 33
Richo 30 Khan 31
Tye 113 Bancroft 32

Thanks ...

- Tye and Bancroft seem out but should have enough to run with ..

but if you are still awake could I also get the following to confirm:

- SYDT: Ross
- MELR: Harvey

 

[squid]

Nice to see SC have done the usual stuffing up of players prices on a DGW... Sixers prices are wrong in game, i assume they have entered the scores in reverse for the DGW.

I noticed Phillipes breakeven was extremely low on gold (around 15), and Tails was high (99) going into the round, with it being obvious Tails was correct as the high score from R1 wouldnt be in the rolling avg anymore.

We now have Phillipe and SOK being an extra 20-25k because of it.

Makes it so hard to do trades when they cant get the prices correct.

 

[squid]

Thanks ...

- Tye and Bancroft seem out but should have enough to run with ..

but if you are still awake could I also get the following to confirm:

- SYDT: Ross
- MELR: Harvey

Ross 2
Harvey 20

 

[Tails]

Ross 2
Harvey 20

Perfect ... that is what I had calculated ... thanx

 

[THCLT]

Nice to see SC have done the usual stuffing up of players prices on a DGW

At least they are consistently incorrect...

I'm of the opinion that it's a simple fix as all that they need to change is their algorithm for players coming off a DGR but NO it has been sitting in the 'too hard and CBF basket' for all these years.

Pretty unprofessional and poor form especially when there's cash prizes up for grabs!

 

[KLo30]

Rather than making unsubstantiated post, I suggest you show a bit more gratitude & appreciation to the information freely provided by @Tails

Furthermore, he usually has them up after each and every game, even before the post match interviews are completed. This is extremely useful for working and planning through your possible trades for the following round as you don't have to wait until the end of a round, particularly so when the break in between rounds is generally only 24 hours.

Also, the MN is constant for ALL players regardless of how many games they've played for the season. The MN is a calculated number based on the player's total price pool and their respective averages, this will gradually rise then stabilise through a season as the lower priced players rises closer to their expected averages and vice versa.

To highlight this, let's looks at Matt Short after his 107 in R1, his actual price for R2 was $83,900.
View attachment 36549

Below is the projected price and BE for Mitch Marsh for R4, let's wait and see how close it is at the completion of this round.
View attachment 36550

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1470692380424630272

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/tim_michell/status/1470692380424630272

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1470693281604333572

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/tim_michell/status/1470693281604333572

Marsh $163,400. Well done guys.

 

[Tails]

Round 3 BE calcs:
- Sorted by average

- Please point out any gremlins as this is a combined formula / manual process ...
- Thanks to @Sideshow Bob and @squid for proving the BE's
- +/- 1 they should be pretty much right ...
- Any players entering or coming out of a DGR may differ from SC Gold (seems to happen every year) but there is nothing I can do about that ...

 

[Rowsus]

Rather than making unsubstantiated post, I suggest you show a bit more gratitude & appreciation to the information freely provided by @Tails

Furthermore, he usually has them up after each and every game, even before the post match interviews are completed. This is extremely useful for working and planning through your possible trades for the following round as you don't have to wait until the end of a round, particularly so when the break in between rounds is generally only 24 hours.

Also, the MN is constant for ALL players regardless of how many games they've played for the season. The MN is a calculated number based on the player's total price pool and their respective averages, this will gradually rise then stabilise through a season as the lower priced players rises closer to their expected averages and vice versa.

To highlight this, let's looks at Matt Short after his 107 in R1, his actual price for R2 was $83,900.
View attachment 36549

Below is the projected price and BE for Mitch Marsh for R4, let's wait and see how close it is at the completion of this round.
View attachment 36550

And as it turned out, @Tails, @THCLT were right again.
Marsh $163,400.

 

[THCLT]

Outside the usual and expect price stuff up with regards to players coming off their DGR, I think that it's safe to say that @Tails projections are pretty spot on so doubt no more!

Keep up the fantastic work Adrian as it's much appreciated by all who frequent your wonderful thread.

 

[Tails]

Round 3 BE calcs:
- Sorted by BE

- Please point out any gremlins as this is a combined formula / manual process ...
- Thanks to @Sideshow Bob and @squid for proving the BE's
- +/- 1 they should be pretty much right ...
- Any players entering or coming out of a DGR may differ from SC Gold (seems to happen every year) but there is nothing I can do about that ...

 

[Tails]

Top 20 teams - end of round 3

For those coaches at the pointy end of the overall ranking, this thread may be of some use as you endeavour to craft your way onward and upwards for the remainder of the season.

Notes:
- Below is a listing of players for the Top 20 teams with non-playing players greyed out and injured players in red text for ease of viewing.
- Also included is total points and points behind the leader for subsequent teams.
- One SCS member is in it that I know of so far .... Slap Stabbers

- Four teams managed to remain in it this week and 2 came back into it ...
- Of the four teams is also listed the trades they probably made ...

 

[Rowsus]

@Tails just an FYI.
You have Munro BE -17, SC Gold have Munro BE 137!!!!

 

[Tails]

@Tails just an FYI.
You have Munro BE -17, SC Gold have Munro BE 137!!!!

Have double checked everything and am happy with what I have .... they had Philippe massively wrong last round too ...

- My calcs only include the next game and not the full DGR ... that might explain it as he has either scored huge (154) or bugger all (3, 10) so far ...

 

[Woosie]

@Tails, by your calcs, what will the approx. prices be for the following at the end of RD4?

Scoring 30 & 30 each game

Munro -
Inglis -

Thanks