Position 2022: Forward Discussion
- Thread starter KLo30
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Love this time of year , so many players averaging over 110 😀
Too much mayo in pre-season chat.
Of the players we can currently select as Forwards only one averaged 100 last season.
Certainly all of those players mentioned have the potential to score yet , whether they do it or not , who knows until the end of the season.
Agree though it is all guesswork on who may or may not get F status added , wait for someone and they don't get it we could miss out on a very good starter.
They certainly do allow $$$ to be spent elsewhere (just took out Duncan personally to have a look , now to choose between the 5 of them , will definitely start Heeney)
Too much mayo in pre-season chat.
Of the players we can currently select as Forwards only one averaged 100 last season.
Certainly all of those players mentioned have the potential to score yet , whether they do it or not , who knows until the end of the season.
Agree though it is all guesswork on who may or may not get F status added , wait for someone and they don't get it we could miss out on a very good starter.
They certainly do allow $$$ to be spent elsewhere (just took out Duncan personally to have a look , now to choose between the 5 of them , will definitely start Heeney)
Certainly plenty of options there , the old aggregate v Average condundrum , extra trades so maybe the option of jumping off if they don't look like working or break.
If I go Butters I can abuse my TV each week if he doesn't work out , have liked Thomas potential for a number of seasons , almost picked Bailey last season (lack of recognition on here changed my mind , could end up with 5 Lion players) , won't pick JDG (cause of the media hype)
If I go Butters I can abuse my TV each week if he doesn't work out , have liked Thomas potential for a number of seasons , almost picked Bailey last season (lack of recognition on here changed my mind , could end up with 5 Lion players) , won't pick JDG (cause of the media hype)
I got Bailey last year for $380k; was decent but Rowe earned another $80k or so after I traded him so swings and roundabouts.
I like Bailey but also think Brisbane have a lot of options where there might be more opportunities for Heeney/Tarryn; Port have options too; perhaps fewer than Brisbane but Butters seems to be getting all the right indicators.
I like Bailey but also think Brisbane have a lot of options where there might be more opportunities for Heeney/Tarryn; Port have options too; perhaps fewer than Brisbane but Butters seems to be getting all the right indicators.
Heeney and Butters play significant midfield time the only guy of those currently forward eligible I'm absolutely confident beats them is Dunkley to be honest, think they are alot better picks than being made out especially when you consider the scenarios of all the top end current forward options.
Duncan is an interrupted pre season and no gaurantee to even play Round 1.
Taranto is playing forward
Hawkins is nearly 34 and likely to reduce his reliance now Cameron has had a full pre season, hard to see him matching previous numbers.
Dusty lost significant weight and has had to be managed in the build up, big ask to get to the same heights, now has an adductor strain keeping him out of match simulations aswell.
Forward line screams look for value to me.
Duncan is an interrupted pre season and no gaurantee to even play Round 1.
Taranto is playing forward
Hawkins is nearly 34 and likely to reduce his reliance now Cameron has had a full pre season, hard to see him matching previous numbers.
Dusty lost significant weight and has had to be managed in the build up, big ask to get to the same heights, now has an adductor strain keeping him out of match simulations aswell.
Forward line screams look for value to me.
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Can't comment on Graham and Weller, haven't really considered them, although Graham looks like a maybe.
Yes Butters, Heeney, Tarryn, Zailey can all average 90 - 110. My concerns with them respectively are:
Butters - (1) Injury concern (2) Actual midfield ability
Heeney - (1) Injury concern
Tarryn - (1) Lack of midfield time (Greenwood, Cunnington, Simpkin, LDU are all MIDs only. Anderson also can't play anywhere else if hes best 22. Stephenson, Powell, Phillips and JHF will take minor minutes. So essentially Tarryn is at best 5th in line, but even that spot is being contested by a group of 4-5 midfielders)
Zailey - (1) Role concern
At this stage I have it as Heeney > Tarryn > Butters > Zailey.
Yes Butters, Heeney, Tarryn, Zailey can all average 90 - 110. My concerns with them respectively are:
Butters - (1) Injury concern (2) Actual midfield ability
Heeney - (1) Injury concern
Tarryn - (1) Lack of midfield time (Greenwood, Cunnington, Simpkin, LDU are all MIDs only. Anderson also can't play anywhere else if hes best 22. Stephenson, Powell, Phillips and JHF will take minor minutes. So essentially Tarryn is at best 5th in line, but even that spot is being contested by a group of 4-5 midfielders)
Zailey - (1) Role concern
At this stage I have it as Heeney > Tarryn > Butters > Zailey.
Has anyone looked at Jack Graham this season? I'd kinda written him off as a solid hardworking type who suits the Richmond system. Runs hard both ways, tackles, lack polish or hurt factor. His scoring last season was all over the shop, 3 scores 120+ and 3 scores in the 40s. He only had more than 23 disposals twice, 33 disposals/120 SC and 36/154.
The scoring potential is clearly there, he can certainly rack up touches and tackles. The problem is that Graham is the sort of player who needs to do that to score well because he's not going to do any damage by foot and doesn't win much contested ball. That makes him hard to pick in a very SC unfriendly Richmond system unless he looks like getting more of an inside role this season. Last year Graham's CBA% only exceeded 40 in three games despite all the problems Richmond had with their midfield. That makes me wonder whether the coaches at Richmond think Graham just isn't much of a contested ball winner.
His role is worth monitoring, but for now the likes of Butters/Thomas/Bailey are more appealing (not including Heeney who I'm staying away from).
Edit: Looks he's having a disrupted preseason with some sort of injury.
The scoring potential is clearly there, he can certainly rack up touches and tackles. The problem is that Graham is the sort of player who needs to do that to score well because he's not going to do any damage by foot and doesn't win much contested ball. That makes him hard to pick in a very SC unfriendly Richmond system unless he looks like getting more of an inside role this season. Last year Graham's CBA% only exceeded 40 in three games despite all the problems Richmond had with their midfield. That makes me wonder whether the coaches at Richmond think Graham just isn't much of a contested ball winner.
His role is worth monitoring, but for now the likes of Butters/Thomas/Bailey are more appealing (not including Heeney who I'm staying away from).
Edit: Looks he's having a disrupted preseason with some sort of injury.
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Greg Williams comments regarding Curnow :-
Charlie Curnow
“He’ll play up forward, his pre-season, they’ve timed his run to the start of the season.
“He’s been doing 100 per cent for at least six weeks or a few months probably.
“He’s said himself he’s in the best shape he’s ever been in, his knee feels great, touch wood, and I think it would be great for everyone if Charlie can get back to close to what he was.
“I think he can, some of the stuff he’s done in training and match simulation, he’s moving as well as he ever has I think.
“Let’s hope he can continue on and get some form.”
Charlie Curnow
“He’ll play up forward, his pre-season, they’ve timed his run to the start of the season.
“He’s been doing 100 per cent for at least six weeks or a few months probably.
“He’s said himself he’s in the best shape he’s ever been in, his knee feels great, touch wood, and I think it would be great for everyone if Charlie can get back to close to what he was.
“I think he can, some of the stuff he’s done in training and match simulation, he’s moving as well as he ever has I think.
“Let’s hope he can continue on and get some form.”
Was pure mid to start the season, worth noting that Treloar had a very interrupted preseason.
Was much more forward upon return with Treloar back and fit. Also Bailey Smith stole midfield rotations in the finals.
Haven't heard anything much on his preseason which for guys like him is generally a good thing.
Basically comes down to his preseason role. If it looks mid heavy then his upside trumps everything else and you can basically ignore the durability record because if you don't have him and he stays fit, your season is half over already.
If the role is doubtful, where he's a proven low 90s or worse guy, then the terrible durability record definitely comes in to play and there's strong reason to avoid him.
He's a really hard one, contract year and they want to keep him but on paper he doesn't fit their midfield, his problem is he's the best forward of the group other than Bont. Macrae and Bont are better at everything, Libba is significantly better inside and ball usage wise, Treloar offers much more burst and run and carry, Smith probably belongs with Macrae and Bont but at worst has burst and carry. Hunter has immensely better ball usage. I love Dunkley but that's an amazing midfield group and his role is always going to be in someway tentative within it, but the simple fact is that his scoring when in it is immense and they definitely liked him there early last year when he was certainly fit.
How much of late season is Treloar being fit and preferred to Dunkley or how much is that Dunkley wasn't right and so they hid him? Answering that can pretty much answer Dunkley yay or nay.
Will watch strongly in preseason though, as I said, his upside potential is destructive and he's too popular to take on if that upside being reached looks even remotely plausible.
Varying degrees of confidence.
Disagree on Taranto being above them personally. He just doesn't make sense in their midfield, especially the first month while Greene is out but even then I've never got that equation, it doesn't work, think he needs to be forward where his kicking doesn't actively harm the side. They've got enough guys who can go hard at the contest and not turn it over more often than not.
Think the rest all have very strong cases to average 100, although Martin and Duncan are both throwing up preseason questions with the durability aspect.
Hawkins could average 85 or 105 and neither outcome would surprise me but I do think ultimately he's about right in average for where I'd pick him.
Dunkley discussed above.
Personally I expect we see 3-4 midfielders/rucks in the 95+ range that end up as forwards. That would be on the low end of most seasons assuming the same system as AFLF has used. Danger, Fyfe and Zorko are three guys who stand out early as likely names but the likes of Billings, Bont, Petracca and Boak also would be contenders if things fell that way. Really they only matter if they're 100+ guys who shift the F6 line significantly, if they're just part of the pack then not as influential.
Normally the most impactful guys are those coming back from injury being eased in before assuming proper roles. Darcy the very clear example of this last year.
Personally think there's a very strong group of right age/price/narrative cheaper options. We tend to have every couple of years that breakout group who are forwards for the last time as they move to midfield roles. Early so far but that's definitely the story for Thomas, Heeney, Butters and Bailey at this point.
I'm definitely planning that the F6 mark this year will be 100+. Doesn't mean you need your F6 at that point, Coniglio at a 90+ would almost certainly hold up at F6 on pure value at that mark. Heeney et al would work at 95-98 almost certainly, the issue with them could become if you had 4 of them in that range and the F4 mark is more like 105+ or even 110+, then the leaked points could become extreme, especially if most of the other names are highly selected types.
Basically if there are 10 guys averaging 100-105, then you can easily survive with a bunch of value 98s in their places, but if you've got 3 guys at 110+ then you really do need those guys in your team.
Personally I actually think the value guys and the position change guys are more likely to be in that group than our established starters. I'm personally of the opinion that Butters, Heeney, Thomas, De Goey and Stringer would all be in the top 8 of guys most capable/likely to go 110+ this year of the starting forwards. Martin, Dunkley and Treloar, as proven guys, would be the other 3.
Generally the top forwards are the guys who aren't forwards the next year. Macrae, Merrett, Petracca, Brayshaw, Zorko, Whitfield, Hall, Ziebell, Boak, Danger and the likes. Those are the guys who blow the 95-100 range out of the water historically.
Of course many a season has ended chasing those types
Was much more forward upon return with Treloar back and fit. Also Bailey Smith stole midfield rotations in the finals.
Haven't heard anything much on his preseason which for guys like him is generally a good thing.
Basically comes down to his preseason role. If it looks mid heavy then his upside trumps everything else and you can basically ignore the durability record because if you don't have him and he stays fit, your season is half over already.
If the role is doubtful, where he's a proven low 90s or worse guy, then the terrible durability record definitely comes in to play and there's strong reason to avoid him.
He's a really hard one, contract year and they want to keep him but on paper he doesn't fit their midfield, his problem is he's the best forward of the group other than Bont. Macrae and Bont are better at everything, Libba is significantly better inside and ball usage wise, Treloar offers much more burst and run and carry, Smith probably belongs with Macrae and Bont but at worst has burst and carry. Hunter has immensely better ball usage. I love Dunkley but that's an amazing midfield group and his role is always going to be in someway tentative within it, but the simple fact is that his scoring when in it is immense and they definitely liked him there early last year when he was certainly fit.
How much of late season is Treloar being fit and preferred to Dunkley or how much is that Dunkley wasn't right and so they hid him? Answering that can pretty much answer Dunkley yay or nay.
Will watch strongly in preseason though, as I said, his upside potential is destructive and he's too popular to take on if that upside being reached looks even remotely plausible.
Varying degrees of confidence.
Disagree on Taranto being above them personally. He just doesn't make sense in their midfield, especially the first month while Greene is out but even then I've never got that equation, it doesn't work, think he needs to be forward where his kicking doesn't actively harm the side. They've got enough guys who can go hard at the contest and not turn it over more often than not.
Think the rest all have very strong cases to average 100, although Martin and Duncan are both throwing up preseason questions with the durability aspect.
Hawkins could average 85 or 105 and neither outcome would surprise me but I do think ultimately he's about right in average for where I'd pick him.
Dunkley discussed above.
Personally I expect we see 3-4 midfielders/rucks in the 95+ range that end up as forwards. That would be on the low end of most seasons assuming the same system as AFLF has used. Danger, Fyfe and Zorko are three guys who stand out early as likely names but the likes of Billings, Bont, Petracca and Boak also would be contenders if things fell that way. Really they only matter if they're 100+ guys who shift the F6 line significantly, if they're just part of the pack then not as influential.
Normally the most impactful guys are those coming back from injury being eased in before assuming proper roles. Darcy the very clear example of this last year.
Personally think there's a very strong group of right age/price/narrative cheaper options. We tend to have every couple of years that breakout group who are forwards for the last time as they move to midfield roles. Early so far but that's definitely the story for Thomas, Heeney, Butters and Bailey at this point.
I'm definitely planning that the F6 mark this year will be 100+. Doesn't mean you need your F6 at that point, Coniglio at a 90+ would almost certainly hold up at F6 on pure value at that mark. Heeney et al would work at 95-98 almost certainly, the issue with them could become if you had 4 of them in that range and the F4 mark is more like 105+ or even 110+, then the leaked points could become extreme, especially if most of the other names are highly selected types.
Basically if there are 10 guys averaging 100-105, then you can easily survive with a bunch of value 98s in their places, but if you've got 3 guys at 110+ then you really do need those guys in your team.
Personally I actually think the value guys and the position change guys are more likely to be in that group than our established starters. I'm personally of the opinion that Butters, Heeney, Thomas, De Goey and Stringer would all be in the top 8 of guys most capable/likely to go 110+ this year of the starting forwards. Martin, Dunkley and Treloar, as proven guys, would be the other 3.
Generally the top forwards are the guys who aren't forwards the next year. Macrae, Merrett, Petracca, Brayshaw, Zorko, Whitfield, Hall, Ziebell, Boak, Danger and the likes. Those are the guys who blow the 95-100 range out of the water historically.
Of course many a season has ended chasing those types