Yes is the short answer.
However the 2 years since they have played together have been a bit harder to read than normal. 2020 saw the shortened games which would have heavily impacted a genuine ruck-share arrangement. In 2021 they both missed games, but Marshall was certainly underdone until at least late in the year.
Surely St. Kilda are not going to increase Ryder's ruck minutes at the expense of Marshall - it will likely head the other way given the respective ages. If Marshall is fit, even his "foward" minutes are going to be spent roaming up the ground, given the saints have King and Membrey down there.
I think last year basically backed up the 2020 season, there were very few major changes with the only consistent one I saw was that outside accumulators who'd made a big jump tended to fall back to more normal scoring although they also had interrupted seasons in a lot of cases but talking the Hunter, Gaff, Sidebottom and Whitfield types.
Rucks seemed to hold up very well and I'd argue that the KPF were big benefactors of it also so in a weird way it might actually overstate Marshall's scoring as a 2nd ruck.
Great stats, thank you.
Do we think there’s any tendency for Marshall to ruck against the opponent’s second option more than (say) Ryder?
I’m looking at the HTA % and seeing an upward trend … but if in 2019 he was up against predominantly the #1, and in 2020-21 playing more against the #2, that may influence the interpretation of the stats.
This is definitely a relevant factor BUT it's only relevant if that's changing this year which I don't think it would be. I expect Ryder to be managed a bit this year, which helps Marshall, but he's still the better ruck when fit (unless he's lost it this o***eason) so he'd be the #1 in most cases.
I really like Marshall, feel like I'm down on him but I think people love to go looking for reasons to pick someone at the expense of ignoring what's actually there.
For me Ryder is there and until there is a real indication he's not the #1 or in a 50/50 timeshare I think he has to be considered as there and in the way and Marshall, heck anyone but Cox basically, hasn't been able to score as a premium ruck in a genuine ruck share and they certainly haven't been able to go 120+ which is the carryover cut-off right now.
120+ is a huge ask, I think Marshall has the tools but there are a lot more obstacles than I'd like with that target in place.
I also don't think there's a huge reason to disregard that 120 mark. Darcy is showing all the signs of blowing further past it, Gawn and Grundy have both lived there for the best part of half a decade and I don't think it's beyond NicNat, albeit I'm not backing him.
Picking him in the hope he becomes a forward is also, imo, a flawed approach. Yes you can glass half full/empty this of "if he fails as a ruck pick he probably becomes a forward" but you're putting all your eggs in a DPP change to save what is already a bad pick, basically you're getting bailed out from a bad pick instead of making a good pick. Realistically you have to be expecting 120+ (or big changes in ruck premium levels) from Marshall, if that's not your expected target then wait until he actually is a forward and grab him then. He could easily just be a 105 guy stuck in a ruck share that doesn't get FWD but doesn't score well enough either.
Basically, work out if 120 is a more likely than not outcome for you (or set this where ever you have the premium cutoff mark) and go from there because that should basically be the criteria for any ruck you're looking at priced above at least 85 and perhaps even a bit lower.
