Position 2022: Ruck Discussion

[NT.Thunder]

Would love to start Darcy but having watched just about every game of his career I am worried about his durability. Yeah I know he's come back in ripping shape and that he played 21 games in 2021 but he is highly injury prone and often carrying something even if he is playing. He's like the Anthony Davis of the AFL, makes for a nervous watch a lot of the time. Doesn't take much for him to have a real shocker to miss some games or tank his price.

Leaning towards Gawn+Grundy combo again myself, or taking the risk on Preuss on the field if he looks good throughout the pre-season.

Early days though! The scoring potential is obviously there for Darcy to be the number 1 ruck.

I remember a very similar thought I had when Gawn first had his break out season. I didn't pick him for this exact reason and it killed me, I'm cautious now with that mentality.

I'm also cautious of picking someone and hoping or more like praying they'll get DPP like Marshall. There's a lot of water to flow under the bridge regarding a positional change and if it doesn't happen it might backfire.

I'm still keen to look at Grundy and Darcy, Gawns always an option but I think if I don't start Gawn I may take a punt on Jackson, why not, if I think he's going to impact Gawns scoring then he might very well be a handy R/F

 

[Connoisseur]

O McInerney:
2020 HTA: 24.9%
2021 HTA: 32.6%

2021:
Pre Bye: 3/11 with 12 or more disposals.
Post Bye: 10/10 with 12 or more disposals

 

[Leroy]

Also doesn't make a heap of sense because Daniher was only second ruck in the middle of the season, Fullerton was the second ruck for weeks 1-4 and 18-23. He had more than three HOs more often than not in that stretch too.

I think there's a bit of a story there either way.
Fullarton (bean pole that he is) didn't offer much as a second ruck, so after 4 games he got dropped. Daniher had those higher hitout games from there to the bye, and Big O got past 100 only once.

Then Hipwood got injured and Daniher was forced to stay at home more: less hitouts for him, more contests for Big O. From there, something clicked: being the big solo ruck and having to do it all paid off - hello 115 average.

Fullarton coming back in R18 doesn't do much, as he's a pretty ineffective ruck anyway. We know that Big O attended the most ruck contests of any ruck in the later part of the year.

So the question is: in 2022, do Brisbane let Big O roam far and wide and be the solo big man (while giving Fullarton game time)? Or do they play Fort/Daniher as forwards who chop out in the ruck and take contests away from Oscar?

Don't know at all, but it remains a question that throws some doubt over McInerney.

 

[Herbie66]

I think there's a bit of a story there either way.
Fullarton (bean pole that he is) didn't offer much as a second ruck, so after 4 games he got dropped. Daniher had those higher hitout games from there to the bye, and Big O got past 100 only once.

Then McStay got injured and Daniher was forced to stay at home more: less hitouts for him, more contests for Big O. From there, something clicked: being the big solo ruck and having to do it all paid off - hello 115 average.

Fullarton coming back in R18 doesn't do much, as he's a pretty ineffective ruck anyway. We know that Big O attended the most ruck contests of any ruck in the later part of the year.

So the question is: in 2022, do Brisbane let Big O roam far and wide and be the solo big man (while giving Fullarton game time)? Or do they play Fort/Daniher as forwards who chop out in the ruck and take contests away from Oscar?

Don't know at all, but it remains a question that throws some doubt over McInerney.

McStay actually played every game from Round 5.

Fullarton returned when Hipwood got injured

 

[Leroy]

O McInerney:
2020 HTA: 24.9%
2021 HTA: 32.6%

2021:
Pre Bye: 3/11 with 12 or more disposals.
Post Bye: 10/10 with 12 or more disposals

Do you have a breakdown for pre/post bye in 2021? Would give an indication as to whether it was just more ruck contests vs a sustained increases in HTA that delivered the score improvement.

 

[Leroy]

McStay actually played every game from Round 5.

Fullarton returned when Hopwood got injured

Hah whoops, it was Hipwood

 

[Herbie66]

Hah whoops, it was Hipwood

Can see them playing Big O , Daniher , Fort & McStay until Hipwood returns.

Pretty sure Fort played KPD , ruck & key forward when he was at Central District

 

[Shannon]

Do you have a breakdown for pre/post bye in 2021? Would give an indication as to whether it was just more ruck contests vs a sustained increases in HTA that delivered the score improvement.

Averaged 78 up until Brisbane’s round 13 bye McInerney went on to average 113 Supercoach points in his last 10 games.

Oscar had averaged just 37 Supercoach HTA points up until the bye. He came home earning an average of 60 HTA points per game in his last 10.

But who did he come up against in the ruck?

He faced Sean Darcy, Brodie Grundy, Nic Nat and Gawn in consecutive games from round 21 onwards, averaging 119 Supercoach points.

 

[freowho]

So the question is: in 2022, do Brisbane let Big O roam far and wide and be the solo big man (while giving Fullarton game time)? Or do they play Fort/Daniher as forwards who chop out in the ruck and take contests away from Oscar?

Don't know at all, but it remains a question that throws some doubt over McInerney.

***an said they would like to give him more support this year. Usually means a bit more sharing of the role.

 

[wogitalia]

OMc finished huge and has a great midfield to help him out. Don't think it's a coincidence how much Grundy has fallen with the midfield also falling off under him, the good rucks go further ahead and the average rucks can look good with elite midfielders stopping it going awry!

He definitely feels the most likely of the non-premium group to get to the 115 point.

I actually weirdly like NicNat if their midfield is healthy but he'd be a ballsy as all hell pick, that's for sure. Having said that, for all the talk of how well Darcy finished and how badly Gawn finish, NicNat averaged 122 over his last 12 last year, I don't think that little aspect should be forgotten either, he definitely seemed to get his swagger back as the season went on.

Again, still a big call and will need to look amazing in preseason as he's as notorious as Darcy for dogging the preseason, would be so weird to start those two, that's for sure

 

[Bermi]

Currently, McInerney is having a very strong pre-season, and if he has no set backs, fitness should not be an issue for him to do the majority of the ruck work. He is clearly Brisbane's best ruckman, so logically, I see McInerney taking the majority of the ruck work and only rested when tired.

The fitter he is, the less rest/support he will need. And if he is rested more, then possibly he could score more SC points playing fresher?
He ticks a lot of boxes. I'm tempted to start with him.

2021 Season Review: Oscar McInerney (lions.com.au)
...........McInerney now sits in the ‘elite’ category in clearances, hitouts and hitouts to advantage.
It’s scary to think that this was only his first season at the ruck helm. Lions fans will be excited to see what 2022 holds........

Season Averages
Disposals - 13.1 (above-average)
Total Clearances - 5.5 (elite)
Hitouts - 29.2 (elite)
Hitouts to Advantage - 9.4 (elite)
Marks - 2.3

 

[Connoisseur]

Do you have a breakdown for pre/post bye in 2021? Would give an indication as to whether it was just more ruck contests vs a sustained increases in HTA that delivered the score improvement.

AFL Stats Pro section on the AFL website usually has the game by game breakdown when you select the required filters for a particular player but I have had trouble with this over the past week, as I was trying to look for these for R Marshall.

 

[Leroy]

Currently, McInerney is having a very strong pre-season, and if he has no set backs, fitness should not be an issue for him to do the majority of the ruck work. He is clearly Brisbane's best ruckman, so logically, I see McInerney taking the majority of the ruck work and only rested when tired.

The fitter he is, the less rest/support he will need. And if he is rested more, then possibly he could score more SC points playing fresher?
He ticks a lot of boxes. I'm tempted to start with him.

2021 Season Review: Oscar McInerney (lions.com.au)
...........McInerney now sits in the ‘elite’ category in clearances, hitouts and hitouts to advantage.
It’s scary to think that this was only his first season at the ruck helm. Lions fans will be excited to see what 2022 holds........

Season Averages
Disposals - 13.1 (above-average)
Total Clearances - 5.5 (elite)
Hitouts - 29.2 (elite)
Hitouts to Advantage - 9.4 (elite)
Marks - 2.3

I'd love to start him over someone like Grundy at R2. But as the team sits, the extra $100k isn't doing much and feels like I'm locking in a 105-115 type player instead of a 110-120 player.
I know the numbers say that's good value but... hmmm

 

[Bermi]

I'd love to start him over someone like Grundy at R2. But as the team sits, the extra $100k isn't doing much and feels like I'm locking in a 105-115 type player instead of a 110-120 player.
I know the numbers say that's good value but... hmmm

I haven't really got a team done yet, just mainly putting players on my list, in order of preference, that I like to start with. Only some I have locked in. I'm waiting to see which Rookies are playing round 1, the players pre-season and their confirmed roles, before I select my full team. McInerney is not locked in, but high on my preference list.

 

[freowho]

I haven't really got a team done yet, just mainly putting players on my list, in order of preference, that I like to start with. Only some I have locked in. I'm waiting to see which Rookies are playing round 1, the players pre-season and their confirmed roles, before I select my full team. McInerney is not locked in, but high on my preference list.

I do the same. I don't create a team until I've seen preseason games and just keep updating lists of preferences. I have a list for Captains, Rucks, Rookies regardless of position and then keepers in each position. Occasionally I might bypass a preference for a bit of balance but otherwise I let the cards fall as they will.

 

[Shaunpro1]

I do the same. I don't create a team until I've seen preseason games and just keep updating lists of preferences. I have a list for Captains, Rucks, Rookies regardless of position and then keepers in each position. Occasionally I might bypass a preference for a bit of balance but otherwise I let the cards fall as they will.

Honestly I just fill a general team at launch and dont even look at it until March, always thought playing around now is largely pointless.

 

[GrainFedBeef]

OMc finished huge and has a great midfield to help him out. Don't think it's a coincidence how much Grundy has fallen with the midfield also falling off under him, the good rucks go further ahead and the average rucks can look good with elite midfielders stopping it going awry!

He definitely feels the most likely of the non-premium group to get to the 115 point.

I actually weirdly like NicNat if their midfield is healthy but he'd be a ballsy as all hell pick, that's for sure. Having said that, for all the talk of how well Darcy finished and how badly Gawn finish, NicNat averaged 122 over his last 12 last year, I don't think that little aspect should be forgotten either, he definitely seemed to get his swagger back as the season went on.

Again, still a big call and will need to look amazing in preseason as he's as notorious as Darcy for dogging the preseason, would be so weird to start those two, that's for sure

Yeah. Nic Nat was let of the leash and his TOG picked up as Easles became more desperate to hold onto finals spot.

 

[Connoisseur]

Honestly I just fill a general team at launch and dont even look at it until March, always thought playing around now is largely pointless.

So no benefit to be gained by playing around with multiple structures in periods that we are less likely to be time poor?

 

[dlanod]

Donald, what are your thoughts on O Mac for this season?

Any chance of getting close to the Darcy’s and Grundy’s of the world do you think?

I'm hoping as many people as possible start with him because they'll be teams I don't need to worry about for overall.

I like him as a player and more than many other Lions supporters but it seems really unlikely for him to develop the game to crack out a 120+ average. He doesn't rack the ball up around the ground. He's not really dominant in the ruck. He can take a great contested mark but that's basically dropped out of his game now because he rests on the bench instead of playing up forward.

I can see him averaging in the 100-110 range off his rucking and a modicum of around the ground work, like ROB did a couple of years ago or Goldy/Hickey last year but that's not keeper material to me unless he was substantially cheaper.

I think there's a bit of a story there either way.
Fullarton (bean pole that he is) didn't offer much as a second ruck, so after 4 games he got dropped. Daniher had those higher hitout games from there to the bye, and Big O got past 100 only once.

Then Hipwood got injured and Daniher was forced to stay at home more: less hitouts for him, more contests for Big O. From there, something clicked: being the big solo ruck and having to do it all paid off - hello 115 average.

Fullarton coming back in R18 doesn't do much, as he's a pretty ineffective ruck anyway. We know that Big O attended the most ruck contests of any ruck in the later part of the year.

So the question is: in 2022, do Brisbane let Big O roam far and wide and be the solo big man (while giving Fullarton game time)? Or do they play Fort/Daniher as forwards who chop out in the ruck and take contests away from Oscar?

Don't know at all, but it remains a question that throws some doubt over McInerney.

Main point is that I wouldn't trace McInerney's scoring to the playing of other players. And Daniher was worse in the ruck than Fullarton, as he would frequently not even contest.

Oscar was coming back from injury in the first half, missed another game to interrupt him, and then really rounded into solid form at the end while also taking advantage of easier matchups. I don't think we need to invent further narratives just by playing around with stats.

 

[Bermi]

.......... he rests on the bench instead of playing up forward...........

...............Daniher was worse in the ruck than Fullarton.........

...........then really rounded into solid form at the end while also taking advantage of easier matchups. I don't think we need to invent further narratives just by playing around with stats.

I found your comments good.

Interesting that you said he rests on the bench and not somewhere else on the field, agree, that will not help McInerney's scoring.

If Daniher and Fullarton are poor ruckmen, then I can see why Brisbane traded in Fort, maybe not so much to help out McInerney, but to help the Brisbane's team.
Do you think Fort will play? If so, they rotate off the bench?

In McInerney's last 5 games, he played against Dockers, Magpies, Eagles and Demons, where he scored 120, 131, 96 and 127 SC pts. I tthought he did very well against the top ruckmen.