Position 2022: Forward Discussion

[RIAL]

Any opinion is subjective, however, the experts think it. See except below from the draft analysis.

It’s all well and good winning bucketloads of the ball, but what are these two doing with it? Horne’s lower disposal rates in comparison do not necessarily indicate lesser impact. 15 of his disposals are arguably more damaging than if Daicos had the same number, but the latter’s sway on the game comes through sheer accumulation and an uncanny knack for knowing when and where his next possession will come.

Horne’s penetrative kick and bullet-like passing can be a real weapon, matched with the positive intent to put the ball in ominous areas. His knack for taking eye-catching overhead marks and laying crunching tackles also point towards his undeniable status as a high-impact player. Daicos is usually a wonderfully clean and clever user of the ball, with the added trait of bringing his teammates into the play.

He constantly looks to give and go; kicking short and running hard to get the handball back, or chaining by hand up the field to help bring some fluency to his side’s play. It means he is a productive and creative type in midfield, just in a different way to Horne. He is better able to find the ball in all areas of the ground with his work-rate and smarts, but is that kind of accumulation always as impactful as possible? The verdict is out, but he can certainly have an overwhelming effect on the game with his rate of accumulation, popping up everywhere

No one suggested this was the case.

Horne's having a penetrative kick and being a high-impact player also doesn't matter if it doesn't translate into high Supercoach scores.

All of this doesn't change the fact that JHF only averaged 15 possessions in junior football, and even if he was able to replicate that level of production in AFL, it would still require a Bontempelli-like DT:SC ratio to justify his starting price.

 

[GrainFedBeef]

No one suggested this was the case.

Horne's having a penetrative kick and being a high-impact player also doesn't matter if it doesn't translate into high Supercoach scores.

All of this doesn't change the fact that JHF only averaged 15 possessions in junior football, and even if he was able to replicate that level of production in AFL, it would still require a Bontempelli-like DT:SC ratio to justify his starting price.

I expect Daicos is the higher SC scorer based on numerical accumulation and role in the team. Defence for Pies is better than forward for JHF.

However, it would be expected that his SC/DT ratio is much better as Daicos may be more uncontested and greater handball and expect JHF is a longer kick.

Justifying price is also about likelihood getting games, % chance of making at least $100k with the dream of $150k. It is not JHF vs Daicos, it is JHF vs other rookie choices including in other lines. Do I got a Goater at his cheap price if his certainty of hanging around may be 50% less than JHF. Do I pick him vs a Gibcus whose scoring was 50% of JHF.

 

[donnybuang]

I'd imagine Berry sucks up more spare mid time than Rayner.

 

[Shaunpro1]

I'd imagine Berry sucks up more spare mid time than Rayner.

I just dont see the opportunity being there for either of them, at least not enough to make them good picks, for all the talk I'd personally be very surprised if their core midifeld isn't Neale,Lyons and Zorko when push comes to shove, then there's McCluggage,Bailey,Berry and Rayner, find it hard to see Berry and Rayner not being the last two in that block of players, what's a realistic average from the 6th or 7th mid in a rotation? Coaches talk alot of crap in the pre season but their mix last year still got them to a top 4 position, find it hard to believe Fagan is going to suddenly play Neale,Lyons and Zorko as forwards.

 

[wogitalia]

I just dont see the opportunity being there for either of them, at least not enough to make them good picks, for all the talk I'd personally be very surprised if their core midifeld isn't Neale,Lyons and Zorko when push comes to shove, then there's McCluggage,Bailey,Berry and Rayner, find it hard to see Berry and Rayner not being the last two in that block of players, what's a realistic average from the 6th or 7th mid in a rotation? Coaches talk alot of crap in the pre season but their mix last year still got them to a top 4 position, find it hard to believe ***an is going to suddenly play Neale,Lyons and Zorko as forwards.

Yeah before last Berry was ahead of Zorko because Zorko is so good forward and because of how good Berry is as a mid.

The question with Berry is if he's got his body right and can actually play the position after last season.

I don't disagree though, for mine Bailey and Clug both need more midfield minutes. Zorko is the very obvious guy to go out, not only because he's a better forward than anyone else on that list by a very considerable margin but also because he's had a heavily interrupted preseason that has him in doubt for round 1 and because he's old.

I actually think Robbo on the wing would also be vulnerable, Berry played mostly as a wing pushing in as the extra midfielder so would think he takes that role. Bailey and Clug should basically be a 3 way swap with Zorko with Zorko forward 80%, Clug in the mid mostly and Bailey on the wing more but definitely switching, probably taking CB to add more burst.

Lyon and Neale should be the main two, which makes the talk about them hard to reconcile. Rayner, I don't know, he hasn't really shown anything at AFL level to suggest he should be ahead of any of them but he's also played badly out of position his whole career and was a #1 pick for a reason and it wasn't to play forward pocket. Might go down the Robbie Gray path of taking an ACL injury to bring the clarity that they want to be stars and actually get into AFL midfield shape and he could go huge if that's the case given his reputation for training is pretty awful.

It's a mess no matter what and it kind of has me moving away from Berry just because of the doubt and plethora of options right now and that his durability record is so bad also. Rayner I never really had on my list, if he was 80k cheaper he would be but I just can't see the upside at his price, it just doesn't align. Bailey I like others more but he absolutely can score and may well be the right call, unlike all the guys I'm looking at his durability is actually alright too...

 

[Chumpion]

This forward line is getting out of control!

 

[OnTopBar]

View attachment 39866
This forward line is getting out of control!

I think a lot of coaches will have a starting Fwd line very similar to yours, for now at least. There just seems to be so much value there, add in Dusty, De Goey, Curnow, Coleman plus a few others, my F6 is currently Curnow.

There's been a bit of doubt about some of the higher priced Fwds like Duncan & Dunkley with the latter underpriced as well.

My concern is that by loading up you're missing out on the higher scoring and DPP added premos. I see the players you (and I) have scoring around 95+ but the others like Dunkley, Dusty, Duncan and the possible DPP's of Marshall, Zorko etc. outscoring all of them by around 10pts@/game. We are then forced into 'luxury' upgrades once our teams are finished which works in AFLF but I'm not sure it does in this format.

 

[Chumpion]

I think a lot of coaches will have a starting Fwd line very similar to yours, for now at least. There just seems to be so much value there, add in Dusty, De Goey, Curnow, Coleman plus a few others, my F6 is currently Curnow.

There's been a bit of doubt about some of the higher priced Fwds like Duncan & Dunkley with the latter underpriced as well.

My concern is that by loading up you're missing out on the higher scoring and DPP added premos. I see the players you (and I) have scoring around 95+ but the others like Dunkley, Dusty, Duncan and the possible DPP's of Marshall, Zorko etc. outscoring all of them by around 10pts@/game. We are then forced into 'luxury' upgrades once our teams are finished which works in AFLF but I'm not sure it does in this format.

Completely agree that is the big concern with a 5 deep forward line - especially if these guys end up "just" not good enough so a trade is hard to justify but the points bleed is real. My big challenge is I'm struggling to rank them in order and therefore work out who to axe!

Have Coleman down back at the moment, but could easily swing him forward if I shift my F5 to be a defence premium instead.

Going to be a tough decision if some forward rookies don't present..

 

[jaca]

5 extra trades and DPP additions… maybe we take the value and trade into the DPP opportunities?

 

[Peter56]

5 extra trades and DPP additions… maybe we take the value and trade into the DPP opportunities?

I was just thinking along these lines

 

[OnTopBar]

Completely agree that is the big concern with a 5 deep forward line - especially if these guys end up "just" not good enough so a trade is hard to justify but the points bleed is real. My big challenge is I'm struggling to rank them in order and therefore work out who to axe!

Have Coleman down back at the moment, but could easily swing him forward if I shift my F5 to be a defence premium instead.

Going to be a tough decision if some forward rookies don't present..

I've got Cogs at F5 and Curnow at F6, I don't think Cogs will show his scoring potential until Punchable is back, even so I'm treating him as a stepping stone, same with Curnow, so there's at least 2 spots set for upgrades. Dusty at F1 and Treloar at F2 I would think have F4 & F5 covered, but I also have Heeney and Butters who I also think are around that mark. So I've got 4 players that will fill F4-F6 meaning (hopefully) just 1 of them will be a luxury upgrade, maybe none if the players I bring in to F1 and F2 do the job.

 

[Courtesans]

Treloar and Heeney seem too good to pass.

 

[manyproblems]

5 extra trades and DPP additions… maybe we take the value and trade into the DPP opportunities?

I think so. Dunkley/Heeney/Butters are already locked for me, they're S tier talents (butters/heeney) with ample mid minutes. Can throw Thomas in there as well, I wasn't sold but after watching him today, I think I almost am now for $450k. I was thinking avoid with all the midfielders around him but looks like Cunnington is a long way off & Anderson will be playing VFL for a while.

 

[wogitalia]

Completely agree that is the big concern with a 5 deep forward line - especially if these guys end up "just" not good enough so a trade is hard to justify but the points bleed is real. My big challenge is I'm struggling to rank them in order and therefore work out who to axe!

Have Coleman down back at the moment, but could easily swing him forward if I shift my F5 to be a defence premium instead.

Going to be a tough decision if some forward rookies don't present..

I think you're doing it wrong if you're picking those guys as 95 scorers unless you think the premium level is going to be around that mark.

I personally think that we will have 5+ forwards in the ~105 range this year. Allowing for Coniglio in every side, and if he works, to a 95 he's realistically the F6 for all sides except those perhaps at the very pointy end who get a couple of extra trades to move him.

If you're playing with a similar vision you should only be picking the forwards you think score 105+, if that's not in your projections you should put the line through them and take those who are in that group. If you think ~105 is too high, go with what you think it is.

For mine personally I think the following are ~105+ candidates:

Dunkley - Obviously
Duncan - Obviously
Martin - Obviously
Taranto - Right role, not projecting it personally, especially early.
Stringer - Not projecting it with injury, history and durability.
Wingard - Needs the role, durability stops him in the end for me.
Treloar - Obviously
English - Needs the role, or more importantly Martin out.
Sidey - Obviously
De Goey - Not projecting right now.
Bailey - Longshot but in the right role.
Thomas - Not as keen as I was a couple of hours ago but still think he's capable.
Bolton - Right role needed but capable.
Graham - Right role but injury derails him this year.
Heeney - Role/Durability the questions, those two hold up, yes.
Butters - Same as Heeney.
Coniglio - Has to be on it given he's done it twice before.

Throw in maybe 2-4 DPP changes and I think you can find 5 personally.

Therefore everyone I pick needs to be on that list. I'm not projecting several of those to do it for various reasons.

FWIW, assuming that no one goes way beyond 105 (in which case they're a must have and for each one you lose a D5,4,3,etc) then realistically the guys costing in the 80s probably only actually need to get to 98-100 range (depending what they cost) and you're not leaking any more points than the extra cash should be generating elsewhere, all else being equal.

 

[Shaunpro1]

Im honestly not convinced that Heeney,Butters and Thomas average enough to be in the top 6 conversation, is a tier below enough when you're only paying 450K?

When you actually go through the names you can make a pretty strong case that theres 6 blokes that beat them in seasonal average IMHO, especially if CD are generous with DPP additions.

 

[Chumpion]

I think you're doing it wrong if you're picking those guys as 95 scorers unless you think the premium level is going to be around that mark.

I personally think that we will have 5+ forwards in the ~105 range this year. Allowing for Coniglio in every side, and if he works, to a 95 he's realistically the F6 for all sides except those perhaps at the very pointy end who get a couple of extra trades to move him.

If you're playing with a similar vision you should only be picking the forwards you think score 105+, if that's not in your projections you should put the line through them and take those who are in that group. If you think ~105 is too high, go with what you think it is.

For mine personally I think the following are ~105+ candidates:

Dunkley - Obviously
Duncan - Obviously
Martin - Obviously
Taranto - Right role, not projecting it personally, especially early.
Stringer - Not projecting it with injury, history and durability.
Wingard - Needs the role, durability stops him in the end for me.
Treloar - Obviously
English - Needs the role, or more importantly Martin out.
Sidey - Obviously
De Goey - Not projecting right now.
Bailey - Longshot but in the right role.
Thomas - Not as keen as I was a couple of hours ago but still think he's capable.
Bolton - Right role needed but capable.
Graham - Right role but injury derails him this year.
Heeney - Role/Durability the questions, those two hold up, yes.
Butters - Same as Heeney.
Coniglio - Has to be on it given he's done it twice before.

Throw in maybe 2-4 DPP changes and I think you can find 5 personally.

Therefore everyone I pick needs to be on that list. I'm not projecting several of those to do it for various reasons.

FWIW, assuming that no one goes way beyond 105 (in which case they're a must have and for each one you lose a D5,4,3,etc) then realistically the guys costing in the 80s probably only actually need to get to 98-100 range (depending what they cost) and you're not leaking any more points than the extra cash should be generating elsewhere, all else being equal.

Good to see the 5 I currently have are on your list!

 

[Shaunpro1]

I still think Treloar deserves more respect than hes getting, yes his body is a concern but the same can be said for virtually every forward option and hes priced under 500k, will get the CBA's as long as his body holds up IMHO.

 

[OnTopBar]

Im honestly not convinced that Heeney,Butters and Thomas average enough to be in the top 6 conversation, is a tier below enough when you're only paying 450K?

When you actually go through the names you can make a pretty strong case that theres 6 blokes that beat them in seasonal average IMHO, especially if CD are generous with DPP additions.

My guess is that you'd have, Dunkley, Duncan, Martin, Treloar and Sidebum as those in the top tier and IMO are all value plays too, DPP additions of Marshall and Zorko would have them in the convo as well. The trouble for me is that I have doubts on all of them, but don't want to miss the train either.

I'm also seeing that the tier below could also match, or even outscore the aforementioned players given the right conditions/roles and realistically could easily fill F4-F6. The trouble with that is by taking the punt with a couple of the top tier blokes and that punt doesn't come off then I'm stuck 5 players all scoring at F4-F6 levels.

My solution to this conundrum is to leave 2 spots open for upgrades and have a contingency to move on one of the underperforming players (if there is one) That luxury upgrade would be after my team is 'completed'. I'll also take 2 of the 'top tier' blokes who, I would hope, end up filling F3 & F4.

 

[Ginty22]

I still think Treloar deserves more respect than hes getting, yes his body is a concern but the same can be said for virtually every forward option and hes priced under 500k, will get the CBA's as long as his body holds up IMHO.

Treloars ownership is suffering from being on the same line as Dunkley. Majority are picking Dunkley and majority don't like starting 2 guys from the same team on the same line, myself included, so he's not being looked at
If Dunkley wasn't around, either different position or inj then Treloars ownership would probably be over 30%

 

[donnybuang]

I think a lot of coaches will have a starting Fwd line very similar to yours, for now at least. There just seems to be so much value there, add in Dusty, De Goey, Curnow, Coleman plus a few others, my F6 is currently Curnow.

There's been a bit of doubt about some of the higher priced Fwds like Duncan & Dunkley with the latter underpriced as well.

My concern is that by loading up you're missing out on the higher scoring and DPP added premos. I see the players you (and I) have scoring around 95+ but the others like Dunkley, Dusty, Duncan and the possible DPP's of Marshall, Zorko etc. outscoring all of them by around 10pts@/game. We are then forced into 'luxury' upgrades once our teams are finished which works in AFLF but I'm not sure it does in this format.

I'm not too worried about missing out on the DPP additions. Realistically, if a mid premo is added to the fwd line, its most likely going to come with a hefty decrease in scoring.
Your players scoring 95+ as and F5/6 is fine. There are so few fwds each year that go above 100, talk of an F6 with ~105 is fanciful.