Played as our sixth/seventh defender to finish the year instead of Ah Chee and looked really good with both tackling and rebound (Ah Chee also looked better up forward, so double benefit). He played there in his overage year before drafting and did well too. Most Lions supporters expect him to have first dibs on that role again.
Position 2022: Forward Discussion
- Thread starter KLo30
- Start date
49 days out , not much point getting too excited about starting teams in any case , until we know what rookies are playing in Round 1.
Actually think their is a strong case for starting players in that price bracket personally , if they are Best 22 , stronger perceived JS than the higher priced draft picks , hopefully better scoring etc etc.
More players in this price bracket last season made $ 150k + profit than the cheap rookies that we all get drawn too.
4-5 are not that much more expensive than Horne-Francis and if we believe the media split of 30-70 not quite sure he is a lockity lock , North actually have a strong midfield plus this time last year we were talking about Phillips & Powell trying to get into their mid setup consistently.
The entire forward landscape could change depending on who/who doesn't get DPP status during the season.
Quite possible that the 6 best forward eligible players for the season don't even have forward status at the moment.
Great time of the year to tinker tinker tinker and think we have the ideal side , then come Round 1 we end up changing a third of it in any case
Actually think their is a strong case for starting players in that price bracket personally , if they are Best 22 , stronger perceived JS than the higher priced draft picks , hopefully better scoring etc etc.
More players in this price bracket last season made $ 150k + profit than the cheap rookies that we all get drawn too.
4-5 are not that much more expensive than Horne-Francis and if we believe the media split of 30-70 not quite sure he is a lockity lock , North actually have a strong midfield plus this time last year we were talking about Phillips & Powell trying to get into their mid setup consistently.
The entire forward landscape could change depending on who/who doesn't get DPP status during the season.
Quite possible that the 6 best forward eligible players for the season don't even have forward status at the moment.
Great time of the year to tinker tinker tinker and think we have the ideal side , then come Round 1 we end up changing a third of it in any case
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Dual position flexibility will be very handy to cover any possible donuts in defence if you can use a playing def/fwd as a switch, if he is selected in the forward line and vice versa. Also allows you not to overcommit funds to the forward line and go cheap to assess the dual position changes, of which the forward line changes are likely to be the most relevant and you can use a or several trade boosts over the space of a few rounds to cash out the first batch of rookies and upgrade the stepping stones such as Coleman to premiums. Can also be started in defence if enough rookies do not appear at D5 or even D4.
Played the secondary rebounding defender slow for round 23 and the finals, which given those were 3 do or die games for Brisbane his average of 85 is very promising. Birchall retiring opens even more chances in that role.
Basically he's got the same narrative as Impey, Jiath, Ziebell, Hall, Cumming, Hind and Dale, among others, last year of moving into that juicy rebounding HBF role. Priced not much above rookies with D/F DPP makes him a very strong pick.
Throw in that he's a great kick, runs and carries and showed really good one on one defensive skills last year to win intercept possessions and is sneaky good in the air for his size and he's got a great profile to score well.
Basically I think 80+ is a very sound bet and that 90+ is not outside his range. I'd say Hind or Impey is probably the most relatable comparison for him who both actually went 90+ last year.
I think this year he's cheap enough to counteract the durability issue, still needs to tick that preseason box to help that but it's a big start.
Throw in that for the first time it's the coach saying midfield and that's huge. It's always been us saying midfield because he's clearly one of the Swans' best mids and he's so wasted up forward but Horse hasn't agreed with that and it hasn't happened and so he has limited bursts all over the field that pumped his average and a few games where he kicks a bag to hold it up but otherwise has been weighed down by coaching decisions.
I don't like Horse but he's generally very good for being honest on positions and giving rookies a chance once he selects them, it's his two good areas as a coach from a fantasy perspective.
Things people said last year for $1600 please! Then you have Dale, Ziebell, Daniher, Hind, Cumming, Impey, Jiath, Hickey, Heppell and a few others all come out and go bang!
There's always risk, players aren't that cheap for no reason, but I think last year showed just how effective it can be. That said you definitely need a strong narrative behind it. Kick-ins, half back flank, midfield minutes and that type of genuine solid change is a good starting point.
Basically he's got the same narrative as Impey, Jiath, Ziebell, Hall, Cumming, Hind and Dale, among others, last year of moving into that juicy rebounding HBF role. Priced not much above rookies with D/F DPP makes him a very strong pick.
Throw in that he's a great kick, runs and carries and showed really good one on one defensive skills last year to win intercept possessions and is sneaky good in the air for his size and he's got a great profile to score well.
Basically I think 80+ is a very sound bet and that 90+ is not outside his range. I'd say Hind or Impey is probably the most relatable comparison for him who both actually went 90+ last year.
I think this year he's cheap enough to counteract the durability issue, still needs to tick that preseason box to help that but it's a big start.
Throw in that for the first time it's the coach saying midfield and that's huge. It's always been us saying midfield because he's clearly one of the Swans' best mids and he's so wasted up forward but Horse hasn't agreed with that and it hasn't happened and so he has limited bursts all over the field that pumped his average and a few games where he kicks a bag to hold it up but otherwise has been weighed down by coaching decisions.
I don't like Horse but he's generally very good for being honest on positions and giving rookies a chance once he selects them, it's his two good areas as a coach from a fantasy perspective.
Things people said last year for $1600 please! Then you have Dale, Ziebell, Daniher, Hind, Cumming, Impey, Jiath, Hickey, Heppell and a few others all come out and go bang!
There's always risk, players aren't that cheap for no reason, but I think last year showed just how effective it can be. That said you definitely need a strong narrative behind it. Kick-ins, half back flank, midfield minutes and that type of genuine solid change is a good starting point.
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Hypothetically, at which stage of this season would this be?
Referring to the attached thread, those initially priced in the low $200,00 range would not be causing issues if they reached the $300,000 to $350,000 quickly and did not miss any games during that period.
https://supercoachscores.com/thread...s-a-fine-line-between-pleasure-and-pain.2799/
Referring to the attached thread, those initially priced in the low $200,00 range would not be causing issues if they reached the $300,000 to $350,000 quickly and did not miss any games during that period.
https://supercoachscores.com/thread...s-a-fine-line-between-pleasure-and-pain.2799/
I just dont think the mid priced options are actually any good this year ultimately, lot of what if picks and very few of them are actually proven quality scorers and the ones that are are coming back from serious injuries and likely to build into the season, youll generate cash better picking rookies for mine, people have seen Ziebell and Impey work and suddenly think its the way to go, far more bust than pay off and people want to a start a heap of them? Just seems madness to me.
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I guarantee there will be good picks in that price range, and I also think some of those popular choices in this range will turn out quite good, as usual - I wouldn't write them all off. I also know from past experience, there will be many, many poor choices in that price range who will be regrettable selections - I'm a sucker for choosing these latter ones over the good ones.
Definitely buyer beware, do some solid research, and if you are going to take a punt on them, ensure you aren't locked in to picking a player from a dud price range if it goes badly wrong five or six rounds in, because that's where your season chances will pretty much end.
Definitely buyer beware, do some solid research, and if you are going to take a punt on them, ensure you aren't locked in to picking a player from a dud price range if it goes badly wrong five or six rounds in, because that's where your season chances will pretty much end.
I just think you need a balance, you dont want to end up having to burn through 10 trades fixing your side because youve loaded too many mid pricers and only a quarter of them have paid off, guns and rookies with a few mid priced players thrown in there has always been the best strategy for a reason, way too risky relying on them to be the totality of a line, it's only January though can't be too defined in any sort of strategy right now.
I'm having trouble seeing a starting forward line. The DPP changes raise the bar a bit and would suggest leaving some room anyway. Probably need at least a 100 average or a real cheapie getting to 95.
Did Dunkley benefit from Treloar not being 100% at the start of last year.
Taranto is probably behind Coniglio for midfield minutes.
Don't think we should expect Dusty to get back to 100.
As long as there are no preseason hiccups I'm ok with Duncan.
Who else gets to 100? Not a lot of evidence that anyone else will get there and it looks like the good rookies are in the midfield.
Did Dunkley benefit from Treloar not being 100% at the start of last year.
Taranto is probably behind Coniglio for midfield minutes.
Don't think we should expect Dusty to get back to 100.
As long as there are no preseason hiccups I'm ok with Duncan.
Who else gets to 100? Not a lot of evidence that anyone else will get there and it looks like the good rookies are in the midfield.
Dunkley is far from a lock for me yet, looked a shadow of the player post shoulder return last year, want to see that he's actually fit and injury free first.
Taranto is a firm no for me, mainly because their best forward is out for 5 weeks find it hard to see him not slotting into that Greene role and dropping in price and becoming a prime upgrade target.
Dusty is just a massive unknown for me going into the season, usually starts slow anyway but when hes had such a serious injury and lost plenty of size and strength I find it hard to see him getting that all back just off one pre season, may very well never be the same player again.
Forward structure is a real problem for me right now, really not liking much at the moment.
Taranto is a firm no for me, mainly because their best forward is out for 5 weeks find it hard to see him not slotting into that Greene role and dropping in price and becoming a prime upgrade target.
Dusty is just a massive unknown for me going into the season, usually starts slow anyway but when hes had such a serious injury and lost plenty of size and strength I find it hard to see him getting that all back just off one pre season, may very well never be the same player again.
Forward structure is a real problem for me right now, really not liking much at the moment.
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One of the main reasons for me to take a midpricer is the saving of trades to get them to keeper level.
Using D Rioli as an example (excuse me if my math is a bit out) Priced at 336k and scores at 90 for 7-8 rounds puts him at around 430k, I would only need a rookie to have reached 230k to turn him and Rioli into a 530k premo and rookie, whereas I'd have to use 4 trades of 230k (or 3 x 260k) rookies to achieve the same outcome.
I know that the 150k cash gen is the ideal but I'm more than happy to take the 80-100k on a midpricer, particularly if they can replace an onfield rookie score to begin with. If they gain keeper status then that's a bonus and not something that is planned for.
Using D Rioli as an example (excuse me if my math is a bit out) Priced at 336k and scores at 90 for 7-8 rounds puts him at around 430k, I would only need a rookie to have reached 230k to turn him and Rioli into a 530k premo and rookie, whereas I'd have to use 4 trades of 230k (or 3 x 260k) rookies to achieve the same outcome.
I know that the 150k cash gen is the ideal but I'm more than happy to take the 80-100k on a midpricer, particularly if they can replace an onfield rookie score to begin with. If they gain keeper status then that's a bonus and not something that is planned for.
Every year there are multiple guys in that price group, I agree last year as an outlier where not only were there a solid dozen of them but pretty much all the good ones with strong narratives even worked.
Across the formats and my draft teams I either started or traded into before price changes: Cumming, Dale, Hind, Ziebell, Heppell, Impey, Daniher, Jiath (technically had a price change in AFLF), Aliir, Walker and Atkins. That's across a total of 6 teams but I can say that outside of Walker and Aliir I considered every single one of them at round 1.
This year's group isn't as strong at this point but it must be said that the major guys to target in that price range aren't even known yet because they'll be the position change guys, predominantly you're looking for genuine midfield roles or rebounding defender roles. Of that group Daniher and Heppell (to a degree) are the only guys who were returning from injury, Walker was a flat out unpickable miracle, Aliir was from a coach who hated him playing him out of position. Cumming and Jiath was just getting a run in the team but the main guys and the most solid were Ziebell (albeit, he does fit in injury but that's not his main driver), Hind, Dale and Impey who got genuine HBF roles.
Now part of that many success stories making that change is there will be imitations but also there are now a lot less available slots.
Coleman and Rioli are the two very obvious ones right now, they made the changes last year and they both played very well and scored well doing it. Doesn't hurt that both their sides also had their secondary rebounder from last year retire.
Coniglio is an obvious Heppell type of story, years of well above pass level scoring and the captain of the side. He's best 22 if fit and the if fit is the only question. Like Ziebell last year, not picking him will be a bigger risk if he's fit.
Berry only has one year of huge scoring but the 2 years prior to that are well and truly pass level scoring for his price and he's got the ability to put up very big scores which are huge for cash generation.
Rest need to find their way into the sunshine but I'm confident we should find a half dozen good targets in that price range, ultimately it comes down to if the rookies look good and the extra cash can be better used elsewhere.
I do think that the position changes will inflate primarily the forward pass mark this year and that as a result the chance of getting a keeper from any of those guys except for Coniglio is not high, although Coleman and Rioli are both DPP and could scrape in down back but I don't see that going below 100 either so it's unlikely.
It's actually funny how differently we can all see a group of players. I've personally moved my forward pass mark to 100, which basically means I expect there to be 8 guys above that mark at seasons end and thus to have a F6 that's below that you need to have paid peanuts for it.
For mine I think all of the following have very strong 100+ cases:
Dunkley
Duncan
Taranto
Hawkins
Stringer
Martin
Wingard
Treloar
English
De Goey
Heeney
Coniglio
Then I also think Thomas, Butters, McKay, Dixon, Bolton, Graham, Sidebottom and Greene can have good cases made.
Throw in the likes of Danger, Petracca, Marshall, Gawn, Fyfe and Yeo who all are chances to get FWD tag among many others and it could be a very loaded position.
To be clear, not saying they all will score 100+ just that I can very easily paint the story for them doing it. Heck for several of those it's easier to paint that they will than they wont.
It's so hard as I see great value in the group but also know that someone like a Marshall or Danger getting FWD status and you've got 5 forwards can actually derail your season (another reason I don't like invisible position changes) as suddenly your F5/6 types are WAY under par.
Right now I'm finding it very hard to strike the balance in team building between allowing the flexibility for those changes, which primarily hit the forwards, and also taking the best value starting picks which, imo, are also in the forwards. Like I'd ideally start 2-3 premium forwards at most but that generally means more backs and I hate the value down back which means paying full price and I hate that even more! So conflicted!
Across the formats and my draft teams I either started or traded into before price changes: Cumming, Dale, Hind, Ziebell, Heppell, Impey, Daniher, Jiath (technically had a price change in AFLF), Aliir, Walker and Atkins. That's across a total of 6 teams but I can say that outside of Walker and Aliir I considered every single one of them at round 1.
This year's group isn't as strong at this point but it must be said that the major guys to target in that price range aren't even known yet because they'll be the position change guys, predominantly you're looking for genuine midfield roles or rebounding defender roles. Of that group Daniher and Heppell (to a degree) are the only guys who were returning from injury, Walker was a flat out unpickable miracle, Aliir was from a coach who hated him playing him out of position. Cumming and Jiath was just getting a run in the team but the main guys and the most solid were Ziebell (albeit, he does fit in injury but that's not his main driver), Hind, Dale and Impey who got genuine HBF roles.
Now part of that many success stories making that change is there will be imitations but also there are now a lot less available slots.
Coleman and Rioli are the two very obvious ones right now, they made the changes last year and they both played very well and scored well doing it. Doesn't hurt that both their sides also had their secondary rebounder from last year retire.
Coniglio is an obvious Heppell type of story, years of well above pass level scoring and the captain of the side. He's best 22 if fit and the if fit is the only question. Like Ziebell last year, not picking him will be a bigger risk if he's fit.
Berry only has one year of huge scoring but the 2 years prior to that are well and truly pass level scoring for his price and he's got the ability to put up very big scores which are huge for cash generation.
Rest need to find their way into the sunshine but I'm confident we should find a half dozen good targets in that price range, ultimately it comes down to if the rookies look good and the extra cash can be better used elsewhere.
I do think that the position changes will inflate primarily the forward pass mark this year and that as a result the chance of getting a keeper from any of those guys except for Coniglio is not high, although Coleman and Rioli are both DPP and could scrape in down back but I don't see that going below 100 either so it's unlikely.
It's actually funny how differently we can all see a group of players. I've personally moved my forward pass mark to 100, which basically means I expect there to be 8 guys above that mark at seasons end and thus to have a F6 that's below that you need to have paid peanuts for it.
For mine I think all of the following have very strong 100+ cases:
Dunkley
Duncan
Taranto
Hawkins
Stringer
Martin
Wingard
Treloar
English
De Goey
Heeney
Coniglio
Then I also think Thomas, Butters, McKay, Dixon, Bolton, Graham, Sidebottom and Greene can have good cases made.
Throw in the likes of Danger, Petracca, Marshall, Gawn, Fyfe and Yeo who all are chances to get FWD tag among many others and it could be a very loaded position.
To be clear, not saying they all will score 100+ just that I can very easily paint the story for them doing it. Heck for several of those it's easier to paint that they will than they wont.
It's so hard as I see great value in the group but also know that someone like a Marshall or Danger getting FWD status and you've got 5 forwards can actually derail your season (another reason I don't like invisible position changes) as suddenly your F5/6 types are WAY under par.
Right now I'm finding it very hard to strike the balance in team building between allowing the flexibility for those changes, which primarily hit the forwards, and also taking the best value starting picks which, imo, are also in the forwards. Like I'd ideally start 2-3 premium forwards at most but that generally means more backs and I hate the value down back which means paying full price and I hate that even more! So conflicted!
People have the caught the key thread here pretty well I reckon...
With the DPP incoming mid-season, there's every chance a second tier midfielder averaging a nothing 97 becomes a FWD and surges into relevance. If you're loaded up with sub-premium picks that are sitting closer to 90 it starts to hurt.
So as @wogitalia was saying, I think you want a FWD premo pick to look like they will hit 100. If you can't find those starting picks, go for value instead and trade up.
With the DPP incoming mid-season, there's every chance a second tier midfielder averaging a nothing 97 becomes a FWD and surges into relevance. If you're loaded up with sub-premium picks that are sitting closer to 90 it starts to hurt.
So as @wogitalia was saying, I think you want a FWD premo pick to look like they will hit 100. If you can't find those starting picks, go for value instead and trade up.