Position 2022: Forward Discussion
- Thread starter KLo30
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Most of the forwards are in that category. It's funny that a lot of the most durable guys are actually the hardest guys but then there are that group who just seem to manufacture injuries. Sadly Heeney and Butters are both very firm members of the group at this point also.
Honestly though, the whole group has pretty terrible durability and, perhaps ironically, the better durability guys on the list are all the guys carrying preseason injuries in!
You know what, it's actually a really strong option. As much as I love the value of the forwards and am underwhelmed by the value down back, once you take a step back and think about it, the reason there is value in the forwards is because they're all train wrecks and the reason there isn't in the backs is because they all basically played 22 games!
The top 15 forwards had 5 guys above 20 games last year and in a hilarious twice they're basically 4 of the 5 least picked players and then Taranto. 7 of them played less than 18 games.
10 of the top 15 played more than 20 games, Docherty the only one under 18 games.
The mids are even better.
It's not like there is a lack of options. I think cases can be made for all of Rayner, Curnow, McGovern, Coleman, Coniglio, Gresham, Crowden, Brodie, West and Ralphsmith without really even stretching it. I don't think the group is as strong as last year but they can do the job to varying degrees.
Will all depend on the rookies though!
On the flipside, he'll get a lot less attention now and can get some easier outside ball that might allow him to make easier kicks as well as having elite kickers to handball to instead of kicking in the first place. He wont most likely do either of those things but you can argue it.
Also 110 would be a must have but 100 would be a winning pick barring seriously explosive scoring way outside any reasonable projection from other forwards.
To be fair, not in my side and hasn't been yet, will probably take him in RDT where he's stronger.
The difference is if his role has changed then the numbers change. He's a genuine 110 guy as a midfielder, if he's not rotting away as the world's most overqualified forward pocket he's a much better player, especially for fantasy purposes.
I can say he's a guy who I haven't started since his Brownlow season and it's been the right call each season but this year he's already discounted, even with the crappy role although I do think some regression is reasonable to previous scoring in that role but if his role has changed, so must the expectations. Not dissimilar to Boak as a pick a couple of years back where he'd fallen back to 88 after a few years playing as a half forward but had clearly shifted back to his midfield role which has seen him go back to 105+ scoring. Now I'm not 100% confident he's making that shift, would love to see some kind of quote confirming it from leaders at the club, but if he is then it's a game changer.
If his role backs up, especially if they play a full strength team and look to use real rotations, then I'll pick him. The other factor with Martin is he's so popular, and will only get more so on the back of that game, that he could destroy your season if he does go back to 115+ or even 110+ and you don't have him. He's not like a Sidebottom or Wingard where you're behind 1% of people.
Honestly though, the whole group has pretty terrible durability and, perhaps ironically, the better durability guys on the list are all the guys carrying preseason injuries in!
You know what, it's actually a really strong option. As much as I love the value of the forwards and am underwhelmed by the value down back, once you take a step back and think about it, the reason there is value in the forwards is because they're all train wrecks and the reason there isn't in the backs is because they all basically played 22 games!
The top 15 forwards had 5 guys above 20 games last year and in a hilarious twice they're basically 4 of the 5 least picked players and then Taranto. 7 of them played less than 18 games.
10 of the top 15 played more than 20 games, Docherty the only one under 18 games.
The mids are even better.
It's not like there is a lack of options. I think cases can be made for all of Rayner, Curnow, McGovern, Coleman, Coniglio, Gresham, Crowden, Brodie, West and Ralphsmith without really even stretching it. I don't think the group is as strong as last year but they can do the job to varying degrees.
Will all depend on the rookies though!
On the flipside, he'll get a lot less attention now and can get some easier outside ball that might allow him to make easier kicks as well as having elite kickers to handball to instead of kicking in the first place. He wont most likely do either of those things but you can argue it.
Also 110 would be a must have but 100 would be a winning pick barring seriously explosive scoring way outside any reasonable projection from other forwards.
To be fair, not in my side and hasn't been yet, will probably take him in RDT where he's stronger.
The difference is if his role has changed then the numbers change. He's a genuine 110 guy as a midfielder, if he's not rotting away as the world's most overqualified forward pocket he's a much better player, especially for fantasy purposes.
I can say he's a guy who I haven't started since his Brownlow season and it's been the right call each season but this year he's already discounted, even with the crappy role although I do think some regression is reasonable to previous scoring in that role but if his role has changed, so must the expectations. Not dissimilar to Boak as a pick a couple of years back where he'd fallen back to 88 after a few years playing as a half forward but had clearly shifted back to his midfield role which has seen him go back to 105+ scoring. Now I'm not 100% confident he's making that shift, would love to see some kind of quote confirming it from leaders at the club, but if he is then it's a game changer.
If his role backs up, especially if they play a full strength team and look to use real rotations, then I'll pick him. The other factor with Martin is he's so popular, and will only get more so on the back of that game, that he could destroy your season if he does go back to 115+ or even 110+ and you don't have him. He's not like a Sidebottom or Wingard where you're behind 1% of people.
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‘Bit of a buzz around him’: Tigers star warns Dusty set to become AFL ‘bull’ again
https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/te...w/news-story/88ffd0f9c8a918dbed9c91c8fc05d333
https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/te...w/news-story/88ffd0f9c8a918dbed9c91c8fc05d333
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Does anyone know the TOG of Weller in the preseason game? Still unsure on Weller vs Butters vs Treloar atm.
The Jack Bowes seagull role is highly lucrative even for half the season. If Weller is even half competent he should be averaging 100+ in probably the easiest role in the game.
26 disposals is not good enough for 4 quarters, and 100% not sufficient for a preseason game. If it was on reduced game time then that's probably acceptable.
The Jack Bowes seagull role is highly lucrative even for half the season. If Weller is even half competent he should be averaging 100+ in probably the easiest role in the game.
26 disposals is not good enough for 4 quarters, and 100% not sufficient for a preseason game. If it was on reduced game time then that's probably acceptable.
Interesting, assuming you are trying to highlight the lack of correlation between pre-season performance and actual output?
Mostly agree, although for speculative picks like Weller, you really want all the data you can get, regardless of the quality of information. And only if everything aligns perfectly in the player's favour, then you take a chance on him ahead of more proven players with clearly defined caveats for success (Treloar).
Mostly agree, although for speculative picks like Weller, you really want all the data you can get, regardless of the quality of information. And only if everything aligns perfectly in the player's favour, then you take a chance on him ahead of more proven players with clearly defined caveats for success (Treloar).
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I need to see how well Weller goes next week and how they use him before I feel any confidence in him. Should be taking most of their kick outs and being used as their main distributor.
I got burnt badly last year trying to be cute with cheap "keepers" like Tom Phillips and Hunter Clark, and Weller has that same stink about him.
I got burnt badly last year trying to be cute with cheap "keepers" like Tom Phillips and Hunter Clark, and Weller has that same stink about him.