This was it. Geez, I got a bit carried away with that analysis!
https://supercoachscores.com/threads/2021-expectations-and-needs.4553/#post-694096
https://supercoachscores.com/threads/2021-expectations-and-needs.4553/#post-694096
Position 2022: Midfield Discussion
- Thread starter KLo30
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Potentially go value punts in the backs and fwds and slingshot (if needed) to the best scorers?
Mids, well I am fairly certain Rowsus once said something about don't mid-price in the mids. Also backed up with a ream of analysis
Mids, well I am fairly certain Rowsus once said something about don't mid-price in the mids. Also backed up with a ream of analysis
Banking on Daicos & JHF getting DPP and then turning 2 of the MP's into premium mids ASAP
Slingshot the remainder at their Byes.
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Potentially go value punts in the backs and fwds and slingshot (if needed) to the best scorers?
Mids, well I am fairly certain Rowsus once said something about don't mid-price in the mids. Also backed up with a ream of analysis
Mids, well I am fairly certain Rowsus once said something about don't mid-price in the mids. Also backed up with a ream of analysis
When we had 20 trades, you generally would want 12 gun keepers and then one up, one down to fill the other 10 spots (in a perfect world).
30 trades gave us more flexibility - use 2, 3, 4 to fix rookies, then slingshot at byes etc.
I know the 35 is supposed to be covid protection, but we really can't predict what will happen. You could pick 2 solid keepers on each line and then have 35 trades to sort out 14 spots. To me that opens up more avenues of attack.
If sides are hit with covid withdrawals, it may be better if you have less rookies onfield? The likes of Cripps, Crouch, Rowell, Lipinski, Berry, Caldwell etc. become more advantageous?
The forward line can be filled with a bunch of mids anyway. You could have Dunkley, Martin, Duncan, Treloar, Heeney, De Goey etc. and pump out pretty good numbers.
The best thing about rookies is we already know they are underpriced and therefore value, if they play.
Midpricers or value plays 'may be underpriced' but there are more variables, and if they don't improve their avg or (dare I say it) don't play, then you are well behind the person who invests in guns and rookies.
Don't disgree with your suggestion of 5 more trades meaning different strats. Going to be a fascinating aspect of SC 2022. Not to mention the dpp changes during the season!
Midpricers or value plays 'may be underpriced' but there are more variables, and if they don't improve their avg or (dare I say it) don't play, then you are well behind the person who invests in guns and rookies.
Don't disgree with your suggestion of 5 more trades meaning different strats. Going to be a fascinating aspect of SC 2022. Not to mention the dpp changes during the season!
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In before @Connoisseur.
"Never again" lists are an awful idea. Refer to numerous recent posts on this.
"Never again" lists are an awful idea. Refer to numerous recent posts on this.
Maybe. Need to see him in the preseason but I certainly haven't put a fork in him just yet. I'm kind of just hovering over his corpse right now ready to lunge.
Will watch very closely. Very good scoring history that is pretty safe to back happening again if he's fit and focused. Playing for his career is a pretty good thing generally.
Can definitely see him in my side, for all their good young mids the Kangas don't have anyone who is really similar to him so there is definitely a high value position for him to take back.
Have to be very careful of constructing a narrative to fit what you want it to while ignoring all alternatives.
Rowell played a perfect role last year, he just was absolutely terrible playing it, his role was not an issue.
Dunkley would be a lock if it wasn't for his durability and role concerns, if I believed that the role was injury related entirely and not just Treloar being fit, I'd even be able to overlook the durability issue for the upside value. The reality is I have huge concerns on his role and his durability and thus he hasn't actually made many of my teams.
Ultimately there is only one reason that I would pick Dunkley this year and that is as a defensive pick because of his extreme upside potential if his body and role are right. I need to see some kind of indicator they are from the preseason but that's why I'm picking him, I do it with zero faith he stays fit or that his role will be right but when a guy is in 50% of teams and has proven he can score at 20 points better than anyone else at the position, shading him is the risk.
Rowell doesn't have that aspect at all, his best case seems to be creeping into that 110 range where from his starting price you're fine keeping him. He's not averaging 150+ to put the whole position at threat. He's also utterly unproven. He could be great but he could join a very long list of guys who don't come back from major injuries or that had their best games very early in their career and never get back there. At this point he's shown fragility and plays a very contact heavy style, it's a valid concern that can completely derail him as a pick.
You actually highlight one of the hidden costs on picking a guy like Rowell, you're basically going to be handcuffing him to another risky pick or a chain of riskier picks (bunch of 425k guys instead of 500k guys). Those guys aren't priced in that bracket for good reasons basically ever, so picking multiples just compounds the risk factor. Rowell in isolation could well work, doubling down into Cripps could end up with the same trade equation as the GnR option, no cash generation and less points very quickly.
You can bank that one of Lipinski, Cripps, Rowell, Shiel or someone else in that price range in the mids will jump towards 110 and if you pick them it's a massive jump forward but you can also bank that more guys in that bracket will score within 10 points of their starting points or be injured again if that's the reason they're there in the first place. You can keep hitting on 17 all game in blackjack and it might even work but odds say the more times you do it the quicker you go bust. Injury related midpricers are hitting on 17, god it feels good when you stupidly do it and it works but you know you shouldn't
You also sacrifice significant cash generation from those two slots and if they don't work you've not gained the trades.
I started Cripps last year, I'd seen enough to bail at round 3 but those who held him lost cash, lost trades and lost points. He's just an example and you can find the others but if you're looking at these guys I'd highly advise watching them incredibly closely in the preseason, you're looking for the slightest of red flags as those are the parachute cords that need pulling.
Nothing against any of these picks to be clear, just know that you're buying a 2nd hand car that might be pretty shoddy under the hood!
Saw this, ignores that he's already priced at the big drop in price.
He's another to watch in the preseason closely for any carry over issues but he's great starting pick value right now.
Will watch very closely. Very good scoring history that is pretty safe to back happening again if he's fit and focused. Playing for his career is a pretty good thing generally.
Can definitely see him in my side, for all their good young mids the Kangas don't have anyone who is really similar to him so there is definitely a high value position for him to take back.
Have to be very careful of constructing a narrative to fit what you want it to while ignoring all alternatives.
Rowell played a perfect role last year, he just was absolutely terrible playing it, his role was not an issue.
Dunkley would be a lock if it wasn't for his durability and role concerns, if I believed that the role was injury related entirely and not just Treloar being fit, I'd even be able to overlook the durability issue for the upside value. The reality is I have huge concerns on his role and his durability and thus he hasn't actually made many of my teams.
Ultimately there is only one reason that I would pick Dunkley this year and that is as a defensive pick because of his extreme upside potential if his body and role are right. I need to see some kind of indicator they are from the preseason but that's why I'm picking him, I do it with zero faith he stays fit or that his role will be right but when a guy is in 50% of teams and has proven he can score at 20 points better than anyone else at the position, shading him is the risk.
Rowell doesn't have that aspect at all, his best case seems to be creeping into that 110 range where from his starting price you're fine keeping him. He's not averaging 150+ to put the whole position at threat. He's also utterly unproven. He could be great but he could join a very long list of guys who don't come back from major injuries or that had their best games very early in their career and never get back there. At this point he's shown fragility and plays a very contact heavy style, it's a valid concern that can completely derail him as a pick.
You actually highlight one of the hidden costs on picking a guy like Rowell, you're basically going to be handcuffing him to another risky pick or a chain of riskier picks (bunch of 425k guys instead of 500k guys). Those guys aren't priced in that bracket for good reasons basically ever, so picking multiples just compounds the risk factor. Rowell in isolation could well work, doubling down into Cripps could end up with the same trade equation as the GnR option, no cash generation and less points very quickly.
You can bank that one of Lipinski, Cripps, Rowell, Shiel or someone else in that price range in the mids will jump towards 110 and if you pick them it's a massive jump forward but you can also bank that more guys in that bracket will score within 10 points of their starting points or be injured again if that's the reason they're there in the first place. You can keep hitting on 17 all game in blackjack and it might even work but odds say the more times you do it the quicker you go bust. Injury related midpricers are hitting on 17, god it feels good when you stupidly do it and it works but you know you shouldn't
You also sacrifice significant cash generation from those two slots and if they don't work you've not gained the trades.
I started Cripps last year, I'd seen enough to bail at round 3 but those who held him lost cash, lost trades and lost points. He's just an example and you can find the others but if you're looking at these guys I'd highly advise watching them incredibly closely in the preseason, you're looking for the slightest of red flags as those are the parachute cords that need pulling.
Nothing against any of these picks to be clear, just know that you're buying a 2nd hand car that might be pretty shoddy under the hood!
Saw this, ignores that he's already priced at the big drop in price.
He's another to watch in the preseason closely for any carry over issues but he's great starting pick value right now.
Confirmation that Zorko could indeed play half back at times.
View: https://mobile.twitter.com/aflratings/status/1493881196534956033
View: https://mobile.twitter.com/aflratings/status/1493881196534956033
I could definitely end up talking myself into McCluggage if he's getting inside midfield minutes. If Zorko is not playing that midfield role then the minutes are there for him and he's too good to waste on just an outside role.
I'm sure I'll regret it, give up on him and watch him break out next season instead but...
I'm sure I'll regret it, give up on him and watch him break out next season instead but...
