Position 2022: Forward Discussion

[Bomber18]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1489492077998387212

View: https://twitter.com/aflratingspete/status/1489492077998387212?s=21


Struggling to copy and paste on the iPhone again but JPK will explore new roles in 2022 (decreasing his mid time), letting the next generation of mids take over.

 

[Shannon]

Understanding that you think 90 is Allen's maximum ppg.
But I think I would be satisfied with that result.
In an earlier post (#202 in the thread SC BBL|11: Rolling Perfect Team [Post #157 onwards]) I worked out that last year's SC overall winner averaged about 103 ppg - per player across the season.
If we assume there is a position-by-position distribution around the average - that our big-guns at M1, M2, R1 etc. would be pumping out bigger numbers than 103, then the lower positions such as F4/F5 will be contributing something less. Quite possibly a 90 from there is OK.
In fact if we get 90 until the byes, we can look for a sling-shot upgrade and F4/F5 might lift to an even higher seasonal average.
Considering we could get Allen at 63ppg, perhaps a 90 would not be a fail after all.

Would still like to hear the other WCE regulars @Shannon, @GrainFedBee, @Eagling etc think of Allen's prospects in 2022..

Just saw this sorry.

Love Oscar as a player & he is having a great preseason, looks set to essentially be the 2nd tall fwd with JK (assuming no Darling). He should improve his scoring but I just think there are better options out there, hard to justify taking him over the likes of Coniglio & Curnow for example when they are priced cheaper than him.

 

[wogitalia]

Understanding that you think 90 is Allen's maximum ppg.
But I think I would be satisfied with that result.
In an earlier post (#202 in the thread SC BBL|11: Rolling Perfect Team [Post #157 onwards]) I worked out that last year's SC overall winner averaged about 103 ppg - per player across the season.
If we assume there is a position-by-position distribution around the average - that our big-guns at M1, M2, R1 etc. would be pumping out bigger numbers than 103, then the lower positions such as F4/F5 will be contributing something less. Quite possibly a 90 from there is OK.
In fact if we get 90 until the byes, we can look for a sling-shot upgrade and F4/F5 might lift to an even higher seasonal average.
Considering we could get Allen at 63ppg, perhaps a 90 would not be a fail after all.

Would still like to hear the other WCE regulars @Shannon, @GrainFedBee, @Eagling etc think of Allen's prospects in 2022..

@Rowsus had a great post in his AMA thread regarding the hidden costs on picking players to be a starting F6, highly recommend reading it as it's spot on. Basically you shouldn't be picking a player whose ceiling is on the low end of not good enough, you need the absolute best case to have a working starting pick.

I really like Allen, I'll look at him in draft leagues for sure, but I don't think he's a great pick, with the DPP changes the floor for forward premiums gets raised and you're just not leaving any room for failure. I wouldn't be surprised if he pushes the mid 80s to even low 90s but I also wouldn't be shocked if he's in the 70s, being a more stay at home forward as a KP guy isn't always better for scoring that that 3rd tall roaming role he has played to date, you face better defenders and less freedom.

 

[manyproblems]

All the talk up North is about Rayner, 280k odd. More mid time, pumped up by teammates and is racking up the pill in intraclubs (against the B side though).

Hard one to read, off an ACL it seems unlikely but by all reports he's fully over it. Still question marks on if he can run out games well with solid mid minutes, no evidence of it thus far. Not in my side at the moment if he ticks a few boxes in the AAMI game then worth a look I think. Had written him off prior to today.

 

[Eagling]

Understanding that you think 90 is Allen's maximum ppg.
But I think I would be satisfied with that result.
In an earlier post (#202 in the thread SC BBL|11: Rolling Perfect Team [Post #157 onwards]) I worked out that last year's SC overall winner averaged about 103 ppg - per player across the season.
If we assume there is a position-by-position distribution around the average - that our big-guns at M1, M2, R1 etc. would be pumping out bigger numbers than 103, then the lower positions such as F4/F5 will be contributing something less. Quite possibly a 90 from there is OK.
In fact if we get 90 until the byes, we can look for a sling-shot upgrade and F4/F5 might lift to an even higher seasonal average.
Considering we could get Allen at 63ppg, perhaps a 90 would not be a fail after all.

Would still like to hear the other WCE regulars @Shannon, @GrainFedBee, @Eagling etc think of Allen's prospects in 2022..

Yeah wouldn't be looking at him in Classic. Could be a decent last forward option in Draft though.

 

[dlanod]

All the talk up North is about Rayner, 280k odd. More mid time, pumped up by teammates and is racking up the pill in intraclubs (against the B side though).

Hard one to read, off an ACL it seems unlikely but by all reports he's fully over it. Still question marks on if he can run out games well with solid mid minutes, no evidence of it thus far. Not in my side at the moment if he ticks a few boxes in the AAMI game then worth a look I think. Had written him off prior to today.

Nah.

He's just a really popular guy, great cultural fit in the club, coming off a major injury. He's going to be pumped up and front and centre, but it's going to take a hell of a preseason display to even get on my radar.

 

[Herbie66]

@dlanod

Much to this talk of Zorko playing defence this season ?

 

[Shaunpro1]

At 224k there is not much risk at all specially in the fwd line. Expensive rookie price averages 80 he will make you a 150k. If named round 1, lock him in.

I think Brodie is more likely to average 60 than 80 myself, fair enough he had that 80 season in 2019 but he was a core midfielder then, thats not going to happen at Freo for mine.

 

[dlanod]

@dlanod

Much to this talk of Zorko playing defence this season ?

I'll believe it when he gets on the park. Still not taking part in match sims, and Fagan has trialled players in different positions during preseason before only to revert to the tried and true positions come the season proper.

 

[Herbie66]

I'll believe it when he gets on the park. Still not taking part in match sims, and ***an has trialled players in different positions during preseason before only to revert to the tried and true positions come the season proper.

Appreciate the response.

Ideal time to trial a few things now , then know you can use it during the season if need be.

 

[wogitalia]

I think Brodie is more likely to average 60 than 80 myself, fair enough he had that 80 season in 2019 but he was a core midfielder then, thats not going to happen at Freo for mine.

Brodie is that odd one, I think he's more of an 80+ or bust type. Either he gets the only role he's good at it and makes a go of it or he's playing that role in the WAFL. In fact I actually think he's a 90+ guy. He's very similar to an Anthony Miles for mine, guy who averages 90+ as an inside midfielder quite easily and struggles to even play as anything else.

Unless he's magically completely changed as a player I just don't see him as anything close to AFL standard at anything but inside midfielder.

If he does play 10+ games as a HF, he'll struggle to go much over 60 though, agree entirely.

I do think there is a spot there at Freo, think Fyfe and Mundy both need to phase out this year, Fyfe should move forward more to protect him, especially with his o***eason issues, and Mundy needs to be used outside while they find their inside mix, Brodie is the clear cut obvious option for that alongside Serong and Brayshaw who both are more hybrid guys that aren't pure at either inside or outside play. It sounds like Tucker is ahead of the game for that role though at this point.

I'll believe it when he gets on the park. Still not taking part in match sims, and ***an has trialled players in different positions during preseason before only to revert to the tried and true positions come the season proper.

If he did it would be bad news for Coleman but very solid news for Berry and Rayner.

Agree entirely though on the believe it when I see it narrative. It doesn't really make sense to me either. You've got Rich already there, Coleman looked fantastic last year, Madden/Answerth are also very good prospects. I don't know why you'd move an All-Australian level HF, one of the most difficult positions in the AFL, to HBF, almost unquestionably the easiest role. That's just bad coaching and Fagan has been a generally very good coach so I just don't see it.

 

[Connoisseur]

@freowho

Thoughts on L Henry as a forward selection this season given the news about Longmuir wanting to play him further up the ground this season?

 

[freowho]

@freowho

Thoughts on L Henry as a forward selection this season given the news about Longmuir wanting to play him further up the ground this season?

Even though he had a poor role you'd still like to see a supercoach heartbeat and I can't see it. He turned 15 disopsals and a goal in rnd 23 into 64 points.

 

[wogitalia]

Even though he had a poor role you'd still like to see a supercoach heartbeat and I can't see it. He turned 15 disopsals and a goal in rnd 23 into 64 points.

This, he's got quality but he's allergic to the pill at times and to this point has shown literally nothing as a tackler which given how slight he is isn't unexpected but tackling has never been a size thing as much as a will thing.

Would think if he could match Pickett last year it would be an absolutely outstanding result for him, I expect they'll try and use him similarly as well with bursts at CBA and then forward.

Kid has a lot of quality though and think Freo have got something there but I'm not sure if he'll ever be fantasy relevant and I just struggle to see him putting up 70+ in a best case scenario and that's really where his breakeven point would be.

One of those ones to just enjoy watching them play and forget them for fantasy

 

[Shannon]

Butters, Heeney & Tarryn Thomas are so tempting, I am considering taking all of them thus leaving Coniglio at F4 & Curnow at F5.
Big worry though is not starting Dunkley with his ability to go massive along with Duncan … much to contemplate 🤔

 

[Stormzy]

Tristan Xerri is one that I'm looking at. Reports saying that he has had one of the best preseasons and could be having a look at the number 1 ruck position and even if he shares it 50/50 with Goldy surely that's worth a punt at 208k especially better then the role someone like a JHF is getting at the same price with the DDP swing that could be useful during the byes

 

[wogitalia]

Butters, Heeney & Tarryn Thomas are so tempting, I am considering taking all of them thus leaving Coniglio at F4 & Curnow at F5.
Big worry though is not starting Dunkley with his ability to go massive along with Duncan … much to contemplate 🤔

Dunkley will be role dependent but for me he's the "must start" of he and Duncan.

Dunkley in the right role is a genuine 120+ guy, huge hurt factor if you don't have him. If the position looks all off he's worth shading but if it doesn't then I think you just have to start him.

As good as Duncan is, he's pretty fairly priced on his last 3 seasons and has had a solid downward trend in both points and games played over those 3 years, especially compared to his previous couple of years. Duncan for mine shouldn't move in price. There are a couple of roles he could shift to that might alter that feeling but for me he's a solid 95-105 guy and will be priced in that range all season.

I have Butters the lowest of those 3 but I do love him as a player.

I think Heeney is a legitimate 105+ candidate this year with the role change, if Mills is out early or underdone that just becomes even stronger. Durability will always be a concern but he's ~15 points on his 4 year average so he's just got too much proven upside to care about that if his preseason remains excellent.

Thomas I think is more of a 95-105 guy although there's definitely a 105+ guy in there, just think it's another year or two away but happy to be proven wrong on that. The way he finished last year he made 100+ look kind of effortless, there wasn't anything he was doing that was unsustainable to me and, if anything, there was room for improvement. His role needs to be monitored with lots of changes at North but he's too talented for them to push him to the backseat, imo, for basically anyone else they've got.

Butters the durability last year was a concern and he's definitely the least proven of the 3 for scoring, having never really done the whole 95+ for a season or even half a season thing but he's shown the ability to score huge last year (163 and a 96 that scaled backwards from half time after being injured). Role is everything but in the right one he could be anything. He's a lot harder to put a range on for me because I genuinely have no idea what role he might play and even if he does have one it can change at the mercy of musical chairs Ken.

I love several other guys in that price group as well including JDG, Stringer, Bolton and Graham among others to all be potential 100+ guys this year. God I'd feel dirty picking that latter group though, which means they're probably the ones and I'll look stupid taking the ones I like

 

[wogitalia]

Tristan Xerri is one that I'm looking at. Reports saying that he has had one of the best preseasons and could be having a look at the number 1 ruck position and even if he shares it 50/50 with Goldy surely that's worth a punt at 208k especially better then the role someone like a JHF is getting at the same price with the DDP swing that could be useful during the byes

Issue with him is if he ends up in a 70/30 split and doesn't get the DPP or score well enough to justify the price premium. Goldy was better last year in ruck shares but he's always struggled with them and sacrificing one of their genuine advantages is always going to be a hard sell. I actually really like Xerri as a ruck prospect but he's been very ordinary as a forward so he'd need to be getting some very real ruck minutes. I genuinely feel like I'm being very generous with that description of his forward efforts as well!

 

[Under The Dome]

Tristan Xerri is one that I'm looking at. Reports saying that he has had one of the best preseasons and could be having a look at the number 1 ruck position and even if he shares it 50/50 with Goldy surely that's worth a punt at 208k especially better then the role someone like a JHF is getting at the same price with the DDP swing that could be useful during the byes

I read this the other day from Noble:

"I think the competition is between Callum and Tristan, that's the competition," Noble told AFL.com.au in an exclusive interview at Arden Street this week.

"We shouldn't discount Tristan. We went hard to keep him because we really value him. His pre-season has been outstanding. I reckon he's been in our top-three or four performers this pre-season.

"That internal competition is really growing and I think Todd knows that as well. We'd like to play two rucks, so it will be interesting over the next two or three weeks to see where that lands.

"We'll give all three of those guys an opportunity, both forward and in the ruck. At the end of the day, you pick the two best ones."
https://www.afl.com.au/news/700853/xerri-on-top-roos-ruck-pecking-order-takes-complicated-twist

 

[BIGB0Y]

Dunkley will be role dependent but for me he's the "must start" of he and Duncan.

Dunkley in the right role is a genuine 120+ guy, huge hurt factor if you don't have him. If the position looks all off he's worth shading but if it doesn't then I think you just have to start him.

As good as Duncan is, he's pretty fairly priced on his last 3 seasons and has had a solid downward trend in both points and games played over those 3 years, especially compared to his previous couple of years. Duncan for mine shouldn't move in price. There are a couple of roles he could shift to that might alter that feeling but for me he's a solid 95-105 guy and will be priced in that range all season.

I have Butters the lowest of those 3 but I do love him as a player.

I think Heeney is a legitimate 105+ candidate this year with the role change, if Mills is out early or underdone that just becomes even stronger. Durability will always be a concern but he's ~15 points on his 4 year average so he's just got too much proven upside to care about that if his preseason remains excellent.

Thomas I think is more of a 95-105 guy although there's definitely a 105+ guy in there, just think it's another year or two away but happy to be proven wrong on that. The way he finished last year he made 100+ look kind of effortless, there wasn't anything he was doing that was unsustainable to me and, if anything, there was room for improvement. His role needs to be monitored with lots of changes at North but he's too talented for them to push him to the backseat, imo, for basically anyone else they've got.

Butters the durability last year was a concern and he's definitely the least proven of the 3 for scoring, having never really done the whole 95+ for a season or even half a season thing but he's shown the ability to score huge last year (163 and a 96 that scaled backwards from half time after being injured). Role is everything but in the right one he could be anything. He's a lot harder to put a range on for me because I genuinely have no idea what role he might play and even if he does have one it can change at the mercy of musical chairs Ken.

I love several other guys in that price group as well including JDG, Stringer, Bolton and Graham among others to all be potential 100+ guys this year. God I'd feel dirty picking that latter group though, which means they're probably the ones and I'll look stupid taking the ones I like

Butters or de goey?