Position 2022: Forward Discussion

[lavenderbandit]

Treloars ownership is suffering from being on the same line as Dunkley. Majority are picking Dunkley and majority don't like starting 2 guys from the same team on the same line, myself included, so he's not being looked at
If Dunkley wasn't around, either different position or inj then Treloars ownership would probably be over 30%

agree, add to the fact that i just most would see MacRae at 120-125, Bont 115-125, Dunks 105-125, Smith injured but 100+, Daniel 95-100, libba, hunter..... then try and fit Treloar in there somewhere.... whats the record for a team with most averages over 100 in a season? is 5-6 realistic? perhaps its happened before but feel its unlikely.

Not saying Treloar wont or cant go over 100, in fact i feel he is a good fdw pick, but just my opinion but for me with the dogs i feel the play is pick 1-2 or them, then the rest are massive trade in candidates as Bev seems to rotate the mids through the forward, and i dont mean in games i mean over a period of 4-6 weeks so they stay primed for finals. Pick them up after the inevitable fall as part of your trade plans.

 

[donnybuang]

agree, add to the fact that i just most would see MacRae at 120-125, Bont 115-125, Dunks 105-125, Smith injured but 100+, Daniel 95-100, libba, hunter..... then try and fit Treloar in there somewhere.... whats the record for a team with most averages over 100 in a season? is 5-6 realistic? perhaps its happened before but feel its unlikely.

Not saying Treloar wont or cant go over 100, in fact i feel he is a good fdw pick, but just my opinion but for me with the dogs i feel the play is pick 1-2 or them, then the rest are massive trade in candidates as Bev seems to rotate the mids through the forward, and i dont mean in games i mean over a period of 4-6 weeks so they stay primed for finals. Pick them up after the inevitable fall as part of your trade plans.

He averaged 98 off the back of a sketchy preseason last year, before getting injured.

 

[Manikato1]

Given cheap forwards will be an issue again this year does Oscar MacDonald come into calculations now? Classified as a forward but looks like he will have the full back/lockdown back role to himself. That means he gets a game every week and likely to score 65-70 with the odd high and low game. And will no doubt go D/F after rd 6. Should be able to make 125- 150k. But is that enough?

 

[wogitalia]

I'm not too worried about missing out on the DPP additions. Realistically, if a mid premo is added to the fwd line, its most likely going to come with a hefty decrease in scoring.
Your players scoring 95+ as and F5/6 is fine. There are so few fwds each year that go above 100, talk of an F6 with ~105 is fanciful.

This is true for the guys with genuine position changes or carrying a significant injury that will be there all season.

I would strongly warn against blanking on it though as the guys that are most dangerous are the names we're not considering right now because of preseason injuries that come back through the forwards, pick it up and then return to the midfield.

So for example, last year Tim English had quite clearly moved to a forward position and was going to stay there until Martin was gone (ultimately happened so not a perfect example).

At the same time though you had Kelly and Darcy as prime examples of guys who got injured and were managed through a pocket for a few weeks or eased back into the season before being unleashed to their natural position.

I'd say right now you've got Fyfe and Zorko who strongly stand out as guys who might be eased back in, averaging in the 90s but if they get their bodies right both are very capable of well north of 110 and would become game changing picks most likely.

Marshall another who can shift the range. Danger, Petracca and Bont are always threats.

I'd definitely be keeping a spot open until round 7 though, realistically F6 is probably the lowest point leak position on the field anyway so can afford to carry a rookie, especially if it's a Curnow type, a bit longer there to wait for the changes. Leaking 10 points at F1 from round 7 to about 14 when you can actually make the jump is significant if the only reason it's happening is a starting structure decision to not be flexible.

The other thing is that you're also closing yourself off to value picks by completing too early. It was actually one of my biggest takeaways last year as I did this too myself down back, having Cumming at D6 who was too good to upgrade over any fielded rookies but not good enough to keep and then 5 premiums meant I couldn't target guys like May or Daniel when they were bargains. Given the durability records up forward I don't think you can bet that none of the guys get hurt and become a lot cheaper.

Said it a few times, but this is a really weird season between balancing where the starting value/structure is pushing while not sacrificing flexibility and strategy in season!

 

[manyproblems]

Im honestly not convinced that Heeney,Butters and Thomas average enough to be in the top 6 conversation, is a tier below enough when you're only paying 450K?

When you actually go through the names you can make a pretty strong case that theres 6 blokes that beat them in seasonal average IMHO, especially if CD are generous with DPP additions.

Looking at the names outside of Heeney/Butters/Thomas.

Duncan - Call it what it is, he's injury prone 30 year old with multiple interruptions in the preseason. Do we leave a slot for him open late in the season? We saw Whitfield not be at his best for the year with his poor preseason, and Danger was a bit up and down with his crap preseason. Worry about this after the bye but even then, I dont' trust him to stay on the park. Probably in the 100s somewhere after a few games back in.

Taranto - Probably a 95-100 guy, worry about him when Green comes back. The coach has already said he will play a bit forward so that marks him down. Seems a very likely upgrade target.

Treloar - Bont gave up his mid minutes and he has multiple calves and hamstring issues now. Probably 95-100 in that set up. His game was a good reminder of how much of a butcher he is which brings him down

Stringer - Groin issues with no timeline, pass

Dusty - Goes to sleep during multiple stages of the year. Interrupted preseason to go with it including the minor quad issue. Past few years hes got and played through a few niggles.

JDG - Yet to see his fwd/mid split but I'm guessing it will be slightly favoured towards the midfield. Just a few question marks, especially now we may not get to see him in the preseason. A wait and see for mine. People also forget he has had a fair few injuries over the past few years.

None of these guys stand out to me as must get them in asap, there are multiple issues with all of them. JDG and Taranto are at the best ages and once we get a bit more info on them I can see those two coming in.

The 450k provide solid value and if you're not picking them, then its looking like higher risk mid pricers, soft tissue riddled alternatives. dealing with leon camerons BS or putting up with dustys BS to fill the void.

 

[Ben's Beasts]

Looking at the names outside of Heeney/Butters/Thomas.

Duncan - Call it what it is, he's injury prone 30 year old with multiple interruptions in the preseason. Do we leave a slot for him open late in the season? We saw Whitfield not be at his best for the year with his poor preseason, and Danger was a bit up and down with his crap preseason. Worry about this after the bye but even then, I dont' trust him to stay on the park. Probably in the 100s somewhere after a few games back in.

Taranto - Probably a 95-100 guy, worry about him when Green comes back. The coach has already said he will play a bit forward so that marks him down. Seems a very likely upgrade target.

Treloar - Bont gave up his mid minutes and he has multiple calves and hamstring issues now. Probably 95-100 in that set up. His game was a good reminder of how much of a butcher he is which brings him down

Stringer - Groin issues with no timeline, pass

Dusty - Goes to sleep during multiple stages of the year. Interrupted preseason to go with it including the minor quad issue. Past few years hes got and played through a few niggles.

JDG - Yet to see his fwd/mid split but I'm guessing it will be slightly favoured towards the midfield. Just a few question marks, especially now we may not get to see him in the preseason. A wait and see for mine. People also forget he has had a fair few injuries over the past few years.

None of these guys stand out to me as must get them in asap, there are multiple issues with all of them. JDG and Taranto are at the best ages and once we get a bit more info on them I can see those two coming in.

The 450k provide solid value and if you're not picking them, then its looking like higher risk mid pricers to fill the void.

Then there’s Dunkley who looks a lock if playing mainly mid.

Dunkley and Butters locked for me. Heeney, Thomas and even Weller are the others I’m considering depending how I structure up.

 

[manyproblems]

Then there’s Dunkley who looks a lock if playing mainly mid.

Dunkley and Butters locked for me. Heeney, Thomas and even Weller are the others I’m considering depending how I structure up.

I didn't mention Dunkley because he is F1 by the length of here to the moon. Can make a case for Weller but the soft tissue history is also there.

 

[Ben's Beasts]

I didn't mention Dunkley because he is F1 by the length of here to the moon. Can make a case for Weller but the soft tissue history is also there.

Yep, will be seriously tempted by Weller if he plays the same role during the NAB match as he did against Port.

A bit behind the other names I mentioned at this stage though.

 

[McLovin]

I didn't mention Dunkley because he is F1 by the length of here to the moon. Can make a case for Weller but the soft tissue history is also there.

For me the risk of Dunkley playing an undesirable forward role for parts of the season isn't a huge concern given his scoring potential when playing as a midfielder. The biggest question is how many games we expect him to miss, because he's only played an acceptable number in 2/6 seasons.

 

[manyproblems]

For me the risk of Dunkley playing an undesirable forward role for parts of the season isn't a huge concern given his scoring potential when playing as a midfielder. The biggest question is how many games we expect him to miss, because he's only played an acceptable number in 2/6 seasons.

Yeah it is a bit of a worry in terms of games played, much like Butters he dives on the ball and throws his body around. I guess over 3 years, he had two incidents, ankle got caught in a marking contest and bad contact to the shoulder going for a spoil which were lengthy outs. Given he went 130 with 47% mid time (pre injury) I think its madness to avoid him, the mid role was there in his preseason game, he doesn't need a lot to score.

 

[donnybuang]

This is true for the guys with genuine position changes or carrying a significant injury that will be there all season.

I would strongly warn against blanking on it though as the guys that are most dangerous are the names we're not considering right now because of preseason injuries that come back through the forwards, pick it up and then return to the midfield.

So for example, last year Tim English had quite clearly moved to a forward position and was going to stay there until Martin was gone (ultimately happened so not a perfect example).

At the same time though you had Kelly and Darcy as prime examples of guys who got injured and were managed through a pocket for a few weeks or eased back into the season before being unleashed to their natural position.

I'd say right now you've got Fyfe and Zorko who strongly stand out as guys who might be eased back in, averaging in the 90s but if they get their bodies right both are very capable of well north of 110 and would become game changing picks most likely.

Marshall another who can shift the range. Danger, Petracca and Bont are always threats.

I'd definitely be keeping a spot open until round 7 though, realistically F6 is probably the lowest point leak position on the field anyway so can afford to carry a rookie, especially if it's a Curnow type, a bit longer there to wait for the changes. Leaking 10 points at F1 from round 7 to about 14 when you can actually make the jump is significant if the only reason it's happening is a starting structure decision to not be flexible.

The other thing is that you're also closing yourself off to value picks by completing too early. It was actually one of my biggest takeaways last year as I did this too myself down back, having Cumming at D6 who was too good to upgrade over any fielded rookies but not good enough to keep and then 5 premiums meant I couldn't target guys like May or Daniel when they were bargains. Given the durability records up forward I don't think you can bet that none of the guys get hurt and become a lot cheaper.

Said it a few times, but this is a really weird season between balancing where the starting value/structure is pushing while not sacrificing flexibility and strategy in season!

Yeah, I'm not suggesting picking 6 keepers straight up. More that if your F4 is a value pick that becomes an F6 keeper at ~95, that's a good result.

 

[RIAL]

Looking at the names outside of Heeney/Butters/Thomas.

Duncan - Call it what it is, he's injury prone 30 year old with multiple interruptions in the preseason. Do we leave a slot for him open late in the season? We saw Whitfield not be at his best for the year with his poor preseason, and Danger was a bit up and down with his crap preseason. Worry about this after the bye but even then, I dont' trust him to stay on the park. Probably in the 100s somewhere after a few games back in.

Taranto - Probably a 95-100 guy, worry about him when Green comes back. The coach has already said he will play a bit forward so that marks him down. Seems a very likely upgrade target.

Treloar - Bont gave up his mid minutes and he has multiple calves and hamstring issues now. Probably 95-100 in that set up. His game was a good reminder of how much of a butcher he is which brings him down

Stringer - Groin issues with no timeline, pass

Dusty - Goes to sleep during multiple stages of the year. Interrupted preseason to go with it including the minor quad issue. Past few years hes got and played through a few niggles.

JDG - Yet to see his fwd/mid split but I'm guessing it will be slightly favoured towards the midfield. Just a few question marks, especially now we may not get to see him in the preseason. A wait and see for mine. People also forget he has had a fair few injuries over the past few years.

None of these guys stand out to me as must get them in asap, there are multiple issues with all of them. JDG and Taranto are at the best ages and once we get a bit more info on them I can see those two coming in.

The 450k provide solid value and if you're not picking them, then its looking like higher risk mid pricers, soft tissue riddled alternatives. dealing with leon camerons BS or putting up with dustys BS to fill the void.

Treloar played a dominant midfield role even before Bont gave up his midfield minutes.

He had 50% CBA in the grand final when the stakes were greater than ever.

 

[wogitalia]

Looking at the names outside of Heeney/Butters/Thomas.

Duncan - Call it what it is, he's injury prone 30 year old with multiple interruptions in the preseason. Do we leave a slot for him open late in the season? We saw Whitfield not be at his best for the year with his poor preseason, and Danger was a bit up and down with his crap preseason. Worry about this after the bye but even then, I dont' trust him to stay on the park. Probably in the 100s somewhere after a few games back in.

Taranto - Probably a 95-100 guy, worry about him when Green comes back. The coach has already said he will play a bit forward so that marks him down. Seems a very likely upgrade target.

Treloar - Bont gave up his mid minutes and he has multiple calves and hamstring issues now. Probably 95-100 in that set up. His game was a good reminder of how much of a butcher he is which brings him down

Stringer - Groin issues with no timeline, pass

Dusty - Goes to sleep during multiple stages of the year. Interrupted preseason to go with it including the minor quad issue. Past few years hes got and played through a few niggles.

JDG - Yet to see his fwd/mid split but I'm guessing it will be slightly favoured towards the midfield. Just a few question marks, especially now we may not get to see him in the preseason. A wait and see for mine. People also forget he has had a fair few injuries over the past few years.

None of these guys stand out to me as must get them in asap, there are multiple issues with all of them. JDG and Taranto are at the best ages and once we get a bit more info on them I can see those two coming in.

The 450k provide solid value and if you're not picking them, then its looking like higher risk mid pricers, soft tissue riddled alternatives. dealing with leon camerons BS or putting up with dustys BS to fill the void.

Let's be honest, when you're dipping into the bargain bin there's always a reason the player is in there.

This year even more so because even the #1 in Dunkley has strong negatives around him. Durability is at this point terrible, role can change in an instant and go way south.

This group is so volatile and you can make a very good for and against on every one of them, I can make a definitive reason to pick almost all the forward options and a definitive reason not to just as easily.

I'd bet good money that the forward starting picks will be the by far the most relevant starting picks this year Pick the 4 that stay on the park and score well and you're way ahead, get it wrong and it's sideways season!

 

[Eagling]

Dunkley is the guy you least worry about with injuries because he's proved he goes 130 and then gets injured at the end of the game.

 

[McLovin]

Yeah it is a bit of a worry in terms of games played, much like Butters he dives on the ball and throws his body around. I guess over 3 years, he had two incidents, ankle got caught in a marking contest and bad contact to the shoulder going for a spoil which were lengthy outs. Given he went 130 with 47% mid time (pre injury) I think its madness to avoid him, the mid role was there in his preseason game, he doesn't need a lot to score.

That's typically been my approach too. I changed my mind a bit after looking at the durability tables @Couch Coach posted. Dunkley's as bad or worse than Buddy, Greene, Wingard, Heeney, Stringer, Treloar and the rest of the noted injury risks. Unlike say Treloar who was very durable before succumbing to repeated soft tissue injuries, Dunkley just finds ways to gets injured and miss games. I wouldn't really blame his style of play either, he's hardly an extreme outlier like Mitch Robinson (who, incidentally, rarely gets injured). It's more like Fyfe's last few seasons, they just seem to attract lengthy injuries somehow.

 

[McLovin]

Let's be honest, when you're dipping into the bargain bin there's always a reason the player is in there.

This year even more so because even the #1 in Dunkley has strong negatives around him. Durability is at this point terrible, role can change in an instant and go way south.

This group is so volatile and you can make a very good for and against on every one of them, I can make a definitive reason to pick almost all the forward options and a definitive reason not to just as easily.

I'd bet good money that the forward starting picks will be the by far the most relevant starting picks this year Pick the 4 that stay on the park and score well and you're way ahead, get it wrong and it's sideways season!

My current approach is to pick 2 and load up on 200k-ish types because the group's so volatile and as you say strong cases can be made against all the candidates. Not sure if that's the smart play or a bit gun shy. Of course that's assuming the 200k-ish types do the job, but at least Curnow or Coniglio getting injured again is easier to take than someone I've invested a significant amount in.

 

[RIAL]

Yeah it is a bit of a worry in terms of games played, much like Butters he dives on the ball and throws his body around. I guess over 3 years, he had two incidents, ankle got caught in a marking contest and bad contact to the shoulder going for a spoil which were lengthy outs. Given he went 130 with 47% mid time (pre injury) I think its madness to avoid him, the mid role was there in his preseason game, he doesn't need a lot to score.

Let's be honest, when you're dipping into the bargain bin there's always a reason the player is in there.

This year even more so because even the #1 in Dunkley has strong negatives around him. Durability is at this point terrible, role can change in an instant and go way south.

This group is so volatile and you can make a very good for and against on every one of them, I can make a definitive reason to pick almost all the forward options and a definitive reason not to just as easily.

I'd bet good money that the forward starting picks will be the by far the most relevant starting picks this year Pick the 4 that stay on the park and score well and you're way ahead, get it wrong and it's sideways season!

Can I get some context regarding the Butters pick?

From what I've read he only attended 3 centre bounces for the game?

I get he did well as a half forward, but that's irrelevant if the reason of us picking him is that he plays through the midfield right? The most worrying part is that he isn't even ahead of someone like Amon in terms of midfield pecking order.

Midfield ranking right now is probably:
1. Wines
2. Boak
3. Drew
4. Amon
5. Butters
6. Rozee/SPP

Wines and Boak will be at most centre bounces, with Drew rotating with both of them. That means the 3rd spot is between Butters/Rozee/SPP/Amon. And if Amon is the preferred option for the 3rd "receiver" midfield role, then with what combination does Butters actually attend centre bounces?

In fact, from writing all of this I have convinced myself to take Butters out of my team. Welcome Adam Treloar.

 

[manyproblems]

Let's be honest, when you're dipping into the bargain bin there's always a reason the player is in there.

This year even more so because even the #1 in Dunkley has strong negatives around him. Durability is at this point terrible, role can change in an instant and go way south.

This group is so volatile and you can make a very good for and against on every one of them, I can make a definitive reason to pick almost all the forward options and a definitive reason not to just as easily.

I'd bet good money that the forward starting picks will be the by far the most relevant starting picks this year Pick the 4 that stay on the park and score well and you're way ahead, get it wrong and it's sideways season!

With Dunkley, I'm very confident the role only changes if he gets hurt. It will play out the same as at the start last year, fully fit again and will score heavy (already seen it in preseason game 1). He can score 25 below what he's capable of and is still a solid pick.

The reason I like Dunkley/Heeney/Butters over the others is because the risks with them are 90% if they cop a contact injury (chances are they get one at some point...). The others have multiple other issues. All of them can score without large CBAs which gives them a nice floor as well. I don't see role risk for them unless they play through an injury but that is subjective.

I agree though, forward line could end up like one of those horror movies where the people get taken out one by one, and just hope you have the ones who survive as long as possible.

 

[manyproblems]

Can I get some context regarding the Butters pick?

From what I've read he only attended 3 centre bounces for the game?

I get he did well as a half forward, but that's irrelevant if the reason of us picking him is that he plays through the midfield right? The most worrying part is that he isn't even ahead of someone like Amon in terms of midfield pecking order.

Midfield ranking right now is probably:
1. Wines
2. Boak
3. Drew
4. Amon
5. Butters
6. Rozee/SPP

Wines and Boak will be at most centre bounces, with Drew rotating with both of them. That means the 3rd spot is between Butters/Rozee/SPP/Amon. And if Amon is the preferred option for the 3rd "receiver" midfield role, then with what combination does Butters actually attend centre bounces?

In fact, from writing all of this I have convinced myself to take Butters out of my team. Welcome Adam Treloar.

I avoided the pick but last year because I was struggling to make sense of it, but watching him it opened my eyes a bit. He starts at HF and pushes up to plenty of stoppages. Once play opens up he's predominately around the ball. Butters tackles a lot and can do the in and under stuff, but also receives the ball because hes a great user. He nails some beauties going inside 50.

His CBAs should see an increase on last year, he's trained full midfield this year. He's shown an absurd ceiling and was the 4th ranked player (AFL ratings) in the league during the first month last year, and that's including an entire half he missed. Worth noting when he came back he had some nerve damage and said he couldnt walk properly for a while.

I'd put Butters 4th in terms of time on ball on that list and potentially 3rd. Would surprise me if they reduce Boak's minutes as well.

 

[freowho]

Can I get some context regarding the Butters pick?

From what I've read he only attended 3 centre bounces for the game?

I get he did well as a half forward, but that's irrelevant if the reason of us picking him is that he plays through the midfield right? The most worrying part is that he isn't even ahead of someone like Amon in terms of midfield pecking order.

Midfield ranking right now is probably:
1. Wines
2. Boak
3. Drew
4. Amon
5. Butters
6. Rozee/SPP

Wines and Boak will be at most centre bounces, with Drew rotating with both of them. That means the 3rd spot is between Butters/Rozee/SPP/Amon. And if Amon is the preferred option for the 3rd "receiver" midfield role, then with what combination does Butters actually attend centre bounces?

In fact, from writing all of this I have convinced myself to take Butters out of my team. Welcome Adam Treloar.

Isn't Treloar behind Macrae, Bont, Libba, and sharing with Dunkley and not as good a forward as Butters?
I think people are romanticising Treloars good football but if you go back through game day posts you'll find plenty of annoyed members ranting about how he could turn a 130 into a 100 game. At his peak and a first priority mid he was a 110 player. He is neither of those things now.