Here we go again...
Genuinely an interesting topic this year. Think there's more options than usual, feels like the top 2 have come back to the pack, especially Gawn who was pretty "terrible" over the 2nd half of the season.
Gawn - "Only" averaged 113 over the last 16 games last year and was clearly into a ruck share that, logically, will only increase given Jackson's potential and Gawn's importance that makes more resting forward sensible for a team thinking of September.
On the flipside, early on before they can get established in the 8 might be the time they ride him hardest.
Still, it's hard to argue him as a starter right now, imo. He's the obvious upgrade target given I think the 113 is a very fair representation.
Darcy - The obvious breakout guy. Durability not ideal but definitely looks in better shape and that's a huge factor for a guy who has never been in shape. Similar to the year Gawn got it and came back and tore the league apart, Darcy can do similar.
He seems the standout of the top 4 for mine on pure upside, underpriced from the first few rounds easing in and r23 injury. Of course those do highlight his biggest concern.
NicNat - Going under the radar, having a midfield beneath him would certainly help his ruck stats, which are already god tier. Durability has become surprisingly good the last two years. I think he's fairly priced, that's a positive and a negative. I can't see him going with Gawn/Grundy/Darcy if they push to 130 range they're all capable of but NicNat is probably the safest bet of this group to average what they're priced at right now.
Grundy - So much unknown here. I think he's my 2nd pick if I go two premiums but I don't know if I feel good about it. Will they play 2 rucks? Will they let him do what he does? Will they work out a way to actually benefit from him and rove to him? The midfield is a question mark that could hold him back. He's a poor tap ruck so he really needs his midfield winning to save that from getting away from him in SC.
Averaged 104 over his last 10 which only bumps to 107 by removing the injury game. Has a bit of a history of struggling with niggles, although to his credit has been good at avoiding them but that 104 is more indicative of Cameron taking more of his ruck minutes than anything else.
I think his range is pretty clearly in that 104-130 region, which is a huge range, of which the top half is a win and the bottom half is going to hurt if you start him and others perform as expected.
Need a lot more information here on what Macrae is going to do. As I said, I think right now the upside probably puts him ahead of Gawn/NicNat as the 2nd premium and for the risk averse he'd be ahead of Darcy.
Hickey - Maxed out last year for mine and Ladhams hurts him. Not relevant, imo.
Goldstein - Done as a premium at this point. Can't see him dialing back 7 years to compete with the high end of others and his best case seems a creeping to the low end of premium unless the ass falls out of the rest and even if that scenario happened I think there's higher upside guys.
Marshall - Torn here, he's a solid chance of getting R/F I reckon but I wouldn't start him for that hope and I think he's in a ruck share. Hasn't actually proven he can score well enough even as a lone ruck to be honest although I really love him as a player and he's definitely the guy I'd take as a breakout of all the options. Especially if Ryder weren't there.
ROB - I think he's underpriced but I don't think he's got the ceiling to be worth it. He definitely looked to limited last year physically so could definitely bounce back but that 106 2 years ago seems pretty close this ceiling for mine.
Lycett - I actually really like him as a pick, should be an unbridled #1 and he can score in that role but I don't think the ceiling is there. He's a guy who if the premium level fell to 105 I'd think about picking but I still think that premium level is 115+ and could easily be 125+
McInerney - Averaged 115 over his last 9 and really seemed to get it, like he finally realised I'm bigger and stronger than all these guys and can do what I want. Was it a flash in the pan or a breakout? Came to it all a bit later but right at that break out range for a ruck and I really like him.
Whether he's worth picking really comes down to a few things. Firstly and obviously, you have to believe in that 115. Secondly you have to believe that the premium line will also be that 115. I think that's a reasonable argument.
He's still risky, if he regresses to the mean of his career you're cooked but there's definitely merit here.
English - I think he's a forward if you're considering him, if he's the #1 ruck I think he has an excellent case as a forward. If he looks to have added the much needed size so he can not get abused in the ruck he could easily push 110+. Kind of guy you could pick if not confident on the top 4 guys and want a sighter, probably only needs 100 in the forwards which isn't a big leap.
Nank/Ceglar/McEvoy/Stanley/Flynn/Pittonet/Ryder/Wright/Phillips - I think we know what all these guys are, Pittonet maybe has a bit of upside but yeah...
Flynn - I actually loved what I saw from him and still don't get why they didn't seem to like him other than the all answering Cameron is a moron that works for all the GWS conundrums of the past few years. Basically if Preuss does beat him out then Preuss is a lock because Flynn was great. If he wasn't involved in a battle I'd actually like him as a pick.
Ladhams - I don't like him this year. If I did it would be as a forward.
Draper - I love him as a prospect, not sure if this year is the year but I think he's got 110 in him. Needs to do more around the ground with his athletic gifts and take more advantage of his leap at the CB for points. I think he probably jumps to that no man's land in the mid to high 90s this year that makes him expensive enough to make him a really hard call next year!
Jackson - See Ladhams
Witts - Great value here if he's back for round 1 but I'm not sure there's enough value here to pick him. I'd only be looking here if there is nothing below and you're really uncertain about the premiums above.
Reeves - I really liked what I saw but similar to Witts, I don't think the ceiling is high enough at his price unless there's nothing below. Think he's a guy in a couple of years with serious potential.
TDK - Be interesting if he were to win the #1 ruck role, I don't think he will because he was bullied consistently (you could argue Silvagni was more competitive in the ruck) but he's scary athletic if he does get it and could do something similar to English a couple of years ago. Doesn't seem to have a clue how good he could be though so not confident it happens this year.
Max Lynch - I assume they traded for a reason, Reeves is far from a lock, especially with a new coach who ditched him entirely last year. Rookie priced essentially and would be a go as the #1.
Preuss - If he wins the job he's probably a go and startable. Cameron so hard to trust with anything though and his durability is wretched. I like him a lot more than last year though, anything 75+ is a win from here.
No idea if there will be a genuine rookie ruck this year but those are the names I think are worth looking at this year at this point in time.
