Position 2022: Forward Discussion
- Thread starter KLo30
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Much more important to analyse why some guys worked and others didn't.
Looking at the only two that really failed last year in Young and Clark and it becomes abundantly clear that Young was just an unlucky injury (albeit a disturbing trendline) and Clark had all kinds of JS/Role issues (I honestly couldn't fit him in their best 22 when I was doing it and I really rate the kid as a player). Young even ended up making 100k over his games and would have made a lot more with a few more games, I'd argue he was a rock solid pick that just got unlucky.
Hind, Hall, Ziebell, Impey, Jiath, Dale, Atkins and Heppell were all picks that made a lot of sense (Heppell more so in AFL with the position changes which is where I took him), they all have some kind of issue you can find but they also all had a clearly defined role change to a very lucrative role having historically (Heppell and Ziebell aside) played in much more difficult roles.
Coleman could bust epically, anyone can, but if his role is the same as last year I find it very hard to go past him. There's not a lot of top 2 rebounders across the league that don't average 75+ in SC and most of those will pump out 100s with decent regularity to generate real cash gains.
Looking at the only two that really failed last year in Young and Clark and it becomes abundantly clear that Young was just an unlucky injury (albeit a disturbing trendline) and Clark had all kinds of JS/Role issues (I honestly couldn't fit him in their best 22 when I was doing it and I really rate the kid as a player). Young even ended up making 100k over his games and would have made a lot more with a few more games, I'd argue he was a rock solid pick that just got unlucky.
Hind, Hall, Ziebell, Impey, Jiath, Dale, Atkins and Heppell were all picks that made a lot of sense (Heppell more so in AFL with the position changes which is where I took him), they all have some kind of issue you can find but they also all had a clearly defined role change to a very lucrative role having historically (Heppell and Ziebell aside) played in much more difficult roles.
Coleman could bust epically, anyone can, but if his role is the same as last year I find it very hard to go past him. There's not a lot of top 2 rebounders across the league that don't average 75+ in SC and most of those will pump out 100s with decent regularity to generate real cash gains.
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Not recently. I feel the entry price is far too high and I would be very wary given the Tigers recent history of not over possessing the ball and sharing the load which will restrict his ceiling and ability to make cash. Will need to be very reliant on high disposal efficiency to score well and would prefer to defer to a more knowledgeable member about his intercept or general marking ability.
If opting for Rioli, then I like the decision for him to be paired with a player (around a similar price range) that is very dispensable in your structure to allow you to grab a rookie and possibly a premium around the high $400,000 to low $500,000 range very early in the season if the selection does not go as planned.
If opting for Rioli, then I like the decision for him to be paired with a player (around a similar price range) that is very dispensable in your structure to allow you to grab a rookie and possibly a premium around the high $400,000 to low $500,000 range very early in the season if the selection does not go as planned.
I love Rioli in draft leagues, not as fond in the real stuff purely because of his price point.
Just seems like a 90-95 type season would be a very good result, I think the role will bring out the best in him and he'll do some big things but I think he's just a bit too expensive to generate the kind of cash that you need and I can't see him scoring quite well enough to be a premium.
Do think he's in the 85-95 range though. 85 average over the last 6 rounds in the role, full preseason of learning it should only improve that. Just not sure he'll get enough cheap ball this year to push higher than 95, he's more of a get and go guy than the type who will pick up a couple of +6 waiting for the lines to shift before going.
I've still got him on the radar just a little bit though but would be more if there are just no rookie options at all down back and/or up forward.
Just seems like a 90-95 type season would be a very good result, I think the role will bring out the best in him and he'll do some big things but I think he's just a bit too expensive to generate the kind of cash that you need and I can't see him scoring quite well enough to be a premium.
Do think he's in the 85-95 range though. 85 average over the last 6 rounds in the role, full preseason of learning it should only improve that. Just not sure he'll get enough cheap ball this year to push higher than 95, he's more of a get and go guy than the type who will pick up a couple of +6 waiting for the lines to shift before going.
I've still got him on the radar just a little bit though but would be more if there are just no rookie options at all down back and/or up forward.
Thanks very much @Connoisseur @wogitalia.
He’s at F4 for me and I do have Coleman at D5 as a potential pair (both DPP, and as one that could become premo + rookie), but I have almost no cash, so I think I may downgrade him and bank $100-200k.
He’s at F4 for me and I do have Coleman at D5 as a potential pair (both DPP, and as one that could become premo + rookie), but I have almost no cash, so I think I may downgrade him and bank $100-200k.
Thanks very much @Connoisseur @wogitalia.
He’s at F4 for me and I do have Coleman at D5 as a potential pair (both DPP, and as one that could become premo + rookie), but I have almost no cash, so I think I may downgrade him and bank $100-200k. Maybe a Curnow type to come in.
He’s at F4 for me and I do have Coleman at D5 as a potential pair (both DPP, and as one that could become premo + rookie), but I have almost no cash, so I think I may downgrade him and bank $100-200k. Maybe a Curnow type to come in.
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So what you're saying is his supercoach to DT ratio is unsustainable! 
Those numbers are ok rather than great. He looks like a last resort pick to me if the rookie cupboard is bare.
Those numbers are ok rather than great. He looks like a last resort pick to me if the rookie cupboard is bare.
I do find $270k player are mixed picks, Jiath was good last year, many others have not been. All depends on where the rookies drop. Going 4 premiums last year was ok, although, you can get caught up with those that step up and you get one wrong (normally first 2 choices are safe, it is pick 3/4). If he gets to $400k I will call it a win, anything above is a bonus.
By the end of last year Daniels was playing preferentially in the second string midfield grouping and looked a lot better for it. I don't know that he played as much forward for Taranto to "replace" to be concerned about, at least compared to Greene, but I do still think Taranto is more likely to be up forward than other options like Green.
Daniels was playing midfield in rounds 4-7 before getting hurt also and then also went back in from about round 17 onward.
I think it does hurt Taranto's midfield case because he's one of the few who can play forward adequately to allow him midfield run.
Reality is though that with their list Taranto shouldn't be getting midfield minutes, he's a better forward than all their other mids by a decent margin (Coniglio the only one who is close) and he's a weaker midfielder than basically all of them also. They just don't need him with Ward, Hopper and Green to play inside, Kelly and Coniglio both very good hybrids and then Whitfield, Perryman, Ash and Cumming to fill the rest of the outside roles with quality kicking. They've also got the likes of Stone, Bruhn and a couple of other young guys that can fill midfield slots.
Now I'd feel confident in all that except Cameron is the coach so anything can happen when he starts tinkering and it's generally non-sensical moves so trying to apply logic to the Giants positioning is a fool's game.
I think it does hurt Taranto's midfield case because he's one of the few who can play forward adequately to allow him midfield run.
Reality is though that with their list Taranto shouldn't be getting midfield minutes, he's a better forward than all their other mids by a decent margin (Coniglio the only one who is close) and he's a weaker midfielder than basically all of them also. They just don't need him with Ward, Hopper and Green to play inside, Kelly and Coniglio both very good hybrids and then Whitfield, Perryman, Ash and Cumming to fill the rest of the outside roles with quality kicking. They've also got the likes of Stone, Bruhn and a couple of other young guys that can fill midfield slots.
Now I'd feel confident in all that except Cameron is the coach so anything can happen when he starts tinkering and it's generally non-sensical moves so trying to apply logic to the Giants positioning is a fool's game.
Too cheap to ignore really, even in that role. Worst average in the prior 6 seasons was 91 twice, two 105+ seasons and a 98 and a 101. Even if he's 5 points off his worst season he's an excellent pick. Get's back to his best and he ends your season by shading him.
You're basically going all in on him getting injured in like round 3 and just falling to pieces as a pick. It's really your only winning out by not taking him and realistically even if that happens his owners are just dumping him into the best looking rookie they didn't take so you've gained a trade advantage.
It's one of those moves that you take on all the risk for an ultra limited reward scenario that isn't even a significant reward whilst if he becomes a keeper in 98% of teams you're basically handicapping yourself and making a top 5k finish a real trek and his track record says if he's moderately fit he's going to give keeper a real shout.
You're basically going all in on him getting injured in like round 3 and just falling to pieces as a pick. It's really your only winning out by not taking him and realistically even if that happens his owners are just dumping him into the best looking rookie they didn't take so you've gained a trade advantage.
It's one of those moves that you take on all the risk for an ultra limited reward scenario that isn't even a significant reward whilst if he becomes a keeper in 98% of teams you're basically handicapping yourself and making a top 5k finish a real trek and his track record says if he's moderately fit he's going to give keeper a real shout.
I dont think hes any gaurantee to match his past, he looked cooked last year when he finally got back out there and has had 2 or 3 pretty serious injuries that tend to have an ongoing effect on mobility, if they continue to play him in a rubbish role due to limited fitness capacity I will likely pass even at the price, just get Brett Deledio vibes here personally, still has the pre season to convince me his past issues arent going to be ongoing or limit his future I have by no means ruled out selecting him that would be stupid in February just think people acting like hes the bargain of the century need to pump the brakes a bit.
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