Position 2022: Forward Discussion
- Thread starter KLo30
- Start date
I take your point on this, although there are always new names that pop up that will go 100+. I don’t think we can exclude all the ones we lost from 2021, and not allow for the possibility that we will be doing the same thing in 12 months’ time.
I would say that Zorko, Dunkley and Danger would have all been pretty obvious 100+ candidates at this time last year. Ziebell and Hall were surprises from my perspective.
I would say that Zorko, Dunkley and Danger would have all been pretty obvious 100+ candidates at this time last year. Ziebell and Hall were surprises from my perspective.
You say garbage stat padding midfielder, I hear fantasy god ticking all the boxes 
Don't rate him very highly at all to be honest. I'd be somewhat shocked if he played ahead of Ladhams who is a vastly superior ruckman and a better forward to boot.
He's big but he's a real looks like Tarzan, plays like Jane type. He's also got questionable agility, he moves well in straight lines but he looks like he's stuck on rollerskates a lot of the time.
That he hasn't been able to have any influence in the ruck, against 2nd rucks, or really as a forward target against the 4th best defender is also a concern. He kind of reminds me of Jesse White, he looks athletic and big but I don't think he'd be a different player if he was 5 inches shorter.
To be fair, the big guys do take longer and he is an interesting prospect but personally I'd hope he doesn't play this year because if he's playing it means one of Ladhams, Hickey, Franklin or McDonald isn't. Also would be behind Reid, if he's fit which is probably not happening. I also thought Amartey looked better to close out the season than McLean.
If he does play and genuinely deserves it then that would be a fantastic result because for him to push ahead of all those guys would mean some serious progress.
The position changes every year, it's the nature of the position and every year the top few guys are generally midfielders making their way out. We've had Macrae, Petracca, Zorko (multiple times), Danger (multiple times), Dunkley (multiple times), Whitfield, Brayshaw, Gray, Boak, Merrett, etc, etc who come and go from the position and there will be the next Petracca, Danger, etc that passes on from the forwards this year.
2021 was not an anomaly in anyway, it was an absolutely standard season for the forward position, including those guys who got DPP is simply to illustrate how much those additions change the dynamic though because without them there are normally 4 guys hovering in that 100+ range and then a big group of guys in the 90s but with the DPP guys that 100+ group quickly becomes closer to 8 players.
Last year guys like Dale and Hind were 100% passes at the position, Impey was a premium keeper until he was hurt. Admittedly at their starting prices they'd probably still be good, but picking guys to go from 80 to 92 is probably going to fall short this year because I'd expect the forwards will produce 4+ 100+ guys on their own and there will be a couple of mids or rucks that get FWD status at that mark also.
Just looking at the forwards we have:
Dunkley - 100+ the last 3 seasons.
Duncan - 100+ 4 of the last 5 seasons.
Taranto - 100+ once in last 3 seasons.
Hawkins - 100+ 2 of the last 4 seasons
Martin - 100+ 7 of the last 9 seasons (99.5 in one of those 2)
Treloar - 100+ 7 of the last 8 seasons
English - 100+ 1 of the last 2 seasons
Sidebottom - 100+ 7 of the last 10 seasons
That's 8 guys who have gone 100+ at 72%, even just on that small group the odds would say that 5 of them go 100+ this year.
That doesn't include anyone breaking out, any position changes, just guys who have a history of scoring 100+.
FWIW, I don't even love half that group, my personal picks for the 100+ guys lies outside that as much as inside it, but just putting up the raw numbers.
There's just a huge likelihood that a couple of the young guys are now playing their first year as genuine mids and ending their time as forwards for SC.
Historically I'd say 95 was the cut-off point but every year in AFLF there has been 4 or 5 DPP additions in the forwards that matter big time so this year I think it's comfortably at 100, it could even venture to 105 this year quite easily.
Basically all it means is you want a compelling narrative for your guy getting 105, which leaves you a solid 5 point margin of error to still scrape in comfortably. The cheaper they start, the lower that can get but I'd be aiming there.
Don't rate him very highly at all to be honest. I'd be somewhat shocked if he played ahead of Ladhams who is a vastly superior ruckman and a better forward to boot.
He's big but he's a real looks like Tarzan, plays like Jane type. He's also got questionable agility, he moves well in straight lines but he looks like he's stuck on rollerskates a lot of the time.
That he hasn't been able to have any influence in the ruck, against 2nd rucks, or really as a forward target against the 4th best defender is also a concern. He kind of reminds me of Jesse White, he looks athletic and big but I don't think he'd be a different player if he was 5 inches shorter.
To be fair, the big guys do take longer and he is an interesting prospect but personally I'd hope he doesn't play this year because if he's playing it means one of Ladhams, Hickey, Franklin or McDonald isn't. Also would be behind Reid, if he's fit which is probably not happening. I also thought Amartey looked better to close out the season than McLean.
If he does play and genuinely deserves it then that would be a fantastic result because for him to push ahead of all those guys would mean some serious progress.
The position changes every year, it's the nature of the position and every year the top few guys are generally midfielders making their way out. We've had Macrae, Petracca, Zorko (multiple times), Danger (multiple times), Dunkley (multiple times), Whitfield, Brayshaw, Gray, Boak, Merrett, etc, etc who come and go from the position and there will be the next Petracca, Danger, etc that passes on from the forwards this year.
2021 was not an anomaly in anyway, it was an absolutely standard season for the forward position, including those guys who got DPP is simply to illustrate how much those additions change the dynamic though because without them there are normally 4 guys hovering in that 100+ range and then a big group of guys in the 90s but with the DPP guys that 100+ group quickly becomes closer to 8 players.
Last year guys like Dale and Hind were 100% passes at the position, Impey was a premium keeper until he was hurt. Admittedly at their starting prices they'd probably still be good, but picking guys to go from 80 to 92 is probably going to fall short this year because I'd expect the forwards will produce 4+ 100+ guys on their own and there will be a couple of mids or rucks that get FWD status at that mark also.
Just looking at the forwards we have:
Dunkley - 100+ the last 3 seasons.
Duncan - 100+ 4 of the last 5 seasons.
Taranto - 100+ once in last 3 seasons.
Hawkins - 100+ 2 of the last 4 seasons
Martin - 100+ 7 of the last 9 seasons (99.5 in one of those 2)
Treloar - 100+ 7 of the last 8 seasons
English - 100+ 1 of the last 2 seasons
Sidebottom - 100+ 7 of the last 10 seasons
That's 8 guys who have gone 100+ at 72%, even just on that small group the odds would say that 5 of them go 100+ this year.
That doesn't include anyone breaking out, any position changes, just guys who have a history of scoring 100+.
FWIW, I don't even love half that group, my personal picks for the 100+ guys lies outside that as much as inside it, but just putting up the raw numbers.
There's just a huge likelihood that a couple of the young guys are now playing their first year as genuine mids and ending their time as forwards for SC.
Historically I'd say 95 was the cut-off point but every year in AFLF there has been 4 or 5 DPP additions in the forwards that matter big time so this year I think it's comfortably at 100, it could even venture to 105 this year quite easily.
Basically all it means is you want a compelling narrative for your guy getting 105, which leaves you a solid 5 point margin of error to still scrape in comfortably. The cheaper they start, the lower that can get but I'd be aiming there.
You say garbage stat padding midfielder, I hear fantasy god ticking all the boxes
Don't rate him very highly at all to be honest. I'd be somewhat shocked if he played ahead of Ladhams who is a vastly superior ruckman and a better forward to boot.
He's big but he's a real looks like Tarzan, plays like Jane type. He's also got questionable agility, he moves well in straight lines but he looks like he's stuck on rollerskates a lot of the time.
That he hasn't been able to have any influence in the ruck, against 2nd rucks, or really as a forward target against the 4th best defender is also a concern. He kind of reminds me of Jesse White, he looks athletic and big but I don't think he'd be a different player if he was 5 inches shorter.
To be fair, the big guys do take longer and he is an interesting prospect but personally I'd hope he doesn't play this year because if he's playing it means one of Ladhams, Hickey, Franklin or McDonald isn't. Also would be behind Reid, if he's fit which is probably not happening. I also thought Amartey looked better to close out the season than McLean.
If he does play and genuinely deserves it then that would be a fantastic result because for him to push ahead of all those guys would mean some serious progress.
The position changes every year, it's the nature of the position and every year the top few guys are generally midfielders making their way out. We've had Macrae, Petracca, Zorko (multiple times), Danger (multiple times), Dunkley (multiple times), Whitfield, Brayshaw, Gray, Boak, Merrett, etc, etc who come and go from the position and there will be the next Petracca, Danger, etc that passes on from the forwards this year.
2021 was not an anomaly in anyway, it was an absolutely standard season for the forward position, including those guys who got DPP is simply to illustrate how much those additions change the dynamic though because without them there are normally 4 guys hovering in that 100+ range and then a big group of guys in the 90s but with the DPP guys that 100+ group quickly becomes closer to 8 players.
Last year guys like Dale and Hind were 100% passes at the position, Impey was a premium keeper until he was hurt. Admittedly at their starting prices they'd probably still be good, but picking guys to go from 80 to 92 is probably going to fall short this year because I'd expect the forwards will produce 4+ 100+ guys on their own and there will be a couple of mids or rucks that get FWD status at that mark also.
Just looking at the forwards we have:
Dunkley - 100+ the last 3 seasons.
Duncan - 100+ 4 of the last 5 seasons.
Taranto - 100+ once in last 3 seasons.
Hawkins - 100+ 2 of the last 4 seasons
Martin - 100+ 7 of the last 9 seasons (99.5 in one of those 2)
Treloar - 100+ 7 of the last 8 seasons
English - 100+ 1 of the last 2 seasons
Sidebottom - 100+ 7 of the last 10 seasons
That's 8 guys who have gone 100+ at 72%, even just on that small group the odds would say that 5 of them go 100+ this year.
That doesn't include anyone breaking out, any position changes, just guys who have a history of scoring 100+.
FWIW, I don't even love half that group, my personal picks for the 100+ guys lies outside that as much as inside it, but just putting up the raw numbers.
There's just a huge likelihood that a couple of the young guys are now playing their first year as genuine mids and ending their time as forwards for SC.
Historically I'd say 95 was the cut-off point but every year in AFLF there has been 4 or 5 DPP additions in the forwards that matter big time so this year I think it's comfortably at 100, it could even venture to 105 this year quite easily.
Basically all it means is you want a compelling narrative for your guy getting 105, which leaves you a solid 5 point margin of error to still scrape in comfortably. The cheaper they start, the lower that can get but I'd be aiming there.
Don't rate him very highly at all to be honest. I'd be somewhat shocked if he played ahead of Ladhams who is a vastly superior ruckman and a better forward to boot.
He's big but he's a real looks like Tarzan, plays like Jane type. He's also got questionable agility, he moves well in straight lines but he looks like he's stuck on rollerskates a lot of the time.
That he hasn't been able to have any influence in the ruck, against 2nd rucks, or really as a forward target against the 4th best defender is also a concern. He kind of reminds me of Jesse White, he looks athletic and big but I don't think he'd be a different player if he was 5 inches shorter.
To be fair, the big guys do take longer and he is an interesting prospect but personally I'd hope he doesn't play this year because if he's playing it means one of Ladhams, Hickey, Franklin or McDonald isn't. Also would be behind Reid, if he's fit which is probably not happening. I also thought Amartey looked better to close out the season than McLean.
If he does play and genuinely deserves it then that would be a fantastic result because for him to push ahead of all those guys would mean some serious progress.
The position changes every year, it's the nature of the position and every year the top few guys are generally midfielders making their way out. We've had Macrae, Petracca, Zorko (multiple times), Danger (multiple times), Dunkley (multiple times), Whitfield, Brayshaw, Gray, Boak, Merrett, etc, etc who come and go from the position and there will be the next Petracca, Danger, etc that passes on from the forwards this year.
2021 was not an anomaly in anyway, it was an absolutely standard season for the forward position, including those guys who got DPP is simply to illustrate how much those additions change the dynamic though because without them there are normally 4 guys hovering in that 100+ range and then a big group of guys in the 90s but with the DPP guys that 100+ group quickly becomes closer to 8 players.
Last year guys like Dale and Hind were 100% passes at the position, Impey was a premium keeper until he was hurt. Admittedly at their starting prices they'd probably still be good, but picking guys to go from 80 to 92 is probably going to fall short this year because I'd expect the forwards will produce 4+ 100+ guys on their own and there will be a couple of mids or rucks that get FWD status at that mark also.
Just looking at the forwards we have:
Dunkley - 100+ the last 3 seasons.
Duncan - 100+ 4 of the last 5 seasons.
Taranto - 100+ once in last 3 seasons.
Hawkins - 100+ 2 of the last 4 seasons
Martin - 100+ 7 of the last 9 seasons (99.5 in one of those 2)
Treloar - 100+ 7 of the last 8 seasons
English - 100+ 1 of the last 2 seasons
Sidebottom - 100+ 7 of the last 10 seasons
That's 8 guys who have gone 100+ at 72%, even just on that small group the odds would say that 5 of them go 100+ this year.
That doesn't include anyone breaking out, any position changes, just guys who have a history of scoring 100+.
FWIW, I don't even love half that group, my personal picks for the 100+ guys lies outside that as much as inside it, but just putting up the raw numbers.
There's just a huge likelihood that a couple of the young guys are now playing their first year as genuine mids and ending their time as forwards for SC.
Historically I'd say 95 was the cut-off point but every year in AFLF there has been 4 or 5 DPP additions in the forwards that matter big time so this year I think it's comfortably at 100, it could even venture to 105 this year quite easily.
Basically all it means is you want a compelling narrative for your guy getting 105, which leaves you a solid 5 point margin of error to still scrape in comfortably. The cheaper they start, the lower that can get but I'd be aiming there.
I'm not sure which part you don't understand? You didn't want to consider that players can change positions so I only included a small group of the players who are forwards this year with their scoring histories to show that on weight of averages you'd expect 5 of those 8 to score 100+ this year.
FWIW these are the number of players who average 98+ as forwards by year:
2014: 9
2015: 10
2016: 8
2017: 6
2018: 8
2019: 9
2020: 7
2021: 5
There were generally 3-5 of those guys that weren't forwards the next year. There were also 3-5 extras that gained FWD in AFLF in the last few years that I checked.
Last year was a historically weak forward group, something that most played around last year by picking much cheaper targets and the reason that the likes of Ziebell, Daniher, Hind, Walker, Dale and Impey were such common starting or correction picks.
FWIW these are the number of players who average 98+ as forwards by year:
2014: 9
2015: 10
2016: 8
2017: 6
2018: 8
2019: 9
2020: 7
2021: 5
There were generally 3-5 of those guys that weren't forwards the next year. There were also 3-5 extras that gained FWD in AFLF in the last few years that I checked.
Last year was a historically weak forward group, something that most played around last year by picking much cheaper targets and the reason that the likes of Ziebell, Daniher, Hind, Walker, Dale and Impey were such common starting or correction picks.
Starting premiums seem very obvious here.
Dunkley, Duncan, Taranto and Treloar. Won't be wasting much time looking elsewhere.
Dusty lost 7-8kgs or something of that nature in the hospital from the internal injury last year. Would expect him to start slow and possibly take a while to get back to his bulky self.
Dunkley, Duncan, Taranto and Treloar. Won't be wasting much time looking elsewhere.
Dusty lost 7-8kgs or something of that nature in the hospital from the internal injury last year. Would expect him to start slow and possibly take a while to get back to his bulky self.
- Joined
- 8 Aug 2012
- Messages
- 418
- Likes
- 2,699
- AFL Club
- Bulldogs
Thanks again @wogitalia. That list of tall fwd options at the Swans was enough to turn me off McLean, so you really didn’t need to throw in the Jesse White comparison – a really potent deterrent.
Having said that, I will see what (if anything) McLean does in the early rounds. I still think he could score well – if the chance and role presented. The AFL web-site ran a story back in Nov on the players who clocked up the biggest Telstra tracker stats from each club.
The Sydney entry was as follows.
Top-five most distance covered in a game in 2021
Hayden McLean, R7 v Geel, 16.74km
Errol Gulden, R5 v GWS, 16.27km
Hayden McLean, R8 v Melb, 15.79km
So he’s a really mobile big guy and from limited opportunities he did throw in a few decent SC scores of 117, 99 & 82
Having said that, I will see what (if anything) McLean does in the early rounds. I still think he could score well – if the chance and role presented. The AFL web-site ran a story back in Nov on the players who clocked up the biggest Telstra tracker stats from each club.
The Sydney entry was as follows.
Top-five most distance covered in a game in 2021
Hayden McLean, R7 v Geel, 16.74km
Errol Gulden, R5 v GWS, 16.27km
Hayden McLean, R8 v Melb, 15.79km
So he’s a really mobile big guy and from limited opportunities he did throw in a few decent SC scores of 117, 99 & 82
Actually think the weight loss could help Dusty, has been playing fat the last couple of years and really just using the season to get in shape for finals, if he actually shows up in shape it could be huge. Also thing the Tigers have fallen back into the pack and can't coast on a sub-par midfield and hope Dusty can bail them out up forward. They need to get more ball forward because they've lost a fair bit down back and can't rely on it anymore to cover for a poor midfield.
For reference the guys who got it last year that would have very much been relevant includes:
Darcy - 118 average and a fair bit higher after he got FWD status.
Kelly - 107 average, again a fair bit higher after he got it.
Fyfe - 100 average, kind of crap all year really and then got injured but still would have had a lot jump on him in SC.
Ceglar - 90 average, not huge but the R/F is a useful asset.
Billings - Fell apart physically after that but would have at least raised eyebrows at the time.
English - 89 average, not great but again, R/F.
Pendles - 90 average but tell me you wouldn't have been tempted anyway!
It's definitely a factor that needs to be considered. It only takes the Darcy type getting it and they can shape the season if you don't have them.
It's also possible it has little impact but I wouldn't be locking out the position and hoping that's the case.
Darcy - 118 average and a fair bit higher after he got FWD status.
Kelly - 107 average, again a fair bit higher after he got it.
Fyfe - 100 average, kind of crap all year really and then got injured but still would have had a lot jump on him in SC.
Ceglar - 90 average, not huge but the R/F is a useful asset.
Billings - Fell apart physically after that but would have at least raised eyebrows at the time.
English - 89 average, not great but again, R/F.
Pendles - 90 average but tell me you wouldn't have been tempted anyway!
It's definitely a factor that needs to be considered. It only takes the Darcy type getting it and they can shape the season if you don't have them.
It's also possible it has little impact but I wouldn't be locking out the position and hoping that's the case.
Jordan De Goey has agreed to 10x therapy sessions focussed on anger management and alcohol treatment to be served in Aus. He has pleaded guilty to Harassment of the 2nd degree. Court: "Specifically, you struck another individual, is that true? De Goey: "Yes, that is correct."
De Goey: "I would like to apologise for my actions. I appreciate the process going forward."
Mitch Cleary
@cleary_mitch
De Goey: "I would like to apologise for my actions. I appreciate the process going forward."
Mitch Cleary
@cleary_mitch
- Joined
- 30 Dec 2019
- Messages
- 1,540
- Likes
- 5,910
- AFL Club
- Richmond
