Position 2022: Forward Discussion
- Thread starter KLo30
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I see no real reason why they couldn't take the hand brake off Starcevich and use someone else to defend and is actually something I've been surprised they havent done to date, easier to do if Answerth can stay fit aswell, he was recruited as a genuine utility after all has that natural attacking flair deep down.
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He's been basically 94+ 4 times in bad roles, occasionally he has floated across half back, where he scored great, and those higher seasons were basically when he got more midfield time.
Agree entirely that the body is his biggest issue but role has also always been a big issue. Look at the likes of Bont, Greene, Martin and Petracca, they're all guys capable of going 120+ as midfielders that score in the 80-100 type range as forwards, the fact that Heeney has pretty much matched or bettered those guys playing forward is a pretty strong indicator of just how good he actually is and, yes, I absolutely think he's in that quality of player's company.
Having said all that, slightest sign of preseason injury niggles and I'll run to the hills like I always have on him. His durability record is really bad at this point and it's really just the fact that he's 15 points underpriced on previous bad roles with the hope of a much better role that has me looking his way. I feel pretty safe that I'm getting an F6 from him if he's basically what he's always been and I feel really good about getting an F1 level scorer if he's fit and the role is as advertised and with Dawson and Hewett gone and JPK moving out there are 3 spots, all of which he'd score amazing in, that are available. Throw in Mills likely to be eased in and realistically there's 4. There's actually a part of me that thinks the wing would be the better role for him because he's more likely to stay fit with a much lower level of contact and his marking ability would make him an absolute weapon there (think Riewoldt/Richo, he'd have similar aerial advantage over other wingers), his scoring ability is higher as an inside mid but I'm not sure if he can hold up there.
It probably could but I think you still want to be aiming 90 to pick that price range, then you can miss by 10 and have a win, if you're looking at an 80 guy it only takes a couple of bad changes and the pick is in the tank.
Probably also depends on scoring patterns, if he looks set to bang out some big scores then the price change could be there regardless and he strikes me as a guy who could take over a few games.
Went up to ~16 when playing in defense though, bit disingenuous to ignore that factor.
For comparison's sake
Hind - 9.8 as a forward. 22 last year.
Impey - 9.2 as a forward. 22 last year.
Dale - 9.2 as a forward. 25 last year.
Ziebell - 8 as a forward. 20 as a midfielder the year before. 25 last year.
It's hard to understate how much easier HBF is than forward pocket. Even the elite forward pockets aren't getting much more than 12 or 13 touches a game.
Agree entirely that the body is his biggest issue but role has also always been a big issue. Look at the likes of Bont, Greene, Martin and Petracca, they're all guys capable of going 120+ as midfielders that score in the 80-100 type range as forwards, the fact that Heeney has pretty much matched or bettered those guys playing forward is a pretty strong indicator of just how good he actually is and, yes, I absolutely think he's in that quality of player's company.
Having said all that, slightest sign of preseason injury niggles and I'll run to the hills like I always have on him. His durability record is really bad at this point and it's really just the fact that he's 15 points underpriced on previous bad roles with the hope of a much better role that has me looking his way. I feel pretty safe that I'm getting an F6 from him if he's basically what he's always been and I feel really good about getting an F1 level scorer if he's fit and the role is as advertised and with Dawson and Hewett gone and JPK moving out there are 3 spots, all of which he'd score amazing in, that are available. Throw in Mills likely to be eased in and realistically there's 4. There's actually a part of me that thinks the wing would be the better role for him because he's more likely to stay fit with a much lower level of contact and his marking ability would make him an absolute weapon there (think Riewoldt/Richo, he'd have similar aerial advantage over other wingers), his scoring ability is higher as an inside mid but I'm not sure if he can hold up there.
It probably could but I think you still want to be aiming 90 to pick that price range, then you can miss by 10 and have a win, if you're looking at an 80 guy it only takes a couple of bad changes and the pick is in the tank.
Probably also depends on scoring patterns, if he looks set to bang out some big scores then the price change could be there regardless and he strikes me as a guy who could take over a few games.
Went up to ~16 when playing in defense though, bit disingenuous to ignore that factor.
For comparison's sake
Hind - 9.8 as a forward. 22 last year.
Impey - 9.2 as a forward. 22 last year.
Dale - 9.2 as a forward. 25 last year.
Ziebell - 8 as a forward. 20 as a midfielder the year before. 25 last year.
It's hard to understate how much easier HBF is than forward pocket. Even the elite forward pockets aren't getting much more than 12 or 13 touches a game.
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Keidan Coleman definitely can score well in the half back role. Should hopefully improve on that with preseason training in the role.
Game 1: 9 kicks, 5 handballs, 5 marks, 2 tackles, 2 FF, 225 metres gained, 8 CP, 1 CL, 1 clanger, 70% TOG, 92% efficiency for 62 DT and 87 SC.
Game 2: 10 kicks, 8 handballs, 6 marks, 2 tackles, 2 FF, 304 metres gained, 9 CP, 1 CL, 3 clangers, 75% TOG, 72% efficiency for 74 DT and 90 SC.
Game 3: 9 kicks, 6 handballs, 2 marks, 3 tackles, 2 FF/3 FA, 307 metres gained, 10 CP, 3 clangers*, 91% TOG, 93% efficiency for 50 DT and 77 SC.
(There were two injuries in the game so the higher TOG expected.)
Game 1: 9 kicks, 5 handballs, 5 marks, 2 tackles, 2 FF, 225 metres gained, 8 CP, 1 CL, 1 clanger, 70% TOG, 92% efficiency for 62 DT and 87 SC.
Game 2: 10 kicks, 8 handballs, 6 marks, 2 tackles, 2 FF, 304 metres gained, 9 CP, 1 CL, 3 clangers, 75% TOG, 72% efficiency for 74 DT and 90 SC.
Game 3: 9 kicks, 6 handballs, 2 marks, 3 tackles, 2 FF/3 FA, 307 metres gained, 10 CP, 3 clangers*, 91% TOG, 93% efficiency for 50 DT and 77 SC.
(There were two injuries in the game so the higher TOG expected.)
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I like this view. Has been a 94-98 player regularly without having a great role and having injury interruptions.
If he gets a full pre season in he could push 100 even in the same role. If he then gets that midfield role he could go 105+.
Obviously injury is the big question mark but should be an easy call if he gets injured at all during pre season then he's a pass.
If he gets a full pre season in he could push 100 even in the same role. If he then gets that midfield role he could go 105+.
Obviously injury is the big question mark but should be an easy call if he gets injured at all during pre season then he's a pass.
There was mention of Starcevich being tried in the midfield at some point early in the o***eason, that doesn't seem to have gone anywhere though. I could see Starcevich developing more into a Vlaustin type, especially after Rich retires. He doesn't strike me as being a natural at that linebreaking run and carry style of play, whereas Coleman immediately made a huge difference to the team in that area.
Don't disagree, has twice averaged 98 doing it, last year though was the worst his role has been, previously he'd had stints at HB, Wing and midfield throughout the season, last year he got it towards the end but when he was forward he was 100% forward, was hard to watch as it really stifled what he's best at.
The more he can roam the better he is though, while he's really good as a forward, he's got much more scoreboard impact pushing forward from the midfield, similar to Petracca, Martin or Bont types, there is a half dozen midfielders in the league who can actually go with him when he pushes forward, every team has a lock down defender for his type and he struggles, Grimes for example consistently manhandles him. 3 of his biggest scoreboard impacts last year came after he moved to the high half forward/wing role and could push up the ground and then pickup a mismatch on the way back.
The more he can roam the better he is though, while he's really good as a forward, he's got much more scoreboard impact pushing forward from the midfield, similar to Petracca, Martin or Bont types, there is a half dozen midfielders in the league who can actually go with him when he pushes forward, every team has a lock down defender for his type and he struggles, Grimes for example consistently manhandles him. 3 of his biggest scoreboard impacts last year came after he moved to the high half forward/wing role and could push up the ground and then pickup a mismatch on the way back.
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Coleman is lined up to take the role, playing half back on the A team for Brisbane at training. Chris Scott put Clark on the Wing/HF after trolling us by playing him half back with kick ins during the AAMI game.
If Coleman plays that role well in the AAMI game, and is lined up there in round 1, he is in for me. Birchall has left a vacancy, whereas Clark was in over a few outs from memory (Duncan, forgot who else).
If Coleman plays that role well in the AAMI game, and is lined up there in round 1, he is in for me. Birchall has left a vacancy, whereas Clark was in over a few outs from memory (Duncan, forgot who else).
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So what you're saying is his supercoach to DT ratio is unsustainable! 
Those numbers are ok rather than great. He looks like a last resort pick to me if the rookie cupboard is bare.
Those numbers are ok rather than great. He looks like a last resort pick to me if the rookie cupboard is bare.
I am hoping those type of scores are his floor, when you think he wasn't amongst the main distributors. Will be my priority watch for preseason.
I'd say he is a safer pick in the forward line with plenty of bailout options.
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Nothing like those two for me.
Clark was talented but was clearly on the absolute fringe of their best 22, had genuine All-Australian level players filling his preferred roles and, well quite frankly, I never even thought about picking him last year because of the extreme job security and role issues. Coleman is already playing the role and one of the senior guys retired.
Aish is going back an awfully long time to the last time anyone considered him, can't even remember having considered him since his rookie season to be honest so not really sure about that comparison.
He's played a half dozen games as a HBF, multiple of which were in big finals. He looked really good and will score better in easier regular season games. There is also Birchall's retirement that is a major factor, he's now the clear and obvious 2nd rebounding defender in a side desperate for someone to fill that role that plays a lot of dour and defensive guys. Rich will be numero uno but there is a very clear path to the secondary role for Coleman and, again, he looked excellent in the role last year.
He looks a lot more like Impey, Hind or Dale last year, where he's got a very clearly defined role they want him to play, a couple of guys vacating the position and a great skillset to play the role.
If he doesn't look right in preseason then I'll dump him but based on his performance last year and the list changes, he's one of the best starting picks right now imo. When you can get a guy in a well defined 90+ type role, who fits the role perfectly, you have to have them high on your radar.
Rioli is very much the same for me but his price is a lot higher and makes him a far more speculative option.
Clark was talented but was clearly on the absolute fringe of their best 22, had genuine All-Australian level players filling his preferred roles and, well quite frankly, I never even thought about picking him last year because of the extreme job security and role issues. Coleman is already playing the role and one of the senior guys retired.
Aish is going back an awfully long time to the last time anyone considered him, can't even remember having considered him since his rookie season to be honest so not really sure about that comparison.
So what you're saying is his supercoach to DT ratio is unsustainable!
Those numbers are ok rather than great. He looks like a last resort pick to me if the rookie cupboard is bare.
Those numbers are ok rather than great. He looks like a last resort pick to me if the rookie cupboard is bare.
He looks a lot more like Impey, Hind or Dale last year, where he's got a very clearly defined role they want him to play, a couple of guys vacating the position and a great skillset to play the role.
If he doesn't look right in preseason then I'll dump him but based on his performance last year and the list changes, he's one of the best starting picks right now imo. When you can get a guy in a well defined 90+ type role, who fits the role perfectly, you have to have them high on your radar.
Rioli is very much the same for me but his price is a lot higher and makes him a far more speculative option.