Discussion 2022 AFL: Practice Matches & AAMI Community Series Discussion

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Oh yeah the other HBFs are a concern; just that between JDavey talking about ACLs in this video
View: https://youtu.be/zB9_I0Gy77I
I believe and thinking of similarities to Docherty in 2020 when we had someone come back from a similar injury. Of course it's not exactly the same as Docherty had two but Docherty also had a lot higher pedigree than Sicily does.
Sicily has come back after 18 months, they've been extremely cautious, so shouldn't have any issues.

Docherty was fine until they changed his position to the wing and he struggled. More comparable to NicNat in 2020 return length where he was back to his best.

There are definitely guys who struggle but if Sicily isn't confident in it after an extra 9 months he never will be.


Look I rarely break in to the top 10k overall so don't think I know what I'm doing.
If it makes you feel better, I've often got inside that and I still don't think I have a clue what I'm doing :LOL:

That's the nature of this beast!

One thing I have learned is that fading the ultra popular guys is the quickest path to being outside the top 10k as it's a very common theme in my worst seasons!

Nah Neale is way ahead of Sicily; was one of the most durable players for years (up in the air whether 2021 changed that) as well as being both a premium scorer for years before breaking out again twice in 2019 and 2020.
Neale is example 150 million in the "bad preseasons lead to injuries" case study. Hopefully he'll be another fine example in the good preseasons prevent injuries as well!

Alternatively he joins the long list of ultra durable guys who fall apart but hopefully not!

Some good discussion going on here. Think have views and keeping an open mind on these topics is the key.

ACLs have a history of limited players by 10%, however, Sicily is no midfielder and it sounds like his intercepting skills haven't been impacted. One factor can be TOG% which needs to be built up.

The issue around other players in the side is a concern too. Also, Sicily has in the past been targeting and his hot head comes into action. A guy who gave a 5 free kicks this week alone suggests the time out of the game only led to increase emotion for Sic dog.

Think the point of being undervalue is important and for me the way to o***et it if I dont pick him, is to get value elsewhere. Stewart when injured didn't put in a low score, so he is no help. Arguably there is a number of premium defenders who may offer value for various reasons and I would be targeting them. Ridley, Short are some that others are looking at. Value in forwards is fine, although, others may have those as well.

I will watch him this week and make a final call. Between Whitfield and Sicily it feels like Whitfield has the better role. Also worth noting Sicily has been out of the game for a long time and rules have changed. The interceptors still seem to be going ok, and Sicily if he retains kicks outs will gain that rule which changed since he was out (I think that was 2020), may help his scoring too.
FWIW I think Sicily's role is better than Whitfield's. Both are rebounding defenders but Sicily also intercepts.

Of course Sicily has another 35 guys all vying for the rebound chances as well while the Giants are a lot more focused.

My reasoning between Whitfield and Sicily is that Whitfield has the potential to be the #1 ranked defender at the end of the year, Sicily doesn't.
I'd say there's a real case where Sicily is the top defender, I'd just say it's longer odds than Whitfield. Both are 110+ capable, it's just a lot more has to go right for Sicily but the Hawks should be really ordinary so he should have a lot of intercept chances as well and probably a higher volume of kick-ins as well.

They're that weird pair where I feel like I'm picking them for the wrong reasons and yet I feel very exposed if I don't pick them!
 
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They're that weird pair where I feel like I'm picking them for the wrong reasons and yet I feel very exposed if I don't pick them!
The problem I keep having with the Whitfield and Sicily types is that there seem to be some pretty bankable options at the top end of the def line, which would take Whitfield and Sicily's absolute best to beat. Being pretty conservative I get something like:
Lloyd: 22/105
Crisp: 22/103
Dawson: 22/103
Stewart: 20/103

Short/Heppel/Ridley and Dale are all likely to be about 100 for one or two games missed as well.

What do we put Sicily at, very best case? 18/105 maybe? If he averages any less it looks even worse, which seems very possible.

Whitfield seems to have a smaller variance perhaps, but 19/103 seems more than fair, which still puts him on the edge I think.

The only upside is the cash saved right? If I can get by without needing it, I think I'll go that way.
 
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The problem I keep having with the Whitfield and Sicily types is that there seem to be some pretty bankable options at the top end of the def line, which would take Whitfield and Sicily's absolute best to beat. Being pretty conservative I get something like:
Lloyd: 22/105
Crisp: 22/103
Dawson: 22/103
Stewart: 20/103

Short/Heppel/Ridley and Dale are all likely to be about 100 for one or two games missed as well.

What do we put Sicily at, very best case? 18/105 maybe? If he averages any less it looks even worse, which seems very possible.

Whitfield seems to have a smaller variance perhaps, but 19/103 seems more than fair, which still puts him on the edge I think.

The only upside is the cash saved right? If I can get by without needing it, I think I'll go that way.
For Whitfield you're probably looking at a 35 - 40% chance Whitfield plays 22 games and scores 110, which makes him roughly $100k underpriced.

Has played 2 full seasons in the last 4 (I've given 2020 less weight given it was a shorter year).

To break even with other premiums, the maximum number of games Whitfield is allowed to miss is roughly 2 games.
 
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The problem I keep having with the Whitfield and Sicily types is that there seem to be some pretty bankable options at the top end of the def line, which would take Whitfield and Sicily's absolute best to beat. Being pretty conservative I get something like:
Lloyd: 22/105
Crisp: 22/103
Dawson: 22/103
Stewart: 20/103

Short/Heppel/Ridley and Dale are all likely to be about 100 for one or two games missed as well.

What do we put Sicily at, very best case? 18/105 maybe? If he averages any less it looks even worse, which seems very possible.

Whitfield seems to have a smaller variance perhaps, but 19/103 seems more than fair, which still puts him on the edge I think.

The only upside is the cash saved right? If I can get by without needing it, I think I'll go that way.
I’ve always said you can only pick 1 because all the talent in defence. And Whitfield is differently the better pick. Sicily has so many other players who do the intercept role now than a few years ago when he was the main man. I don’t think he even takes kickins as much alwell. 90-95 ave as very best.
 
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Sicily has come back after 18 months, they've been extremely cautious, so shouldn't have any issues.

I'd say there's a real case where Sicily is the top defender, I'd just say it's longer odds than Whitfield. Both are 110+ capable, it's just a lot more has to go right for Sicily but the Hawks should be really ordinary so he should have a lot of intercept chances as well and probably a higher volume of kick-ins as well.

They're that weird pair where I feel like I'm picking them for the wrong reasons and yet I feel very exposed if I don't pick them!
For me there's no chance - he's never gone over 105, he played 2 full seasons, he's coming off an ACL, there's more points up for grabs in the Hawks backline than ever before with Scrimshaw and others, his role, whilst looking locked down back is still not a given for the year, he'll likely miss games due injury/suspension so it's a hard case to press. Just don't see it here personally.

I think he's a good pick and he may come into my team but at this stage my structure doesn't cater for him.
 
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So, interestingly, just played around with the backline and moved Lloyd and Dawson to Ridley and Sicily to see if the coin does provide any real improvements on my team and the money does allow me to move a Curnow to a Hewett/Weller or Stephens to a Rowell - do I like this, maybe and it does present some new options to think about through the pre-season.
 
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Curnow vs. Brodie for F6 is going to be an interesting choice, especially as Curnow jarred his knee and Brodie attended a lot of CBAs, albeit freo missing a some mids. Priced exactly the same at $224.3k
 
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Curnow vs. Brodie for F6 is going to be an interesting choice, especially as Curnow jarred his knee and Brodie attended a lot of CBAs, albeit freo missing a some mids. Priced exactly the same at $224.3k
I'm suss on both and they've been filling F6 for a while, tempted to find a few more $ an slot McGovern in. Or drop down to McCartin.
 
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I'd be really curious to see what he would've scored. I know SC loves contested ball but if he couldn't put together 110+ off that effort, it's going to be a long year for anyone with him (currently including me).
18 Disposals and 7 tackles - not sure what the contested rate was or his DE so wild guess looking at his previous history I'd expect 95-105 - I'd probably be happy with that. Not sure what his TOG was either
 
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So, interestingly, just played around with the backline and moved Lloyd and Dawson to Ridley and Sicily to see if the coin does provide any real improvements on my team and the money does allow me to move a Curnow to a Hewett/Weller or Stephens to a Rowell - do I like this, maybe and it does present some new options to think about through the pre-season.
Well, you've just made your team worse to... make your team worse.
 

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Curnow vs. Brodie for F6 is going to be an interesting choice, especially as Curnow jarred his knee and Brodie attended a lot of CBAs, albeit freo missing a some mids. Priced exactly the same at $224.3k
Honestly think I'll pick Brodie over him if he keeps that mid role with a full strength Freo this weekend.
 
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